Welcome to the 2015 AFL preview. Footy is finally back after a preseason that feels like it has extended an eternity. The season is starting a few weeks later this year due to the Cricket World Cup and a lack of off field controversy/newsworthy football items has kept AFL content out of the papers, which adds to the break feeling longer than usual. That is probably a good thing after the Essendon drugs saga left a large percentage of the sporting community tired of AFL, but that hunger for footy appears to have returned. It has also helped that some rival codes have been in the news for all the wrong reasons, which is perhaps helping clean up a slightly tarnished Australian Rules reputation. In saying that, the recent news of Ryan Crowley proves the drug problem is spread across all codes.
2014 saw Hawthorn earn a second consecutive premiership to be now considered one of the great modern teams. It goes into the 2015 season as the premiership favourite and to complete the rare achievement of a “three-peat”. While there are some who believe their aging list could be on the slide, the Hawks have managed to strengthen a weakness by recruiting James Frawley to fill a key position defensive post. Hawthorn won’t be leaving the top four any time soon.
For this preview we take a look at the prospects of each club, assessing key changes, the draw, squad balance and any other factors that will help determine whether a team’s premiership clock is about to strike 12 or if a rebuilding list will be vulnerable to a bottom 4 finish. On first impressions, the season looks likely to be tight again with a large number of sides capable of a top eight finish.
Adelaide Crows
Premiership Odds: $26.00
2015 Coach Phil Walsh
Additions: Charlie Cameron (rookie promotion), Kyle Cheney (trade), Luke Lowden (trade) Jake Lever (ND), Harrison Wigg (ND), Mitch McGovern (ND), Harry Dear (ND), Reilly O’Brien (RD), Keenan Ramsey (RD), Anthony Wilson (RD)
Deletions: Angus Graham (delisted), Lewis Johnston (delisted), Shaun McKernan (delisted), Jared Petrenko (delisted), Jason Porplyzia (retired), Ben Rutten (retired), Luke Thompson (delisted), Alex Spina (delisted).
The Adelaide Crows go into 2015 with a new coach after Brenton Sanderson couldn’t live up to the expectation of a 2012 Preliminary Final. 2013 and 2014 produced two bottom ten results and the board moved quickly, some say prematurely, to replace Sanderson with new coach Phil Walsh. 11 wins wasn’t a total disaster for the Crows, but on the back of a soft draw, there were expectations of a finals berth at the very least.
Phil Walsh has stated numerous times since he was appointed coach that the side must improve its defence. It was ranked 11th defensively throughout 2014 averaging 86.7 points per game, but that blew out to an enormous 110.4 points per game against the top eight sides. Adelaide were one of the more enjoyable sides to watch last year due to their attacking flare, but that left them more often than not exposed to opposition counter attacks. It is certainly an area that Phil Walsh will be looking to rectify as early as possible.
As I stated earlier, there was nothing to worry about when it came to Adelaide on the attack in 2014. It was ranked third for points scored at 98.9 per game and averaged 55 inside 50s per game, fourth in the competition. When you are getting the ball inside 50 that often with the likes of Walker, Jenkins, Podsiadly and Betts, it is inevitable that big scores will come. The midfield must work hard and run both directions to ensure the floodgates don’t open up the other way, which could mean that Dangerfield and Sloane won’t be seen in the goal kickers as often as we are used to. Unfortunately young midfield gun Brad Crouch will miss the first couple of months of the season due to a foot injury.
VERDICT: The Crows will be one of a few clubs fighting for the final 1-2 positions in the top eight. Walsh has looked to add further depth in defence by recruiting Kyle Cheney from Hawthorn and highly rated versatile defender Jake Lever in the draft. The Crows have a nicely balanced draw and only meet two top eight sides from 2014 in Geelong and West Coast. Unfortunately it looks likely the club will have to deal with ongoing speculation on the future of superstar midfielder Patrick Dangerfield throughout the year, which could create an unwanted distraction.
Predicted Ladder Range: 7-11
Brisbane Lions
Premiership Odds: $51.00
2015 Coach Justin Leppitsch
Additions: Harris Andrews (academy nomination), Dayne Beams (trade), Allen Christensen (trade), Josh Clayton (father-son), Liam Dawson (academy nomination), Mitch Robinson (DFA), Josh Watts (ND) Jaden McGrath (ND), Josh McGuinness (ND), Billy Evans (RD), Hugh Beasley (RD), Cian Hanley (Int), Matthew Hammelmann (AR)
Deletions: Jonathan Brown (retired), Jack Crisp (traded), Jordan Lisle (delisted), Ashley McGrath (retired), Brent Moloney (retired), Joel Patfull (traded), James Polkinghorne (delisted), Andrew Raines (delisted), Patrick Wearden (delisted), Sam Michael (delisted), Nick Hayes (delisted), Isaac Conway (delisted).
It was only 18 months ago that five young promising Brisbane players in Polec, Longer, Docherty, Yeo and Karnezis asked to be traded elsewhere during the 2013 trade period. At the time there was a genuine fear among the AFL hierarchy that the shine to play for Brisbane had worn off and that the club could be in for an extended time of hardship. Come 12 months later and Brisbane have had two very good players in Dayne Beams and Allen Christensen land on their doorstep. It couldn’t have come at a better time as it gives reassurances to the club and supporters that the best players in the land are happy to ply their trade in Brisbane.
There weren’t too many expectations placed on the Lions in 2014 after such an exodus of players and while it did end up finishing bottom four, it would have been pleased to chalk up seven victories. The Lions could only manage one victory up to Round 10, but it showed constant improvement throughout the second half of the year, highlighted by big victories against Gold Coast and Collingwood late in the season. Justin Leppitsch will be looking to build on that encouraging finish and it appears he has been given the time to do so.
Clearance numbers were a massive issue for Brisbane in 2013 and it only got worse in 2014. There was no other team in the competition last year that got beaten more in the clearance and contested possession counts. This is where Beams and Christensen will be most important as they were both elite in these areas at Collingwood and Geelong respectively. Unfortunately they won’t be joined by the ever improving Pearce Hanley until the second half of the second due to a hip injury, after he produced some breathtaking performances late in the year through the middle. Another area for concern will be the inexperienced tall forward structure, which is likely to be led by Daniel McStay, Michael Close and Jonathan Freeman when he returns from injury.
VERDICT: The late season form of Brisbane has me optimistic that it can potentially push for the eight. The inclusions of Beams and Christensen fill gaping holes at the contests and potentially push the likes of Rockliff, Rich and Zorko to more dangerous positions either forward or behind the ball. The tall forward options are a concern though and probably means that the midfield will be expected to produce a large percentage of goals. The Lions have been given one of the better fixtures, playing just the one top eight side twice (North Melbourne) and needing to deal with the equal least amount of six day breaks (three).
