Welcome to The Profits form guide for Randwick and Caulfield on the opening day of The Championships on 12 April 2014. What a huge day of racing we have ahead of us. Runners all over the country sticking out with strong form lines. I will be on track at Randwick today so the posts may be a little less often than normal on twitter and a little looser! I’m keen to see early how the track is playing and then to adjust in kind going into the later races if we somehow get more leader bias than expected. Excited people. Excited! As always, I hope your form matches up with mine! Good luck and happy punting!
Sydney Best Bet
Randwick Race 5 Peggy Jean
I couldn’t have been any more impressed with the way she ran on last start behind Bring Me The Maid who simply franked that form in the Golden Slipper running a very good 3rd. We are getting the genuine heavy she wants and with a good barrier, she is the bet of the day. Expect her price to be slashed to 3/4 of what it is currently.
Melbourne Best Bet
Caulfield Race 4 Resistant
Loved his run two back at Bendigo. Just ignore last start and rate on that run. Showed his best on wet and should eat up the ground today. Weighted nicely in this grade and there are some fairly average horses in this. The place is crazy overs on my ratings here and i’ll be betting 2 units on the place to 1 unit on the win.
Sydney NEXT Best Bet
Randwick Race 4 Sertorius (savering The Offer also)
Sertorius has been brave all prep and back in class today onto a heavy track again today after a strong 4th behind Silent Achiever last start, he looks to be well in today. The Offer has been found by the handicapper and I suspect this gets him beat. I still believe it’s really between these two here and I’m happy to have a sizeable bet on Serty with a saver on The Offer. Come out ahead playing this way going forward more often than not.
Melbourne NEXT Best Bet
Caulfield Race 7 Three-way play
Very tough card today and there is no clear runner who i’m willing to back as my Next Best. I do consider three runners to be WELL over the odds today though in Race 7 at Caulfield. I am willing to put this up as my next best bet of the day with equal stakes on Lady Melksham, Legcut and Halle Rocks. All three runners love the wet.
Sydney Best Each-Way All Day
Randwick Race 9 Arabian Gold
To finish the day, Arabian Gold is a genuine wet tracker, as long as we have a Heavy 8 at least by this race, I am very keen on this horse on the E/W. I don’t expect them to back this one in at the odds due to being poorly weighted on other favourites from last start, but up in distance and onto the heavy track is the key for this runner. If they are running on late then that is a bonus also.
Melbourne Best Each-Way All Day
Caulfield Race Race 8 Bass Strait
Continues to run well and showed to handle the wet going two back. Expect improvement today in a significantly easier race.
Other value runners on the card today
Randwick Race 2 Cast In Stone:
Randwick Race 6 Hooked
Randwick Race 7 Snitzerland
Runners who based on statistics are over their correct odds today and should give us a good run for our money.
Randwick Quaddie
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 3, 5, 9
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 2, 3, 5, 14
Quaddie Leg Three: 4, 5, 7, 17, 18, 19
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 2, 3, 4, 11
Promotions
Sportingbet
Big offer today!
Money back if your horse runs 2nd in all 9 races at Randwick (Maximum $100 refund per race – only your first bet in any race)
PalmerBet
Money back for 2nd or 3rd in all Sydney Group Ones this Autumn Carnival (max back up to $100) – *Must be 8 starters in race, only applies to your first Fixed Odds bet in race*
Races covered this week up at Randwick are:
Doncaster Handicap
TJ Smith Stakes
AJC Australian Derby
AJC Sires Produce Stakes
Sportsbet
Sportsbet are paying out 4 places on the Doncaster Mile or the Australian Derby (max $300, applies to your first three bets on each race)
Ladbrokes
$4 for Lankan Rupee or Gordon Lord Byron to Win the TJ Smith Stakes ($50 max bet)
Paying Best Tote +30% on the Doncaster Mile
Bookmaker
$4 for Lankan Rupee or Gordon Lord Byron to Win the TJ Smith Stakes ($50 max bet)
Australian Derby Bonus – Run 2nd or 3rd to Criterion, matched freebet up to $50.
Centrebet
Get a 20% Bonus on the SP Favourite on all Group 1 races this weekend at Royal Randwick!
Betfair – Power of Five Promotion
You can Opt into Two of the Five promotions.
