A-League Round 26


The good times keep rolling with 3 out of 4 suggested plays landing including 2 underdogs getting it done for us.
The round started off well with Brisbane getting the job done against Melbourne Heart, and you might say that it was obviously the expected result, but it was a pretty good performance. They went down an early goal, managed to get that back, then at the start of the second half went down to 10 men when Berisha was sent off.
Next game was Central Coast hosting Western Sydney. I thought we were in a little bit of trouble here as we headed into injury time 1-1. But thankfully a late goal for Central Coast made the difference and started our weekend off 2 from 2.
Sydney headed down to face Melbourne Victory Saturday night and managed to come away with a draw when the home side was heavily favoured. This was a sit and watch match for us so it wasn’t a big issue, but both teams finals positions are getting very interesting now.
Our only loss for the weekend came at the hand of Adelaide as they travelled to New Zealand and took care of Wellington. I was a little surprised to see that happen but Wellington has dropped off a bit and their chance of playing finals is now done and dusted.
Last game of the round, but certainly not the least was Perth hosting Newcastle. From memory it was Sportingbet that offered up $3.00 about the West Australian team. Granted it wasn’t smooth sailing when Perth was 1-0 down in the 80th minute, but 2 goals in as many minutes ended up topping off another great weekend.

Now we’re off to the second last round of the year before finals and teams are trying to lock in the finals spot if they haven’t already. Again there are 4 games that I’m interested in this week, hopefully we’ll get as good result as last week, if not better.

Happy punting.


Best Value: Adelaide at $1.85 with Sportingbet.
Second Best Value: Perth at $3.00 with most bookmakers.

Adelaide v Melbourne Heart

Friday 4 April 7:00pm (local) – Coopers Stadium

Round 26 kicks off in Adelaide where Melbourne Heart travel to on Friday. Melbourne Heart now can’t mathematically make the finals so it will be interesting to see how much “heart” they put into their performance, they haven’t won a game for over a month and it’s probably unlikely they’ll win another before the seasons out. Adelaide are in a good position, playing well and are now pushing for a home final in the first round of the finals. I think they are a very good team, and they proved that by travelling to New Zealand last week and bringing home all 3 points. I think this will be a very one-sided match and Adelaide should take care of the away side easily. I have them rated the shortest price favourite of the round, right down at $1.56, I almost fell over when I saw that Tatts put up $1.85. That price will not last, I’m almost positive that they have to start shorter than that, all other bookies are shorter. It’s my best value of the round at that price.

Last 5 games:
Adelaide                      2
Draw                            2
Melbourne Heart       1

Rated Prices:
Adelaide                     $1.56
Draw                           $4.61
Melbourne Heart      $7.04

Adelaide                    $1.85 Tatts
Draw                           $3.80 TAB, Betstar
Melbourne Heart      $5.00 Sportingbet

Best Value: Adelaide at $1.85 with Sportingbet.

Newcastle v Melbourne Victory

Saturday 5 April 5:30pm (local) – Hunter Stadium

This is a rather important game from a finals aspect, if Melbourne Victory win or get a draw than they both secure themselves a final 6 position, as well as make it extremely hard for Newcastle to be playing in 2 weeks time. If Newcastle wins, they give themselves a huge push towards the finals. Unfortunately for Newcastle, they haven’t been very good at home this season, actually performing better when they are away from Hunter Stadium. Melbourne Victory also has the shining light of a home final to push them harder if they needed it. Now for the downside for Melbourne Victory, midweek they had to play in Japan, the amount of travelling that they have had to do for the ACL must be catching up with them. The market has Newcastle as slight favourites but I think there is a bigger gap between them considering the circumstances. I have Newcastle at $2.14, with $2.50 available at multiple bookmakers, they may not shorten but I still think they are good value. Over backers will be interested to know that 7 out of the last 8 times these teams have met, 3+ goals have been scored, and the other match, 2 goals hit the back of the net. Look for this to be another goal fest.

Last 5 games:
Newcastle                      2
Draw                               1
Melbourne Victory        2

Rated Prices:
Newcastle                      $2.14
Draw                               $3.70
Melbourne Victory        $3.81

Newcastle                      $2.50 Betstar, Ladbrokes, Tatts
Draw                               $3.50 Betstar
Melbourne Victory        $2.80 Sportingbet

Best Value: Newcastle at $2.50 with Betstar/Ladbrokes/Tatts. 

