Welcome to The Profits form guide for Oaks Day at Flemington on the 5 November 2015. Let’s start off by saying this is probably the hardest card i’ve seen all year. There are races I absolutely want nothing to do with on the card today and it’s with great horror i can only put up one best bet for the day, the card is just that hard. Reflecting on Tuesday, it was amazing to see Michelle get the win on Prince of Penzance… our speed map worked out the tempo perfectly and while we didn’t tip POP in our tips, we did say it could win which is more than most did. Our day ended up okay on Tuesday with our Best Bet ending up money back, Next Best winning and Other Bet losing. Overall profitable on those 3 bets. We couldn’t back up the great Quaddie win on Derby Day with that one on Tuesday.. which was impossible… i could have had POP but never had Sea Lord. Here is a great track tool for tomorrow to see exactly how wet the track is in different parts. Looking forward to the rains coming and we will get some fair racing. As always, i hope your form matches up with mine. Good luck and happy punting.
Melbourne Best Bet
Flemington Race 8 – Two Horse Play – Sacred Eye & Ambience
Back Sacred Eye for 2.6 units. Also back Ambience for 2.4 units. Confident play.
Melbourne Quaddie
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 2, 3, 6, 9, 16, 17
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 3, 4, 7, 9, 14, 18
Quaddie Leg Three: 3, 4
Quaddie Leg Four: 2, 3, 4, 7, 8, 11
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Flemington Race 1 – 1700m – Red Rock Deli Plate
1. Monopole: Solid enough first prep with placings in listed company and wasn’t too far off them over 2500m in a 3F-GP3 race. First up run won well at Ballarat. Time wasn’t that impressive but will obviously improve onwards and looks to be in the right race today.
2. Royal Ocean: Last 7 runs failed to get within 3.3L off a win. Struggle to suggest here today on previous runs.
3. Solar Burst: Ignore last start when too far back and the true staying test was on. Back to 1700m.. horrible barrier will be back. Two and three back runs good enough to consider.
4. Unfurl: Three runs this prep and not within 5.3L. No thanks… but this is the Weir stable and horse did win a 3YO race over 2000m at Caulfield so I don’t know.
5. Finda Fitter Filly: Good win two back at Bendigo and then ignore last start at Geelong when passed fit at barrier. Can run well enough here.
6. I’m A Tiger: Two wins in a row in much easier races. Good win last start from the back at Pakenham. Will measure up.
7. Primeiro: Well beaten last start in easier company at Cranbourne – was galloped on. D Oliver onboard… hardest company for this horse to date.
8. Zamperini: Beaten fairly last start by Monopole after winning two races in a row. Up in distance probably required based on Maiden win. Barrier poor.
9. Champagne Cocktail: Good run last start at Moonee Valley. Best runs last prep were good enough to suggest she can win this. Need to improve but does go well at this track. Best run on record was on a soft track. Well in.
10. Hipster Girl: Easy enough maiden win first up. Best runs last two preps in her maidens previous to this. Has some ability but has to improve clearly and won’t get as easy a win as last start.
11. Tricky Affair: Maiden win at Bendigo then just got a win at Tatura last start. Going to the country to get the wins. Has to continue on with the form to win here.
12. Taylah’s Secret: Well beaten all three runs this prep. Safe to take on with current form, but does have a win at distance/class last prep.. but has been showing form.
13. Yellen: BM-60 win 5 horse field Kembla. Not exactly the ideal lead in. Handles wet tracks. Beaten soundly by Champagne Cocktail last time they met.
14. Miss Wilson: NZ Import. Very easy win first up but last start over-raced something fierce and was never a chance. Much harder this race also. Has to do everything right.
15. Maxie’s Blue Girl: 2YO-LR 4th over distance. Won maiden last start over 1400m. Has ability to consider but has to improve also.
16. In Unison: Maiden winner at big odds last start. Hard to see the next step here.
Comments: Champagne Cocktail is the only horse I could be on in this wide open race. Ran well the last two starts in similar company, will be on speed and best form from last prep on soft shows she is good enough here.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Champagne Cocktail E/W
Flemington Race 2 – 1800m – Swisse Wellness Trophy
3. Libran: Looked a good type overseas in the UK winning a few races between 2000m-2400m recently. On speed type and have to respect. Only issue is the distance today and the track condition may also be an issue with them keeping him mainly to dryer tracks over there.
