Welcome to The Profits form guide for Derby Day at Flemington on Saturday 2 November 2013. A quick word of advice for anyone heading on track… get your bets on for the first five races before you go. You really just don’t know how the on-track Wi-Fi will hold up with an expected 100,000 people on track… not to mention it isn’t clear exactly which bookies are banned from being used on the Wi-Fi. Not too great for integrity hey? I found last year there was a ‘sweet spot’ for 3/4G if you go up the stairs up past the station towards the food area.. the top of that hill. Get all those bets on with Betfair SP or Fixed Odds (Bet365 is a good product for this also giving you the fixed at the time or the best jump price if it drifts). Onto the races! Well we are certainly spoiled with a significant number of Group races on offer. That means as always we will get a lot of promos from the various bookies including double fixed odds. Take advantage of these and please consider going with Topsport. The money back special has made my early part of this Spring carnival very profitable as it has allowed a different approach. As always, take careful note of how the track is playing and listen for track walking advice before you head on in on Twitter and radio. As always, I hope your form matches up with mine. I will be on course from a few races in and will be tweeting from the yard. Good luck and happy punting!
Best Bet
Flemington Race 9 Galah
Next Best
Flemington Race 7 Red Tracer
Best Value
Flemington Race 5 Moriarty
Lay of the Day
Flemington Race 8 Steps In Time to Place
Best Place Bet
Flemington Race Race 5 Pakal
Flemington Quaddie
Leg One: 1, 2, 3, 6
Leg Two: 1, 2, 4, 5, 11, 12
Leg Three: 4, 8, 12, 15, 16
Leg Four: 1, 3, 8, 10
*Betfair are giving a 50% Quaddie Boost at Moonee Valley today
Promotions
A quick summary of all the key promotion on offer around the bookies.
Topsport
MONEY BACK if your runner finishes 2nd or 3rd in ANY race on 8 race days throughout the Spring Carnival (maximum $100). *Important* You CAN bet more than one horse per race and they will refund more than one horse if you run 2nd and 3rd.
www.topsport.com.au
Betfair
50% Flemington Quaddie Boost (maximum bonus of $250)
Money Back if you run 2nd, 3rd or 4th in the VRC Derby and the Lexus Stakes ($25 max) on their Tote Extra (Best of 5) product.
http://betfair.com.au/promotions
Ladbrokes
Double Fixed Odds on the VRC Derby (maximum $50 bet). At time of posting Savvy Nature is currently $4.60 enhanced to $9.20. Complacent is $6.50 enhanced to $13 and San Diego is $7 enhanced to $14.
www.ladbrokes.com.au
Betstar
Double Fixed Odds on 4 Group 1 races today (maximum $50 bet). Bets need to be placed between 11-11.30 for Coolmore Stud, 11.30-12 for Mackinnon, 12.30-1 for Derby and 1-1.30 for Myer Classic. #paininthearsebutworthit. Worth noting that any money won in this race has T&C associated with it which requires a turn over now. This was implemented last week it seems.
www.betstar.com.au
Sportsbet
Paying out 4 places in the Victoria Derby. Maximum 4th place payout of $300.
www.sportsbet.com.au
Centrebet
Place a win bet in any race at Flemington and if your horse runs second to the favourite, Centrebet will refund your bet up to $100.
www.centrebet.com
Sportingbet
20% Quaddie Bonus on your first Quaddie at Flemington. (Maximum of $500 as per T&Cs) and bonus funds require X1 turnover.
www.sportingbet.com.au
Luxbet
Paying out the Bookies Best Price on the Victoria Derby then adding 10% to it.
www.luxbet.com
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters Paradise – http://www.puntersparadise.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means a speculation pick.
Flemington Race 1
Paximadia: 2.5kg better off today against Hucklebuck off what was simply an ignore run. Look to two back run and he comes in very well here. Maps to get a sit today which should prove the difference for mine. Big chance.
Hucklebuck: Progressive type who was suited by an on-pace bias last start. Seems to be wanting the extra 200m. Maps well once again but issue is the jockey and giving up 2.5kg to Paximadia today. Shouldn’t be this short.
