Welcome to The Profits form guide for Moonee Valley on 5 September 2015 for Dato’ Tan Chin Nam Stakes Day. Spring is upon us and we have entered it off the back of a very successful day Memsie Stakes Day at Caulfield, most importantly, our best bet won paying very comfortable odds taking our 90% confidence bets to the next level this year… it’s been going well and we hope it continues. There has once again been a large amount of work put into the tips today, but the confidence factors are well down on last week. Every so often you get these days, even at Moonee Valley and we honestly just don’t know where the best piece of ground will be… i get the feeling horses will have every chance 3-4m off the rail from the 500m and the rail could end up a no-go zone by the end of the day. Just a theory based on meeting two runs back. As always, i hope your form matches up with mine. Good luck and happy punting.
Melbourne Best Bet
Moonee Valley Race 8 – Two horse play – Chautauqua 2.5 units to win. Flamberge 1 unit to win.
Four main chances in this race, but the two clear top chances for mine at Chautauqua and Flamberge. Coming these two horses together at the above suggested betting ratios gets you a best price of around $1.90 for either horse to win, and there is far over the % my ratings have put up.
Melbourne Next Best Bet
Moonee Valley Race 4 – Abbasso Each-Way
I couldn’t believe the price they put up for Abbasso in comparison to United States and i still can’t when you consider the barrier draws and weight diferences today. We are getting a very good price for the horse that will be in the right spot in the run and giving us every hope.
Melbourne Best Value
Moonee Valley Race 3 – Leveraction E/W
Perfect run last start but i feel Leveraction can go one better today with the horse that beat us last start sitting further back in the run and the surrounding horses today being lesser hopes that won’t handle the strong tempo. Price is right.
Melbourne Quaddie
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 2, 7, 9, 10
Quaddie Leg Two: 4, 5, 7, 11
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 2, 4, 12, 14
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 3, 5, 6, 7, 10
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Moonee Valley Race 1 – 1500m – Quest Moonee Valley Handicap
Gear Changes: Lightning Ball – Tongue Tie First Time, Polish Tiger – Winkers First Time
1. Del Piero: First prep in 2YO grade suggested he was a handy type. Won his maiden first up on a wet track and then failed to impress in much easier class at Sandown last start. Better barrier and Newitt onboard, could sit midfield if ridden positively and be a sneaky chance.
2. Kentucky Flyer: Not fancied in 2YO-LR class only run last prep but won very well on a softer surface first up at Cranbourne in a maiden. Obviously harder this.
3. Sohool: Good maiden win first up at Pakenham and then ran ‘okay’ without impressing in BM-64 grade after that. Obviously wants the distance but is he a top grader? Doesn’t have to be to win this!
4. Lightning Bell: Went around long odds in two 2YO maidens and then back to open class maiden very well backed and got the win last start. Obviously has talent but others preferred.
5. Scadden’s Run: Had to go back to a R-58 to get his first win. No thanks.
6. Valtimor: Non-winner but ran a close 2nd last start at Bendigo in what was a decent maiden performance. Has the ability to measure up.
7. Palaios: One start as 2nd favourite in a maiden and failed to place. Struggle to see the improvement, but the distance increase does help.
8. Euston Road: FM-MDN winner last start at Geelong. Obviously harder task today.
9. Polish Tiger: Gone around short prices the last two starts in maidens and failed to place in either. No thanks.
Comments: Strange race to open the day with a 3YO over 1500m and it looks to be filled with the second raters all fighting for a massive 80k prizepool. On paper there doesn’t look to be much speed or class and i think Sohool looks well suited here off the two runs in and will position just off the speed from the perfect barrier to get a charmed run.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Sohool Each-Way.
Moonee Valley Race 2 – 1600m – Jeep Handicap
Gear Changes: None
1. Spirit of Heaven: Consistently runs well but this prep she has been a step off winning. Best runs on softer tracks than we will be getting today at MV. D Oliver jumps off and barrier is tricky.
2. Letmedowngently: Very poor barrier today in a race with a lot of early speed. Will find it hard to get out the front from there. Ran very very well in much harder class last start over the 1500m and looks in for a very good prep. Weighted quite well all things considered but will need a gem of a ride.
