Welcome to The Profits form guide for Stakes Day at Flemington on Saturday 9 November 2013. Well, we got back onto our winning ways with the Best Bet landing on Oaks day at a very handy price. Hopefully we can repeat that effort today. Once again, a fair few races with some decently high confidence today. There are certainly some that I will NOT be having a bet into with wide open fields. As always, I hope your form matches up with mine! Good luck and happy punting.
Best Bet
Flemington Race 4 Suavtio
Next Best
Flemington Race 5 Queenstown
Best Value
Flemington Race 7 Spurtonic
Flemington Quaddie
Leg One: 1, 2, 8, 9
Leg Two: 1, 2, 4, 6, 13, 14
Leg Three: 2, 3, 4, 5
Leg Four: 2, 3, 4, 7, 9
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters Paradise – http://www.puntersparadise.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means a speculation pick.
Flemington Race 1
Better races to look at. Need more form lines for me to match these up.
Flemington Race 2
Spacecraft: 8 runs 0 places at track. Last two runs have been poor but previous to that at MV peaked and run a close 2nd to Fiorente in WFA-G2 over 1600m. I can’t discount fully but also can’t have as the winner.
Out Of Coober: Way back in class today and not fully discounted on weight. Three back run was eye catching and previous to that was a big win also. If they run this fast which with Spacecraft here you can suggest they will, then he has a big chance.
Sysmo: Won 3 from 4 at distance. Beaten first up but improved second up at Seymour. This looks harder but he is a good enough horse to go close.
Proverb: Blocked for runs quite a few times last start in straight and weighted better today. Can argue should beat home Sysmo here.
Lord Wimble: Every chance last start but just wasn’t good enough. Others here look better.
Final Command: Big jump up in class and couldn’t win last race so hard to see here.
Flyingconi: Fairly disappointing last start and hasn’t been able to get a run since June at Moonee Valley. Goes ok at track but never won at distance.
Electric Fusion: Just ignore last start and look to two back. Back to 1600m where suited. Has huge ability and maps well.
Post D’France: Good win two back and then unlucky beaten in a photo last start by Esprit Rossa who was a close 2nd on Thursday in the last at Flemington over 1600m also. Maps well and is weighted nicely.
New York: Showed improvement last start flashing home for 3rd at MV. Could be back to best. Never won from 6 runs at track and only placed once.
Xavi: Very disappointing his last two runs. Hard to back today on them when we were on both. Knowing this, probably wins.
Transfer Allowance: Ran ok the last two but not in this class.
Comments: Tough race with quite a few chances.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Post D’France E/W.
Flemington Race 3
Keep Cool: Very disappointing last start and previous runs. Goes well at track but just isn’t going well enough the past few runs.
Extra Zero: Not gone close the past three runs. Hard to see the improvement.
Hioctdane: Big run last start and unlucky not to get the win.
Bel Thor: Good run two back and then last start unlucky not to get the win with a big run.. Almost equal weight down in class. Will go close.
Supremacy: Ok win three back but since then done nothing. No thanks.
Alrouz: Not going well enough on last two runs. Suited to lesser distances.
Sharalam: Last two runs have been ‘ok’ without blowing anyone away. Could be peaking and suited.
Northcliffe: Not going well enough.
Comments: Many scratchings which makes only one main standout for mine.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Bel Thor to win.
Flemington Race 4
Barbed: $1.60 favourite last start when beaten at Randwick. Actually worse at weights against Dothraki today by 0.5L but suggest can improve again today.
Dothraki: Poor first up this prep then improved two back to 3rd then last start decided to lead and almost got home with the win. Can go close.
Suavito: Big win last start at Caulfield and seems to be improving. Down 3.5kg today as well and Roop All who ran 2nd last start to Suavito went very close to winning the Lexus Hybrid Plate on Tuesday. Form lines are very sound!
Trust in Gust: Good win in country grades then outclassed last start. Hard to see the win.
Olivier: Ran on ‘well’ enough the last two starts but need to find 2 lengths today which isn’t there.
Apollo’s Choice: Similar form lines to Trust In Gain around Newspaper. Hard to see the improvement.
Burnro: Last two runs solid enough and will be suited to the long straight. Barrier suits and could go close. Looks over the odds.
Consorting: Last two runs were solid. Can improve today but others look better.
Forget Maybe: Hard to have on first two runs. Oliver goes on which is hard to overlook though.
Ilgattino: Is the form really good enough? I don’t think so.
Ryker: Maiden only winner but was in a very solid time from start to finish. Horse behind won next start but only a maiden of course. The 3rd horse also won next start. Looks big value at weights from barrier 2. Speed will be on in the race!
Impulsive Spirit: Not good enough
Comments: Very hard race but keen on two here.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Suavtio on top from Ryker.
Flemington Race 5
Unchain My Heart: Ran poorly first up. Better further into runs.