Champollion: Weighted better today against Hucklebuck and Paximadia but was beaten by both the last two runs. Needs to find another gear. Is the step up in distance the key? Not sure.
Equator: Maps to lead this up or sit outside the leader today. Down in weight today and back in class. Last time in this class ran a close 3rd at Randwick while losing a plate. Down 4kg from that run. Last start 3L behind Complacent and finished close enough to horses such as Savvy Nature. Go close.
Best Case: Hasn’t measured up to this class recently. Has run well over distance but looks outclassed.
I Am Titanium: Weighted ok today. 3 back finished 0.3L behind Hucklebuck at MV, next start 1L behind Paximadia and is down 1kg today while Pax is at same weight… last start not suited by track. Blowout chance.
No Equivalent: Not going anywhere near well enough to win this. Maiden winner.
Saintly Lad: Weighted poorly when you consider ran in same race as Equator last start and equator is 3kg better off today and beat him home.
Comments: Hucklebuck is too short and poorly weighted. Very willing to take him on here. The 3 favs are all positioned out front and could set a furious tempo to set it up for I Am Titanium.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Paximadia is the clear top pick at weights while I Am Titanium is a massive price and overs.
Flemington Race 2
Gypsy Diamond: Big improvement last start to run down and beat Gregers at MV… but how good is that form? The race was fairly poor by Group standards and this looks better on paper. Will be coming form the back. A hope.
Arabian Gold: Back to best last start on a dead track but may just simply get it good again today. Looks better to be at 1400-1600m but can run well at 2000m. Maps to have every chance and go close.
May’s Dream: There has been a massive word around about this horse and she went very well behind Guelph last start. Will well and truly be suited by the Flemington straight and have every chance down 1.5kg today. The one to beat.
Solicit: Stayed on strongly at Caulfield last start and won 2 of last 3 runs including a huge late dive at course two back to finish 3rd. Maps for a sit today instead of leading and could go VERY close.
Wordplay: Nice horse but has gone backwards the last few starts. Not sure the distance increase suits.
Star Fashion: Ran well enough last start but was by far worst run. Not sure she was suited by the extra distance. Doesn’t have the heart on two back run when should have won but didn’t.
Kirramosa: Progressive type who looks a little outmatched in this class.
Every Faith: Another who ran on well the last two starts without threatening.
Refer: Never won a race but ran on well last start. Probably finds a few too good again.
Melaleuca: Big run to finish close enough last start. Could be closing hard late. Early speed would help alot.
Tear Gas: Maiden only winner. Not progressive enough.
Savannah Moon: Couldn’t win average maidens. Not in this.
Comments: A battle of the top 4. You should have a little judge of how the track is playing from the first race. Use this to your advantage.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: May’s Dream on top from Solicit who looks over the odds and a big chance.
Flemington Race 3
Ethiopia: First up run was only fair when had every chance then next two starts poor at best. Hard to see winning on those runs.
Kelinni: Not going as well as last prep. Down in class today and at best distances, but did have 9 others beat him home in the cup and others are better in at weights today it seems.
Julienas: Take the form with a grain of salt. Simply strike off last start when did way too much early and then got pushed back and just wasn’t suited by the race tempo. Little to no speed in the race barring one runner wider than him so should get across easy enough and be very hard to run down at the weights considering the Group 3 win three runs back and 2nd in Group 1 two back to Seville who has been well backed in the Cup.
My Quest For Peace: Not going well enough this prep. Not for me.
Moudre: Every chance last few runs and proved not good enough. First up run was solid but nothing since has been any good. No thanks.
Araldo: Star Rolling form is solid from two back with a big run and then last start outstayed Sea Moon over the 2520m distance (won in a protest fairly). Huge form lines and if trained on then will go very close. Only issue is speed in race.
Ironstein: Love this horse but sent heavily backwards last start at Randwick. Didn’t find anything with no excuses. Down in weights where the horse is suited and did run Seville to within 0.8L 2 back. Maps well enough but will need luck.
Bass Strait: Slowly away and outclassed last start at Caulfield but did run on well enough. This does look a better field than last start but if produces the Four back run would run over them. Could be value.