3. Herstory: Just missed last start at Sandown and is up against it again today in this class. Certainly she is a good horse but in open grade she is certainly only just ‘fair’ with more progression required to win this from the wide gate.
4. Bet You She Rocks: Shown nothing all three runs this prep. Keep an eye on her but probably needs a few more runs to find best.
5. Bring a Ring: Landed the cash two runs back at big odds over at Rosehill. Ran well enough last start at Randwick but wasn’t suited by tempo at all.. got away with murder when she won previous run. Won’t get away with anything today.
6. Vincent’s Thirst: Won two in a row and 3 of last 4. Best runs have been on all surfaces to be honest so suited today no issues. Beat home Herstory last start and weighted 1kg better. Barrier suits.
7. Shadow of the Mist: Low weight and ridden back last start off a very strong tempo at Caulfield but found one too good. Weighted okay and should give a sight.
8. Zanteca: Never won first up or ran at track previously. Best runs last prep were over further but can run well at this distance.
9. Boogielicious: Consistent type having placed or won her last 8 races. Back to 1600m today an interesting move having run best over further recently. Back to a Good track today looks the key and from barrier 6 should get a nice spot during run if back to 1600m does the trick.
10. Magnus Slipper: Very disappointing run last start at Caulfield and just might not have enjoyed the very strong tempo as suggested on her records to date, she may simply just be a type that finds her best late off slow to medium tempos. Not expecting them to crawl today and barrier is horrible.
11. Princess Hussey: Had every chance last start to get past Vincent’s Thirst but didn’t. Better weighted today but i’m not convinced from barrier 14 that she is a key chance.
12. Spanish Love: Loves to run well without winning. Consistent type. Weighted okay but barrier and last start run suggest place at best.
13. Holy Cow: Looked a really good tyep two preps back but last two runs gone under as $1.60 and $2.60 favourite but thatwas on wet tracks. Barrier 4 and no excuse today you have yo believe back on a dryer surface. Last chance today for such a talented horse.
14. Oak Park Goblet: Maps very well today from inside barrier… 7 runs for 0 wins though on Good tracks a massive issue. Obviously has the ability to win but concern over track rating.
15. Mossbeat: Hit the line hard again last start but never got close to the win still 0.5L off it. Back in class and remains at 54kg and back to a firm track. Will have every chance ridden for luck.
Comments: Rough way to approach the second race of the day. Several key chances in this race and it’s very hard to select a top pick. Holy Cow will get every chance today back to a dryer track from a good barrier and gets the nod from Mossbeat.
Confidence 65%
Strategy: Holy Cow to win. Smaller bet Mossbeat.
Moonee Valley Race 3 – 1500m – Ranvet Handicap
Gear Changes: Strong Hand – Gelded, Sugar Rush – Winkers First & eEar Muffs Off First Time, Refectory – Blinkers Again, Wales – Blinkers Again.
1. Upbeat: Had every chance last start at course and distance in harder company from out the front on a day when bias suited being on speed. Top weight and hard to see the improvement required based on last start.
2. Luck’s a Fortune: Never won first up or at distance and last run was over more than double this distance.
3. Leveraction: Very strong chance today. Given a gem of a ride at course over 1600m last start by Payne who gets the ride again today. Couldn’t have been ridden any better last start, simply ran into one better in Strong Hand who he meets half a KG better today. Could a firmer surface be the difference?
4. Strong Hand: Very strong win last start beating home Leveraction. Giving 0.5kg and back to a firmer surface but seemed to handle that with no issues and from barrier 2 today will certainly have a gem of a run you would expect, but there is obviously a concern that he doesn’t sit in the same spot.
6. Master Reset: Went through the grades last prep but was found out in this grade at Cranbourne. Be shocked to see a win from wide barrier here.
7. Bikila: Last prep went through his grades and won at big odds at a massive price over this distance range 3rd up then ran 1.8L 4th in 3Y-Gp1 over 2400m to finish prep. Can’t exactly ignore.
8. Boom Time: Talented type who measured up to the top level over in WA last prep. First up run today over a distance which isn’t his best distance but certainly can run good races over. Win wouldn’t shock from a positive barrier.
9. So Does He: Two very poor runs in a row after showing a lot of talent with big wins at Bendigo and Horsham. Back to firmer track today could do the trick? Hard to back but hard to ignore.
