This week we have 7 games to look at with Fremantle, Geelong and Hawthorn getting the Bye.
Last week we selected:
Saints by 27 (Won by 13)
Port by 45 (Lost by 3)
Carlton by 29 (Won by 6)
Richmond by 4 (Won by 9)
Collingwood by 45 (Won by 30)
Western Bulldogs by 19 (Lost by 7)
Geelong by 15 (Won by 19)
We had a wager on each of the above games except Gold Coast vs Port Adelaide, as we were not sure where Port were at. We had put Port up with a 45 point win, with the line set by the bookies at 63.5, we knew Gold Coast had a shot, but didn’t expect they would win!
We got close to the mark in all of the games above which was reflected in all of our bets. We are now 36/36 for the season/pre-season betting taking average odds of $1.25 on games.
Tips for AFL Week 6
Thursday 28 April 2011 6.40pm – West Coast Eagles vs Melbourne Demons
West Coast have won the last 5 games played in Perth by 8, 77, 22, 40 and 52.
The last meeting resulted in a 29 point win to West Coast (Round 8 last year).
Melbourne are ‘sitting pretty’ in 7th with 2 wins, 1 lose and a draw while West Coast have two wins and two loses. Both teams are coming off a bye. Melbourne had a convincing win over Gold Coast by 90 points while West Coast lost to Hawthorn in a close fight by 8 points. Interestingly, Melbourne got dominated by Hawks in round 2 by 45 points.
Both these teams on paper seem very even. West Coast have the Nod with the bookies starting at $1.65. Melbourne would have to pull out a huge effort to get over the Eagles in the West and we can’t see it happening.
West Coast by 16
West Coast Eagles Final Team
Ashely Smith, Darren Glass, Shannon Hurn, Sam Butler, Eric mackenzie, Scott Selwood, Andrew Embley, Matthew Priddis, Matthew Rosa, Luke Shuey, Josh Kennedy, mark Nicoski, Mark Lecras, Quinten Lynch, Jack Darling, Dean Cox, Daniel Kerr, Adam Selwood, Bradley Ebert, Nic Naitanui, Patrick McGinnity, Andrew Gaff
Emergencies
Will Schofield
Thomas Swift
Gerrick Weedon
Outs from previous side
Mitch Brown, Will Schofield
Injury List
Mitch Brown (thumb) – 8-10 weeks
Brett Jones (arm) – 3-4 weeks
Chris Masten (knee) – 1 week
Ryan Neates (abdomen) – 3 weeks
Beau Waters (elbow) – 10 weeks
Melbourne Demons Final Team
Jack Watts, Jiam Jurrah, Austin Wonaeamirri, Aaron Davey, Colin Sylvia, Jordan Gysberts, Rohan Bail, Nathan Jones, Brad green, Luke Tapscott, Colin Garland, Jack Grimes, Client Bartram, Jared Rivers, James Frawley, Mark Jamar, Brent Moloney, Jack Trengrove, Lynden Dunn, Cale Morton, Stefan Martin, Jamie Bennell
Emergencies
Matthew Warnock
Ricky Petterd
Addam Maric
Outs from previous side
None
Injury List
Robert Campbell (Achilles) – 4 weeks
Jordie McKenzie (groin) – 3 weeks
Tom Scully (knee) – 5 weeks
Friday 29 April 2011 7.40pm – Sydney Swans vs Carlton Blues
Sydney has won the last 4 games played in Sydney by 17, 62, 92 and 74.
The last meeting was a 39 point win for Sydney (Round 16 last year).
Both teams have impressed of late with Sydney sitting on 2 wins 1 lose 1 draw and Carlton on 3 wins 1 lose 1 draw.
Carlton were less than impressive in front of goal last week. They dominated Adelaide yet nearly lost because of poor kicking. This has happened in previous games. Sydney come off a bye round and were pretty good against the Cats in the wet.
This one will be very close. The Bookies have Sydney at $1.75 and we agree they should be slight favourites.
Sydney by 8
Sydney Swans Final Team
Paul Bevan, Ted Richards, Rhyce Shaw, Tadhg Kennelly, Heath Grundy, Nicholas Smith, Craig Bird, Kieren Jack, Martin Mattner, Jude Bolton, Adam Goodes, Daniel Hannebery, Ben McGlynn, Sam Reid, Ryan O’Keefe, Shane Mumford, Josh Kennedy, Jarrad McVeigh, Jarred Moore, Jesse White, Lewis Jetta, Andresjs Everitt.
