Welcome to The Profits guide to the 2014 Brownlow Medal.
Charlie was all but in Ablett’s grasp when he got injured late in the year and the Brownlow Medal count is set to be much more exciting than we were all expecting. Joel Selwood who went close last year is the $2.90 favourite to take it out this year, but has been friendless in the markets all day drifting from $2.70. Our numbers agree with market predictions that Selwood will finish on top, but that does all depend on whether Stevie J takes some of the early votes off him which could decide his Brownlow fate. No matter which brownlow spreadsheet I look at, Gary Ablett is there or thereabouts within 1 vote or sharing the win, but none have him the outright winner. Most spreadsheets, including ours, suggest Nate Fyfe be taking home or sharing the brownlow tonight if he hadn’t been suspended.
The late, smart money, has been all for Josh Kennedy from Sydney who has firmed in $1.50 since this morning and our votes plus many others him him just up there. Scott Pendlebury has been the other found in the market since this morning moving in 4 points from 7th to 5th favourite (mainly helped by the drift on Heppell and Lewis). It’s worth noting that Tom Rockliff vs Dyson Heppell market with Tab has moved from Rockliff being the underdog to being a $1.36 favourite.
Unlike previous years, our focus isn’t on recommending plays, but pointing out plays we feel are value based on our numbers and numbers provided from a few other spreadsheets we have got out hands onto.
We are more than happy to share with you our final vote spreadsheet as well so you can follow along at home or compare our numbers with yours.
Download our 2014 Brownlow Medal Spreadsheet here.
Teams
There are a few Teams bets that stand out to us. Dangerfield and Harvey as listed below are a fair way clear on our and a few other spreadsheets and all of the ones I have seen have them both winning. David Swallow looks the main value in a wide-open Gold Coast team outside of Ablett.
Short but good
Adelaide – Patrick Dangerfield $1.42
North Melbourne – Brent Harvey $1.45
Value
Gold Coast without Ablett – David Swallow $4.25
Most Team Votes
Every spreadsheet, including ours, has Sydney winning the Most Team Votes by at least a few votes. This is probably our most confident bet of the Brownlow, especially with their finishing ladder position.
Sydney at $1.70
Round 4 Leader – Without Selwood
This market has been absolutely smashed throughout the year. Stevie J was a $10 chance when I had a small go early in the year and i’m kicking myself now after seeing the spreadsheets i’ve received. Interestingly, our own spreadsheet compiled by out AFL writer Rover doesn’t have Stevie J polling as high, but the other ones I have seen do back up my bias for Stevie J’s first four games of the season. Ablett is the clear and only danger while Cotchin is the 3rd rated chance in the market.
Back Steve Johnson $1.95 (posted this 3 weeks ago on twitter at $2.50)
Saver Gary Ablett $4.25
Ineligible Players to Win Brownlow / Most Votes markets
How close can Fyfe go? There looks some slight value here with his extra potential polling and his votes per game ratio from last few years.
Nathan Fyfe $3.65
Top 5 Finish
Josh Kennedy (Sydney) at $1.80
Jordan Lewis (Hawthorn) at $3.00
Head to Head
Tom Liberatore $2 vs Callan Ward
Bryce Gibbs $1.42 vs Stephen Hill
*Most of the above is based on Sportsbet markets. Have a deeper look around all the markets available to get your best H2H and prices.