10. Sugar Rush: Previous preps did win at Randwick and looked an okay type. First up run very poor on a heavy track… back to dryer and 1500m suited… but barrier 15 and that first up run make it hard to have her.
11. Airalign: First up found nothing out the back. Expect to sit further forward here and has a perfect second up record.
12. Bon Rocket: Certainly a talented type and that win three back at Flemington proved he has wins in him. This does look a step up again today but barrier 5 gives him more of a chance to sit more handy.
13. Razzle Dazzle Rock: Sent up to Sydney for a strange reason to battle the other way but couldn’t get a win. Back to Melbourne and obviously fresh and ready to win.. step up in class a little too difficult i’d suggest today from barrier against this field based on previous runs.
14. Refectory: Never won first up or at track or at distance. Needs further you would feel…
15. Grand Sai Wan: Three runs this prep on wetter tracks. Not sure he has shown enough to suggest measuring up today.
16. Wales: A long time between drinks. $3.50 last start and finished dead last… hard to rate chances for mine.
17. Youbolt: Doubt he gets a run today… not going well enough.
18. Collins Street: Looks a blowout chance if gets a run and Oliver most likely takes the run if sneaks into the field. Good barrier.
Comments: This race for mine is won and lost on position. Leveraction will be setting a blistering tempo similar to that The Cleaner will be setting later in the day. As long as the rail is playing to give front runners every chance, Leveraction will be hard to get past. The key today is Strong Hand shouldn’t find a spot outside of Leveraction today and will need to produce a little extra to get past.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Leveraction E/W
Moonee Valley Race 4 – 1600m – 1Print Craig Opie Cup
Gear Changes: Prince Cheri – Tongue Tie Off, Chance to Dance – Cross Over Noseband First Time & Tongue Tie First Time, Garud – Cheekers Off, Pacific Heights – Blinkers First Time.
1. Prince Cheri: Looked to be a very progressive type with Group 1 potential but never got to that level after a Group 3 win over 2000m, hasn’t won since or even placed. Obviously has talent but first up today has to find his very best. Maps on speed today which suits on a Good track.
2. Streets Away: Every chance to win all three runs this prep and hasn’t provided a run close enough to win. Fair time between runs but been a long time between drinks and not sure he has it in him today either.
3. Chance to Dance: Failed to finish off on the heavy track first up at Flemington which wasn’t expected considering his form on wet overseas. 8 runs on good surfaces in Ireland for 4 wins and 4 places is hard to ignore. Should be ready to fire today heading into a big spring campaign for the stable.
4. The United States: The favoured of the two Williams horses, The United States was well backed last start at course and similar distance when just stealing the win over Abbasso by 0.1L. Was a very good win and we know he has talent based on WFA-G3 win over in Ireland. 56kg looks kind.
5. Onpicalo: Has been backed to win today back on a firmer surface and back to 1600m, but will the rail be so good that he will have every chance? Barrier means he will have to do alot of work early to cross but is the clear leader in the race.
6. Mujadale: Needs further. Never won first up or at track.
7. Lord of Brazil: Old mate just not going well enough to even consider for a place.
8. Garud: Got a win over Magnapal last prep over 1700m at the bool. Has ability but finds it very hard to get a win. One win first up on record and that was a long time ago that first up win. Never missed a place at these distances interestingly… should run well but hard to see the win first up.
9. Electric Fusion: Two runs to date and never close. Could try and be ridden closer to speed up in distance from a positive barrier but even that may not be enough to get a place in this competitive race.
10. Abbasso: Unlucky 2nd last start when given a very good ride. 2.5kg better off today against The United States and will get a charmed run with the pace on.
11. Pacific Heights: Stable believes he is going very well right now. Back down in weights and has to be considered a minor chance.
12. Initiator: Shown nothing two runs to date. Hard to see the form turn around for another few runs and needs further.
13. Baron Archer: Every chance last start and found nothing even with a strong tempo. Do have to forgive that run i feel. First time at MV a massive negative.