Emergencies
Lewis Johnston
Mike Pyke
Luke Parker
Outs from previous side
Gary Rohan, Alex Johnson
Injury List
Daniel Bradshaw (knee) – indefinite
Campbell Heath (knee) – 1-2 weeks
Alex Johnson (hamstring) – 1 week
Nick Malceski (knee) – 3-4 weeks
Carlton Blues Final Team
Jeffrey Garlett, Shaun Hampson, Andrew Carrazzo, Andrew Walker, Jarrad Waite, Mitch Robinson, Kade Simpson, Chris Judd, Heath Scotland, Jordan Russell, Jeremy Laidler, Nick Duigan, Simon White, Michael Jamison, Christopher Yarran, Robert Warnock, Bryce Gibbs, Marc Murphy, Eddie Betts, David Ellard, Aaron Joseph, Edward Curnow
Emergencies
Setanta O’hAilpin
Dennis Armfield
Zach Tuohy
Outs from previous side
None
Injury List
Mark Austin (arm) – 6 weeks
Paul Bower (thigh) -1-2 weeks
Levi Casboult (knee) – 6-8 weeks
Andrew Collins (shoulder) – TBC
Ryan Houlihan (calf) – 2-3 weeks
Matthew Kreuzer (knee) – 2-3 weeks
Luke Mitchell (shoulder) – indefinite
Chris Yarran (hamstring) – test
Saturday 30 April 2011 2.10pm – North Melbourne Kangaroos vs Port Adelaide Power
North Melbourne have won 3 of the last 4 meetings by 36, 4 and 5 while Port won the very last meeting by 14 (up in Adelaide, round 1, 2010).
North are sitting on the bottom of the ladder with 4 loses while Port are sitting in 14th on 1 win and 4 loses, including an embarrassing loss to Gold Coast. There are injury concerns over Brent Harvey who went down in the final Qtr of Norths match, which in our opinion, lost the game for North.
Port will bounce back from this loss against Gold Coast and answer their critics in kind. The bookies have North at $1.40… which is stupid for a team on the very bottom. This game will be close, there is no doubt and the price should reflect that.
Port Adelaide by 3
North Melbourne Kangaroos Final Team
Brady Rawlings, Nathan Grima, Scott Thompson, Daniel Pratt, Michael Firrito, Daniel Wells, Shaun Atley, Brent Harvey, Samuel Wright, Scott Mcmahon, Lachlan Hensen, Lindsay Thomas, Leigh Adams, Drew Petrie, Jack Ziebell, Todd Goldstein, Andrew Swallow, Liam Anthony, Benjamin Speight, Ben Cunnington, Jamie Macmillan, Kieran Harper
Emergencies
Aaron Edwards
Cruize Garlett
Cameron Pedersen
Outs from previous side
Robert Tarrant, Cruize Garlett, Cameron Richardson
Injury List
Ryan Bastinac (knee) – indefinite
Ayden Kennedy (knee) – season
Ed Lower (knee) – indefinite
Hamish McIntosh (Achilles) – indefinite
Marcus White (shoulder) – indefinite
Port Adelaide Power Final Team
Daniel Motlop, Justin Westhoff, Brett Ebert, Robert Gray, Chad Cornes, Matthew Broadbent, Cameron O’Shea, Matt Thomas, Travis Boak, Jasper Pittard, Troy Chaplin, Michael Pettigrew, Jackson Trengove, Alipate Carlile, Tom Logan, Dean Brogan, Hamish Hartlett, David Rodan, Kane Cornes, Paul Steward, Daniel Stewart, Cameron Hitchcock
Emergencies
Jacob Surjan
Mitchell Banner
Jason Davenport
Outs from previous side
Steven Salopek, Jacob Surjan, Jason Davenport
Injury List
Dean Brogan (leg) – test
Dom Cassisi (tibial fracture) – 4 weeks
Matthew Lobbe (dislocated shoulder) – 1 week
Ben Newton (ankle) – test
Nick Salter (foot) – 4 weeks
Jay Schulz (knee) – 1-2 weeks
Paul Stewart (hip) – test
Saturday 30 April 2011 7.10pm – Richmond Tigers vs Brisbane Lions
Richmond has won two of the last four meetings by 19 and 3. Brisbane won the meeting by 26 and there was a Draw to finish off the record.
Brisbane are coming off a close lose to St Kilda while Richmond are coming off their first win of the season against North Melbourne. Both teams have been struggling and Brisbane have lost their captain and best player up forward for the season in Mr Brown! Jackson is a BIG out for Richmond.. he is at the tribunal but we believe he will get at least 1 week.
We have been impressed with Brisbane over the past few games, all things considered.
The bookies have this game at Richmond $1.36. We actually think Brisbane will come down to Melbourne with something to prove. They have been more consistent than Richmond since the beginning of the season (Richmond have only been playing out 1-2 Qtrs).