Kingdoms: Treated poorly at the weights today. Good win last start but couldn’t have at weights.
Let’s Make ADeal: Very big run last start when galloped on and almost fell over during the run. Weighted 3kg better off today against Araldo and maps to sit further forward. Big chance.
Vaquera: Running well this prep but not good enough for this on previous form.
Motivado: Very poor last few runs. Couldn’t have.
Garud: Beaten by a few in this race the last few runs and from the barrier will need luck to get a run. Need luck to win.
Ruscello: Big win first up and is looking for further. Is he good enough? Weighted well enough.
Comments: Very open race. A few stand out at the prices though.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Three bets in this race for me. Let’s Make ADeal on top JUST from Bass Straight then Julienas.
Flemington Race 4
Zoustar: Toyed with them in the Golden Rose coming form the back. Last start smashed a handy field including Barbed who ran close to Savvy Nature and Complicate last start. IF he handles the straight track then should be winning. Question also.. did he peak already? Waller saying not.
Sidestep: Last start run solid from the back and will be doing the same again today. Not sure he has the class to run ZOu down.
Fast ‘N’ Rocking: Last two runs been VERY disappointing. Not sure he is this classy.
Divine Calling: 2nd to Long John last start and BEAT the cox plate winner over 1600m two back. Back to 1200m today is certainly an interesting drop down in weights but has run very well over this distance in the past. Ran Zoustar last prep to 1L over 1300m. Can sit behind one of the leaders and be let go at the right time.. could get a jump on Zoustar and be very hard to run down.
Lion of Belfort: Won 3 in a row but looks to have found his match today. Could still run well though and place.
Eclair Big Bang: Last start was poor when lost a plate and then failed due to track (not really an excuse for mine). Two back won off a slow tempo and leader bias. Beaten by Charlie Boy down this straight three back. Not for me.
Thermal Current: Good win last start over Not Listenintome but either horses rate best in this race for mine.
Not Listenin’tome: Got beaten at the shorts last start and isn’t good enough to win this.
Missy Longstocking: The huge questionmark of the race. Last start win was MASSIVE at Caulfield when sat wide and won by a casual 3L beating a solid horse in Anatina. Down 2.5kg today which makes her sectionals look very solid. Big chance.
Villa Verde: Few things went wrong last start but should run much better today. 1/1 at the track but others look better.
Thump: Won two of last three over distance and has placed at track previously. Going very well and will be positioning out the front. Hard to pass!
Comments: Wouldn’t blame you to take the shorts for Zoustar here. I can just never take a horse, even a superstar, at this price to win down the straight first time.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Missy Longstocking on top from Divine Calling. My strategy will involve smallish bets on these two and a saver on Zoustar. Comes up a profitable long-term play in my books every time.
Flemington Race 5
Mourayan: Not going well enough to win this on last two runs.
Mr Moet: Stuck on very well from a position closer to the speed in the Caulfield Cup. Back up to 59kg is the issue but up to distances that he prefers. Long straight should suit well enough. Can run well and barrier 5 means a good position in running.
Side Glance: Ran on well enough last start in the Cox Plate but considering he was in the speed lane off a slowish tempo he shouldn’t have fell of the way he did. Never won from 7 tries at this distance and only 1 win in this class from 14. No thanks.
Solzhenitsyn: Big win last start at Caulfield but is he really a WFA-G1 2000m horse? Huge queries about this. Never placed from 2 tries at the distance.
Moriarty: Sat dead last and flew home in the Caulfield Cup. Was 2L last at the turn behind Hawkspur and finished next to him on the line after having to weave through trafic 3-4 times. Won’t be getting anywhere near that far back today and gets the straight for every chance. Just go watch his run again. You will be a believer.
Jet Away: Two back ran well enough behind Happy Trails in the turnbull and then last start some say the early move cost the win. I thought it was the correct move with the pace slowed, it just didn’t work out. He wasn’t out sprinting Fawkner IMO. Massive issue today with the barrier 1. Boss will want to get off the rail considering the position he will be entering the straight (out the back). Looks very short for mine.
Pakal: Absolutely BLEW them away on a dead track last start and back to a Good track today hopefully should see even bigger improvement. Sertorious win easily on Wednesday which backs up the form. The long straight should suit also and barrier is perfect.