Comments: Certainly an exciting race on paper with a few key chances and a few roughies you have to consider. Straight off the bat, i can’t understand the price being bet for The United States when you consider Abbasso is 2.5kg better off from a positive barrier compared to The United States barrier, yet they are giving double the odds for Abbasso. Prince Cheri has the ratings to win today but is certainly hard to trust here first up on previous two preps. The same can be said for Baron Archer after last starts fail. Chance to Dance looks big odds from a nice barrier and has to be considered also. I think the market has Onpicalo and Pacific Heights below the odds they really should be, yet both do have a chance in the race. When all is said and done, i’m super keen to be taking the price on Abbasso while having a small bet also on Chance to Dance.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Abbasso E/W. Smaller bet Chance to Dance to win.
Moonee Valley Race 5 – 1200m – Atlantic Jewel Stakes
Gear Changes: Haybah – Lugging Bit Off & Standard Bit On & Tongue Tie On, Sweet Redemption – Blinkers First Time, Young Amazon – Tongue Tie Off & Tongue Control Bit On.
1. Pasadena Girl: Very talented 2Y-Gp1 winner last prep (didn’t beat the world that day though) and ran a very respectable 4th the run before to Pride of Dubai. Poor barrier a big issue and back to Good track is NOT an issue considering the strong 0.2L win at Flemington in 2F-GP3 company. Will be a long way back and need the rail to be not working out to be winning this.
2. Jameka: Proved to be a very nice type last prep when winning a 2YO-G2. Ran 4th to Pasadena Girl the previous race when favourite. Will be pushing forward and stable is flying.
3. Sagaronne: 0.8L 2nd to Press Statement in 2Y-GP1 to finish last prep after two previous wins to that. Lost a plate in that run also and was vetted at barriers. Runs a very strong tempo which is good. Best obviously over the 1600m on that last run… williams first time onboard today going back from barrier 1.
4. Haybah: Very disappointing run first up on soft ground. May have simply needed the run… betting did tell the story. Doesn’t win out of turn and will be setting a strong tempo… stable keen on their other runner.
5. Grisbi’s Run: Took out a 2YO race early this prep but since has not been within 2.8L of a win on three occasions in harder company. Happy to take her on today.
6. Stay With Me: Very strong maiden win first up this prep and ran 1L 2nd to Pasadena Girl first up and then 2.3L 5th to English after that. Looks a very good type and the yard would have declared her a special if she drew a barrier. Expect to be ridden for midfield to slightly further back spot. Heading towards the Guineas.
7. Lazumba: Two runs for two seconds. Finished off last prep with the 2nd to Jameka in 2YO-G2 company at Flemington which has to be respected. Good barrier today… best shown over further an issue though and yet to win.
8. Don’t Doubt Marley: Very strong run 4th last start behind Petitis Filous getting within 2L from last in the run. Will be getting back from the barrier again but looks a good place chance.
9. Don’t Doubt Mamma: 2YO winner in Adelaide.. horrible barrier all but ruins chance for a horse that looks to need everything to go right to go well.
10. Sweet Redemption: Waterhouse record over here is fairly average right now and her horses are running poorly first up.. so i have little trust in this runner today. Looks a second striger as well…
11. Our Vidia: Very disappointing run first up. Has ability on that really good win at course over 1000m first up last prep.
12. Just One Moment: Hard to ignore all her quality runs. Best clearly seen on Good track when winning her maiden and was still a valid 2nd last start at MV. Maps nicely.
13. Badawiya: 7 length maiden win well back in class in open class as well. Has ability but not sure i can back just off that maiden win.
14. Hela Flyer: Good enough maiden win but certainly didn’t have to beat the best of them. Barrier is poor.
15. Inner City Girl: Looked a nice win in a top price maiden. Distance increase will suit and barrier 4… have to respect.
16. Young Amazon: Will be on speed. Never placed so hard to suggest.
Comments: The best way you can make money out of a race like this is to generally sit back and take note of the big runs and instantly back that runner in the Guineas markets. More often than not these races will put up a very good run, and that run for mine will be Stay With Me today… will be out the back and hitting the line hard. Just One Moment looks the value runner in the race on the E/W from the barrier, expect to get a charmed run and can go well here. Certainly not the best horse in the race, but should get lengths on those i consider the best coming to the turn.