Zurella: A little disappointing two runs this prep. Up to more suitable distance but hard to have.
Kazanluk: Ran ok two back and then last start blocked for runs. Hard to know where the horse is at really.
Lake Sententia: Blocked for runs last start when coming home very well. Up in distance to best distance today and is a huge chance at weights.
Alzora: Disappointing last two runs. Hard to have in this grade.
Keep De Rose: Outclassed last start by Queenstown. Can go close today but barrier does turn!
Queenstown: Barrier doesn’t suit but didn’t last start and won well with class. Continues to improve and is probably the best horse in the race. Big chance.
Bells of Troy: Hard to see on recent form going close.
Zonza: Good win two back at Caulfield but step up in class last start and going back did her in. Barrier 2 today and won’t sit that far back. Up in distance should suit also. Don’t dismiss.
Detox: Ran well last start coming home strongly. Will be even further back today but still a small chance.
Dolly Dolly: Ridden cold off an average tempo and ran home well. Needs to find legnths today though.
Epingle: Ran well last start. Up to 2000m suits. never missed a place from 6 starts at distance is a strong sign.
Endless Shadow: Hard to see backing up and winning this off last run.
Miss Zenella: Just not going well enough this prep on last two runs.
Girls Gone Rockin’: Ran on ok first up and then went close nd up. Up in class today but weighted well enough.
Zoomania: Hard to see the win from last start run. Needs it more wet.
Comments: Five key runners here for mine in Lake Sententia, Keep De Rose, Queenstown, Zonza and Girl Gone Rockin’. Tempo should be solid enough to give everyone a chance.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Queenstown on top from Lake Sententia.
Flemington Race 6
Lucky Nine: Can he run down the straight? Previous runs down a straight suggest so. Needs all of the 1200m for sure. Just missed the win last start at MV but is every chance today. Price is right.
Buffering: 4 placings from 6 tries at track. Best distance for the horse as well. Will get the right track condition. Don’t dismiss. Will go close once again.
Epaulette: Disappointing first up this prep. Never gone down the straight so hard to back off that.
Temple of Boom: Three strong runs this prep but isn’t up to WFA-G1 material against these. Does go well down the straight though.
Bel Sprinter: Hard to know what to make of last start run by Bel Sprinter. Got a nice position in run and held up a few times. When asked to go entering the straight did have horses infront which could have prevented the run but didn’t find a huge amount. Don’t ignore if you ask me.
Moment of Change: Missed start and hand to settle out the back. Ran on Very well. Goes very nicely down the straight at track.
Shamexpress: Ran on ok without threatening. Hard to see the win even though likes the straight.
Fontelina: Good win last start at course and distance. Up 1kg today and in stronger company, but the time was solid and he can go close.
Rebel Dane: Had to cover a load of ground last start at Moonee Valley and game home well. Maps close to buffering so should bea be able to get covered up and let go. Can go close.
Sessions: Very disappointing two back when beaten fairly well at course and distance. Last start given a great ride let go at the 700m to get into a good position and got in for third.
Unpretentious: Strong enough resuming at Caulfield. Won at Flemington previously but is he THIS good? I’m not sure.
Platelet: Always runs well at course. Doesn’t come into this very well at the weights but don’t dismiss from being F4.
Sidestep: A throw at the stumps it seems. Went well enough last start and at weights suggest they don’t try lead? Can run ok.
Villa Verde: The blowout chance for mine. Runs well down the straight and won’t be getting so far back today. Weighted very well.
Comments: Tough race. You couldn’t be overly confident on anything in this race.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 2, 8, 9
Strategy: Rebel Dane on top from Lucky Nine. Very small bet on Fontelina also due to price being overs.
Flemington Race 7
Solzhenitsyn: Just ignore last start. Horse choked down last start and will have tongue tie added. Back to best distance today and in a very suitable race. Barrier 5 is PERFECT. There doesn’t seem much speed in the race and he will get a similar run to two back at Caulfield. Will be very hard to beat.
Boban: Got fairly lucky last start given a great ride hugging the rail. Wouldn’t have got close if went out wide like the rest of the swoopers. Just got there two back at Randwick. Barrier 4 today but will still be getting back in the run (say 3/4 back). Weight against others here is the main issue for the horse.
Sacred Falls: Ran on well last start at the valley and is down 2kg today like most out of that race. Hasn’t been able to get one over Boban or Toydini the last few starts and hard to see turning the tables now.
Toydini: Won two of last three runs and has won 4 from 6 at distance. Close third to Boban two back. Going well and gains 1.5kg on Boban today.
Mull of Killough: Blow out chance at the odds. Down 5.5kg today and maps to sit forward. D.Oliver goes on which is a huge plus. Best distance is the 1600m on recent form lines. Can go very close. Big overs.