Hvasstan: Good win last start, not good enough at weights to win this.
Dear Demi: Better at weights than a few here but certainly had the run of the race last start. Won’t take the rails run today and will be given the room required. Is she the best horse in this race?
Comments: Very hard race on paper but I am bullish about two runners and taking on the Fav once again.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Pakal to win from Moriarty. Very hard to split these two and Moriarty is CRAZY overs.
Flemington Race 6
Criterion: Maps out the back today and if you remember back to last year, out the back is a LONG way back. Off last start run is a chance today.
Complacent: Awkward outside barrier but jumps well and can get across into a nice 1/1 position hopefully. If gets a position similar to this is every chance today and will be VERY hard to chase down. Long straight is a bonus.
Savvy Nature: Very strong run last start at MV which was a warm up for this. Been beaten the last two times by Complacent and will sit very far back. Needs the pace on early and late.
Polanski: Tough win last start off a strong tempo out front. Weighted nicely today also. One of the hopes.
Drago: Not going well enough this prep to consider.
San Diego: Very very strong 2nd last start off a very fast pace out front. Barrier 6 means he can get the lead with ease if he wants it or elect to ake a sit today. Form suggests he is wanting the 2500m.
Honey Steel’s Gold: Three back run behind Divine Calling appeals but last two runs no where near good enough.
Tips and Beers: Not going to go close on form.
Epic Saga: Has to find lengths on these. Can’t see it.
Tupac Amaru: Could run a gutsy race if goes further forward today from barrier 8. Still can’t see winning.
Pinstripe Lane: Ran on well enough last start but this is significantly harder and can’t see him beating them all down.
Throw The King: Not good enough.
Thunder Fantasy: Ran on ok last start but really can’t see beating these.
Surging Wave: Consistent runner who is outclassed.
Famechon: Rate on two back run and has some hope… but still can’t see winning. Would be shocked!
Bring Something: Sitting too far back for mine. Many better in race from back there.
Comments: Keen on two who map out the front here today.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 2, 3, 6
Strategy: San Diego on top from Complacent. Saver on Savvy Nature just to be sure.
Flemington Race 7
Red Tracer: How good is she? Can she run out the 1600m? Has never placed at track from 2 tries and has never won at distance from 8 tries which isn’t the best record… but has certainly gone close. Weighted 4kg better off today against Sharnee Rose which is important and gains 1kg on Fire Up Fifi from last start also strangely. Looks a good price today.
Fire Up Fifi: You can say ignore last start when was too far back and came home hard.. but was still 4.5L off the winner. Will appreciate the longer straight today, no doubt, but is she that much better?
Catkins: Never runs a bad race this mare having run 2nd, 2nd, 1st, 2nd and 1st this prep including twice at this track. Down in weight today but up in class of horses. Big chance once again.
Sharnee Rose: Very progressive with two very strong runs last two runs. Will be treated well by the long straight again but that weight push with Red Tracer may be the killer blow. Go close.
Xanadu: Overraced but still sat out the back and didn’t show anything last start. Is a proven WFA-G1 horse over in NZ but hard to back on last start. Have to include in quaddies.
Bonaria: Ran on well last start behind Zonza and goes well at track but will need a lot of luck from barrier most likely hugging the rail. Has the ability.
Zurella: Went out the back first up and ran on ok without showing too much. Up in distance suits but needs further it seems.
Thy: Good win first up then gone heavily backwards since. Can’t see even though 2 wins from 3 at distance. Never placed at track.
Ava’s Delight: Missed the start by 3L last start and then ran on very well. 3kg worse off today against Red Tracer is the key and that hurts.
You’re So Good: Not going well enough.
Floria: Has been running well and has form around Red tracer where took her very close last prep. First up run was unlucky not to beat British General. This race is much harder though but should improve 2nd up.
Molto Bene: There is certainly enough speed on today to suggest she gets her chance. Just wasn’t suited by the track and was worked up last start. Forgive run and look to two back when amazing. Can win if produces career best.
Cameo: 5kg worse off today against Catkins. Can’t win on that alone.