Predicted Ladder Range: 8-12
Carlton Blues
Premiership Odds: $51.00
2015 Coach Mick Malthouse
Additions: Kristian Jaksch (traded), Liam Jones (traded), Mark Whiley (traded), Matthew Dick (DFA), Jason Tutt (PD), Blaine Boekhorst (ND), Dillon Viojo-Rainbow (ND), Clem Smith (ND), Jayden Foster (ND), Billy Gowers (RD), Brad Walsh (RD), Tom Fields (RD), Fraser Russell (NRR).
Deletions: Josh Bootsma (delisted), Nick Duigan (delisted), Jeff Garlett (traded), Kane Lucas (delisted), Andrew McInnes (delisted), Brock McLean (delisted), Mitch Robinson (delisted), Tom Temay (delisted), Jarrad Waite (free agent), Luke Reynolds (delisted), Heath Scotland (retired), Jaryd Cachia (delisted).
Another Carlton season, another extremely disappointing return. I say “another” based on the fact that it originally missed the 2013 finals series too, but Essendon got them out of jail there. A team with the experience of Carlton should be producing far more than seven wins, especially considering the reputation of its coach. Mick Malthouse will pass Jock McHale’s long standing coaching record of 713 games during season 2015, but he desperately needs to find a way to turn the fortunes of the Blues around to keep a job beyond this year.
The Blues will enter the season with a much younger looking list after some experienced names departed the club. Waite, Scotland, Garlett, McLean and Robinson have all played key roles in the Carlton best 22 over the years, but won’t be seen in 2015. It will also have a number of players fighting to be fit for the early rounds of the season, with the likes of Andrew Walker and the chronically injured Matthew Kreuzer batting lower body injuries. The Blues could well be fielding an unfamiliar team for the traditional Thursday night season opener against Richmond.
Bryce Gibbs became one of the elite players of the competition in 2014 with a long awaited move to the midfield finally fulfilled. He led Carlton for disposals, clearances and tackles to win the Carlton best and fairest and justify his number one draft selection in 2006. While Gibbs was outstanding in his move to a more contested role, his class was probably missed on the outside. The Blues conceded the fourth highest scores from turnovers last year, averaging 55.9 points per game. While they didn’t turn the ball over that often, when they did it resulted in a score 25.9% of the time.
VERDICT: Finals is a must for Mick Malthouse and his side. I personally can’t see it happening as there are still holes in the structure. Malthouse would love to have two of Lachie Henderson, one at each end of the ground, but it appears that Casboult and Liam Jones will be relied upon up forward. The midfield still looks great on paper with Judd, Murphy, Gibbs and the fitter Dale Thomas, but the depth drops off quickly. I’m not expecting too much improvement at all from Carlton, despite it being drawn a favourable fixture.
Predicted Ladder Range: 10-15
Collingwood Magpies
Premiership Odds: $34.00
2015 Coach Nathan Buckley
Additions: Jack Crisp (traded), Levi Greenwood (traded), Darcy Moore (father-son), Travis Varcoe (traded),Jordan De Goey (ND) Brayden Maynard (ND), Matthew Goodyear (ND), Michael Manteit (RD), Brenden Abbott (RD), Mason Cox (Int).
Deletions: Luke Ball (retired), Dayne Beams (traded), Martin Clarke (retired), Heritier Lumumba (traded), Quinten Lynch (retired), Nick Maxwell (retired), Caolan Mooney (delisted), Peter Yagmoor (delisted), Ben Hudson (retired).
Collingwood had a 2014 season to forget, missing the final eight for the first time since 2005. It had been a long run at the upper end of the ladder, but there are now signs that the Pies could take some time to get back to such highs. Collingwood have lost a large chunk of experience over the offseason due to trades and retirement, leaving plenty of positions for the enthusiastic youngsters to make their own. Unfortunately, the likes of Dayne Beams, Luke Ball, Heritier Lumumba and Nick Maxwell aren’t going to be replaced with a click of the finger. Supporters are going to have to be patient and allow the development process time to take shape.
You could see that fortunes of Collingwood begin to change at the halfway mark of the 2014 season, after a very promising start to the year. At the end of Round 12, the Pies found themselves fourth on the ladder with a win/loss ratio of 8-3. From there, Collingwood could only manage another three wins for the season as the work load was left to a few consistent senior players. During the final eleven games, Buckley’s men averaged a disturbing 53.6 less disposals than its opponent, by far the worst in the competition. The loss of Dayne Beams to Brisbane will likely create further responsibility for the likes of Pendlebury, Sidebottom and Swan, but the recruitment of Levi Greenwood lessens the blow to a degree. In saying that, an ankle injury to Greenwood means we are unlikely to see him for many weeks either.
Collingwood will be desperate to have a cleaner bill of health throughout 2015, after senior players were constantly struck down last year. One of the unluckiest was Ben Reid, who could only manage four games in 2014. The former All Australian is still struggling with a lingering calf injury that has now derailed his preseason. When he does become fit, he will vital as either support to Travis Cloke up forward or provide required experience to a youthful looking defence. Buckley has indicated that the latter is more likely.
VERDICT: There are some calling for Buckley’s head should the Pies not make the finals again in 2015. I’d be very surprised if the club hasn’t recognised that it is now heading into a development period and have already decided that Buckley is the man to lead any rebuild. Considering the trouble Collingwood went to ensuring Buckley was the next man at the helm, you’d expect he’d be given more than four seasons after inheriting an aging list. For the time being Collingwood will be banking on its core of experienced stars and youth to make the finals, which will be a tough task.
Predicted Ladder Range: 10-15
Essendon Bombers
Premiership Odds: $31.00
2015 Coach James Hird
Additions: Patrick Ambrose (rookie promotion), Adam Cooney (traded), Jonathan Giles (traded), James Gwilt (free agent), Kyle Langford (ND), Jayden Laverde (ND), Shaun McKernan (RD), Conor McKenna (Int).
Deletions: Sean Gregory (delisted), Kyle Hardingham (delisted), Leroy Jetta (delisted), Patrick Ryder (traded), Dylan Van Unen (delisted), Johnny Rayner (delisted), Fraser Thurlow (Delisted), Cory Dell’Olio (delisted).
Essendon enter the 2015 season with the never ending drugs controversy still lingering after it was all first made public over two years ago. Suspensions continue to hang over the heads of 17 current players on the list, who have all been provisionally sidelined and replaced by a group of handpicked state league players to participate throughout the NAB Challenge fixtures. The Bombers continue to wait for the most important ruling of the saga to date. A declaration on whether 34 current and past players were administered the banned substance Thymosin beta 4 will be announced on March 31st, just two days before the season begins. After showing encouraging signs on the field by making the finals and ultimately going down to North Melbourne in a tight elimination final, the Bombers would have loved to carry on that momentum to the preseason. It hasn’t been given that opportunity.
