After a short holiday and a bout of the man flu we are finally back to another MLB preview. The trade deadline has come and gone and some huge moves happened, even though we still may see some August roster moves. A’s and Tigers squared off with who could sign the biggest player and both teams look poised for a run deep into October. Some future predictions to be had at the bottom of this page in regards to that. On to the games where the race for division titles and wild card spots is really heating up. Week by week teams are dropping out of the race, hopefully your lot is still in with a chance. Personally this is when my team tend to frustrate the most.
Sunday 3rd
Best Bet – Over 7.5 Royals/A’s at $2.07
Next Best – Tigers -1.5 at $1.90
Multi – Pirates/Braves at $3.29
Colorado Rockies vs Detroit Tigers (9am AEST)
Rockies ($2.86) – Matzek
Tigers ($1.45) – Porcello
Over/Under – Over 8.5 ($1.78) Under 8.5 ($2.09)
Prediction
Tigers. It’s a sign of a very strong starting pitching rotation when probably your 5th man on that rotation is 12-5 on the season. That’s the spot Porcello finds himself in. May not even get a start in October unless he over takes the struggling Verlander in the rotation which to be honest on form he would deserve to. Porcello was belted his last start at home but in 3 consecutive road starts since has put up solid numbers pitching 7 innings in each however with no run support only turned one of them into a win. Hard to have a Rockies team that is just treading water as a franchise. Uninspiring pitching and inconsistent batting. Matzek 2-5 on the year since debuting in June with an ERA of 4.39. Can’t make a case for the Rockies. Taking Tigers -1.5 here.
Suggested Bet
Tigers -1.5 at $1.90
Kansas City Royals vs Oakland A’s (6am AEST)
Royals ($2.84) – Vargas
A’s ($1.45) – Lester
Over/Under – Over 7.5 ($2.07) Under 8.5 ($1.79)
Prediction
A’s. Had to pick Lester’s first Oakland start as a previewed match up. 10-7 with an ERA of 2.52 with the Red Sox, it’s the All Stars A’s debut but I don’t see it being as straight forward as the price suggests. I won’t be touching the $1.45 on the A’s here. Royals pitcher Vargas coming off the DL has been pretty solid all season 8-4 with an ERA of 3.31. Going to predict runs here and the over 7.5 seems tremendous value. A’s can score runs, especially at home and since the break the Royals have improved in the run scoring department. With a pitcher coming off the DL and one starting in new surroundings for the first time, bound to be a few runs and if we can grab a few early on the over 7.5 is going to be value.
Suggested Bet
Over 7.5 at $2.07
Atlanta Braves vs San Diego Padres (10.30am AEST)
Braves ($1.80) – Santana
Padres ($2.05) – Kennedy
Over/Under – Over 6.0 ($1.92) Under 6.0 ($1.92)
Prediction
Braves. Santana is in fine form picking up 5 wins in his last 6 starts, last outing against the Padres struck out 11 in 8 scorless innings. Currently 10-6 on the season with an ERA of 3.63 he has seemingly got out of the mid season slump and is going to be needed as the Braves try and chase down the Nats in the NL East. Kennedy is a player that’s record is not as good as it should be. Hamstrung by a poor Padres offense he is 8-9 on the season with an ERA of 3.66. Only going to probably take a few runs for the Braves to grab this as long as Santana does not implode so I’m liking the price on the Braves to win this.
Suggested Bet
Braves at $1.80
Other Suggested Bets
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Arizona Diamondbacks (10am AEST)
Pirates currently needing to break out of a mini slump and keep in the race for the NL Central or Wild Card spot. In form pitcher in Worley 4-1 and ERA of 2.54. Pretty friendly hitting park and fancy the sometimes hot sometimes not Pirates offense to get the job done at a nice price of $1.83.
Future Markets
With the big trades just passed in the markets for the AL and World Series have seen a slight change.
A’s currently favourites for the AL at $3.0 and the World Series at $5.0. For me I would not touch either of them at this point. They are currently only 2 games ahead of the Angels in the AL West, and with plenty of games between the 2 left having them with a possible Wild Card game about is a risk. Smart play is on the Tigers for the World Series at $6. They are winning the AL Central and likely will come up against the AL East winner in the playoffs. In the NL, the strongest team by far is the Dodgers and I’m happy to take them at $7.50 to win the World Series.
Suggested Bet
Taking both the Tiger and Dodgers to win the WS at this point ($6.00 and $7.50) while the price is right, with the ability to trade out later on in the playoffs.
All Prices Quoted via Sportsbet at time of writing.
Will be back midweek for some more games, until then hope you all have a good week with your MLB betting. Hopefully your thoughts on the games match up with mine. As always these are only a select few games I was interested in, feel free to share your opinions on any games at @MLB_TheProfits on Twitter. Happy Punting.
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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