Brisbane by 10
Richmond Tigers Final Team
Chris Newman, Alex Rance, Jake Batchelor, Brett Deledio, Luke McGuane, Dylan Grimes, Trent Cotchin, Dustin Martin, Shane Edwards, Jake King, Tyrone Vickery, Shaun Grigg, Matthew White, Jack Riewoldt, Brad Miller, Angus Graham, Shane Tuck, Nathan Foley, Robin Nahas, Ben Nason, Reece Conca, Bachar Houli
Emergencies
Jayden Post
Jeromey Webberley
Bradley Helbig
Outs from previous side
Daniel Jackson
Injury List
Ben Griffiths (shoulder) – test
Ben Jakobi (foot) – 1-2 weeks
Kelvin Moore (hip) – TBA
Jamie O’Reilly (foot) – 1-2 weeks
Brisbane Lions Final Team
Todd Banfield, Matthew Leuenberger, James Polkinghorne, Jesse O’Brien, Mitchell Clark, Luke Power, Jack Redden, Simon Black, Tom Rockliff, Ashley McGrath, Joel Patfull, Pearce Hanley, Jed Adcock, Broc McCauley, Andrew Raines, Daniel Rich, Cheynee Stiller, Matt Maguire, Clayne Beams, Jared Polec
Emergencies
Matt Austin
Amon Buchanan
Bryce Retzlaff
Outs from previous side
Aaron Cornelius
Clayne Beams
Injury List
Callum Bartlett (knee) – indefinite
Jonathan Brown (face) – 4 weeks
Jamie Charman (Achilles) – indefinite
Ryan Lester (foot) – season
Bart McCulloch (quad) – 1 week
Brent Staker (knee) – 9 weeks
Saturday 30 April 2011 7.10pm – Adelaide Crows vs St Kilda Saints
St Kilda have won 5 of the last 6 meetings (Adelaide won the last one, in Adelaide, against a under-manned St Kilda Squad by 28). Both teams have a few injury worries. Adelaide has one of the largest injury lists in the competition, with several of those players ranked in their top 12 players. St Kilda have not shown any heart in recent weeks and one must question if the coach can turn this attitude around.
We feel that the Saints boys will receive a whipping at training this week and come out hungry. Saints are a much better team, Adelaide have far too many injuries.
The bookies have Adelaide at $1.72 and Saints at $2.05
Saints by 37
Adelaide Crows Final Team
Graham Johncock, Ben Rutten, Phil Davis, Richard Tambling, Luke Thompson, Michael Doughty, Brodie Smith, Richard Douglar, Brad Symes, Chris Knights, Taylor Walker, Nathan van Berlo, Ricky Henderson, Kurt Tippett, Matthew Jaensch
Emergencies
Ivan Maric
Christopher Schmidt
Jack Gunston
Outs from previous side
Bernie Vince
Andy Otten
Injury List
Ian Callinan (bicep) – indefinite
James Craig (hamstring) – 4-5 weeks
Phil Davis (shoulder) – test
David Mackay (shoulder) – indefinite
Brad Moran (hamstring) – 1-2 weeks
Jared Petrenko (foot) – test
Jason Porplyzia (shoulder) – indefinite
Sam Shaw (hamstring) – 1 week
Rory Sloane (thumb/jaw) – 1-2 weeks
Scott Stevens (ill) – 1-2 weeks
Brad Symes (broken nose) – TBC
Daniel Talia (Achilles) – 2-3 weeks
St Kilda Saints Final Team
Jack Steven, Nick Riewoldt, Stephen Milne, Adam Schneider, Jason Blake, Leigh Montagna, Sam Gilbert, David Armitage, Brendon Goddard, James Gwilt, Sam Fisher, Jason Gram, Steven Baker, Zac Dawson, Sean Dempster, Ben McEvoy, Nick Dal Santo, Clinton Jones, Andrew McQualter, Farren Ray, Alistair Smith, Will Johnson
Emergencies
Nicholas Winmar
Jamie Cripps
Arryn Siposs
Outs from previous side
Justin Koschitzke, Rhys Stanley
Injury List
Paul Cahill (quad) – TBA
Michael Gardiner (knee) -TBA
Jarryn Geary (fibula) – 3-4 weeks
Lenny Hayes (knee) – season
Tom Ledger (hamstring) – 2 weeks
Sunday 1 May 2011 1.10pm – Essendon Bombers vs Gold Coast Suns
Essendon are in fine form. Gold Coast did get their first win last week but there is a game of two teams in different leagues. Essendon will make the most of their run through the midfield and should be far too strong, fast and tall for the Suns. This one is a question of by how much and we do believe Essendon will increase their percentage points significantly.