One of the more fascinating aspects of Essendon to look forward to is James Hird returning to the fold after being relieved by Mark Thompson for a season. Thompson bought his “defence first” philosophy from his successful Geelong days to make Essendon a far tighter unit. The Bombers conceded the fourth least amount of points during the home and away rounds, 78.14 points per game against. Under Hird in 2013, Essendon averaged an extra 14.4 points per game, but on the flip side, that side also leaked an extra 12.77 points per game against. It will be extremely interesting to see if Hird continues on with the successful Thompson defensive structures or if he backs himself by implementing a game plan similar to that of 2013. You’d expect something close to Thompson, as the Bombers still averaged the fifth most inside 50s per game last year. Hird will surely look at making those entries more effective.
VERDICT: It is difficult to predict much at all until we get a verdict on whether the 17 currently listed players in question are suspended or not. If they are free to play, you’d suspect that Essendon will be in the mix for a top six finish. Even if that does occur, how much of an impact does the interrupted preseason have on the side? New implementations are yet to be trialed properly and may be experimented for the first time during premiership games. Thompson definitely made changes that improved this team, but can Hird make the final touches to see Essendon challenge the top four? Lots of questions, so I’d wait for further information and see before committing anything toward Essendon.
Predicted Ladder Range: 6-10
Fremantle Dockers
Premiership Odds: $9.00
2015 Coach Ross Lyon
Additions: Lachlan Weller (ND), Connor Blakely (ND), Ed Langdon (ND), Josh Deluca-Cardillo (ND), Ethan Hughes (RD), Sean Hurley (Int).
Deletions: Kepler Bradley (retired), Scott Gumbleton (retired), Josh Simpson (delisted), Sam Menegola (delisted), Michael Wood (delisted).
After reaching the 2013 Grand Final and producing a respectable performance against Hawthorn, there was much expectation placed on Fremantle for season 2014. It finished in the top four with a win/loss ratio of 16-5, but its finals series was nothing more than a nightmare. Not many expected Fremantle to win a qualifying-final against the highly rated Swans at ANZ Stadium, but after leading by 31 points late in the second quarter and not taking advantage of many opportunities during the semi-final against Port Adelaide, many believed the Dockers could run away with it in the second half. It wasn’t meant to be as a Robbie Gray inspired Port Adelaide took the game by the horns in the second half to cruise to a 22 point win. Fremantle’s premiership window is still open, but Ross Lyon must take advantage of a list that is aging.
Fremantle was overtaken for the title of best defensive outfit based on total points during last year’s home and away rounds, but its reputation for being miserly was well and truly its number one trait again. It averaged just 70.73 points per game last year, just a slight rise of the 69 point average in 2013. It is a tactic of Ross Lyon that is tried and proven for many years, so don’t expect too much to change there. Unfortunately for the Dockers that average rose to 99 points during its two finals losses and considering they only conceded two 100+ totals during the home and away rounds, it must be questioned whether Lyon’s structures broke down under pressure.
The Dockers were hardly heard during the free agency and trade period. Ross Lyon would argue that he is more than happy with the state of the list, but surely you couldn’t completely ignore the opportunity to strengthen your squad when premierships are still a realistic option. Perhaps Fremantle were scared off by the epic failure of Colin Sylvia or maybe the type of player they wanted didn’t become available? I guess we’ll never know.
VERDICT: If the Dockers want to win its first premiership in the short term future, their time is now and the clock is ticking. Fremantle will possess 2015’s oldest list and while young stars like Nate Fyfe and Stephen Hill have plenty of time ahead of them, there are 11 players aged 29 or over who don’t. Unfortunately the club has entered the uncertainty of drug controversy, as Ryan Crowley awaits a hearing for his positive match day test. He is an important part of the defensive structure, meaning Lyon will need to make unwanted adjustments. Fremantle have a brutal first month, which could make or break their season with games against Port Adelaide, Geelong (away), West Coast and Sydney. Fremantle will be in contention for one of the final top four positions.
Predicted Ladder Range: 4-8
Geelong Cats
Premiership Odds: $14.00
2015 Coach Chris Scott
Additions: Mark Blicavs (rookie promotion), Mitch Clark (traded), Rhys Stanley (traded), Sam Blease (DFA), Nakia Cockatoo (ND), Cory Gregson (ND), Dean Gore (ND), Jordan Cunico (ND), Tom Read (RD), Cameron Delaney (RD), Padraig Lucey (Int).
Deletions: Mitchell Brown (delisted), George Burbury (delisted), Allen Christensen (traded), Joel Hamling (delisted), Taylor Hunt (delisted), Jordan Schroder (delisted), Jesse Stringer (delisted), Travis Varcoe (traded), Nick Bourke (delisted), Jackson Sheringham (delisted).
Geelong competed in its 10th finals series in 11 seasons during 2014 to lengthen the club’s most successful VFL/AFL era. It yet again had a top four finish and claimed the equal most wins (17) for the home and away rounds with Sydney and Hawthorn, but like Fremantle couldn’t take advantage of the double chance and went down in straight sets. The usual tenacity shown by Geelong against Hawthorn appeared to wane for the first time in years as the Hawks ran away to a comfortable win in the qualifying-final. The Cats were then outplayed for three quarters against North Melbourne in the semi-final, before Tom Hawkins lifted his side late with three goals within minutes to almost steal a miraculous win. To was all too little too late as North got home by 6 points.
The stoppages were once again a disaster for Geelong in 2014, ranking stone cold 18th in the competition at only 34 per game. There was far too much reliance on Joel Selwood and Steve Johnson at the contests, as the opposition cleared the packs at will. The constant injuries to ruckmen Dawson Simpson and Hamish McIntosh didn’t help the situation, especially during the finals when they were both again absent. While he only played 8 games in 2014, Allen Christensen is an elite clearance winner and a massive loss. It has been earmarked that veterans Jimmy Bartel and James Kelly will return to more contested midfield roles this year, but the likes of Caddy, Horlin-Smith and Jansen must continue to improve.
After trading James Podsiadly at the end of 2013, Geelong created an unhealthy reliance on Tom Hawkins kicking goals last year as no other 190cm+ player kicked more than 11 goals. Hawkins was targeted inside 50 33% of the time, followed by Jimmy Bartel who constantly contested above his height. Based on those statistics, it is little wonder that Chris Scott and Stephen Wells were so keen on recruiting more forward options. Mitch Clark and Rhys Stanley will be important structurally forward, but also offer relief in the ruck.
VERDICT: Many are expecting the Cats to slide, but some have been calling that for years. Geelong desperately needed to find support for Hawkins and they did so by snatching Clark and Stanley, even though they are risky propositions. The stoppages are the real concern as there doesn’t appear to be a real solution implemented. It just can’t continue to be belted in the clearance counts, which I feel will prohibit a top four finish and vital second chance. The Cats must also counter what Champion Data has described as the toughest draw.
Predicted Ladder Range: 4-8
Gold Coast Suns
Premiership Odds: $26.00
2015 Coach: Rodney Eade
Additions: Andrew Boston (rookie promotion), Josh Hall (rookie promotion), Mitch Hallahan (traded), Nick Malceski (free agent), Peter Wright (ND, Jarrod Garlett (ND), Touk Miller (ND), Josh Glenn (RD), Adam Saad (RD), Keegan Brooksby (RD), Tyrone Downie (RD), Andrew Raines (RD).