Don’t Worry In The Donny – Money back if your horse runs second or third in the Doncaster. (Max Stake $50 – Best of Five Product)
Winner Winner Winner – Get a $150 credit if you back 3 or more winners on Day 1 of the Championships. (Minimum stake $25 per race – Best of Five Product)
No Luck for Lankan? – Money back if Lankan Rupee runs second or third in the TJ Smith. (Max Stake $50 – Best of Five Product)
Randwick Quaddie Boost – Get a 25% boost on your quaddie winnings at Randwick. (Max boost $200)
Unibet
Run 2nd or 3rd in the Australian Derby? Money back up to $100 (first bet only in each race)!
Tom Waterhouse
Run 2nd, 3rd or 4th in the Doncaster Mile? Get your money back up to $50 (Tom’s Div win bets only – Max $50)
Luxbet
Place a Bookies Best +20% bet on Saturday’s Doncaster Mile at Randwick and you’ll get 20% more than the best price of Sportsbet’s Top Tote Plus, Tom Waterhouse’s Tom’s Div or Sportingbet’s Best Tote Plus.
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters Paradise – http://www.puntersparadise.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Randwick Race 1
Some very good horses in the race, but with three first starters and a lack of heavy form lines to go off, how do you have a bet here?
I Am Snippety showed she could be a very very good horse last start, but that was on Good.
Have a early beer or two and watch the future.
Randwick Race 2
Gypsy Diamond: Been put up all around the traps as the best of the day. Ran on very very well last start from a poor barrier and got very close to Catkins at the line. Much better barrier today and will be able to sit midfield at worst. 1 run on slow for one place.. if we get a genuine heavy then that is a serious question for the horse. Will start a short priced favourite.
Equator: Never run on slow or heavy previously. First run this prep was very average. Last prep ran a nice 2nd to Paximadia over 1600m in Melbourne. Always trys.
Sinjoren: Ran on well last start without really going close. Never run on slow or heavy but trials on slow didn’t exactly excite. Others preferred.
Liberty’s Choice: Ran well last prep with some impressive runs. First up run worked too hard to lead and fell out sharply off too hot a tempo. No wet track form to go off. Probably forgive first up.
Gamblestown: Ran home very well last start but just didn’t get there. Better barrier today and maps to run well. No wet form though and best seen on good in past.
Ryker: Won the Albury Guineas last start but how classy was that? Not too classy IMO. Has shown much better ruins this prep but has to improve again here at weights.
Malice: Very strong to the line last start at Warwick Farm. No wet form but looks in well on last start.
Rock Sturdy: 0.8L 2nd to Singing Flame last start on Kensington. Ran 2nd in a maiden four back on a Heavy and has improved onwards. Will handle the wet.
Darci Magic: No wet form. Last start won a fairly average race and previous to that ran just ok in the Canberra Guineas. Need to improve again.
O’Reilly’s Revenge: Didn’t get close in the Alburby Guineas. Last prep did handle a heavy track but was still 2 lengths off a win.
Juantorena: Very good run blocked last start at Warwick Farm. Better barrier today, based on last start expect him to run well. Unknown on ground.
Casino Dancer: Average at best this prep. Runs ok on heavy.
Cast In Stone: 2.2L off Zanbagh in the Keith Nolan last start and ran home well enough for mine. Looks value.
Comments: A very average race with no true wet trackers or Championship class races outside of Gypsy Diamond. The one that stands out at odds is Cast In Stone for me.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Gypsy Diamond to Win. Speculation E/W bet on Cast In Stone.
Randwick Race 3
Twilight Royale: Average trials two of them to come into this. Only run on Heavy was 0.2L 2nd to Everage which is strong enough.. then won next 3 races including the VRC Sires’ beating home Shamus Award! Didn’t come back in as good form last prep but lets forgive. 191 days off and comes into a winable race first up. Looks overs.
Bound For Earth: Close 2nd just missing in the DarbyMunro to Sidestep. Did get a good run through. Handles the wet and loves it. Positive barrier today and will be coming hard late.
Montsegur: Two runs this prep have been very poor. Trialed ok last start on Heavy. Only run on slow last prep was good enough to suggest she should handle ground.
Everage: Handles wet tracks. Ran well enough last start at MV I thought all things considered. Going well enough. Could win.