4. Lucky Paddy: Good win last start at Moonee Valley in harder class. Made the jump up and should take the extra step over the 2000m. Has to improve though for mine to get the win.
5. Assign: Went over as favourite to Morphetville and was a touch disappointing Down in distance today a bit of a shock…. i think the key to this horse looks a firmer track and that’s why the horse was purchased.. soft track first up may explain the run? Would need a Good 4 track today and not a Soft 5?
6. Firehouse Rock: Doesn’t run a bad race. Continues to run well this prep. Just missed last start at Caulfield in easier company… well enough weighted today. Very tricky barrier.
7. High Midnight: Well beaten last two runs in Group 3 company. Back in class but still a very hard race. Need to improve. Soft firm recently only fair.
8. Baron Archer: Out the back early in the race last start when jumped with issues. Ran home very well and is nicely weighted gaining 1kg on Lucky Paddy for a 0.3L defeat for doing a lot wrong. D Oliver jumps off surprisingly.
9. Berisha: Didn’t beat much last start at Pakenham but won very well. Proved to be a very good type last prep and finally showing it on the track. Has a strong turn of foot.
11. Plot The Course: Beat a nice type in Shikarpour last start at Bendigo coming off a 5L Cranbourne win. Clearly flying but has to improve again. Goes well on wet.
12. Manapine: Strong win two back at Flemington then respectable 5th in Group 1 behind Delicacy. Has won first up in the past (Maiden over 1400m) and won it well. Will be out the back today an issue and doesn’t have a great strike rate in this type of company over distances below 2500m
13. Scherzoso: Step up again today. last two runs up in Sydney ran okay enough over similar distances. Has to clearly improve.
15. Bikila: Needs further on everything we have seen in the past… not going well this prep.
Comments: I’m not convinced Berisha is a $3.90 shot here like the odds suggest, it’s much more open than that. I doubt i’ll be betting here but if i was Baron Archer is the right price on the E/W off that last run.
Confidence 50%
Strategy: Baron Archer E/W
Flemington Race 3 – 1400m – Subzero Challenge
1. Slate on Edge: Ran it on stronger than expected last start at Moonee Valley but did have every chance. Continues to run well this prep and will be there or there abouts at the end. Key chance and one of two on speed runners.
2. Secret Toy Bizness: Every chance last start at MV but not good enough well beaten by two others. Better suited back to Flemington.
3. Adorabubble: Blowout winner at Doomben off a hot tempo in a very nice type from an on speed position with a low weight. Never won from 6 starts on a wet track.
4. Quicksilver Lass: Not sure what to make of her. Well beaten in a city grade BM-75 first up then out to Gold Coast for a CL4 win. Previous prep in VIC did win at Sandown over 1600m and measured up in lesser class at Flemington. Not the worst here.
5. Totolo: Over-raced last start at MV and was a disappointing run. Equal weight today, hard to have against others here.
6. Clemo: Looked a very good horse last prep but didn’t get to the very top class. Over the 1400-1600m distances proved himself more than capable of beating them in this. One run on Soft was in much higher class and no disgrace 3.3L off Bagman over further. Class runner and good barrier.
7. Waitaha Prophecy: Runs well on wet tracks. Last two runs well beaten in easier class than this. Only fairly weighted.
8. Wilscot: Did a lot wrong last start at Caulfield. Previous form suggests needs to improve to be a winning hope. Could place.
9. Harbour Grey: Lightly raced type beaten in a BM-64 last start. Hard to suggest. Place?
10. Liming: 3L off a win in a country BM-64. Last win R-58. Not for me.
Comments: It’s an interesting race on paper. I think Clemo is the best horse in the race while Slate on Edge will be hard to beat from on speed. You couldn’t talk me into the $3.20 about Harbour Grey, looks well unders.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Clemo on the Each-Way
Flemington Race 4 – 1100m – Gucci Stakes
1. Ottoman: Proved to be a Group 3 winner last prep on Heavy. 3L 9th in the Slipper. 0.8L off English the run before that. Obviously has ability but two runs this prep both on soft she hasn’t got close. Over-raced first up but last start on speed found nothing. Back to 1100m today first time down the straight.