Nashville: Flew over from NZ for this. 3rd and 2nd in WFA-G1 recently over there over 1600m and 2000m. Back to 1600m but down 3.5kg. Weighted nicely but is he really this good? I’m not sure he is.
Speediness: Weighted 2kg better off today than Toydini for a 0.1L loss. Going very well recently but very hard to see him beating all of these home.
Stipulate: Never won at distance (only had 2 wins previously). Has failed to miss a place the past 6 runs all in similar class. Weighted at record low. Could be value.
Blackie: Running well recently with a huge win at MV three back, ran 3rd in Group 1 company two back and 2kg better off against Solzhenitsyn from that run today. Last start off 59kg ran on well without threatening. Down 6.5kg while Toydini is 4.5kg worse off. Can go close.
Smokin’ Joey: The unknown in the race. Huge win here on Saturday and down 2.5kg. Keep an eye on.
Spurtonic: The one to beat in the race for mine. Big start to finish win last start at Caulfield. 2000 did look a little far for the horse for mine yet still won it by 2.3l. Previous start was 0.5L behind Boban and Toydini when jockey dropped the whip over 1600m at Randwick. Meets Toydini 3kg better off and Boban 4.5kg better off today and maps to lead from start to finish.
Strike The Stars: Weighted nicely today but based on last start 3rd behind Smokin Joey is hard to see turning that around.
Rhythem To Spare: Blocked for runs last start at Sale Cup but this is a massive step up. Not good enough IMO.
Comments: Very happy to take on the back markers currently with the way the track played late in the day on Thursday.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 2, 4, 6, 12, 13, 14
Strategy: Spurtonic big win bet with a lesser bet on Solzhenitsyn. Spec bet on Mull of Killough at the huge odds.
Flemington Race 8
Kelinni: Super disappointing last start. Just ignore that run. If finds best can run much better.
Precedence: BIG run last start at the valley. Was wide and was huge. Looks to be a big chance here.
Forgotten Voice: Just ignore first up run on Heavy. They ran it fast and it was on heavy. Weighted very well in this class today. Goes close if the track is Good.
Sertorius: Flying right now. Was a fairly stock standard win last start at Bendigo. Has every chance to do the same today.
Let’s Make ADeal: Form is strong with this one. Very unlucky not to win last start. Will have similar run today from barrier 2. Big chance.
Moudre: Disappointing the last few runs. Hard to see in this grade.
Mourinho: Every chance also last start and got beaten. Weighted better today.
Ironstein: Gone backwards the last two starts. No thanks.
Rothera: Last start race I don’t actually rate as a good race. Down 4.5kg today but needs to find much more. Never placed at track from 5 tries.
Verdant: Hard to see beating home Sertorius on last run.
Garud: Two back run solid but last start was poor.
Angola: Not going well enough this prep to win this.
La Amistad: Huge step up. Hard to see measuring up.
Comments: Lots of solid form lines. Many chances.
Confidence 65%
Quaddie Leg Three: 2, 3, 4, 5
Strategy: Let’s Make a Deal on top from Forgotten Voice and Sertorius. Let’s Make a Deal E/W looks the play.
Flemington Race 9
Launay: Very disappointing last start. Up 3kg today in similar class. Hard to see the improvement from last run.
Longport: Won 3 from 5 at this distance in the past in much harder company. Weighted well enough if you ask me and she will position forward today I would suspect. May leading past the distance marker and could continue on with it.
Karacatis: Ran on very well behind Fontelina last start. Will run much better today but weight may be the issue.
By The Way: Ran very well first up at Caulfield when blocked in the straight. Big hope.
Disciple: Ran well enough on leader bias track first up. I still can’t see getting the win.
Limes; Suggest you ignore first up run when very disappointing. Never won 2nd up is an issue. Did beat Boban three runs back over 1400m if that gives you a bit of confidence.
Brian’s Honour: Very disappointing last start. Hard to see a win in this class off that run. Did go well two back at Caulfield but will it be wet enough? If we get a slow track (very doubtful) then a must include in Quaddie.
Henwood: Blocked blocked blocked and blocked for runs first up at MV. Up to 1400m where suited and will get every chance today.
Rockpecker: Never won first up from 12 tries. Last prep was very bad.
Kitten on the run: Won some ok races at 2 in Italy but then went to UK and didn’t measure up. Hard to see the improvement in such a short time.
Loot ‘n’ Run: Never won first or second up in past or at track or in this class. Maps to lead and can run well but not sure good enough to win this.
Henshaw: Goes well first up but never placed in this class or at this track from 3 tries.
Aashiq: Ran ‘ok’ first up but that was a much easier race. Should run better today but hard to see in this class.
Comments: Tough race. Not overly confidence here but really think if Longport is at her best she wins. Henwood will be well back but should go close.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg Four: 2, 3, 4, 7, 9
Strategy: Longport on top from Henwood
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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