Champagne Cath: Never run on wet tracks but trialed ok on heavy. Won well enought hree back, Two back run 3rd behind Sweet Idea and Gypsy Diamond was good but last start finished off poorly. Needs to improve.
Calming Influence: A solid enough 2nd on Heavy on the record. never really run in this class of race previously but trials were ok. D Oliver goes on and strong barrier to go forward.
Miss Steele: Very good win last start at Moonee Valley and should be able to go on with it here. Issue is no wet track form and very very wide gate.
Northern Glory: Ran home very well first up in the DarbyMunro for 3rd. Down in weight today but a horrible barrier draw. Don’t discount if gets an ok spot.
Miniature: Trialed well. Goes fine on wet as well… have to have improved significantly to measure up here though.
Shahad: 2 runs on heavy and 0 places. Only ever placed on a good track previously, but trialled well enough on deads. Needs to find a lot here today from barrier.
Cosmic Endeavour: Just went to hard last start in the DarbyMunro. Doesn’t have the turn of speed from three runs back though from the last two runs. Poor barrier hurts chances as well. Have to go hard to get a spot.
Flight Academy: Best run was two back in the Fireball but wet track form doesn’t seem to measure up for me.
Oh So Adorable: Very easy win last start at Warwick Farm. Big step up in class today but is flying. Has won on Heavy quite well but needs to show much more today. Maps well enough.
Politeness: Only run on slow last prep was very solid for 0.7L 3rd in similar grade. Absolutely flew home last start at Sportingbet Park when missing the start off 61kg. Huge overs if they are running on today.
Fare Well: Average first up and 2nd up run wasn’t much better. Not in this class.
Papillon Rouge: Not been seen for a while. Bm66 grade up to this? No thanks.
Miss Tenpins: Trialed well this prep and goes well on wet tracks… will she measure up in this grade? Doubt it.
Nuclear Class: 3 runs 3 wins on slow but they were very poor class. Much harder today.
Scatcat: Goes well on wet tracks. Was a very big run last start at MV and should measure up well in this class if gets a run. Barrier the issue.
Dublin Lass: No wet track form. Won very well last start at Warwick Farm from the start in a fast time. If handles the ground could be one to watch from a perfect barrier.
Mesmmereyeser: Goes ok on slow. How do you rate her here today? The win two back was good but last start lacked a lot.
Glenbawn Dame: Only run on fairly last two runs. Did win on slow three back but that was a maiden. No thanks.
Comments: 22 runners? How do you bet with confidence here. Twilight Royale, Bound For Earth, Everage, Northern Glory, Calming Influence, Politeness and Dublin Lass are the runners who stick out. Politeness looks very backable here for me as long as they are running on in the first two races. Seems to be enough pace in this.
Confidence 65%
Strategy: Politeness E/W.
Randwick Race 4
Sertorius: A step back in class today from the Ranvet and The BMW. Still won a handy 75kg for 4th! Top weight today but deserves it. Rates very well here.
Permit: Shown nothing this prep both runs on slow. Never placed on Heavy. Best shown on Good. Not for me.
The Offer: 3.5kg worse off today against Opinion but won very well last start. Much harder race today but does deserve to be top 2 in the market.
Epingle: Absolutely huge run last start in the Epona. Up in class today but a similar weight is the issue. Goes very well on Heavy and I expect her to settle further forward. Looks a blow out chance at odds off that eye-catching run from the back.
Opinion: Continues to find one too good when it counts but still finds the line well with two seconds in a row. His best ru nthree back saw him get ridden perfectly off a hot tempo.. he was made to run a high speed most the way and was being pushed along from 800m out. Last start he led at Rosehill which certainly isn’t where you want him and he set a very poor tempo and wasn’t asked for anything until the 400m mark when being passed. He is a stayer, he doesn’t have that ‘sprint’. 3.5kg better off today against The Offer, he wins if the pace is true.
Hippopus: Ran very well first time on heavy last start in the Sellwood. Much harder race today though at equal weights.
Tremec: Ran home well last start 3rd just behind Opinion. Maps well enough again today and goes well on any surface. Place chance.
Desert Jeuney: Ran home well enough last start but not well enough to win this.