4. Lake Geneva: Huge return to form last start with a very solid win back on a Good track at Moonee Valley. Moore takes ride… first time down straight… big issue if wet today for mine.
5. Miss Idyllic: Nice win last start at Moonee Valley beating an average bunch of horses. Back into form is a solid sign. Two runs down the straight for 0 places a concern.
6. Secret Agenda: Over-raced last start at Caulfield when a solid 2nd. No disgrace that 2nd placing to a good horse. No wet form a slight concern but well enough weighted here today to win if handles the straight.
8. Tempt Me Not: Nice horse. Hasn’t ever measured up to this class in the past though is a concern. Last four runs solid but has to improve on runs to date.
9. Band On The Run: Maiden winner out in the country. Attempts in top class failed. Not for me.
10. Zara Bay: Very good start to finish winner at Warwick Farm in solid time. Never run on a wet track previous. Only run in group company didn’t measure up but was a top class race a while ago.
11. Petite’s Reward: Did a lot wrong last start at Moonee Valley. Ran well enough first up.
12. Minetti: Measured up enough in 2YOF grade last prep. Solid enough time run.
13. Stream Ahead: Looked a good type last prep. First up run was fine but last two runs found nothing.
14. Riapinka: Easy win last start in MUCH easier race. Only run on soft won.
15. Ocean Embers: Well beaten last start in this grade. Hard to see measuring up even off the strong maiden win first up.
17. Lady Esprit: Well backed last start at Mornington behind Jalan Jalan. Has ability on first up run last prep.
19. Little Indian: Every chance last start in maiden company. Blocked for runs but no excuse. Others better.
Comments: Wide open race.
Confidence 40%
Strategy: Secret Agenda to win.
Flemington Race 5 – 1800m – TCL Curved TV Stakes
1. Ragnaar: Much improved run last start at Geelong. Back to 1800m a query on two previous runs? Went okay on soft in the past.
2. Loyalty Man: Won well in his maiden last start at Bendigo with ease. Two runs back very fair run on speed in similar class for 4th. Went a bit too fast I’d suggest.
3. Sea of Tranquility: Two runs at Mornington heading into this and couldn’t win BM-64 grade. Safe to say this is harder.
4. War Legend: Maiden winner only. Last two runs he was well beaten in easier grade of races. Up to 1800m probably suit.
5. Kryptonian: No luck last start at Geelong. Previous prep well beaten favourite at Flemington over 1400m in similar class. Obviously has ability but has to prove it.
6. Hursley: Maiden win in only fair times at Hawksbury two back. Well beaten last start at Canterbury. Others preferred on that run.
7. Bullish Stock: Very easy win two back at Benalla in R-58 grade. Obviously much harder here than that. Didn’t measure up well enough two back for mine.. back to 1800m may help though.
8. Baheej: Maiden only winner at Cranbourne. Time was very slow.
9. Duke of Boneo: Good enough win last start in maiden grade over 1600m and the time run was solid. Good barrier today.
10. Sound The Trumpet: Horrible run last start in maiden grade. Can’t see the step up first run.
11. Freedoms: Couldn’t place in maiden grade this prep. No thanks.
12. Bengal Cat: Very disappointing run on the soft track on speed over the 2000m. Two runs back at Moonee Valley ran much better but it was a firm track. best can measure up from the 54kg today, but has to show it here.
13. Ashlee Marie: Well beaten last start at course over 2000m. Hard to see the run required on current form.
14. Tabi Bay: Average maiden win at Bendigo last start. Can run well off that if improves on.
15. Ma Raison: Looked okay first prep. Well beaten as favourite first up at Cranbourne doing a lot wrong.
16. Holy Lula: Couldn’t win a slowly run maiden from on speed. Not here.
Comments: Another very average race on the card today, seems to be a developing theme. The fact that Ragnaar and Bengal Cat are the favourites says a lot about the quality of the race. Kryptonian rates as having the most potential and I know the horse will handle a wet track, plus a solid barrier should see the right run.