Deletions: Jackson Allen (delisted), Nathan Bock (retired), Campbell Brown (delisted), Karmichael Hunt (retired), Jack Hutchins (delisted), Tom Murphy (retired), Jeremy Taylor (delisted), Matthew Warnock (delisted), Leigh Osborne (delisted).
After being in charge for the first four seasons, inaugural Gold Coast Suns coach Guy McKenna was not given the opportunity to see out his contracted fifth year after his side finished an underwhelming 12th with just 10 victories. Rodney Eade has been employed to take the Suns to the next level, which is assumed to offer much success over the coming years. The Suns started 2014 in brilliant fashion, finding itself third on the ladder after Round 10 with a win/loss ratio of 7-2. Admittedly, the fixture was soft to start the season, but it was the perfect platform to build from against the top teams. Unfortunately for Guy McKenna, the Suns could only manage another three wins for the season, which wasn’t helped by Gary Ablett obtaining a year ending shoulder injury in Round 16.
The Suns are slowly but surely developing into a very good stoppage side, after Gary Ablett ran a one man show for the first couple of years. Gold Coast averaged the second most clearances last year after only Hawthorn, collecting 40.2 per game. It also boasted impressive contested possession numbers, averaging fourth for the competition with 144.3 per game. The Suns are developing a game style which will eventually stand up in finals, but it is now time to improve its outside impact. The first aspect Rodney Eade will be looking at is disposal efficiency, where Gold Coast were ranked 18th in the competition at 70.1%. An attempt to rectify that began during the trade period last year, when elite ball user Nick Malceski was signed as a free agent from Sydney. Malceski earned All Australian honours in 2014 and will become the new go to man for kick ins.
VERDICT: The Suns are now entering its fifth season and the expectations are lifting fast. But are the Suns really ready yet? They still possess the second youngest squad of all the 18 teams, while there are only six listed players in Ablett, Malceski, Harbrow, Rischitelli, Raines and Broughton who have played over 100 games. That is hardly the demographic of a top four side. In saying that, the Suns have again been gifted a soft opening two months, playing just one finalist in the opening eight rounds. It also plays just one finalist twice, so the fixture alone could be enough give the Suns a maiden finals berth if the rise of improvement is similar to last year.
Predicted Ladder Range: 7-11
GWS Giants
Premiership Odds: $101.00
2015 Coach Leon Cameron
Additions: Jeremy Finlayson (academy nomination), Ryan Griffen (traded), Joel Patfull (traded), Jack Steele (academy nomination), Jarrod Pickett (ND), Caleb Marchbank (ND), Paul Ahern (ND), Patrick McKenna (ND).
Deletions: Tom Boyd (traded), Sam Frost (traded), Jonathan Giles (traded), Stephen Gilham (retired), Josh Hunt (retired), Kristian Jaksch (traded), Jonathan O’Rourke (traded), Mark Whiley (traded).
The Greater Western Sydney Giants got off the bottom of the ladder for the first time by tripling its total wins tally with an encouraging six victories in 2014. It also produced one of the biggest upsets I can remember in Round 1 by knocking off eventual Grand Finalist and crosstown rival the Sydney Swans. The Giants were big players in the offseason trade period, adding now former Western Bulldogs skipper Ryan Griffen and dual Brisbane best and fairest full back Joel Patful. At the same time, it had no chance of keeping No.1 draft pick Tom Boyd, who crossed to the Dogs as part of the Griffen trade on a multi-million dollar contract. The Giants also managed to claim another three top ten draft picks in Pickett, Marchbank and Ahern, while adding the highly rated Jack Steele as an academy selection. To say the Giants had a busy list management period in October and November is an understatement.
Like the Gold Coast Suns, GWS are being tuned into a side that can have an impact deep in September (or October this year). It ranked third in the competition for centre clearances at 12.8 per game, while it ranked first for score percentage win in its attacking half (45%). On the flip side, opponents kicked the ball inside 50 77% of the time from the centre square, making defenders extremely vulnerable. Based on that last statistic alone, it is no surprise to see that the Giants conceded the most inside 50s for the third consecutive season in 2014, while it also leaked the second most points against ahead of wooden spooner St Kilda. Leon Cameron must find a way to close those flood gates.
VERDICT: The Giants are still the youngest side in the competition, but it is beginning to build an experienced and big bodied midfield. A centre circle including Griffen, Ward, Treloar and Mumford in the ruck is as intimidating as any in the league and will take some beating. Defensively in the midfield the Giants have a lot of improvement, but that will come once the younger players get bigger and fitter. The Giants have one of the easier draws by playing just one finalist twice and having only four six day breaks, so 10 wins is a genuinely realistic target.
Predicted Ladder Range: 10-15
Hawthorn Hawks
Premiership Odds: $4.00
2015 Coach Alastair Clarkson
Additions: James Frawley (free agent), Jonathan O’Rourke (traded), Zac Webster (rookie promotion), Dallas Willsmore (rookie promotion), Dan Howe (ND), Teia Miles (ND), Marc Pittonet (ND), Jared Hardisty (RD), Jermaine Miller-Lewis (RD), Lachlan Langford (RD),
Deletions:Kyle Cheney (traded), Dayle Garlett (delisted), Mitch Hallahan (traded), Jordan Kelly (delisted), Luke Lowden (traded), Brad Sewell (retired), Ben Ross (delisted), Derick Wanganeen (delisted).
Hawthorn backed up its brilliant 2013 season with yet another Premiership, destroying Sydney in a surprisingly one sided Grand Final. The Hawks went into the season decider as an outsider with the punters, but never gave Sydney an opportunity to get into the game. The statistics told a story of dominance, as Hawthorn lead disposals +144, inside 50s +20, marks inside 50 +8 and contested possession +10. You could argue that the 42 point half time margin didn’t quite justify Hawthorn’s superiority, but it was more than enough to ensure they had full control of the game. The Hawks now go into 2015 with an extremely good chance of back to back to back Premierships, which is these days more commonly referred to as a three-peat.
When you look back at season statistics, Hawthorn were a more than justified Premiership winner. It was ranked first for disposals, disposal efficiency, clearances and points scored, four areas that are all vital for successful sides. Disposal efficiency has arguably Hawthorn’s greatest strength, as its control from half back to the forward arc was consistently difficult to counter. From there the talented forward structure came into play, as the likes of Roughead, Gunston and Bruest were given scoring opportunities at will. The forward set up certainly didn’t appear to miss the presence of Lance Franklin, even if it would have been stronger with him in it.