Like A Carousel: Showed at Geelong he handles the heavy.. but is he classy enough to win this? Not for me.
Retort Courteous: Couldn’y win a BM72 at Kembla.
Lucky Liaison: Runs well on wet tracks.. but this is another league.
Comments: Sertorius, The Offer, Epingle and Opinion are the only realistic chances for me in this race. For me the issue is the lack of pace in the race. There isn’t really a natural leader and it may come down to Opinion again along with Tremec. For this reason, I’m going to discount Opinion due to tempo. Epingle really has to prove she is better than her best performance to date. I think her last start run was enough to go close here, but I can’t have her on top. The Offer gets the weight added that makes him a saver only option here for me today. Sertorius is the stand out for me. His back in class today all things considered and hasn’t been far off all prep. Goes well on any surface and that’s what we want.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Back Sertorius. Saver The Offer.
Randwick Race 5
Unencumbered: Average at best in the Slipper as expected. Not really a wet tracker and I couldn’t have today again on a wet track.
Cornrow: Very average run in the Slipper. Disappointed heavily.. just didn’t handle the wet track and can’t see it today either.
Time For War: Very good expected win in the Pago Pago but was also very green. Step up again today but handles a heavy track which is more than we can say for a few others here. Only leader on paper.
Zululand: Very good win from the back in the VRC Sires, impressive. Never gone on a wet track is a massive issue but runs well on dead… don’t dismiss coming home late.
Kumaon: Huge run last start in the Pago Pago and just missed. Was 2L slow away and that cost him. Rates well enough today on that run and if the back-markers are winning early, then he is a huge chance.
Scratch Me Lucky: Ran home well enough last start at Rosehill on Heavy but was still beaten in lesser class by 2.3 lengths. Good place chance but happy to take him on here today.
Believe Yourself: 4th in the Slipper taking an inside run to save ground and hitting the line very hard. Ate up the heavy ground. How much ground did he save and did it make his run look better because of it? Probably. Is he a chance here? Certainly is.
Peggy Jean: Huge run late last start 2nd to Bring Me The Maid was an eye-catcher. Bring Me The Maid was very good in the Slipper for 3rd as well. Maps a little better today from barrier but will be coming hard late. Huge chance.
Lucky Raquie: Good Black Opal win. Too far back last start in the Reisling but finished off well enough. Untested on wet tracks is the query.
Unknown Destiny: Average at best on form this prep. Can’t see it here.
Miss Interiors: Very poor run on heavy last start. Can’t see placing.
Comments: I don’t think this is a race you want to take a risk on a horse in. There are proven wet trackers here and you have to bet through them. I have this down to A Time For War, Kuamon, Believe Yourself and Peggy Jean. I have to take on Kuamon as I believe the two other swoopers are better.. plus the missing the start factor. Believe Yourself is still a query for me due to saving so much ground last start. A Time for War could steal this race out the front. No real competition.. will be there at the 100m. Peggy Jean is the one I like on top today. Was a huge run last start and the form around Bring Me The Maid is the best for sure here for me.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Peggy Jean to win. Lesser bet Time For War.
Randwick Race 6
Criterion: Got the run of the race in the best part of the track and ran away with it. Barrier 1 is a tough draw today and will be hard to get off the rail without going all the way back to last. Impressive win last start even accounting for the ground and it’s hard to dismiss him. Big player.
Puccini: Went around favourite, pulled hard out front saddle slipped and ran 12th with a very very poor run. May be even wetter today and hard to see him measuring up off that first up run. Happy to bet around.
Thunder Fantasy: Goodm run for 2nd last start. Unproven if he wants it even wetter or not though. Decent enough barrier and will run well.
Savvy Nature: Ran on well but missed a place last start. Has to improve significantly for mine here today to feature at the winning post. Can place.
Teronado: Strong to the line for 3rd and didn’t take the best line home which may have cost him any chance at winning. Stable seem confident and he can go close again today. Track should suit.
Koroibete: Showed nothin from the back last start and hasn’t been close all prep. Hard to give him any chance.
Surge Ahead: Not winning this today but I thought his run last start had merit. F4 chance.
Gallatin: Won last start just at Rosehill off a very average run two back at course. Has to improve another 2-3 lengths and get a dream run from the very poor barrier 17 today to even stand a chance. Others preferred.