Essendon by 78
Essendon Bombers Final Team
Henry Slattery, Dustin Fletcher, Cale Hooker, Kyle Reimers, Kyle Hardingham, Mark McVeigh, Michael Hibberd, Jobe Watson, Angus Monfries, David Hille, Patrick Ryder, Ben Howlett, Stewart Crameri, Michael Hurley, Leroy Jetta, Tom Bellchambers, Heath Hocking, Brent Stanton, Sam Lonergan, Nathan Lovett-Murray, Andrew Welsh, Alwyn Davey, David Zaharakis, Jake Melksham, Dyson Heppell
Emergencies
Named in Full Team. For up-to-date information visit http://www.afl.com.au/teams/tabid/16469/default.aspx
Outs from previous side
No Change as of yet
Injury List
Courtenay Dempsey (knee) – indefinite
Scott Gumbleton (hamstring) – 2 weeks
Anthony Long (hamstring) – indefinite
David Myers (scaphoid) – 4 weeks
Tayte Pears (foot) – ongoing assessment
Jason Winderlich (knee) – indefinite
Gold Coast Suns Final Team
Brandon matera, Josh Fraser, Luke Russell, David Swallow, Charlie Dixon, Harley Bennell, Trent McKenzie, Jared Brennan, Sam Iles, Josh Toy, Steven May, Jarrod Harbrow, Karmichael Hunt, Jack Hutchins, Seb Tape, Zac Smith, Michael Rischitelli, Gary Ablett, Maverick Weller, Hayden Jolly, Daniel Harris, Daniel Stanley, Matt Shaw, Liam Patrick, Daniel Gorringe
Emergencies
Named in Full Team. For up-to-date information visit http://www.afl.com.au/teams/tabid/16469/default.aspx
Outs from previous side
Nathan Bock
Injury List
Josh Caddy (foot) 6-8 weeks
Michael Coad (hamstring) – 12-14 weeks
Jeremy Taylor (groin) – 4 weeks
Joel Wilkinson (knee) – available
Sunday 1 May 2011 4.40pm – Collingwood Magpies vs Western Bulldogs
Collingwood have won the last two meetings between these teams by 36 and 10.
The doggies travelled over to Fremantle on Monday and lost in a close one. The skills from both teams were beyond terrible. Collingwood played out a close ANZAC day game which they won by 30 points in the end. The Bulldogs will be coming into this game with 6 day turn around when you consider they have to travel back (played a night match).
Collingwood are the bench mark and have been ahead of every team they have played this year. Going off both teams performances on the weekend, you cannot look past the Magpies in this game. They should take care of the Bulldogs easily.
Collingwood by 35
Collingwood Magpies Final Team
Chris Tarrant, Nick Maxwell, Harry O’Brien, Ben Johnson, Ben Reid, Heath Shaw, Dale Thomas, Dane Swan, Luke Ball, Alan Didak, Travis Cloke, Leigh Brown, Leon Davis, Chris Dawes, Steele Sidebottom, Cameron Wood, Scott Pendlebury, Jarryd Blair, Alan Toovey, Brad Dick, Sharrod Wellingham, John McCarthy, Dayne Beams, Simon Buckley, Andrew Krakouer
Emergencies
Named in Full Team. For up-to-date information visit http://www.afl.com.au/teams/tabid/16469/default.aspx
Outs from previous side
Darren Jolly
Injury List
Nathan Brown (knee) – season
Tom Hunter (neck) – retired
Ben Sinclair (leg) – 1-2 weeks
Josh Thomas (foot) – 1 week
Western Bulldogs Final Team
Justin Sherman, Liam Jones, Josh Hill, Dylan Addison, Jarrad Grant, Callan Ward, Liam Picken, Matthew boyd, Daniel Cross, Robert Murphy, Tom Williams, Dale Morris, Lindsay Gilbee, Brian Lake, Lukas Markovic, William Minson, Ryan Griffen, Adam Cooney, Brennan Stack, Jordan Roughead, Brodie Moles, Nathan Djerrkura, Mitchell Wallis, Thomas Liberatore, Jayden Schofield
Emergencies
Named in Full Team. For up-to-date information visit http://www.afl.com.au/teams/tabid/16469/default.aspx
Outs from previous side
Shaun Higgins, Barry Hall, Ben Hudson
Injury List
Daniel Giansiracusa (hamstring) – test
Barry Hall (ankle) – 1 week
Ryan Hargrave (ankle) – 2 weeks
Easton Wood (ankle) – 5-6 weeks
Patrick Veszpremi (hand) – 3 weeks
Out Betting Options
The following prices are sourced from Centrebet. Prices may change.
BET OF THE WEEK
Collingwood -4.5 at $1.25
Bets for each game
(3)West Coast +24.5 at $1.20
(6)Carlton +39.5 at $1.19
(4)Port Adelaide +44.5 at $1.25
(2)Brisbane +44.5 at $1.26
(5)St Kilda +33.5 at $1.26
(7)Essendon -38.5 at $1.26
(1)Collingwood -4.5 at $1.25
*Please note we don’t have a punt on EVERY game listed. Currently, we have ranked our most confident bet as number 1 and worst as 7*