Confidence 20%
Strategy: Kryptonian E/W
Flemington Race 6 – 1000m – Dilmah Earl Grey Stakes
1. Nicoscene: Clearly a very good horse. 3Y-GP2 winner last prep on a soft track. Only run at course was a fail but wasn’t down the straight. Never won first up but always run well. Should measure up to this grade.
2. It Is Written: 3 runs at track in the past for 0 placings. 4 runs in the past on soft or heavy for just 1 placing. Best runs on Good surfaces and tighter tracks.
3. Unanimously: Continues to run well without winning. Very good run at Moonee Valley when never got a clear run at them late. Only run at track was a non-placed run, but have to forgive. Best stats on dryer tracks but did run Pago Rock at Caulfield in Open company to 0.1L on soft.
4. Fast Cash: Well beaten the last two starts in easier company. Two runs for two places on Soft so does handle it. Has to improve on my ratings… will handle straight.
5. Atmospherical: Out the back last start at Randwick. Ran on strongly to finish within 1.8L. Going the right way form wise and her best is good enough to measure up, but clearly needs to find a length today and soft tracks haven’t ever provided her with her best runs.
6. The Quarterback: Very good run from the back last two starts at Caulfield. Has won twice down the straight in the past and looks to be back to his best. Goes well enough on soft tracks.
7. Office Bearer: Loves to pop up around Spring time with a win. Well beaten to finish last prep on a soft track a concern with best rating runs in the past on good tracks. Handles the straight.
8. Danger Close: Took a listed race last prep and then failed to fire every run since. hard horse to follow. Never won on soft. Goes well fresh but does always seem to need a run.
9. Fab Fevola: Old Mate! His best runs in the past have always been on a firm track. You know I’m his biggest fan… chances really depend on track condition. Good 4 and he can win, Soft 5 and I can’t see it even on form.
10. Magnus Reign: Nice return run at Moonee Valley. Can improve onwards from that run and measure up here. Last two runs at track ran 1st and 2nd. Handles the track. Soft track form hard to agree with here though.
11. General Jackson: Wet track form not the best coming into this yet to win on it. Two runs down the straight and failed on both occasions. Last start run well enough to measure up but has to improve.
12. Cashed: Well beaten last start at Moonee Valley showing how flawed the form two back is. Has to improve and never placed on track in two runs. Will appreciate the wet track.
13. Tudor: Old mate always runs well. Good run 2nd to Reldas from on speed last start. Run down straight in past and didn’t see out the run which was disappointing. Wet track form okay though with a 3Y-GP2 second on record. Good horse.
15. Beau Rada: Good run two back at Caulfield and then got the win last start at Cranbourne. Consistent. Running well. Has to improve but has ability.
16. Tawteen: Beat home a good horse in Diamond Oasis last start at Moonee Valley. 3 runs at course for 0 wins a big concern… always well backed as well. Only run on soft was defeated as 2nd favourite running a slow enough time at Moonee Valley to win. Has to improve on that effort… going well enough.
17. Wild Rain: Loves it wet. 0 places from 3 first up runs in the past a massive issue. 2 runs down the straight and best run was 3.5L 3rd. Her best is good enough based on the 2nd to Miss Promiscuity in WFA-G3 at Caulfield. Just have to believe this is very winable.
18. Klishina: Hard horse to catch. Been two preps with no wins but always runs a nice race. Probably should have won last stat in much easier. Weighted well enough.. ran 4th 3.5L to Chautauqua two back. Handles soft… 3 runs 1 place down straight.
19. It’s Poets Day: Suited on pace last start at MV and just missed. Much harder. Has run down the straight once before but never in this grade.
Comments: Talk about an absolute mine field to start the Quaddie! Wild Rain should have every chance if good enough to win today. Will get the track to suit.
Confidence 60%
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 2, 3, 6, 9, 16, 17
Strategy: Wild Rain E/W
Flemington Race 7 – 1100m – G.H. Mumm Stakes
1. Eloping: Clearly has ability. 3 runs at track and just missed a few times down the straight. 2nd up form is solid and only run on a soft track was a win. First up run off the speed was the difference I feel… hasn’t won in more than a year a concern for such a talented mare with over $1mill in earnings.