Hooked: Not the worst run last start and could be a big improver today from a much better barrier. Ran as well as Thunder Fantasy for mine having to cover extra ground and being on ground much further out.
Best Case: Only fair to the line last start. Won’t measure up to winning this.
Crime Fighter: Backed in late last start at MV and won well. This is a much tougher grade though and is 0 places from 2 starts on slow. Others better than this guy today.
Tupac Amaru: Hard to excuse the last two runs. Not for me.
Singing Flame: Never runs a bad race but seems to finde a way to get beaten at times. Last start looked home but found a way to lose at Rosehill when had every chance from the run. Much harder today.
Cadillac Mountain: Good runs in Melbourne but last start showed nothing at all. Hard to consider with the rain around again.
Solo Saga: 5 runs no wins on slow or heacvy tracks. Runs this prep have been ok but not this class!
Mountain View: Won’t finish within 2 lengths of third on form. Can’t have
Surging Wave: Finally got a win at Cranbournhe. Massive jump up no thanks.
Heresdecasino: Hasn’t won a maiden. How does this even get nominated here???
Comments: Hard to pass up Criterion on last start. I just can’t find the way to bet around the horse with the ground today. Hooked it he massive chance at odds for me. Way overs.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 3, 5, 9
Strategy: Criterion on top. Very keen to have a E/W bet on Hooked.
Randwick Race 7
Buffering: Old faithful. Buff always runs a good race on a wet track.. is it his best surface? I don’t believe so, and to be honest, he would need to run to his best to test a few of these today. I thought his run first up was really good over the 1000m which is just a tad too short.. prefer over a 1200m distance. He can’t be discounted here.
Gordon Lord Byron: Loves it heavy loves it slow. Run of the race last start got all the splits and was super to the line. Every chance again today but won’t have the same luck today and needs to improve a length or so. Query 1500 back to 1200 also.
Lankan Rupee: Superstar. Highest rated horse in Australia… but never tested on slow or heavy at the races. Has won trials on slow previously but this looks to be a genuine wet track today. What has he been beating this prep? I’d suggest not the best around. A few queries today but one thing is for sure, if he handles the ground, he will he hard to pass with the speed to be on.
Spirit of Boom: Finally broke through last start at MV for a Group 1 win. Much easier company there than here today and Lankan has convincingly beat him both times this prep. Goes well enough on slow on form.
Rebel Dane: Never lost first up and looked to be the next big thing.. but didn’t go on with it last prep. Won on slow and placed on heavy 0.1L to a handy colt called Pierro… if at his best he can go close.
Tiger Tees: Big win last start at Rosehill with a lower weight than today. Has to find 3-4 lengths today that isn’t there to win in this grade.
Bel Sprinter: Missed the start and never a chance last start… but did he finish off well enough to win this? Much better weighted today but not going well enough for mine off last few runs.
Shamexpress: Only seen once on a slow track for a place. Never on a heavy. Fairly catlike this prep just keeps missing out on winning. Step up in class again today and hard to see winning.
Fontelina: I like this bloke, always have. Huge run last start but his wet track form is very poor. I have to be against him in this level today on wet.
Famous Seamus: Handled heavy/slow in the past but didn’t handle it last start. Hard to have here.
Sessions: Continues to run fair runs this prep but doesn’t get close to a win. Back in class will get a win but not here.
Aeronautical: Hates it wet, not winning.
See The World: Ignore run last start when galloped on and lost a plate. First up run was solid enough but to win this? Stable believes he is going well enough to run here.
Snitzerland: Absolutely overs in the race today, expect her to work over and try and take a sit from the wide barrier. I don’t expect it to be an issue with a stack of pace in the race. Never run on slow or heavy but has won a trial on slow. Beat Shamexpress two back, ran Lankan Rupee to 0.1L last prep and meets Lankan 4.5kg better off at the weights. Pretty serious weight difference on their last meetings. If she handles the ground and get the right run, she can very much win. Big overs at the current price.
Steps In Time: Done nothing wrong this prep and very good win last start. Way up in class here today and back in distance the worry for me. Will inject some serious pace into the race. Can run well if slow, not so sure on heavy.
Sweet Idea: Brave 2nd last start. Equal weight today but much harder race. Barrier does hurt but will push forward hard. Back to 1200m a query for me after running at 1400m and 1500m.
