Welcome to The Profits form guide for 26 July 2014 at Caulfield. Last weekend didn’t go to plan at all with our Next Best Bet in Rowland running dead last at $70s… but thankfully we buttered up and backed our confidence in during the week and got he $12 4 days later when Rowland won by close to 5 lengths. On that performance, we would have been going very close on Saturday.. but that is how it goes. A tough card all things considered today at Caulfield so we are playing the value in most races. As most of you know, I am having a week break in New Zealand and fly out in the morning, so scratchings may not be updated until I arrive in Queenstown and find a pub with wifi! My social interaction will be lessened as well. Reduced format will continue next Saturday and Wednesday form is highly doubtful. Let’s get a few winners today!
Form is provided in a less in-depth preview (no preview of every runner) as I am now on my pre-spring one week holiday!
Melbourne Best Bet
Caulfield Race 5 Lord of the Sky
Priced currently at $1.70 and looks the best of the day and probably the best I have seen in a long time attracting our 95% confidence rating. We best bet him last start when winning by around 5 lengths a lesser rating run today would still be winning this. Very keen and is the banker for the day.
Melbourne Next Bet
Caulfield Race 2 Running Bull
Had my eye on this horse since it beat my horse in a maiden last year. Has progressed well and last start measured up in this grade. Maps very well and is also weighted nicely in a race where I think you want to be on the speed. Getting $18+ currently when I have rated in the single figure odds.
Melbourne Each-Way Special
Caulfield Race 7 Turnitaround
Very happy to take on the favourite in this race and only rate four to five with key chances in this race. Turnitaround is my top pick on ratings and we are getting double figure odds. Maps to sit mid to forward-mid during the run and will look the winner in the straight. The key for me today is the Dead 5 track.
Caulfield Quaddie
Quaddie Leg One: 5
Quaddie Leg Two: 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 10
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 2, 11, 13
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 2, 4, 7, 11
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Caulfield Race 1
Berlutti measured up last prep in this level of grade on firmer surfaces but looked to handle the slow and heavy tracks even better the last two runs this prep. Has progressed nicely and will enjoy a Dead 5 track today.
I have big questions about the favourite Affirmation and am happy to take on at the price offered. Club Star should run well but need to see a run on this surface before I rate him this highly.
Our Kaboom looks the value. Won fairly well from start to finish in similar company last start. Claim gets him in nicely at the weights and the track should play to leaders. Barrier 1.
Comments: Happy to take the price on offer for Our Kaboom. Looks a good sort. Berlutti the clear danger.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Our Kaboom to win. Saver Berlutti.
Caulfield Race 2
An interesting race. I can respect Pyrrolic in this race today and feel he is either the right price or slight value on that first up run. Up to 1400m should would even better today and a dead track should be suitable with the distance increase. Maps to sit much further forward today. Looks the clear danger on paper.
Baron Archer is hard to rate and even harder to map. They could go anywhere with him. Weighted very well and won well the two starts we have seen. Has to find more today though.
Running Bull is the horse I have my eye on here. A slightly raced 3YO, this is his fifth start and he has impressed at all but one of those. He measured up at course and distance last start behind Jessy Belle when he ran 4th in a similar grade. Weighted nicely again today and I would say this is a less classy race today on paper. The price is well over the correct odds.
I’m happy to take on Yesterday’s Songs here. Bossy gets the ride (BIG STRIKE), dead track not slow and from barrier 10 I have him getting too far back on how I expect the track to play.
Others with slight chances, looks fairly open really.
Comments: Running Bull gets the nod today. I have him rated in single figures and we are getting $18+ currently.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Running Bull E/W
Caulfield Race 3
A lot of early speed in this race will make it interesting to see who positions out the front and this may be the race where something from midfield is best suited.
You have to feel Self Sense, Savannah Moon and Pharrell have the ability in this race.
Self Sense is a questionmark with the 60kg today and a wide barrier, will have to do a lot of work early to get a forward position. Back to Dead today may just get him claimed late for mine especially up to 2400m.
Pharrell was brave last start at Caulfield and maps perfectly. Will go very close.
Savannah Moon is the one for me here at great odds. She continues to improve after every run this prep and ran on very well for 1.5L 4th to Dig A Pony last start at Flemington. Will be suited by the track today and most importantly, i’m expecting the pace to be on and it should give her every opportunity. Question about her at the distance is the only issue.
Comments: Self Sense and Pharrell too short for me. Take the value with Savannah Moon
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Savannah Moon E/W
Caulfield Race 4
Kristy Lee is very very short in this race today up in class, with boss onboard, going Melbourne way and with this weight. Very happy to take her on from the barrier. Maps to sit almost last!!!
Sino Eagle is a horse I have a lot of time for. Only ever really run on Good apart from 1 non-placed on slow. Have to expect she is fine with a Dead 5 but will she see her best first up? Maps nicely enough.
Can’t have Winta Chiller on runs this prep.
Dashing Shadow will run you a brave race, look the winner again and fail to place somehow.
It’s Poets Day can’t be overlooked. Measured up at Flemington down the straight in Open grade. Looks a big chance at weights from barrier 1.
