Welcome to The Profits write up for Magic Millions day! It also happens to be my birthday (27th) so I won’t be as active on twitter as normal due to some birthday party commitments. The card at Flemington looks to be fairly straight forward, but there isn’t really much confidence to be had about any of the runners. There simply isn’t something that you say ‘That will bolt in’. The good news that comes from this is that you can generally pick some good runners at large odds. Our new Tennis writer has come on board this week and will be covering the Australian Open Men’s draw in-depth to help you make some winning decisions. Don’t forget to check out his analysis and key statistics graph of all the top 32 seeds. Some of the stats are worth their weight in gold for in-play trading, especially the ‘won after won first set’ etc! As always, we hope your form matches up with ours. Good luck and happy punting!
Best VIC
Flemington Race 5 SpaceCraft
Best QLD
Gold Coast Race 5 No Looking Back
Best NSW
Rosehill Race 6 Marden
Best Value
Flemington Race 4 Lamingtons
Flemington race 6 Big Buddie
Rosehill Race 5 Long Lasting
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters Paradise – http://www.puntersparadise.com.au/form-guide/
Watch previous runs here – http://bigpondvideo.com/Horse_Racing
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means a speculation pick.
Flemington
Flemington Race 1
Midnight Rule: On first two runs this prep not good enough here.
Thermal Current: First horse to race out of a fairly handy mare who won 180k in prize money. Market will guide you.
Mount Zero: Ran on very well first up behind Safeguard. Could be progressive enough to win today.
Minaj: Good start to finish win in lesser class in an average time. May find this a little stronger today.
Margaret Miss: Can’t have today on first up run.
Drifting Cube: Can’t have on first up run.
Land Ho Baby: Half-sister has shown no form. Need to see it in the parade ring.
Ms Funovits: Related to some fairly handy mares and colts including Chase the Rainbow who has won close to 300k in prize money. Boss booked and if looked great in the yard, will be one we could be interested in backing at the right price.
Confidence 50%
Flemington Race 2
Manila Jewel: Seems to have been up far too long this prep. At top weight and just shouldn’t be winning even in this grade off recent runs.
Lucky Angel: Ran very well last start in the Werribee Cup. Down in class today and up 1kg with Duric on board. Only issue is getting a run as may get trapped on the rails from barrier 1. May be suited by the longer distances but is a quality 2000m horse.
Genuine Spin: Returned to form last start at Moonee Valley and should appreciate the step up to 2000m today. Up in class again but has won once and placed once in this class. Has a win from only start at track also. Big chance today.
Streets of Seattle: Kept on finding last start but wasn’t good enough. Up 0.5kg today and onto a straight track, may not last the full straight. Can run well though.
Be Tolerant: On previous runs looks outclassed today.
Warwarick: Not the worst in a much harder field last start. Back to the 2000m which seems to be her pet distance.
Johanna’s Own: Has ability but this is a huge step up in class today. Others better weighted.
Sayangku: On first two runs this prep not good enough.
Confidence 70%
Flemington Race 3
Macedonian: Hasn’t shown enough to win today from previous runs. May appreciate extra distance.
Module: Newitt off and Thornton back on for the claim. Meets Crafty Cruiser 1.5kg better off today after a 1L win last start. Never won or placed at this distance but the 300m down in distance isn’t that much of a factor and looks well weighted today.
Crafty Cruiser: Keeps putting in solid runs. Never won from 11 at course and meets Module 1.5kg worse. Has the ability but needs a big turn around. Not sure he has much more improvement than last two starts.
I’m Jake: Disappointing run last start. Seems to not enjoy the long Flemington straight. Should be able to go closer if tries to lead this up today. 1.5kg worse off at weights today compared to Module.
Tuscan Fire: Short price favourite today after a very strong win last start at course. Up 500m today which on previous form is no issue having won 3 from 6. Up 3kg today seems fair also. The only question mark around him is if he can run out the extra 500m from out the front.
Pergola: On previous form not in this today.
Almodovar: Down to 54.5kg today suits but needs to find a few more lengths today. A slight hope if produces best.
Cry In Awe: Hard to see a win today on previous form lines.
Confidence 70%
Flemington Race 4
Lamingtons: Very strong start to finish win at Moonee Valley last start. Up 3.5kg today on that run and if produces a similar run can go very close again today. Barrier 11 means she will have to do a big of work early but shouldn’t be an issue.
Octavia: Progressive horse who landed a good win last start at the Valley. Up 1kg for that run today which was made even more impressive when you hear the horse lost a plate. Huge ability and will be hard to pass. Only question is if 1000m isn’t her best distance.
Legcut: Showed a lot of promise last prep before things went wrong coming over to Melbourne city class races. If trained on could run well today but suspect better suited to lesser class first up.
Agulhas: Gosford maiden winner. Not sure she will match up well against some handy horses here today.
Pitta Patta: Very disappointing first up. Down 2kg for that run but needs to show much more today.
Act Two: Ran on well last start at Caulfield and down 1kg today for that run strangely. Could find improvement today and go close.
Dance Card: Has ability but hasn’t shown enough to suggest the progression to winning this is there. Place chance..