Villa Verde: Missed start last start and just too far back but ran home well. Up in weight today and up in class. I wouldn’t fully dismiss her, but has never won on slow and never run on heavy.
Flamberge: Won well enough last start on Heavy.. but in reality he only just held on after looking beaten. Barrier 14 and much different tactics today if anything. Good F4 chance.
Peron: Runs very well first up. Handles slow and some good runs last prep.. but hard to match up to these here.
Comments: Six key chances here. Buffering will always run a solid race and he likes it wet. Gordon Lord Byron loves it wet but has queries back to this distance today. Lankan Rupee is the best horse in Australia but has never run on a rain affected track. Rebel Dane’s best +0.5L on a rain affected track could go close today. Snitzerland is weighted to go close if she handles the going.
Confidence 65%
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 2, 3, 5, 14
Strategy: Medium bet Rebel Dane. Small bet on Snitzerland.
Randwick Race 8
My Kingdom Of Fife: Didn’t show much at all last start in slow. 1 run 1 win on heavy in the past but that was over 2000m in the Queen Eliz and about 1000 days ago! Hasn’t come back very well after injury.
Streama: Goes well on all track conditions. Finished off nicely last start but did she really do enough to suggest she wins here? Barrier hurts big time also.
Sacred Falls: Very impressive run last start. Got blocked at a critical stage in the straight and that cost him the chance to win. Won this on a heavy last year defeating Pierro and other classy runners and conditions look to suit. Big chance.
Hawkspur: Last start run over 2000m was very impressive. Step back to 1600m interesting for me, but his wet track form stacks up here. Most importantly back to 56kg here out of WFA class.
Toydini: Never placed on heavy. Ran home quite well last start 5th behind Gordon Lord Byron. Up to 1600m helps. Looks a real sneaky chance from a very good barrier.
Speediness: Ran home well with Gordon Lord Byron and just missed. Unknown on a true heavy track but slow form suggests no dramas. Barrier means he will need to get a run like last start at the critical moment.
Mouro: No real wet track form to go off apart from a 2nd to Out Of Coober which isn’t much to brag about. Won well first up but last start run was poor.
Royal Descent: Last run on heavy was a 10L win over 2400m. Never won at this distance before but always runs well. Is she going well enough though this prep? I have my doubts.
Monton: Average up in this class last two runs. Down in weight but still hard to have here.
Dear Demi: Only running fair this prep and wet form isn’t that great. Prefer Royal Descent.
Fat Al: Ignore run last start when galloped on, goes wel on wet but really hard to suggest he wins this!
Slow Pace: French runner who was brave for 3rd at Newcastle last start in the feature race. Big step up here but eye-catching that his form on wet is strong. Barrier really does hurt, but can’t dismiss even at this distance.
Hana’s Goal: Not wet track form to really speak of… but isn’t here to not win. First up forgive run… barrier sucks today.
Lidari: Very average last start but down 7kg from WFA to this race today bringing him into it so to speak. Best shown on drier tracks.
Dissident: Didn’t stay the 2000m last start and was very poor. Could be coming to end of prep if you ask me. Bottom of the weights and loves it wet… can’t dismiss but i couldn’t have.
Messene: Continues to improve all throughout this prep and last start in Group 2 company was most impressive. Never run on slow or heavy through so hard to be confident unless the money comes.
El Roca: All the way out the front last start and was really a sitting duck. Weighted even better today here than others and all signs suggest he will stay. No dramas with wet either. Big chance.
Weary: Won on heavy last start but what did he actually beat? Price is way under the odds for mine today. Have to be against.
Ninth Legion: Never won on anything but Good. Not going well enough.
Comments: Taking on Weary at the price today. Should be $10s at best. Sacred Falls can improve again today and is a proven stayer. THe one best treated at weights today is El Roca. If there is no issue with leading today, then I think he will be very hard to get past out front with such a low weight.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg Three: 4, 5, 7, 17, 18, 19
Strategy: El Roca to win. Sacred Falls smaller bet.
Randwick Race 9
Arabian Gold: 2/2 on wet. Running well enough this prep and shown best in the past over this distance. This is a step back in class all things considered today and she rates to win with track condition.