Confidence 60%
Strategy: Just One Moment E/W
Moonee Valley Race 6 – 1200m – The Cup Club Stakes
Gear Changes: Scream Machine – Stallion Chain & Barrier Blanket & Cross Over Noseband Off, Galaxy Pegasus – Lugging Bit Off & Standard Bit On & Tongue Tie On
1. Fast ‘n’ Rocking: Horrible barrier. Ran quite well first up all things considered at Caulfield. Top weight doesn’t exactly help from the barrier, but goes very well at this track and has won 2nd up previously. Will need to peak 2nd up to be beating this lot on first up run.
3. Griante: Disappointing both runs this prep but i think she will be finding her best here today back to the scene of her best run last prep. Will be pushing forward from a wide barrier and will need a bit of luck to get a good run.
4. Scream Machine: Needs further. Never won at distance or run at track.
5. Moonovermanhattan: A long time between drinks and best runs have been over 1600-2000m out the front. Needs the run.
6. Solsay: Very disappointing all three runs this prep. Hard to consider today and hate the jockey on board.
7. Rose of Choice: Competed in the higher FM-Group races last prep up north and did okay with 4th and 5th behind horses like Hazard. Hasn’t won since 2013 over 1400m.
8. Chivalry: Hasn’t won since I said the horse ‘Wouldn’t win another race this prep’ after beating an average lot at Caulfield suited by the tempo! Have to improve to place here.
9. Fell Swoop: been smashed in betting after a strong 0.5L win last start at Randwick. Up to 1200m much harder here even from a good barrier.
10. Galaxy Pegasus: Very good recent trial from a good barrier and will be going forward. Coming off a wind op always a query but the stable have a big ability, did hint that there is better to come down the track… did win a 3Y-GP3 and run 2nd in another over this distance and won at this track also.
11. Pilly’s Wish: Nice run for 2nd last start at course and distance. Much harder today even at the weights and Oliver jumps off. Place price more appealing than win.
12. Tansy: Had every chance last start at course over 1000m but just wans’t good enough in this class. Down 2kg and up 200m doesn’t look suited.
13. Beach Front: Horrible her two runs to date. No chance on that form.
14. Just Magical: Surprised a few with a very strong 2nd at course in this class first up. Up to 1200m should suit on previous runs and looks well suited. Horror barrier the downside.
15. Fast Cash: Poor first up and found very little. 1200m better suited but even so hard to see the win on that first up run form.
16. Just For Starters: Respect the first up win but found nothing since. Hard to have.
17. Who You Know: Outclassed here.
Comments: Fell Swoop is massive unders on my ratings today. Yes, there isn’t exactly a load of top class runner sin this, i’ll agree and i’m even a bit surprised to see Rose of Choice and Chivalry in single figures, but Griante and Galaxy Pegasus are group horses while Fell Swoop is unproven and i wasn’t exactly impressed with the last start win so i’m happy to take the horse on here.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 2, 7, 9, 10
Strategy: Galaxy Pegasus to win. Smaller bet Griante to win.
Moonee Valley Race 7 – 1600m – Dato’ Tan Chin Nam Stakes
Gear Changes: Dibayani – Blindfold First Time & Stallion Chain First Time & Ear Muffs Again & Noseroll Off, Big Memory – Lugging Bit Off & Tongue Tie Off & Tongue Control Bit First Time.
1. Foreteller: Been a while between wins for this consistent type. Never won at MV previously and better over further but he should run well. Barrier means he will be far back.
2. Ethiopia: needs further.
3. Mourinho: He loves the pace on and The Cleaner will set it up today. Extra 200m today and the pace will be a harder tempo, he needs to produce his best to feature here. Drawn a gem of a barrier to get the right run.
4. Contributer: WFA-G1 winner x2 last prep and WFA-G2 winner over 1400m first up. It’s very hard to be ‘against’ the horse today from barrier 2, he maps just off the pace in say 6th or 7th and will have every chance to win, but will he be rock hard fit first up considering how far off the Cox Plate still is? I have massive questions over it and think that he could get exposed by the tempo expected.
5. The Cleaner: Very strong run first up. Loves this track and loves the 1600m. If the rail is playing well enough then you have to consider him a chance, but i have my query on this rail today and i just can’t back him to get all the favours required.
6. Banca Mo: Have to admit old mate loves the 1600m distance but his best last prep was over further. Can run a cheeky race.
