Welcome to The Profits AFL Round 3 2017 Preview. A fairly stable week overall last week with just the one favourite going down due to poor kicking on the Thursday night in the Pies. There were some teams with clear chances to put away their opposition when leading by tons.. but to the Cats, Dogs and Eagles credit, they found their way back into the match and got the wins.. that is what good teams do. This looks to be another interesting round of matches topped by the top of the table clash between the Power and the Crows. I’m looking forward to a competitive round of matches. Good luck and happy tipping.
Best Bet (3 units): Geelong 1-39 margin @ $2.25
Next Best Bet (2 units): West Coast margin 1-39 @ $2.25
Other Bet (1 unit): Port Adelaide vs Adelaide Total Points Over 197.5 @ $1.90
Other Bet (1 unit): Carlton +30.5 line @ $1.92
Tools and Results
All the key statistics figures and analysis
Full team injury lists and return dates
2017 Betting Spreadsheet of Results
Sydney ($1.32) VS Collingwood ($3.75)
Friday 7.50pm – SCG
Line: Sydney -23.5, Collingwood +23.5
Sydney Swans
The Swans come into this match-up off a 28 and 23 point loss to the Power and Bulldogs. Both teams are 2-0 and the Swans can be forgiven through difficult circumstances last week losing Tippet early in the first QTR after looking so dominant.
Looking at the stats from the game against the Bulldogs, the Swans matched it in the centre with similar Clearances and Rebound 50s. The Dogs got the better of the Hitouts once Tippet went down and that seemed to really turn the match. Similar Inside 50s and Marks inside 50s… Sydney got screwed with 18 frees to 31. A key number for mine is 22 shots on goal to 30 against Swans.
The Swans seem to have a suitable depth to their squad, but when you are missing players like Tippet, Rample, Rohan, Heeney and McVeigh, you are vulnerable against the teams fighting for top 8 like the Pies.
Collingwood Magpies
The Pies have thrown away the first two matches of the season through poor kicking. On both occasions they have hit the required KPIs to be winning games and they just haven’t got the job done.
They controlled and won about 3 QTRs of the game against the Tigers. They dominated the Hitouts and almost every key stat before confidence got the better of them and they started to fall away. The game should have been over and done with early in the 3rd QTR if it wasn’t for them kicking 4 goals 9 behinds followed by 3 goals 4 behinds in the 3rd qtr.
The Pies have gone into the ‘can’t trust’ bin.
Predicted Result
Swans by 15
Betting – Confidence 60%
Sydney 1-39 margin @ $2.20
North Melbourne ($5.50) VS Greater Western Sydney ($1.18)
Saturday 1.45pm – Bludstone Arena
Line: North Melbourne +32.5, Greater Western Sydney -32.5
North Melbourne
The Roos have started the season 0-2 and wouldn’t be looking forward to facing the premiership favourites. The Roos put 31 points on the Cats through to half-time but then failed to see out the match managing just 1 goal 1 behind in the final quarter to allow the Cats to win by 1 point. It was a valid effort, but the Cats put on just 6 tackles in the first QTR and really just didn’t turn up. To be fair also, the Roos played well in the first half all-over.
The end of match stats tell the correct tail of a team that lost by 1 point. The clearances, inside 50s, scoring shots and marks inside 50 were even.
Don’t expect the Kangaroos to roll over and let the Giants simply win this, but they will be coming into this match off a huge disappointment from Sunday night and injuries that makes this task very hard to manage.
Greater Western Sydney
The Giants were very disappointing in Round 1 against the Crows and you can tell they just wanted to make up for it by demolishing the Suns. Smashed it with the Inside 50s 65-42 with 40-18 scoring shots. They won the Hitouts 41-30 and Tackles 51-49. 17-8 Marks Inside 50 and 43-50 Clearances.
So the Giants come into this match with confidence against a 0-2 Kangaroos team. A strong start from the Giants could just very well break the will of the Roos.
Predicted Result
Greater Western Sydney by 32 points
Betting – Confidence 70%
GWS 1-39 margin @ $2.30
Richmond ($2.75) VS West Coast ($1.55)
Saturday 1.45pm – MCG
Line: Richmond +12.5, West Coast -12.5
Richmond Tigers
The Tigers gave it to the Blues in Round 1 and were expected to come out firing, but they were very lackluster against the pies managing just 3 goals in the first half. Lucky for them, the pies were horrid infront of goal and that kept them in the match. They finished strongly over the top late and got the win.
Stats wise, it was a very even display and yes they hit the KPIs needed to win the day, but once again they lost the Hitouts significantly and allowed too many Marks inside 50.
The Tigers are very lucky that this match up is at the MCG which has them in with a more than fighting chance. They will need to start stronger than last week to hold out this straight kicking Eagles outfit.
West Coast Eagles
Don’t underestimate the Eagles based on their last start performance against the Saints. Yes, the Eagles were very lucky the Saints kicked so poorly infront of goal that they had the opportunity to get back into the match, but it takes a real team with heart to fight back from that far down and win convincingly.