Double Dee: Progressive type. Ran well last start at course and similar distance. Down 0.5kg here today and on that previous run could be winning this.
The Empress: Good first up run but failed to show much second up from too far back. Positioning further forward today to have a chance.
Good and Hot: Disappointing last start. If trained on can go close but up 5kg today a little harsh. Has the ability to win.
Cannes Destination: Need to improve big time to win this.
Chilli Beach: Looks too big a step up.
Carvalho: Outclassed today even when well weighted.
Spending: 3YO full sister to Shopaholic. No trial so hard to rate in such a competitive race.
Confidence 75%
Flemington Race 5
Lucky Eighty Eight: First up run was a simple forgive when got no run. Could run well today but off top weight will find it hard.
Over Quota: Back up to 1600m today suits and the 2kg claim is important. Has the ability but hasn’t shown best this prep.
Chasm: Suited last start by a super fast pace in the race. Will enjoy the step up in distance today. Could run well.
Spacecraft: Down 4kg today after claim. Ran a 1.8L 4th to Secret Liaison last start which is quality form. Just keeps getting beaten this prep. Looks suited here today though.
Boom ‘N’ Zoom: Never won at track or distance and only once from 7 first up. Can’t have today.
Dame Claire: Never won at distance but I wouldn’t put this past the horse. Can run well at 2000m so should be able to compete in lesser company today. Weighted nicely.
Bolton: Not classy enough on previous runs this prep. Getting old it seems.
Zabisco: Ignore last start run where a slow pace was put on during the race and look to two back. Has ability but needs a strong tempo.
Sadalbari: Not good enough.
Galileo Gold: Raced in a position he isn’t used to. Up 4.5kg today. Hard to have.
Rowland: Not good enough in this class on previous runs at this distance.
Sussuro: Not going well enough to win today in this class.
Laspiel: Not going well enough for this today up 3kg.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie leg one: 2, 3, 4, 6
Flemington Race 6
Veewap: Rather disappointing run first up. Up 1kg today and never won second up or at track from 6 and 8 starts.
Rockpecker: Poor run last start a little too far back. May sit further forward today and be in with a chance. Still needs to improve.
Under The Eiffel: This may be the race that he finally breaks through for a win. Has bene training on and running decent races but just getting unlucky. Should get a solid run and hit the line hard.
Orbit Express: Last two runs this prep have been solid but needs to find 2 lengths today.
Gold Sand: Good run first up and up 1kg. Never won or placed second up and never won or placed at track. Does have the ability to run well today.
By The Way: Up 1kg today and ran on well last start. I would be bold enough to suggest that Gold Sand ran on better and has slightly more upside.
Cosmic Causeway: Solid performer and if Moody has him running well could test these.
Future Solution: Good win last start at course and distance. Still needs to find another length or two today.
British General: Hard to see how this horse is still at the same weight on it’s last effort at course and distance. Good win and will be going forward again from barrier 1 and hitting the line hard. The one to beat.
Big Buddie: Ignore last start when ridden dead last. Will be pushed forward today to take a sit as per previous run where ran 2L 2nd to Adamantium which we know is very strong form. Weighted nicely today and should enjoy the long straight coming off the corner. Suggesting that he is a 2L better horse off a cornered track.
Dash For Viz: Blocked for run last start. Has the ability to improve again today.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie leg two: 3, 5, 8, 9, 10, 11
Flemington Race 7
Baron Douro: Simply ignore his first up run at Flemington and look to 3YO form. Has a great record at this track and runs very well down a straight. Weighted nicely again and is a big chance.
It Is Written: A brave as the day is long, he just couldn’t get the win last start. Big question mark on how he will handle the straight going out the front. Times suggest he can run well.
Mr Obvious: Meets Gig 3kg better off today but didn’t show enough finishing off the race to suggest can win today.
Roses In The Glen: Pulled up lame. Up 4.5kg today and down in grade. Has the ability to win this but can’t back on hope in this race.
Cavallo Nero: Ran very poorly first up and on that can’t have today.
Gig: Super impressive last start winning at course and distance. Ran 3rd to It Is Written two runs back and meets 1.5kg better off today. Is most likely a better horse at the straight than around the valley also. One of the top hopes.
Deceiver: Keeps getting blocked for runs. Has ability but needs to step up and improve by 2 lengths today.
Aashiq: Showed enough last start suggest has ability to compete in this grade but not at the 1200m. Happy to be against.
General Rippa: A very disappointing gelding in his second prep. Just couldn’t put it together. If produces first up run can go well today but doubt it.
Red Rain: Good first up run in lesser class and then beaten 2L by a horse that probably wouldn’t win this today. Up 1.5kg today. Can’t have.
Diamond Diggler: Not good enough on previous form. Seems suited to longer distances.
King’s Pardon: Will need to have trained on and improved 4-5L to win this today.
Champagne Shisha: Not good enough.
Posen: Not good enough. Unsure how it gets a run here.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie leg three: 1, 2, 6
Flemington Race 8
Angelology: Came over from New Zealand last start and got a win in much lesser class than this. Looks very progressive and if trained on will go close today.