Role Model: Ran very well first up. Only run on heavy was 0.3L 3rd in NZ so seems to handle the ground just fine. Maps well and good barrier.
Metaphorical: Only run on rain affected is a slow track win at bendigo with 60kg. Barrier suits today and weighted to go well.
Lady Cumquat: First up out of NZ… Never won on rain affected ground. Last start win was solid but will she measure up here just coming into this? Does never run a bad race it seems though.
Estonian Princess: Won a very easy CL2 last start. Average run before that. No real wet form.
Marmelo: Never run on slow or heavy previously and two runs this prep very average. Can’t see it here.
Devil Miss: CL2 to 10th in 3YB-70 and then this? Can’t see it. Only advantage is 1 win 1 run on heavy.
Amanpour: Missed start last run yet still finished off well enough. Best seen from this filly from out the front. Good enough barrier today.. poorly weighted though.
Moorluv: No wet form only won on good.l Decent last few runs but hard to match up against the better ones here.
Missvonn: Poorly weighted today compared to two back against others here… but did handle the Heavy ok in much harder company last start, was the widdest runner and finished off well regardless. Looks a chance today.
Paris March: Ran home well last start when did a few things wrong late. Never run on heavy.
Sweet Jaffa: Hard to see measuring up here on previous form lines. Never won a race.
High Harmony: Madein only winner with a lot to prove to go close to placing.
Mary Lou: Couldn’t win a maiden.
Blue Eyes: Couldn’t win a maiden or less classy races. No thanks.
Siberian Rose: 24L off in last two runs. Enough said.
Postnthyme: NZ runner first up here. FMB-65 winner last start makes it hard to see her measuring up here. No wet form.
Cast In Stone: Doubt she runs here but if so have to consider a genuine chance
Comments: Arabian Gold is the stand out here for me. Loves it heavy and gets that today. Not well treated at weights but up in distance is what turns that around for me. Big odds. Missvonn a big chance also in the race off last start.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 2, 3, 4, 11
Strategy: Arabian Gold E/W.
Mortphetville Race 5
Keeping this simple. Minaj will lead and be very hard to get past. Need to saver Eclair Big Bang and take on Miracles of Life.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Back Minaj. Saver Eclair Big Bang
Morphetville Race 6
May’s Dream vs Girl In Flight vs progressive Adelaide runners.
Hard to ignore the two favourites here. They should fight this out and be lengths clear of the rest.
Who takes the most out of the ground today and extra distance? May’s Dream should be peaking while Girl In Flight is 4th run in now and only thing that could win it for her today of May’s is position in running.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: May’s Dream to win.
Morphetville Race 7
Platelet is the best horse in the race. Good barrier and the price is overs. Word was she needed the first up run but still won very well over an unsuitable distance.Hard to ignore the form.
If Karacatis leads, could be a danger.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Platelet to win.
Caulfield Race 1
Three winning hopes on form lines.
Westsouthwest was very good behind Signoff last start at MV. Loves it wet whioch form suggests and down to 52kg today.. weighted to win.
Only A Pleasure is hard to match up. Better over further but hasn’t shown anything in a long while. Should handle ground.
Sneak A Peek is the best stayer on the flat in this race by a mile with a 0.8L 3rd in Group 1 company last prep over 2400m on the record. 1 win 2 places from 3 runs on Heavy.
Comments: Not sure Sneak A Peek is going well enough but have to saver. Westsouthwest weighted to win.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Back Westsouthwest. Saver Sneak a Peek.
Caulfield Race 3
Lord Durante has never won first or second up and finds himkself second up today. 2 wins 1 place on slow from 3 tries is very good stats though. Seems to like the ground wet. Up to 1400m today suits also, 1200m was a little too shart first up. Good barrier, looks a chance.
Zedi Knight has gone backwards the last two runs. Up to 1400m a little strange. Has won on slow previously but not sure his best track.
White Universe resuming after more than a year off today. Was running some good placings in listed company before the injury. Last win was on slow.
Boy on Tour has been horribly out of form but is a serious wet-tracker. Don’t fully dismiss.
Goldslick back in distance today is required. Been running some good races and back in class today looking for place money at least.
The New Boy has won first up but only 1 run on record on slow for no win. 55kg today. Back in grade big time.