One area the Hawks wanted to strengthen was its tall defenders and it did so by snatching Melbourne’s James Frawley right from under Geelong’s noses. There were times during the home and away rounds where Hawthorn were left with only Josh Gibson and Kyle Cheney to man the tall opposition forwards, which on occasions resulted one on one maulings that became match defining. James Frawley fills the hole perfectly as he has the flexibility to play both on monster talls or quicker mid-sized forwards. It also allows a player like Gibson to be freed and play a more attacking role with his good decisions and precision kicking.
VERDICT: The Hawks are very well placed to have another serious crack at the Premiership. The list is aging, but the demographic is still in the window of success. The Hawks have lost some depth in Sewell, Cheney, Lowden and Hallahan, but the best 22 has arguably been strengthened with the addition of James Frawley. As every reigning Premier does, the Hawks have a tough draw playing four 2014 finalists twice, but Clarkson will want his players to embrace that challenge. I’d be very surprised if the Hawks don’t make the preliminary-final again at the very least.
Predicted Ladder Range: 1-3
Melbourne Demons
Premiership Odds: $251.00
2015 Coach Paul Roos
Additions: Sam Frost (traded), Jeff Garlett (traded), Neville Jetta (rookie promotion), Heritier Lumumba (traded), Billy Stretch (father-son), Ben Newton (DFA), Christian Petracca (ND), Angus Brayshaw (ND), Alex Neal-Bullen (ND), Oscar McDonald (ND), Aaron Vanderberg (RD), Mitchell White (RD).
Deletions: Sam Blease (delisted), Shannon Byrnes (retired), Mitch Clark (traded), Mitch Clisby (delisted), James Frawley (free agent), Daniel Nicholson (delisted), James Strauss (delisted), Luke Tapscott (delisted), Dom Barry (retired), Michael Evans (delisted), Alex Georgiou (delisted).
Paul Roos enters his second year as senior coach of Melbourne and will be looking to focus on strengthening its scoring options in 2015. 2014 was all about stemming the flow of scores against and Roos successfully implemented that plan, but in the process the Demons really struggled to build winning scores themselves. Melbourne did secure four victories last year, two against eventual finalists in Richmond and Essendon, while the remaining two came against competitive sides in Carlton and Adelaide. In reality, they should have won a whole lot more as it lost twice to the likes of GWS and the Western Bulldogs, while also going down to St Kilda in Round 1. It can’t afford to lose as often to fellow bottom four sides in 2015 if it wants an improved win/loss ratio.
Roos was desperate to add further experience and mature bodies to his list during the offseason and while he successfully snared the likes of Jeff Garlett, Ben Newton, Heritier Lumumba and Sam Frost, he would have loved to see Frawley and Mitch Clark stay. Even though the Dees didn’t see the best of Frawley last year and didn’t see Clark at all, they both would have held valuable key position posts at either end of the ground. Unfortunately it was never realistic that either would stick around and Melbourne did well to acquire a top three pick and Heritier Lumumba. Melbourne would also be pleased with its draft haul as it strengthened its future midfield with two monster midfielders in Petracca and Brayshaw with picks two and three. Unfortunately we’ll have to wait until 2016 to see Petracca as he recovers from a torn ACL.
VERDICT: Melbourne were easily the lowest scoring side in 2014, as Paul Roos made defensive structures a priority. The Dees are yet to have a 100+ score under Paul Roos, but as I stated earlier, there will be a greater emphasis placed on forward half productivity in 2015. Melbourne also looked to tire in the second half of the season as it struggled to be competitive and ultimately didn’t win a game after Round 13. Another preseason in the young legs will help with that. The Dees have been presented an attractive draw with 13 games at the MCG and double ups against the Western Bulldogs, GWS and St Kilda. Results against those other bottom four candidates will be vital in determining whether Melbourne improve its win/loss ratio.
Predicted Ladder Range: 16-18
North Melbourne Kangaroos
Premiership Odds: $13.00
2015 Coach Brad Scott
Additions: Shaun Higgins (free agent), Joel Tippett (rookie promotion), Kayne Turner (rookie promotion), Jarrad Waite (free agent), Sam Durdin (ND), Daniel Nielson (ND), Ed Vickers-Willis (ND), Braydon Pruess (RD), Will Fordham (RD)..
Deletions: Liam Anthony (delisted), Tom Curran (delisted), Cameron Delaney (delisted), Levi Greenwood (traded), Taylor Hine (delisted), Mitchell Wilkins (delisted), Tim McGenniss (delisted).
Brad Scott now possesses a side that will have to handle the expectations of a 2014 preliminary-final berth, after finishing a disappointing tenth in 2013. Scott sees this season as a realistic opportunity to take the next step and has recruited accordingly, bringing in another forward target in Jarrad Waite and adding further class with Shaun Higgins. Unfortunately in the process North has lost arguably it’s most consistent midfielder and biggest improver of 2014 in Levi Greenwood, who couldn’t resist the security and money on offer from Collingwood. After a finals series that saw it defeat Essendon and Geelong in tight knockout matches, the experience from such encounters is sure strengthen this side for another serious top four tilt.
Brad Scott changed his side’s priorities in 2014 with a far greater emphasis on defensive structures. It saw what most described as an aggressive freewheeling game plan become somewhat stagnant, but it certainly worked. North Melbourne were only bettered by the experienced defensive set ups of Fremantle and Sydney when it came to back half efficiency, which saw it consistently more competitive. Although when you choose to take a more defensive outlook, your attacking prowess is always going to take a hit. It saw North Melbourne average 14 fewer points per game and amazingly concede a negative forward 50 entry differential throughout the entire season. For a top four side to hold a negative differential in that statistic, it proves just how efficient North Melbourne were when it did enter the forward arc.
An area where North Melbourne could bring in the gap between the top teams is at the contests, where it was ranked 12th for clearances in 2014. Todd Goldstein proved that he is one of the premier ruckmen in the league with an enormous second half to the season, but the midfield didn’t take full advantage to his first touch. The loss of Greenwood is going to hurt this area further, which makes the potential improvement of Ben Cunnington and Jack Ziebell so important, on top of a fully fit Andrew Swallow.
VERDICT: North Melbourne were the biggest improver in 2014 after a preliminary-final berth. The natural progression expectation of a club in this position is to aim for the last weekend of the season and North Melbourne are at that point. You suspect the middle tier players will require significant improvement for this club to be a genuine contender. The fixture has been relatively kind to North Melbourne, avoiding the three other top four sides twice. That should see the Kangaroos well and truly in the mix for the double chance.
Predicted Ladder Range: 4-6
Port Adelaide
Premiership Odds: $5.50
2015 Coach Ken Hinkley
Additions: Kane Mitchell (rookie promotion), Patrick Ryder (traded), Dougal Howard (ND), Logan Austin (ND), Jesse Palmer (ND), Billy Frampton (ND), Nathan Krakouer (RD), Johann Wagner (The Recruit).
Deletions: Dom Cassisi (retired), Campbell Heath (delisted), Cameron Hitchcock (delisted), Ben Newton (delisted), Lewis Stevenson (delisted), Daniel Flynn (returned to Ireland, still on list), Brent Renouf (delisted).