Perth v Central Coast

Saturday 5 April 6:30pm (local) – NIB Stadium

The inform Central Coast head over to Western Australia to face off with the bottom of the table Perth. While you would think this is a one-sided match, I think there is a little more to it than that. Perth’s home record is rather respectable, winning over 40% of their games there. They will be full of confidence too after coming off a win last week over Newcastle. I actually think it will be a very close game and have less than $0.50 between the 2 clubs. Perth’s finals campaign is long gone, so they may either not really care about the match, or throw all they have at it cause they have nothing to lose. At $3.00 I definitely think they are worth a throw at the stumps, in what should be a tight affair.

Last 5 games:
Perth                                 1
Draw                                 0
Central Coast                  4

Rated Prices:
Perth                                 $2.54
Draw                                 $3.71
Central Coast                  $2.97

Perth                                 $3.00 Most Bookmakers
Draw                                 $3.40 Most Bookmakers
Central Coast                  $2.40 Betstar

Best Value: Perth at $3.00 with most bookmakers.

Western Sydney v Brisbane

Saturday 5 April 5:00pm (local) – Pirtek Park

We have a blockbuster match on this Saturday. A couple of the top teams face off in what should be a great game, Brisbane have locked in their position at the top of the table while Western Sydney have to make sure that they hold onto their home final over the next 2 weeks. The market can barely split the two teams but I think Western Sydney have a bit more of an edge. Brisbane does have an outstanding away record, winning 50% of their road games, a far higher percentage than any other team this season. But they will be tempted to rest some players and Berisha will have to sit this out after getting a red card against Melbourne Heart last week. While it isn’t the best value going around all weekend, the $2.55 for Western Sydney at Sportingbet looks a good price in my eyes.

Last 5 games:
Western Sydney              3
Draw                                  1
Brisbane                           1

Rated Prices:
Western Sydney              $2.26
Draw                                  $3.78
Brisbane                           $3.41

Western Sydney              $2.55 Sportingbet
Draw                                  $3.40 Betstar, TAB
Brisbane                           $2.80 Betstar, Tatts

Best Value: Western Sydney at $2.55 with Sportingbet.

Sydney v Wellington

Sunday 6 April 5:00pm (local) – Allianz Stadium

The round finishes up at Allianz Stadium with Sydney hosting Wellington. Wellington can technically make the finals, it’s a long shot, and anything other than 3 points makes it’s impossible for them to be playing in a couple of weeks time. Sydney have been impressing me lately, and while they couldn’t manage to get anything out of last weeks game against Adelaide, previous to that they had been playing very well. They might struggle in the finals because I think they are a lot more potent at home than they are on the road and the chance of them getting a home final is a real long shot. But they deserve their position in the final 6, and they should hold that comfortably over these last 2 rounds. Unfortunately when it comes to a betting side of things there isn’t much action for us on Sunday, I have Sydney at $1.77 and the best around is $1.90. There doesn’t need to be much of a drift to suck me in though, if they got out a little to $1.95 they would be worth a bet in my opinion, but as it stands I have to sit out and just watch.

Last 5 games:
Sydney                            3
Draw                                0
Wellington                      2

Rated Prices:
Sydney                            $1.77
Draw                                $4.39
Wellington                      $4.84

Sydney                            $1.90 TAB
Draw                                $3.80 Betstar
Wellington                      $5.00 Sportingbet

Best Value: Nothing.

Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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I’ve always been a massive soccer fan, starting with Manchester United in my early days (still love the Red Devils). While I followed the old NSL a little, I really got into Australian soccer once the A-League had been up and going for a couple of years. I’m amazed how it gets bigger and better every year and I’m excited to see where it will go in the future. I also have a keen interest in gambling and trying to use statistics to find an edge that others can’t. As soon as TheProfits asked if I would be interested in writing A-League for them I jumped at the opportunity. I hope that I can pass on some of my knowledge on both soccer and gambling to others, and I always appreciate any feedback or advice, I know that I’ve always got plenty to learn too. And most importantly, I hope I can help others win some cash and send those bookies broke.

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