How we picked a $130 winner and no ‘expert’ gave it a chance.

How did they miss it?

The so called experts all overlooked the horse with not a single mention by anyone significant in the racing industry.. so how did we identify a $130 (Betfair price we got matched at) winner?

We will start off by saying we missed it in our write up. When it gets to the later races in the day and you have been out the night before getting home at 3am, you are rushing to get your write up on the website and you overlook the majority of horses with $100 prices on them. Racing isn’t our life. My website partner and I both have full-time jobs in the corporate world and sports are our passions. We can’t sit there on a Friday from 1pm-5pm doing our form, it is done after a 50 hour week in the office.
All I can do is say i’m sorry to the regular readers for not giving that race as much of a look as expected. I must admit it was due to a partly valid biased few of Folding Gear and Testacana who gave beautiful runs the week before. Testacana was put up as second best bet and made best bet due to the ground before the jump on twitter.

If it makes you feel better, we had the other 3 winners of the quaddie in our write up discussion and had a ticket with all of it for 100% without Dance with Her. If we identified it, it would have paid $33,000. So you can sit there knowing it cost us as well

So into the statistics of the horse.

I have included the Skyracing form below and outlined the key runners in the race with recent form. There are 5 in blue who we gave chances to (didn’t include Chasm in the write up) and Dance With Her who obviously won. It is interesting to see that NO horse coming into this race had won their last race. This pretty much never happens in such a race and was a big factor.

So what did Dance with Her have going for her? The number one statistic that drew us into looking at her was the Class EQ/STR on the top right. She had run 3 placings in 4 starts in this class. That is a massive stat for a horse running at $130. The other VERY important stat is that the horse is coming back from a 4 month spell.
Add to that it prefers a ground that is wet.. and the ground was on the slowish side of dead, the stats on the surface play to the horse. The horse is a frontish runner so we knew it would be in the perfect position for this race with swoopers disadvantaged. Add to that the light 54kg and you had some good stats. 2 wins 4 placings from 11 starts is also another good strike rate.
Finally, you look at the recent form. Last 15 starts for the horse had 4 races and only missed a place in 3 of those. When you consider the horse was in need of a spell at the end of a VERY long run, you excuse those last two runs and say WOW at the stats. Noonan was also a very handy booking in my eyes. Finally, 1 win from 2 starts at the track suggests it goes ok on the track.
The last thing you need to know is we have been following this horse for a long time. Absolutely love the horse so that’s why we re-checked it pre-race.

So what price should the horse have been at? If it was $20, we would have paid some serious attention to it and i suggest others might have also. It’s strange that a good horse at a large price like $100s is given 0 hope just because of the odds.

You won’t find anything like this for a very long time with such good form at this price, but at least you now know what to look out for.

Did you miss the run? Watch it here.