Port Adelaide continued its progression from 2013 with a near Grand Final berth, after going down to Hawthorn in an epic preliminary-final by just 3 points. It gained a lot of admirers along the way and now possesses a membership base approaching 60,000, which is sure to give the Adelaide Oval an amazing atmosphere once again. The expectation is high and the likes of Ken Hinkley, David Koch and Robbie Gray are talked of like messiahs by some. Despite missing the top four after being two games clear and percentage at the half way point of the home and away rounds, Port Adelaide lifted to its early season highs for the finals with electric performances against Richmond and Fremantle away, before pushing eventual premier Hawthorn to the end.
One of Port Adelaide’s most respected traits throughout 2014 was its ability to consistently run out games. Darren Burgess became the most respected and highest paid performance manager in the competition last year and it isn’t hard to see why. His strict programs saw Port Adelaide ranked high in most fourth quarter key performance indicators. It ranked second for points scored and contested possession differential, third for points conceded and pressure applied, while also ranking fourth for clearance differential. Those numbers are proof of a disciplined unit and considering this list was the third youngest in the competition last year, there is enormous scope for improvement in the endurance stakes.
Port Adelaide have made minimal list chances over the offseason, but it has captured a big fish in Essendon ruckman Patrick Ryder. Fed up with the ongoing madness of the Essendon drugs controversy, Ryder needed a fresh start and Port swooped. He will become a near perfect partner for Matthew Lobbe, especially considering his ability to rest forward with influence. Of course Port Adelaide will have to wait to use its boom recruit until at least the March 31st ruling, along with Angus Monfries.
VERDICT: Port Adelaide are a genuine Premiership threat in 2015. The side is still young and has plenty of development, but it has no obvious weakness on the ground. While it would prefer to have another big forward to compliment Jay Schulz and Justin Westhoff, they will be provided occasional support from Ryder on top of possessing arguably the most dangerous small forward set up of Robbie Gray, Chad Wingard and Angus Monfries. It has a midfield that has potential to improve and is more importantly made up of numerous options. Ken Hinkley has an extremely talented list in his control.
Predicted Ladder Range: 1-3
Richmond Tigers
Premiership Odds: $23.00
2015 Coach Damien Hardwick
Additions: Anthony Miles (rookie promotion), Taylor Hunt (DFA), Corey Ellis (ND), Connor Menadue (ND), Nathan Drummond (ND), Daniel Butler (ND), Reece Mckenzie (ND), Jayden Short (RD), Jason Castagna (RD), Kane Lambert (ND), Ivan Saldo (NRR).
Deletions: Aaron Edwards (delisted), Brad Helbig (delisted), Daniel Jackson (retired), Jacob King (retired), Brent O’Hanlon (delisted), Orren Stephenson (delisted), Cadeyn Williams (delisted), Ben Darrou (delisted), Todd Banfield (delisted)
The Richmond Football Club had one of the more amazing seasons in the history of our great game. At the end of Round 14, Richmond found itself equal last with only three wins and finals had basically been written off. Round 15 was the beginning of a nine game winning streak that saw Richmond steal eighth position. The emphatic scenes at ANZ Stadium after Richmond’s 3 point win against Sydney will never be forgotten by the supporters, but the first three quarters of the elimination-final may well be as the Tigers finally run out of adrenaline. Despite the first half of the season being a disaster, there is plenty to build from the heroic final nine rounds of the season and it will be expecting more September action.
One thing Richmond will be looking to do in 2015 is spread the goal kicking away from Jack Riewoldt and the resting midfielders. Dustin Martin, Brett Deledio and Trent Cotchin all finished in the top six goal kickers for the Tigers. It desperately needs another tall forward and smaller/medium types in the attacking arc to lessen the load and make Richmond less predictable. While Martin became a match winner when left in the forward 50 one out, there needs to be more options so it doesn’t become too predictable.
Interestingly enough, Damien Hardwick wasn’t interested in being active throughout the trade and free agency periods. Despite there being players available who could fill holes at the Tigers, the list management decision makers weren’t tempted. It instead went to the draft and selected five teenagers, with only one or two likely to have any impact in 2015. Taylor Hunt and prolific Williamstown midfielder Kane Lambert were also additions, but Hardwick appears content that any improvement will come from already listed players like Vlastuin, Lennon and Vickery.
VERDICT: The Tigers enter the 2015 season looking to build on the momentum of nine consecutive wins to finish the home and away rounds. The uncompetitive effort against Port Adelaide was disappointing, but you suspect the side used up all its emotion, mental and adrenalin stocks the week before in Sydney. The 3-10 start was always well below the capabilities of this squad and should be ignored when assessing the prospects of this season. The Tigers have a difficult run home, so it certainly can’t afford to leave its finals run as late this time around.
Predicted Ladder Range: 6-10
St Kilda Saints
Premiership Odds: $501.00
2015 Coach Alan Richardson
Additions: Darren Minchington (rookie promotion), Cam Shenton (rookie promotion), Eli Templeton (rookie promotion), Mav Weller (rookie promotion), Tim Membrey (DFA), Paddy McCartin (ND), Hugh Goddard (ND), Daniel McKenzie (ND), Jack Lonie (ND), Jack Sinclair (RD), Ahmed Saad (RD), Brenton Payne (RD).
Deletions: Trent Dennis-Lane (delisted), Sam Dunell (delisted), James Gwilt (free agent), Lenny Hayes (retired), Clint Jones (delisted), Beau Maister (retired), Terry Milera (player request), Rhys Stanley (traded).
St Kilda proved during 2014 that it is deep into a list rebuild as the club could only manage four victories in finishing on the bottom of the ladder. After Round 5, St Kilda’s fortunes didn’t look so dire as it sat equal fourth with a respectable three victories that could have been built upon. From there it all went pear shaped as it could only muster one more victory for the rest of the season. Strangely enough, that one win came from nowhere as St Kilda completely dominated then top two side Fremantle in Round 18, when the margin got out to a whopping 58 points at full time. Unfortunately it was the only real positive the Saints could clutch results wise, as it constantly found itself out of games early. The margins of the losses were a real concern as eight results blew out to 70 points or more. It must find a way to bring those humiliations back or the low confidence levels will end up having a detrimental effect on the youngster’s development.
The issues for St Kilda were plain for all to see as it continually struggled to win and keep the footy. The Saints ranked second last for disposals, contested possessions and inside 50s, three telling statistics when judging the success of sides. The top sides generally rank highly in at least two of those categories and if you rank in the bottom two in all three, well your club has a lot of work to do. It is absolutely no surprise that St Kilda ranked 17th for points for and 18th for points against based on those previous numbers. Unfortunately there is no quick fix for St Kilda and it must continue blooding these youngsters to ensure they can develop to the rigors of senior football.