Backbone: Genuine Spin running early in the day will give you a guide on how strong his form lines are. I’m going to suggest strong even if Genuine Spin runs 3rd. Up 20m today which will help and well weighted. Better suited to a longer straight and has the ability to go BANG today.
He’s A Steal: Form lines from last prep around Infinite Energy and Dayita is good but was super disappointing resuming first up. Up to 1800m suits better today but needs to show a lot more today to win.
Rahveel: Ran on well after missing the start. Should position further forward today. Has a chance.
Heez Notorious: Form lines are good but needs to show a lot more today to win. Suspect will be found to not be classy enough.
savitar: Hard horse to place. Won two of last three and looks progressive. Could surprise.
Classic Elle: Went very close here last start and up 400m today is a big call. Should be able to handle it but never competed at this distance previously! Weighted nicely.
Gogonski: Probably the most interesting runner of the race. Weighted VERY well. Down to 52.5kg after claims which is down 5.5kg after a 1L loss to hidden message at the valley last start which is good form lines. Can win.
Quick Snitzel: Progressive type who won well last start at Moonee Valley just getting the nod. Step up class wise again today but down 3kg. Has a huge chance.
Girl Gone Rockin: Not good enough at the Valley last start as $3 favourite but went close. The track gives her no excuses today apart from if she gets trapped from barrier 1. Weighted to win.
Amalgamate: Doesn’t seem good enough on last few runs although Noble Twostep did win last night at Cranny.
Lingo: Good win last start at Cranbourne but this is far too much of a step up it seems.
Adjuster: Big run last start at course. Looks progressive enough to handle 1800m and down 2kg. Could be a smokey.
Shoalhaven: Down 3kg today. Weighted nicely to win.
Confidence 65%
Quaddie leg four: 3, 8, 9, 10, 11
Gold Coast
Gold Coast Race 2
A number of chances in this race but it is hard to ignore Kinnersley coming up from Sydney for this race. Ignore last start when positioned too far back in the running and look to two back beating Scream Machine which is a HUGE form line. Barrier 6 to suit and will push forward today and be very hard to hold out. Will be interesting to see how Master Avatar measures up in this class.
Gold Coast Race 3
The four main runners for me in this race are all coming up from Sydney. Bennetta is up in class and fairly badly weighted up 2.5kg today. It was a super impressive win last start at Canterbury but needs to find much more today from barrier 13. Hold Me Closer is weighted a little better but still needs to find more today also. Looks progressive. The two main hopes look to be Mosse Diva and Capital Commander. Mosse Diva has strong form lines around Mahisara and Babel while Capital Commander lost a plate last start and should have won at Rosehill.
Gold Coast Race 4
Eagle Falls is certainly a risk today at the price. Last start first up we got $40s. Today it is $4s. No doubt he is the best in the race, it all comes down to if he has trained well. Schofield will give him every chance today. The main threats seem to be Leealan and Bella Rossie.
Gold Coast Race 5
A wide open race. All the punters are putting Sizzling up as value but I just can’t see the price being value here. The key runner here who gets the BEST run of the race from barrier 5 is No Looking Back. The only horse in the race who has competed recently outside of the 2/3YR old grades and WON a listed race impressively in the lead up. Weighted perfectly and is set for a massive win.. that she deserves after last year.
Gold Coast Race 6
From barrier 18, It will be a tough ride to win for Clevadude and the times he has put down havn’t convinced me. The two main hopes are Missy Longstocking and Assail. Both will get solid rides from barrier 1 and 5. The one issue with Assail is her first ever jump she was slowly away. That is death here from barrier 1 so we can’t have her.
Gold Coast Race 7
Not a massive fan of this race but the Waterhouse runner Fast Clip who has won a Group 3 previously and ran within 1.3L of More Joyous looks well suited as long as he has trained on.
Gold Coast Race 8
The run of WhisperRossa last start behind Travolta was impressive. Down 1.5kg today and down in class. Looks suited.
Rosehill
Rosehill Race 3
A fair few chances in this race but the stand out after the 3kg claim is Berrimilla. Looks suited here today.
Rosehill Race 4
Form behind Cathay Lady is strong right now and Havana Rey is a short price favourite for a reason. I couldn’t touch this race at the prices.
Rosehill Race 5
A few hard form lines to read here but there are two stand outs. Relaxed and Happy resuming today will be very hard to beat if returns fit and Long Lasting if you forgive last start when blundered and needed a vet exam, is weighted to win.
Rosehill Race 6
I hate saying the words, but Marden is ‘due’ a win today. Down 2kg after claim and from barrier 2 will get the run of the race if Collett makes it. The biggest danger for me is Fourtunefivehundred.
Rosehill Race 7
Keen on two runners here. The first is Sherocksmyworld resuming today with a 3kg claim down to 54.5kg. On previous prep form can run very close today. The other is Hadronica who is massively down in class and only up 2kg today. Goes well at the distance and can win on last two runs.
Rosehill Race 8
Radar ran well enough last start down 2kg today with McEvoy on board to suggest can win today. The other main chance is War Charm.
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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