Laohu is brave. He always runs well and you know what you are gonna get from him. Up 3kg today but is 1/1 on slow. I think he stays on this ground. Can win.
Tried and tired has no wet track form but is very adaptable. Good win last start. Will improve onwards.
Rugged Cross is a very good horse. First up run 2.3L 3rd to Our Voodoo Prince was a good run. Irish bred suggests should be fine on a wet ground. Weighted well.
Comments: One of the toughest races of the day.
Confidence 60%
Strategy: Rugged Cross on top from Laohu. Not much confidence.
Caulfield Race 4
Resistant was super two back at Bendigo. Last start ran home well but lost a plate and was a tad too far back. Showed best on wet ground this prep and should eat up the ground today. Weighted to win.
Under The Loubre was great winning for us last start at MV. Even more suited today for Caulfield but the track condition is a big concern.
Self Sense was very poor last start.. probably forgive run but needs to improve again to go close here. Runs well on wet.
Reldas is a lay if anything today for me. Only won on Good.
Washington Square wasn’t horrible last start at MV but does need to improve big time. 3kg better off today and shown can run ok on wet.. chance?
Silent Saga is one at odds with a chance if he handles the ground. Very good two back at Flemington and then last start flashed home and just missed.
Comments: Hard to pass up this E/W price on Resistant.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: 2 units to place 1 unit to win Resistant.
Caulfield Race 5
Honey Steel’s Gold been very poor last two runs, but three back was good. 1/1 on heavy in the past.
De Little Engine good win last start but runs on wet are an issue. Hard to expect a win.
Bring Something couldn’t be more impressive after a huge maiden win. Is certainly this class. Did place only run on slow.
Calendar Lad only run on slow a place. Going well enough to be a threat today.
Comments: Very poor race
Confidence 0%
Strategy: Stay Out – I’m not tipping anything here. It’s bad.
Caulfield Race 6
It Is Written and Le Bonsir have no winning wet track form on their records to back them up here to win today. Both clearly best on Good tracks and happy to avoid both.
Oregon Spirit was massive two back at course over 2000m. Goes ok on wet but 2400m back to 1200m? Talk about a throw at the stumps!
Nearest To Pin is 2/2 on slow and 1/1 on heavy so hard to ignore. Isn’t going the best this prep though.
Mandla is a serious horse but no wet form to speak of. Been well backed though. At best can win.
Ventic handles the wet but not sure the form is enough to win. Could place.
Forty Thirty been off a long time. This horse loves it wet. Never missed a place from 7 goes on heavy. Never won first up and only 1 place first up. Hard to have.
Couldn’t Agreemore a super horse. Ran super two back and then last start was average. Down to 51kg here.. if handles ground, wins.
Confidence 65%
Strategy: Couldn’t Agreemore E/W
Caulfield Race 7
Elite Elle undefeated on slow or heavy. Up 2kg today after claims but should go back to lead today.. or even with a sit like last start can run very well. Loves it wet. Big chance.
Lady Melksham undefeated on heavy and 1 from 2 on slow. First up run was very poor though but meets Elite Elle 4kg better off today for last start run.
Halle Rocks 1/1 on Slow. Have runs this prep been good enough to follow forward? Key today is back in class here and on two back run goes close.
Bloomingdale Miss has been backed off the map due to tipsters putting it up at the odds as a good bet. Only average wet form. I’m not sold.
Legcut was very poor first up but did do alot wrong. Equal weight today and onto a wet track.. 2 wins from 3 on heavy.. loves it wet.. looks suited.
Comments: Have to go wide here I believe.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Backing Lady Melksham, Legcut and Halle Rocks for small equal stakes.
Caulfield 8
Gotta keep this one simple. You have to go with the Heavy form as it’s going to be wet wet wet.
I love Taiyoo and if this was good or dead or even a low slow rating, I would chance it, but this Heavy. No thanks.
Kitten On The Run has to be given a chance today with very strong heavy and slow form from overseas.
Shiny Buttons last two runs have only been fair but shows best on wet tracks.
Bass Strait was super two back and comes into this very well. Expecting a very bold run today.
Ruscello 19 runs but none on slow or heavy. Breeding says handles wet but surely they avoided it back home?
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Bass Strait to win. Smaller bet Kitten On The Run
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