The Eagles ended up with the best of the ball Inside 50 and around the ground and broke down St Kilda late in the piece.. but it wasn’t smooth sailing early allowing St Kilda to run all over them early. The end game stats tell us the story of how the Eagles won with 15 Marks Inside 50m dominating the Contested Marks 17-5 around the grounds while coming out even on Clearances. They had a similar Inside 50 count while had 6 less shots on goal. It also helped having 23-8 free kicks.
The Eagles got away with one on the weekend and i’d be expecting them to start out a lot stronger against this Tigers outfit. While I like the idea of the Over 193.5 points bet in this game, there is a query over the Eagles kicking a large score at the MCG especially with the potential for 25-40km winds on the day which is why i’m happy to side with the Margin instead of Line bet.
Predicted Result
Eagles by 22 points
Betting – Confidence 85%
West Coast 1-39 margin @ $2.25
Geelong ($1.42) VS Melbourne ($3.15)
Saturday 4.35pm – Etihad Stadium
Line: Geelong -17.5, Melbourne +17.5
Geelong Cats
The Cats started $1.16 against the Kangaroos and were probably the most incorrect odds of the round coming off what on paper was only an average win over the Dockers. As expected, the Cats were shaky early and only put on 6 tackles in the first QTR, with 2 of those coming in the final 30 seconds of the QTR.
The Cats effort late in the game was admirable to be fair though coming back from 25 down at QTR time and 3 QTR time to win by 1 point. Even after the poor start and losing the Hitouts by 33 (they will lose them all year), the Cats still had more scoring shots and 57 Inside 50s. The Cats won the Clearances and had 14 Marks inside 50. The 50 tackles for the match is a big worry and i’d expect the team to improve on that effort.
Melbourne Demons
The Demons have started the season 2-0 but it’s not all sunshine and rainbows with two of their guns in Lewis and Hogan getting suspended for dirty hits on Blues players last week.
They also come into this game off a win over the Blues where they were behind at 3 QTR time. The Demons allowed the Blues 2 more Inside 50s on the day but had 2 more scoring shots themselves… won the Hitouts only just and had several more frees on the day. There was no doubt about their will to win the ball with 62 tackles on the day and they won the clearances by 3. They hit all the relevant KPIs, but the teams depth will be well and truly tested this week against the Cats.
Predicted Result
Geelong by 25 points
Betting – Confidence 90%
Geelong 1-39 margin @ $2.25
Fremantle ($5.20) VS Western Bulldogs ($1.20)
Saturday 5.40pm – Domain Stadium
Line: Fremantle +31.5, Western Bulldogs -31.5
Fremantle Dockers
The Dockers have looked a shadow of their former self after losing to the Cats by 42 and then the Power by 89 last week. I personally though they didn’t play too poorly the first week, but last week they were horrible. They won the Hitouts but that is about it… they had 43 to 68 inside 50s with just 16 scoring shots to 35. They put on just 47 tackles to 62.
The Freo need to seriously turn around their form to measure up here but the real issue is that their best players aren’t even underperforming.
Western Bulldogs
The Doggies are 2-0 but they haven’t shown me enough at this stage of the season to be impressed at all. They got over the Pies in R1 thanks to some poor kicking from the pies (the result should have been very close) and then they got lucky against the Swans when Tippet went down early in the match…. not to mention 31 to 17 free kicks.
The Dogs certainly have some positives to talk about. They get enough ball inside 50 and they put on enough tackles to break down any team. They are very lucky that they get a ‘free pass’ game here today against the Dockers to keep building on their form.
Predicted Result
Western Bulldogs by 50
Betting – Confidence 70%
Western Bulldogs 40+ @ $2.40
Port Adelaide ($2.75) VS Adelaide ($1.50)
Saturday 7.10pm – Adelaide Oval
Line: Port Adelaide +12.5, Adelaide -12.5
Port Adelaide Power
The Power come into this match after an impressive win over the Swans and then an even more impressive win over the Dockers. It was a strong four quarter effort and they didn’t stop even when they knew they had it home and hosed which is what I like to see. It was the same the previous week against the Swans. The Power are hitting all the right buttons with strong tackle numbers, shots on goal and inside 50 counts as well as measuring up clearance wise and marks inside 50. The only area they are struggling is in the Hitouts.
This will be the real testing material of just how strong the Power team really are.
Adelaide Crows
After a surprise demolishing of the Giants in round one, the Crows were well and truly tested last week against the Hawks at the MCG. The jury is still out on this team for me, even though they were my best bet at the line last week and duly saluted.
The Hawks got a big jump on the Crows early last week and it took them to the end of the third QTR to win back the lead. Stats wise, they made the most of their efforts with 33 shots on goal from 55 Inside 50s and i’m just not sure that will be the case against the Power. Adelaide continue to excel in the Hitouts with Jacobs looking to dominate again. The area where the Crows will look to dominate the Power is around the ground with contested marks being their strong point.