Zonza: Good win first up and up 2kg today in harder company. Giving 3kg to Bonaria. Maps to go out the front but this is MUCH harder today.
Comments: Another tough race with many chances but two stand out.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 2, 4, 5, 11, 12
Strategy: Red Tracer to win from Molto Bene.
Flemington Race 8
Spirit of Boom: Finally broke through for a win last start down the outside which wasn’t playing very well for most of the sprint races all day. Goes well down the straight and could go very close.
Hot Snitzel: Very disappointing first up when seemed to have every chance. No thanks.
Fat Al: Sat back first up but ran on well enough. Needs to improve again though.
Fontelina: Ran very well first up this prep down the straight and then last start in Group 1 over the 1400m was beaten by Rebel Dane a nose. Up 2.5kg today, back to the straight and back down 200m. Should sit closer to the speed today.
Rarefied: Ran ‘ok’ first two runs this prep but not going well enough for this.
Steps In Time: Super disappointing last start. Back down the straight and up 2kg from previous straight run. Hard to see beating home Spirit of Boom.
Albrecht: Last two runs have been VERY solid and is DOWN at the weights on last two runs. Rates to win on these last two runs.
Longport: Hasn’t been seen for a long time. Better runs have been over further distances but has won at distance previously. No weight on back.
Shamal Wind: Ran on well enough last start at Caulfield behind SPirit of Boom. Equal weight today while Spirit up 1kg. 1/1 at track and was if you rememebr down the straight last prep was a huge winner.
Bennetta: Ran on well two back but last start didn’t display much heart. If reproduces run of two back can run well but query at distance.
Karacatis: Going well but well enough to win in this class? Is weighted well.
Lonhspresso: Down 6kg today after running 3rd to Liesele at Caulfield. Never run the straight is a massive issue but first up run was solid enough to suggest runs well.
Chiaramonte: Blocked for runs and didn’t get a crack last start. Will be given a run today you would suspect during the race and goes well enough down the straight.
Knight Exemplar: Massive improvement last start when 0.5L behind Arinosa in WFA-G2 company. Down 5.5kg today and has to be considered.
Essay Raider: 6.5L win last start beating nothing really. Weighted well but is he this classy?
Comments: Hardest race of the day. So many chances. Quaddie certainly no cert.
Confidence 65%
Quaddie Leg Three: 4, 8, 12, 15, 16
Strategy: Chiaramonte deserves to be on top from Albrecht and Fontelina
Flemington Race 9
Riva De Lago: Being backed hard due to three back demolish job of Solzhenitsyn at Rosehill. Next start ran on ok but not good enough and last start blocked and just missed the win. If brings run of three back, simply wins.
Mic Mac: Ran on quite well last start behind Boban. Up in class today but weighted ok here. Might just find a few too good again.
Galah: Weighted poorly last start and still ran home very well. Down 1.5kg today and comes in well enough.
Launay: Last two runs have been disappointing and has been under an injury cloud. Hard to have in this class.
Centennial Park: Almost equal weights with Riva De Lago from three runs back when got spanked. hard to see winning today unless they go crazy out front and run of two back presents.
Outlandish Lad: Not going well enough to place today.
British General: Big win last start at Caulfield and proved he has returned to best. Weighted equally well today and maps to clearly lead the race. Will put on a strong tempo and if the rail is working out, be very hard to run down. Massive chance.
Smokin’ Joey: Very poor first up. Can’t have.
Strike The Stars: Beat Riva De Lago last start at Randwick and is 0.5kg worse off today. Never missed a place from 2 starts here but last start was only 2nd win ever. Hard to see putting two together.
Out of Coober: Just simply ignore last start when went wide on a track that was suiting the rail runners. Still, others look better today.
Mister Milton: Continues to run solid races without threatening. Lost a plate last start.
Eximus: Blocked for runs last start but weighted only fairly today. Needs to find much more.
Comments: The $10 has been eaten up for British General and is no longer value. Two keys runners here for me once again while it’s hard to ignore the favourite with a saver at least.
Confidence 85%
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 3, 8, 10
Strategy: Galah to win from British General. Saver on Riva De Lago.
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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