Cheeky Rozay is shown no respect for her run three back on a Dead surface again. Race will be run as she likes it, only question is whether she prefers a longer straight. Weighted well enough and has the best apprentice in the country onboard. Looks overs. Last chance this prep as well for mine.
Comments: Odds look wrong for the top two in Doubtfilly and Kristy Lee. Sino Eagle is a good E/W chance but i’m happy to go wider with bets on Cheeky Rozay and It’s Poets Day
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Medium sized bet Cheeky Rozay. Smaller bet It’s Poets Day.
Caulfield Race 5
Keep this race simple.
Ready to Rip has the ability to run very well today. Looks a good place price.
Le Bonsir is best seen on Good. Won’t get that today and needs to find 5 lengths on LOTS.
Nearest To Pin is giving Le Bonsir 3.5kg today. If we rate Le Bonsir 5 lengths worse than LOTS then how can you give him a chance.
Grand Emperor won’t measure up and will be lucky to place for mine.
Gig is highly over-rated around the traps and I hear people tipping her up. If she wins good on you… but she hasn’t won her previous 11 races and is stepping back to 1200m to face a WFA-G3 4.5L winner.
Rain Fast won a R-58..
Thiamandi has to be respected. Unknown if she can measure up with these… last start win was good but time was average.
Lord of the Sky looks the next sprinting superstar…
Comments: Simply put, Lord Of The Sky wins, by 2+ lengths.
Confidence 95%
Quaddie Leg One: 5
Strategy: Lord of the Sky to win. Banker of the day.
Caulfield Race 6
Mezeray Miss was very disappointing firs tup.. but probably better on dead than slow?? Equal weight.. maps ok.
Street Allure was simply too far back last start at Flemington. Also forgive for straight race. Much better suited around the bend today. Barrier makes it tricky but only really 4 going to try and be very positive and should get a decent spot.
Hot Mama shocked us last start at Flemington down the straight. Respect today but peak run was on a Good and deep into prep.
So Hasty is a very good horse. Measured up last prep and can improve again this prep but not sure I could be confident first up. Maps to be forward enough.
Whistle Baby was VERY disappointing last start at Flemington. Have to include in Quaddie but I can’t put her on Top today.
Copper put in a blistering run last start at the farm up in Sydney.. times don’t lie. Could run these off their feet?
Jemerica should have gone close last start. Down 0.5kg today with Thornton onboard.. not really a fan of his to say but is decent on a run on horse. Ability to win.
Mokoro very disappointing last prep didn’t measure up. Can improve has ability.
Paddy’s Gem good first up, needs to find more but off 51.5kg is right in this at weights.
Comments: One of the toughest races of the day. Paddy’s Gem has to be respected off 51.5kg after the first up run.
Confidence 60%
Quaddie Leg Two: 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 10
Strategy: Paddy’s Gem on top. Smaller bet Copper.
Caulfield Race 7
Word of Mouth is heavy unders for me today. Good barrier today but will they really get a more forward position? Down to 56kg does help alot but I think this guy is best suited by a longer straight and the track won’t help today.
Turnitaround ran very well to get within a length of Refulgent last start. Maps to sit just off the pace and will be in a prime position today. Rated highly.
The money has come for The Terricks today and should run well. I can’t have from the barrier today.
Written is a frustrating horse. Showed her best run all prep last start and improved significantly. Wants the ground dead and gets that today. Rates well and maps well.
Cuban Lass looks the untapped danger to the field. Continues to improve and best run was last start behind Dig A Pony. Can improve today and barrier 5 is really positive.
Comments: Happy to bet around the favourite here.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 2, 11, 13
Strategy: Turnitaround on top from Cuban Lass.
Caulfield Race 8
Bagman has been costly the last two runs going very well but not winning. Barrier 4 but 60kg again. Is this easier than previous runs? Probably. Been well found at the price.. is Good his best track condition?
Kindergarden Kid and De Fine Lago both look over the odds but I can’t back either for large amounts if i did.
Fulgur is a cat but should map well enough today to threaten and this is probably his best chance in the past three runs. Weighted well enough also.
Sir John Hawkwood has again been well backed but on previous runs this prep I couldn’t touch this poison price. Happy to fade.
Morant was huge last start. Has to be respected at weight even though i have no idea what he is doing at this distance.
Surpass is a good horse but needs a longer distance.
Rugged Cross has to be forgiven for last two runs and rated on three back.. 54kg but up in class and can you trust him?
Thumbtacks has been flat as a tack all prep but 51kg..
Midnight Glory 52kg today.. 7 day backup Weir stable up to 1800m where he last won at course and distance last year on this surface type. Looks like a Weir stitch up!
Second King has to be respected for last two runs. Can improve but has to find more to be honest.
Comments: Going the value again. Morant was huge last start. I have to respect that run even if this is a strange distance for him… he is weighted so well. Midnight Glory has all the trademarks of a Weir form turn around and Kindergarden Kid is reaching the distances to win as a blowout.
Confidence 65%
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 2, 4, 7, 11
Strategy: Small bet Morant. Smaller bet Midnight Glory to win. Even smaller bet Kindergarden Kid.
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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