3. Afleet Esprit: Drawn well enough to get a sit and to run on late. Only run on soft was okay. Slow away last start meant she was just too far back off a leader dominated race. Previous run was good. Has won at track previously.
4. Miss Promiscuity: Crying out for the wet track and gets it today. Very good run from on speed last start at Caulfield just to miss. Weighted nicely here and from inside barrier will get a good rails position. Has won at course and distance.
5. Ygritte: Beat a nice type in Federal on soft last prep over 1200m in 3YO-LR grade. First up run very poor from on speed. Take on.
6. I Love It: Well enough suited and ran nicely first up at Caulfield. Never placed at track but last win ever was on a soft track. Has to improve but has the ability.
7. In Style: Went around as our best bet of the day last start at Caulfield and missed the start by at least 5 lengths. It was a horror day honestly. Group 1 winner over 1200m from on speed back home and also Group 3 winner. Only run on soft didn’t place which is a little concerning but it was a long time ago. Group 1 winner and only gets 57.5kg here. Well over the odds.
8. The Messina Nymph: Goes nicely enough on soft tracks. Three runs this prep ran well enough but last start with no issues failed very hard. Not for me on that run. Does handle straight.
9. Brook Road: Given a ‘nothing’ run last start at Caulfield and never a chance. Very big run two back at Moonee Valley. Appreciates wet tracks… have to consider if handles straight.
10. Dublin Lass: Very good horse on last few preps… ignore last start run. Goes well first up but this is a big assignment. Best runs on dryer tracks. Tough ask today.
11. Japhils: Was every chance last start at Caulfield but Afleet Esprit got past. Consistent type. Prefers dryer.
12. Pittsburgh Flyer: Blocked for runs last start at Caulfield so forgive run. Based on previous form I think she has to improve to win this. Has won at track down straight a positive. Average wet form though.
13. Nautical: Two runs this prep has improved each time. Has to improve onwards again to measure up in this though.. 1 win from 10 starts at track. Never won on wet.
14. Hidden Pearl: Very good horse. I have a massive opinion of her. Can win.
15. I Am Gypsy: Won 3 in a row going through the grades over in Adelaide. This is a massive jump up in grade though. Soft form not good enough.
16. Catch That Cat: Meow. Strong win four back… last three runs proved she is just a step off them this prep.
17. Judical Rock: One I’m happy to take on in this race. Only wins on soft tracks.
18. Tuscan Sling: Only run on a wet track was a 3L maiden win on heavy. Ran very well the two runs this prep but needs to improve to be winning again today.
19. Northern Saint: Nice enough runs the last few runs this prep but one I’m happy to take on. Hasn’t shown best on the soft.
20. Matilija: Every chance the last three runs. Others preferred.
21. Oh So Assertive: I like this horse but even i couldn’t suggest a win in this class.
Comments: Lumosty heads to the main race on Saturday so we have a very open race. Hidden Pearl is a massive chance on my ratings while In Style is huge overs for a Group 1 winner. This race is wide open on paper.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 3, 4, 7, 9, 14, 18
Strategy: Back Hidden Pearl and In Style to win.
Flemington Race 8 – 2500m – Crown Oaks
1. Pasadena Girl: Continues to run well this prep without going close to a win. Has been set for one race this prep and this is it by all accounts. Stable have a huge opinion of her. Will be off the speed coming on late. Will need the bias to be playing better than yesterday. Won a Group 1 on a soft track at 2.
2. Jameka: Top class form this prep. 3rd in the Guineas prelude, 2nd in the Guineas, 1st last start beating a good field at Moonee Valley – just keeps on improving and looks as though she will handle the step up in distance with no issue. Only issue is no wet track form – horses bred by sire have a higher wet strike rate than dry.
3. Sacred Eye: Continues to run well and never far off a win if beaten. Don’t Doubt Mamma won yesterday franking the form lines as well. High Chap bred so we know she will get the distance and High Chaps have a better win rate on wet than dry tracks. Questionable form around Lizard Island who was horrible in the Derby, but the horse probably didn’t stay.