This shapes as a shootout and I’m expecting over 100 points from both teams.
Predicted Result
Port Adelaide by 2 points
Betting – Confidence 80%
Total Points Over 197.5 @ $1.90
St Kilda ($1.20) VS Brisbane ($5.25)
Sunday 1.10pm – Etihad Stadium
Line: St Kilda -32.5, Brisbane +32.5
St Kilda Saints
The Saints were horrible in Round 1 against the Demons and they set out to prove they are the real deal against the Eagles on the weekend. They started strongly with 13 shots on goal in the first quarter alone, but poor kicking with 6 goals 7 and straight kicking from the opposition 4 goals 0 in the first quarter meant they didn’t break away with the match. The game ended with very even Inside 50 figures while the Saints had 6 more shots on goal, yet lost convincingly.
The Saints weren’t helped by a 23 to 8 free kick count to the Eagles, but surprisingly, they won the Hitouts and clearances on the day. This saints team is still waiting for Riewoldt to return to be able to test the very best teams.. but either way.. they should be too strong for this Brisbane line-up.
Brisbane Lions
The Lions were terrible in Round 1 yet still got a win over the deplorable Suns. They picked up their game last week and actually took it to the Bombers in a match where they dominated the Hitouts and matched the Dons all over the ground in the main KPIs including shots on goal. The end score doesn’t exactly explain the final quarter for mine and the match was closer than it appears on paper.
The obvious query is how will the Lions travel as in the past they have proven to be a team that produces their best at home and rarely brings it away. It will be interesting to see what team pops up for this match.
Predicted Result
St Kilda by 20 points
Betting – Confidence 75%
St Kilda 1-39 Margin @ $2.40
Carlton ($5.10) VS Essendon ($1.24)
Sunday 3.20pm – MCG
Line: Carlton +30.5, Essendon -30.5
Carlton Blues
The Blues put up a very strong fight on the weekend against the Demons in a match they just weren’t expected to be competitive in. The fate of Patrick Cripps with a fractured jaw will be very important for this match-up against the Dons as they need a full-strength team to stand a chance.
The Blues were competitive in the Hitouts against a Max Gawn led Melbourne Team and had 19 shots on goal to 21 from the Demons with 56 inside 50s to 54. The Blues were fairly disappointing in terms of pressure with just 45 tackles on the day and this is something i’d expect them to work on going into this match.
The Blues matched the Demons in the clearances but only manged 10 Marks inside 50 which is something that will also have to improve for this match.
Essendon Bombers
The Bombers come into this off two wins. They didn’t exactly have an easy time of it against the Lions up there but they got the job done for us in the end. The Tackles were even overall and the Lions owned the Hitouts throughout the match. Both teams had similar strong Inside 50 numbers while the Dons had more shots on goal. Interestingly, Essendon actually lost the clearances overall but found it easier inside 50 with 14 Marks inside 50 to Brisbanes 11.
The Dons come into this match with wins over a vulnerable Hawthorn team and a Brisbane team that is destined to finish near the bottom of the ladder. They gave up a 29 point lead at half-time to lead by just 5 at 3 QTR time before straight kicking got them home by a score that over inflates the win on the day.
Predicted Result
Essendon by 9 points
Betting – Confidence 80%
Carlton +30.5 line @ $1.92
Gold Coast ($3.35) VS Hawthorn ($1.36)
Sunday 4.40pm – Metricon Stadium
Line: Gold Coast +20.5, Hawthorn -20.5
Gold Coast Suns
The Suns couldn’t have been any more disappointing if they tried on the weekend and they have some serious soul searching to make during the week.
They played like a team with potential against the Lions when they fought back into the game and had all the KPIs of a team that could advance forward, but they simply didn’t turn up against the Giants and allowed the Giants to own them in every quarter.
The Suns won the free kick out by 7 which is a bit laughable.. but they had 42 to 65 inside 50s, 18 to 40 scoring shots, 30 to 43 clearances and just 8 to 17 Marks Inside 50.
Don’t be shocked to see them come out with more intensity on the weekend, but will they really have the belief? They need a strong start to be in this.
Hawthorn Hawks
The Hawks come into this game with their worst start in a very long time having lost their first two matches of the season by 25 and 24 points. The defeat on the weekend to the Crows was a much better effort than what was produced R1 against the Bombers.
The KPIs from the game against the Crows were all sufficient. The Hawks had 51 to 55 Inside 50s. 40 to 45 Hitouts. 77 to 83 Tackles, 81 to 90 marks, 37 to 39 clearances.. but disappointingly 10 to 17 Marks Inside 50 and 24 to 33 scoring shots.
The Hawks have a long way to go to be considered premiership contenders this year, but that was more than a good start on Saturday.
Predicted Result
Hawthorn by 28 points
Betting – Confidence 75%
Hawthorn -20.5 line @ $1.92