VERDICT: Expect more of the same from St Kilda in 2015. This club is many years away from being in a position to contend for a spot in the final eight and it can’t afford to rush the rebuild. We have seen in the past teams like Melbourne attempting to fast track development when it is down on its knees, but it has never proved to be successful. St Kilda currently are the fifth youngest side in the competition and with players like Riewoldt, Montagna, Schneider and Dempster nearing retirement, the Saints are only going to get younger.
Predicted Ladder Range: 16-18
Sydney Swans
Premiership Odds: $4.25
2015 Coach John Longmire
Additions: Abaina Davis (academy nomination), Isaac Heeney (academy nomination), Jack Hiscox (academy nomination), Jake Lloyd (rookie promotion), Xavier Richards (rookie promotion), Daniel Robinson (rookie promotion), James Rose (ND), Sean McLaren (RD), Nic Newman (RD), Lewis Melican (RD), Jordan Foote (AR).
Deletions: Matthew Dick (delisted), Jordan Lockyer (delisted), Nick Malceski (free agent), Tim Membrey (delisted), Ryan O’Keefe (retired), Lewis Roberts-Thomson (retired), Tommy Walsh (delisted), Patrick Mitchell (delisted), Shane Biggs (traded).
The Sydney Swans had a magnificent 2014 and held Premiership favouritism for a majority of the season, but it left one of its worst performances of the year for last when utterly destroyed by Hawthorn in the Grand Final. The Swans ranked first for contested possessions, inside 50s and tackles during 2014, but were ultimately pumped by Hawthorn in all three categories in the big dance. The Swans also ranked fifth overall for uncontested possession and it was here where they were truly outplayed in the Grand Final. The Hawks racked up a massive 300 uncontested possessions, nearly double that of Sydney with 163. John Longmire would have had many sleepless nights trying to figure how everything went so wrong since that dreadful day for the Swans.
We all know Sydney is a team that hunts the contested ball and is very well defensively structured. While these types of implementations can create sometimes ugly or messy football, the Swans would still have been disappointed with its overall disposal efficiency. John Longmire’s men ranked fourteenth in the competition for disposal efficiency, operating at a percentage of 71.6 throughout the year. Despite being the fastest side on the counter attack, efficiency is an area that must improve, especially against the top teams. It is difficult to know exactly where the improvement is going to come from, especially considering Sydney has lost one of its ball users in Nick Malceski to the Gold Coast Suns as a free agent. Gary Rohan played some decent footy late behind the ball, but must become more consistent, while Lewis Jetta has been earmarked to play a half back role. The Swans already get the ball inside 50 more often than any other side, but if it can offer better delivery to the likes of Buddy Franklin, Kurt Tippett and Sam Reid, its average score of 97.16 could explode well over 100 points per game.
VERDICT: The Swans will up the top end of the ladder once again and it needs to be considering the short term investment made toward a big name forward structure. Excluding the first month of the season, the only club Sydney had any issues with were Hawthorn. The Hawks were able to score far too easily against Sydney and that was initiated by superior outside play. Lance Franklin will be looking forward to a full season from Kurt Tippett, who was solid in his 14 games with 34 goals. If the big money forward line fires, Sydney will always be difficult to beat.
Predicted Ladder Range: 1-4
West Coast Eagles
Premiership Odds: $31.00
2015 Coach Adam Simpson
Additions: Callum Sinclair (rookie promotion), Alec Waterman (father-son), Liam Duggan (ND), Tom Lamb (ND), Jackson Nelson (ND), Damien Cavka (ND), Kane Lucas (RD), Corey Adamson (NRR), Patrick Brophy (Int).
Deletions: Jacob Brennan (delisted), Adam Carter (delisted), Dean Cox (retired), Darren Glass (retired), Ash Smith (delisted), Blayne Wilson (delisted), Beau Waters (retired, still on list).
The Eagles had everything going for it in 2014, but it just lacked momentum to be consistently dangerous. Many came into the season thinking West Coast were a sure thing to make finals, especially considering a soft draw, but its inconsistent home form ultimately saw it produce just 11 victories. 11 wins isn’t a disaster season, but had it converted two or three of the six homes losses, finals were a certainty. Domain Stadium (formerly Patersons Stadium) was once a feared interstate trip, but all travelling sides would considering itself a chance in Perth against West Coast over recent seasons. Adam Simpson will be looking to make the home base a fortress again, but with the loss of names like Cox, Glass and Waters, that will be easier said than done.
West Coast became the ultimate flat track bully in 2014, dining out on fellow bottom ten sides. The Eagles soft draw was well documented and you could argue that it took full advantage of it by defeating bottom ten sides 11 times out of 13 games. The fact of the matter though is that it couldn’t defeat any side that finished above tenth. The highly rated forward line reflected the results perfectly as well. Against the bottom ten sides the Eagles had an inside 50 conversion rate of 32%, which spiraled down to 17.5% against the finalists. It wasn’t as if the Eagles weren’t consistent, they just weren’t good enough against the top teams.
Unfortunately for West Coast, injuries have hit it hard early in the season. The courageous but injury ravaged Beau Waters has had to pull up stumps early on his career as the ongoing shoulder injury became too much. Just when you thought the Eagles couldn’t have a more depleted defence with Waters and Glass retiring, near All-Australian full back Eric Mackenzie then tore his ACL in an innocuous landing during the NAB Challenge. Mackenzie is arguably the most important player on West Coast’s list and easily the most difficult to replace. To make matters even worse, Jack Darling has gone down with a foot injury and will miss the first one or two months of the season. Ouch!
VERDICT: It is difficult to know exactly where to place West Coast. The loss of Cox, Glass, Mackenzie, Waters and Darling early will be difficult to comprehend. Cox isn’t as big of an issue with Naitanui and Lycett on the list, but the defence is in tatters. The Eagles have been given a reasonable draw yet again, with Fremantle the only top eight side it plays twice. West Coast must find a way to get through the better sides at home to rise up the ladder.
Predicted Ladder Range: 8-13
Western Bulldogs
Premiership Odds: $501.00
2015 Coach Luke Beveridge
Additions: Shane Biggs (traded), Tom Boyd (traded), Zaine Cordy (father-son), Lin Jong (rookie promotion), Jack Redpath (rookie promotion), Joel Hamling (DFA), Toby McLean (ND), Lukas Webb (ND), Declan Hamilton (ND), Bailey Dale (ND), Caleb Daniel (ND), Roarke Smith (RD), Jordan Kelly (RD),
Deletions: Adam Cooney (traded), Daniel Giansiracusa (retired), Ryan Griffen (traded), Shaun Higgins (free agent), Christian Howard (delisted), Liam Jones (traded), Tom Williams (retired), Tom Young (delisted), Jason Tutt (delisted), Alex Greenwood (delisted), Mark Austin (delisted)
2014 certainly wasn’t the output the Western Bulldogs would have been expecting at the end of the previous season. The final rounds of 2013 were filled with hope and optimism as the Dogs won four of its last six home and away matches to finish on a high. That good form just couldn’t be carried on as the Western Bulldogs registered one less win, which ultimately led to an offseason of drama. Brendan McCartney originally looked like coaching on in 2015, before it become apparent that he had lost the confidence of his players, mainly then skipper Ryan Griffen. To cut a long story short, McCartney was sacked and Ryan Griffen was traded to GWS, leaving a sour taste for those left at Whitten Oval. Luke Beveridge is now in control and has inherited a young list that will need time.