7. Dibayani: I was very impressed with his first up run in Australia over the unsuitable 1400m. Up to 1600m looks very well suited and stable seem to be confident he can go close. Will love a hot speed on.
8. Bagman: Two wins in a row but back to 1600m and harder company… just couldn’t back him here today even if he is going great guns!
9. Big Memory: I hear people are backing him in again.. hasn’t won in close to a year for a reason… he is hard to catch and i’ll take him on in this grade.
10. Gallante: Williams runner who on paper has some very nice form lines, but that doesn’t include 1600m… needs 2000m+ to find best and best runs on soft ground.
11. Kenjorwood: I really liked his last start run when did alot wrong and was poorly ridden. New jockey and perfect barrier today to have every chance. Certainly a step up in class but i think he is capable of causing a massive upset today loving a fast tempo. Will be there late!
12. No Tricks: Not the worst run last start behind most in this field. Others preferred though.
Comments: I’m not going to talk anyone out of backing Contributer today. He is clearly the best horse in this race, but i don’t see any value at all in the price. The $3 promo price that was bet by Crownbet was certainly a good price, but i’d really need $2.50+ to be betting him today. The main reason for this is the fact The Cleaner will be setting a blistering tempo in the race and you are expecting Contributer first up on a long campaign towards a Cox Plate to run what would need to be a 95% fit run to match up… also the barrier does rail some queries if stuck on the rail. So who do i want to be on here? It’s not The Cleaner. I think the rail won’t give him enough advantage even though i really liked his last start run. I’m also going to take on Mourinho even though he is so consistent. The two that i want to follow forward at Dibayani and Kenjorwood. The Kenjorwood one is simple, you know that i know this horse, it is best suited to a strong tempo and will sit just off The Cleaner, it will have every chance if good enough from that barrier and i think it is good enough. Dibayani has untapped potential and proved it measuring up to the highest levels overseas… first up was more than enough for me to believe he can win this.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg Two: 4, 5, 7, 11
Strategy: Dibayani to win. Smaller bet Kenjorwood.
Moonee Valley Race 8 – 1000m – Mitty’s McEwen Stakes
Gear Changes: Kuro – Tongue Tie First Time, I’m All The Talk – Bubble Cheeker Near Side On OFF again & Winkers Again & Blinkers Off First Time, Sistonic – Lugging Bit Off First Time & Standard Bit First Time & Tongue Tie First Time, Headwater – Winkers First Time, Furnaces – Cross Over Noseband Off First Time, Parcel – Tongue Tie Off First Time.
1. Chautauqua: First time at Moonee Valley certainly a consideration you have to take into account. Best runs have been seen at tracks with long straights. Won 3 from 4 first up and finished last prep winning the TJ and then 0.5L 3rd to Dissident… hard to argue with that form. Certainly will need a bit of luck from barrier 12 in running but he is a superstar. The main issue is the lack of form from this stable right now… have they got things going right for this bloke?
2. Flamberge: Clear danger to the favourite on ratings. Group 1 winner last prep over in Morphetville. Ran Chautauqua to 0.2L first up last prep also. Clear danger and maps perfectly.
3. It Is Written: Doesn’t win out of turn and last win was in much easier class. First up form only fair at best. Loves this track.
4. Kuro: With the Freedman stable now, this bloke loves to run well without winning as proved by last prep! Obviously a serious horse and barrier 2 today gives him every chance. First up record is great and he runs well at all tracks.
5. The Quarterback: Better runs always later into preps. Good type over this distance in the past but first run at MV a concern. Has the ability so don’t dismiss. Bleed issues last prep i was told.
6. It’s All the Talk: Disappointing last prep couldn’t get a place. In reality first up run was okay but didn’t deliver on previous prep form. One i want to take on today.
7. Tycoon Tara: Consistent type, she ran some very nice races last prep with wins over her own sex. Much harder here first up today.
8. Miss Steele: Every chance all three runs last prep. 4th in FM-Gp1 hard to just ignore and expected to be not dead last today (still out the back).
9. Sweet Emily: Two runs to date suggest not a chance in hell. Gone backwards.
10. Klishina: Too far back last start to be a real threat… liked the run but barrier 15 today gives no chance to redeem that run.