4. Ambience: Huge win last start at course over 2000m. Slowly run race which suited the horse perfectly… has a very solid turn of foot and most importantly is proven on a soft track. Breeding screams ‘I want this distance’. Key chance.
5. Honesta: Beat home Ambience last start at Caulfield off the hot tempo. Safe to say she outstayed her rival. Awkward barrier today but will get a sit around midfield. Three runs in a row she has been within 1L of a win but didn’t get there. Handles wet tracks.
7. The Grey Flash: 4 runs this prep and never gone close to a place. Struggle to suggest.
8. Muzyka: Was backed last start at Flemington but well beaten. Yes, she did finish off well enough but the bird had flown 200m before that. Have to improve. Barrier interesting.
9. Ritzy: Maps to sit on speed today, but they did sit her out the back last start from a reasonable barrier. Previous runs have been on or just off the speed. If leads, don’t exactly expect a furious tempo to be set.
10. Zarabeel: Well beaten both runs in this class this prep behind all the fancied runners here. Maps out the back or midfield, but has to clearly improve lengths on the last few runs. Last start did show signs that she can run a nice race but not winning for mine.
11. Dulverton: Went around a big price last start at Geelong and finished off nicely. Extra distance will suit but has to improve on what we saw then. Will fancy the wet track.
12. Princess Aria: Well beaten last two starts. 8 runs to date and failed to place in any.
Comments: I’m convinced that this is a two horse race with Sacred Eye the ‘JUST’ top pick from Ambience and both will be sitting just off the speed. We can get a very good price for either of these two horses to win currently with 2.6 units on Sacred Eye and 2.4 units on Ambience. This will be 5 units down for 11 units back ratio.
Confidence 90%
Quaddie Leg Three: 3, 4
Strategy: Back Sacred Eye for 2.6 units. Also back Ambience for 2.4 units.
Flemington Race 9 – 1600m – Crown Resorts Plate
1. Kourkam: First up and unfancied last start at Moonee Valley. Has the horse gotten over whatever made his form turn horrible last prep? Not sure on that last start run to be honest. Hard to have.
2. Excites Zelady: Continues to run well this prep in similar class. 4 runs 0 places on a soft track on the record but does go okay on wet really.
3. Burning Front: Well backed to beat Turn Me Loose in the Seymour Cup and didn’t go close. Two back run was a very solid run at Moonee Valley. Best runs on dryer tracks.
4. Zebrinz: Every chance each run this prep and continues to fall far short. Goes okay on wet tracks.
5. Electric Fusion: Very nice run three back but two runs since found absolutely nothing. Hard to have. Never won on wet.
7. Rock Forthe Ladies: Just won last start at Moonee Valley in greys race. This is obviously much harder. Really is he good enough to take the next step? Not convinced.
8. Lord Athenaeum: A really decent type of horse. Two good wins in a row. Has to improve again.. 3 runs in this class for 0 placings so far.
9. Leveraction: Stuck on solidly as always last start but didn’t have enough in the tank. Expect similar today. Could a wetter track help though?
10. Audino: Not going well enough this prep to suggest.
11. Act of Valour: Well beaten from on speed last start at Geelong. coming off a decent run at Caulfield from the back. Measured up as a 3YO but not sure on this preps form. Handles the wet.
12. Aurum Spirit: Others preferred based on runs and no wins on soft tracks.
13. Seul Spirit: Surprise winner last start at Geelong at big odds. Has to improve on that run.
14. Kinacple Chief: Wide last start. Previous run only fair. Doing a bit wrong. Has to improve.
15. Distant Rock: Well beaten last start. Take on based on runs this prep.
19. My Dancing Duel: Couldn’t win in BM-64 grade this prep.
20. Way Too Easy: Others preferred, struggle to suggest the win.
Comments: Hard way to finish the day. Burning Front has the perfect barrier to get the perfect run. The horse is consistent and it’s the only way i could approach the race at the weights.
Confidence 65%
Quaddie Leg Four: 2, 3, 4, 7, 8, 11
Strategy: Burning Front E/W