The Western Bulldogs have had a large turnover of players and staff during the offseason, which may take time to gel. A large chunk of experienced have left the club as Adam Cooney, Ryan Griffen and Liam Jones were traded, Daniel Giansiracusa and Tom Williams retired, while Shaun Higgins departed as a free agent. Those exclusions have seen the Dogs become the second least experienced list in the competition, averaging just 46.7 games per player. They are also now the third youngest list at an average age of 23.2, with only Gold Coast and GWS possessing less mature squads. To really give an indication of how inexperienced the Dogs are, there are only ten listed players who were born before 1990. The Dogs seriously lack senior quantity.
The biggest positive of the offseason for the Western Bulldogs was gaining the signature of Tom Boyd on a multi-million dollar contract. The Dogs had a massive hole to fill in the salary cap, so why not use that money to attract one of the most promising young key position players in the competition? Ryan Griffen held currency and was disgruntled, so it made perfect sense to involve him in the trade. Unfortunately there will be unrealistic expectations on Tom Boyd, as he still needs time to develop. He’ll be a great player, but the supporters must be patient.
VERDICT: When you lose the experience of so many senior players after a season that garnered just seven wins, the expectations can’t be held high. The loss of Tom Liberatore to an ACL injury is just a disaster as he was required to carry a large contested load. Matthew Boyd is now left to lead a midfield of kids, which could be on the end of some massive numbers. The Bulldogs are now a genuine wooden spoon contender.
Predicted Ladder Range: 16-18
Predicted Ladder
As always, predicting a final ladder at this time of the year is a difficult task and season 2015 is no different. I’m personally struggling to find big improvers from the bottom eight this time around and beginning to suspect that there won’t be a whole lot of change to what occurred last year. I like looking at the ladder in groups as it gives a more realistic comparison to where the clubs are at. Here is my predicted ladder:
HAWTHORN
PORT ADELAIDE
SYDNEY
NORTH MELBOURNE
FREMANTLE
GEELONG
RICHMOND
GOLD COAST
ESSENDON
ADELAIDE
BRISBANE
WEST COAST
COLLINGWOOD
GWS
CARLTON
MELBOURNE
ST KILDA
WESTERN BULLDOGS
Hawthorn, Sydney and Port Adelaide are the clear top three clubs for mine, I’d be amazed if they aren’t part of the top four makeup. There is then a gap to North Melbourne, Fremantle and Geelong, who’ll all be fighting for that final top four position. This is where it gets difficult, as there are a group of clubs from seventh to fifteenth who are evenly matched and aren’t separated by obvious factors. I probably rate Richmond and Essendon the best of them, but the uncertainty of the latter has me inclined to place them slightly lower. Gold Coast is the most interesting as it once again possesses a good draw and only needs minimal improvement to sneak into the eight. I hold optimism for both Adelaide and Brisbane and it wouldn’t be surprised if either were part of September action. The rest of this group is made up of West Coast, Collingwood, GWS and Carlton who are thereabouts, but I feel the top eight will be a bit of a stretch. From here there is daylight to the bottom three teams, as Melbourne, St Kilda and the Western Bulldogs hold up the rest. I rate the Dees slightly higher, leaving St Kilda and the Dogs to fight it out for the wooden spoon. The Saints elder players may have the edge, especially after the mass loss of senior depth the Dogs have experienced.
Brownlow Medal
$5.00: Gary Ablett
$7.00: Nathan Fyfe
$11.00: Joel Selwood
$12.00: Patrick Dangerfield
$18.00: Matt Priddis
$21.00: Robbie Gray, Lance Franklin, Tom Rockliff, Scott Pendlebury
$23.00: Jobe Watson, Luke Parker, Josh Kennedy (SYD)
$26.00: Travis Boak, Dayne Beams, Dane Swan, Trent Cotchin, Dyson Heppell
PREDICTION: Nathan Fyfe (Fremantle) $7.00
Suspension potentially cost Fyfe the Brownlow last year, in an incident that many that believed was beyond his control. He ended with 25 votes from 20 games, just one behind surprise winner Matt Priddis who had the luxury of playing every game. Fyfe has improved his vote tally every year for the last four seasons and has averaged 1.075 votes per game over the last three years. When he, Mundy and Barlow have had similar outputs, Fyfe more often than not gets the votes. If he can avoid suspension, he’ll be very difficult to beat.
VALUE: Jordan Lewis (Hawthorn) $41.00
A small change of role has made Jordan Lewis a far more prolific player and therefore Brownlow relevant. After averaging 21.83 possessions per game in 2013, Lewis upped the ante to lift that to 27.83. It took a little while for the umpires to realise the influence Lewis was having but once they did, his name was called far more often in the second half of the count. After just 14 votes combined for the previous four years, Lewis beat that with 15 in 2014 alone. He polled 12 votes in the last five games and if he plays the same contested midfield role, the votes should continue.
Coleman Medal
$4.00: Lance Franklin
$8.00: Jarryd Roughead
$9.00: Jack Riewoldt
$11.00: Tom Hawkins, Josh Kennedy (WCE)
$12.00: Jay Schultz
$13.00: Taylor Walker
$14.00: Kurt Tippett
$15.00: Jack Gunston, Jeremy Cameron, Travis Cloke
$21.00: Matthew Pavlich
$26.00: Jake Carlisle, Michael Walters, Mitch Clark
PREDICTION: Lance Franklin (Sydney) $4.00
I feel this is a sure bet if Buddy can stay on the field in 2015. He is already in doubt for Round 1 after a nasty knock against GWS during a NAB Challenge match, but don’t let that put you off. Franklin averaged 5.91 scoring shots per game last year, nearly an extra shot more than the second highest Jarryd Roughead who went at 5.13. Sydney had the most inside 50s of any team during 2014 and will be looking to be more efficient. If the Swans are successful in doing so, Buddy could go even bigger in 2015.
VALUE: Tom Lynch (Gold Coast) $34.00
This is a speculative selection, especially considering Lynch will miss Round 1 through suspension, but the improvement last year was there for all to see. Lynch announced himself to the competition in 2014, kicking 46 goals and becoming the Suns most dangerous key position forward. The 22 year still has plenty of improvement left, despite producing numbers comparable to some of the best forwards in the league last year. He averaged 2 contested marks per game, bettered only by fellow top 20 goal kickers Hawkins and Franklin. He also averaged 2.8 inside 50 marks per game, the same as Jarryd Roughead and Josh Kennedy (WCE). As the Suns results improve, so will Lynch, which makes him such a fascinating prospect. He probably won’t win the Coleman, but $34.00 is far too long.