11. Written Dash: One hit wonder, doubt she will win another race.
12. Sistonic: Proved to have a lot of ability first prep in. Stable suggests she is the best horse going around at home in terms of how she works and they feel she has to be considered if she can produce today.
14. Furnaces: Finished last prep with a very good 2YO-G3 win. Previous run 2l 6th in the Golden Slipper a good run also. Respect and the weight gives massive chance to him.
Comments: A race in five by our numbers. I had to include Kuro but i couldn’t back at the price offered today. Sistonic is in the same boat. Furnaces looks a very good horse in the making but off the 2YO runs i have to take on every at the weights in this top level before i see he is the real deal. We are getting some good prices today to be able to back both Chautauqua and Flamberge to come up with a result.
Confidence 85%
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 2, 4, 12, 14
Strategy: Chautauqua 2.5 units to win. Flamberge 1 unit to win. (Roughly $1.90 odds for either to win)
Moonee Valley Race 9 – 2040m – @WillHillWolf Handicap
Gear Changes: Renew – Visor Off First Time, Wexford Town – Blinkers First Time, Prizum – Blinkers Again.
1. Almoonqith: Very strong run first up at course over 1500m and the step up to 2040m today is exactly what the doctor ordered. Group 3 winner over 2810 over in AE last prep… he looks primed for this from good barrier.
3. Ihtsahymn: Ex-WA runner, his first two runs in the state were fine without exactly threatening to win. Up to 2040m today looks ideal based on alst prep WFA-G2 0.8L off a win. Been a long time between drinks an issue but have to respect from barrier and could be ridden further forward.
4. Renew: Poor record first up and need further than this to find his best.
5. Diametric: Every chance well backed favourite last start when beaten by Our Voodoo Prince… who was then sold if that tells you what the owners though of the horse! Poor barrier the concern.
6. Our Voodoo Prince: With the new stable after the last start win at Caulfield. Poor record at this track and didn’t show much two back. Have to respect on last start win at this distance and in this class.
7. Lord Durante: Had a charmed run last start at Caulfield and failed to finish off his race, was very disappointing really. 1 week backup though so stable aren’t concerned. Quaddie inclusion.
9. Digitalism: A long time between runs for this bloke who has had a freshen up. While this race certainly doesn’t look out of his class, his best runs have been on softer tracks this prep and always have been and this looks a step up also.
10. Shenzhou Steeds: Old Shenzy is flying with two wins in a row. By The Grace won a cup over in Adelaide during the week also backing up the form lines. D Oliver takes the ride… barrier 14 the only negative.
11. Turner Bayou: Two runs were both terrible this prep. Impossible to have.
12. Correggio: Decent type and his last start run was respectable, but hard to see the improvement to pass Shenzhou Steeds.
13. Doumaran: Another Williams import. Clearly best runs were over much further than this over in France. Take on today needs the run.
14. Wexford Town: Led and disappointing only run in Australia. Doesn’t look as good a type as the other Williams runner for mine on form lines.
15. Albonetti: Certainly flew home last start when never a chance and wasn’t suited by the way the track was playing. Won’t get any favours today either even though barrier 5 suits. Inexperienced jockey a massive issue for me having not even ridden at this track the past 12 months. Jockey hasn’t won a race the past 12 months worth more than 20k prize money to his horse!
16. Prizum: Old mate loves to flash home and last start was no different when he never exactly looked the winner but threatened. Will do the same again today but barrier hurts chances alot more today also.
17. Diaghan: Three runs and had every chance and just not good enough. taking on even though Dunn goes onboard.
18. Stellarized: First up run too poor to be correct? Have to rate on three previous runs last prep but hard to have the faith on first up.
Comments: A rough way to end the day with such an open race. Several key chances but it doesn’t end there! Lord Durante goes into the mix as always but i can’t touch at the price. Shenzhou Steeds looks a big chance and form backs his claims up, but the barrier does mean he could get caught wide. What did Diametric and Our Voodoo Prince actually battle last start? I’m convinced they beat the second-raters and I have to take both of them on in the win markets. I think Almoonqith up to this distance today will be a different horse to last start and will be well suited.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 3, 5, 6, 7, 10
Strategy: Almoonqith E/W
