UFC 165 presents a solid card where we see Jon ‘Bones’ Jones takes on Alexander Gustafsson in the main event. No one is expecting an upset unlike we say in the Silva fight, but stranger things have happened in recent times. I have previewed the five main card events below and using the statistics given you my verdict on who will win and the betting options I feel are value. This should become a regular segment for all main events going forward. Good luck and enjoy the fights!

Alexander Gustafsson vs Jon ‘Bones’ Jones

Jon Jones comes into this the $1.14 favourite on Betfair and all the statistics suggest Gustafsson is up against it today and needs to get very lucky. Based on previous experience and the fact this will be 5 rounds, it is highly unlikely Gustafsson will be able to stick it out with the experienced Jones who is used to going that distance and with his takedown power, should be able to control the match and get a stopage.

Jon Jones
His last three years in the UFC have been explosive. Not only has he never been beaten in the striking game… no opponent has even gone close. Jones hasn’t been taken down in his last 13 matches and takes down his opponents when he wants. Only one of his last 10 matches have gone to the decision with four by KO, four by submission and 1 DQ outside of that decision.

Alexander Gustafsson
Dominated both his two previous fights in the UFC to get this fight with decision wins over Rua and Silva with a signficantly strike advantage and ground domination. Interestingly his two previous matches were won by KO and previous two to that by Submission… with his only loss coming to Davis in a R1 Submission after being taken down.

Verdict
Jon Jones will win this by KO or Submission.

Betting
LAY Jon Jones win by Dec / Tech Dec at $6.00

Renan Barao VS Eddie Wineland

You won’t be shocked to hear that Barao comes into this fight as the $1.18 favourite. This does look a miss-match and some have questioned how Wineland is even being given this shot. I agree with those people.

Renen Barao
Lands a large number of strikes in his fights and hasn’t been outstruck in his last 7 matches. While he has never landed a Ko, he is always in control of the match. With 4 submissions and 3 decision wins, it seems save to say he loves a battle.
Barao is very hard to take down, having defended 95% of all takedowns to date. When he decides he wants to take people down, he does so with ease and passes with no issues at all, normally submitting his opponents.

Eddie Wineland
Wineland comes into this having not fought since 2012 beating Brad Pickett. He has won his last two after having a bad run losing to Faber and Benavidez in Decisions (he was way down on all scores). His last two wins showed that his standup had improved significantly and he will really be tested today by Barao. His take down defense is solid enough with a 80% total takedowns avoided.
In his loss to Faber in 2011, he was taken down twice during the 3 round match which may be a big weakness.

Verdict
Barao by Submission or Decision

Betting
LAY Barao by KO/TKO at $4.80

Brendan Schaub VS Matt Mitrione

Two ‘up and commers’ whose futures will be shaped by this match-up. The money is VERY even with Mitrione the slight favourite on Betfair.

Brendan Schaub
Soft decision win last match over Johnston coming off two first round TKO’s. Previous to that he won four fights in a row by KO or Decision. His last two wins saw him take down his opponents and lay on them to pull out a decision or KO and Mitrione looks like an opponent he can take down with ease.

Matt Mitrione
Having won five fights from 2009 through to 2011, Mitrione came undone against some of the best in the group with a KO loss to Roy Nelson and a clear decision loss to Kongo. He returned in April with a very early Round 1 KO of Phil De Fries and comes into this full of confidence looking to knock Schaubs head off.
His takedown avoidance figures are a worry with just 57% and having been taken down in most of his previous fights.
Stand and strike is his game.

Verdict
Mitrione

Betting
Mitrione by KO

Costa Philippou VS Francis Carmont

Both of these guys come in off five wins in a row and one of them will get the win today. The money is all with Philippou who is $1.54 favourite.

Costa Philippou
A strong guy who likes to let his hands go, Philippou isn’t known for his subs but if given the chance will give them a go. His takedown avoidance is 83% which is solid enough and he has knockout power in his hands. Expect him to try and make this a standing match.

Francis Carmont
Having won his last two by Decision, Carmont is good with taking opponents down and has a strong 86% takedown avoidance rate. His two others wins in the streak were by submission. He is an ok striker.. but his strengths are more on the ground.

Verdict
Philippou

Betting
Philippou by Dec/ Tech Dec

Pat Healy VS Khabib Nurmagomedov

We have the Veteran Pat Healy (ranked 10th) vs the up and commer in Khabib Nurmagomedov (try saying that outloud!!!). Healy comes into this with a 7-fight win streak (last fight overturned after he tested positive to weed) while Khabib is undefeated.

Pat Healy
Happy to strike all day but loves to take an opponent down and grind out a Decision victory or lock in a submission. Doesn’t score KOs or get KOed. Takedown defense is a big worry!

Khabib Nurmagomedov
Can do it all. 21 takedowns in 3 rounds with 2 sub attempts and 3 passes.. dominated last match. Previous fight did score a KO but not expecting that today. He is good with Submissions and it comes down to those two ways of finishing.

Verdict
Nurmagomedov by Submission / Decision

Betting
LAY Nurmagomedov by KO / TKO at $4.20

Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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