Welcome to the weekends form. Last weekend provided some good racing and this weekend is no different. This week we are not looking at every race, but focusing on races we feel are worth looking at and the value around the three major meets. We will be updating our tips as the day goes depending on how the tracks are racing so please remember to follow us on twitter @TheProfitsComAu. You will notice additional notes this week in some races that ‘depend’ on how the racing is going, worth looking out for!
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au/tab/form/summary.php?meetingid=35986&raceid=314856
Speedmaps and form from Punters Paradise – http://www.puntersparadise.com.au/form-guide/
Watch previous runs here – http://bigpondvideo.com/Horse_Racing
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means a speculation pick.
Flemington Race 1
There are some pretty impressive horses in this race. Crystal Web won well first up and Harpers was BIG when returning but the one that stands out here for me is Eximius. First race out of the Mick Price yard with Newitt onboard. Get the feeling this horse will be the real deal with a nice breed and already gelded. They don’t seem to be mucking around.
Confidence 60%
Flemington Race 2
Donna Cattiva was super impressive winning last up by 4L. Was only a 7 horse race so not much depth you have to think and goes up 5kg for the ride. Had not produced anything previous to that since December 2011. Does seem suited by distance but interesting if she can back it up.
Fiveandahalfstar has been running well in quality races. Look 3 runs back to the 4th 1.3L to Dear Demi. Stats are suggesting he wants it wet today.
Affable out of Husson could be suited well by the step up in trip but not willing to risk it.
Confidence 75%
Flemington Race 3
Sparks Burn gave a solid run last start. Loves a long straight but would love the conditions to go from the Dead 4 it is currently to a Slow to have a chance here.
Kinselmac Manner is a horse WELL weighted today. After claim he is 52.5kg. Ran a solid second in harder class last up and has some very solid form. Big Value.
The New Boy meets Kinselmac Manner (who beat it by 0.2L) 2kg worse off. Although he does have Mallyon onboard, this weight difference will be hard to overcome.
Cash Bound with a 3kg claim meets Hot Lover 5kg better off today. This could bring him into the race when it counts.
Hot Lover has been impressive this prep. He just continues to improve, even a slow track didn’t stop him last time out and it is even more impressive on this track. The one to beat.
Confidence 80%
Flemington Race 4
Jumping Jack Cash is kind of an interesting runner. Has won 3 and placed once from 4 at this distance. Weighted well enough to go ok here. Might be worth adding to the Multipuls.
Anudjawun is an interesting runner. We all over he hasn’t actually won anything since his maiden but just keeps running well. Ran VERY well last up over the 3200 and was 0.8L behind Chasse three runs back. Chasse is 4kg up from that ride while Anudjawun is DOWN 3kg! That is a 7kg turn around. That is massive. I get the feeling he can win today.
Chasse – we love this horse, and once again he will run on strongly here but as just stated, 7kg worse off than Anudjawun, Also 1kg worse off vs playwright. Could still win this but would need to put down a brave effort.
Playwright is just so consistent. Barrier 17 is a bit annoying but he will push forward. Has an OK record on dead and will try and lead this at a pace that suits.
Module – Ignore last start poor run and has a chance. 3kg claim to 52.5kg makes it dangerous.
Heaven’s Riches can’t be ignored for 3Y-GP3 win two back. Could run well.
Finally, Noble Park. I wasn’t super impressed with his run last start and am happy to take him on in this grade of race.
Confidence 70%
Flemington Race 5
One of the races of the day for sure.
Let’s start with Second Effort. Has been dashing home late with some big runs and Flemington long straight will suit every more. Only issue is the weight. 4 wins from 8 at class. 6 wins from 12 at distance!
Elusive Touch is a MUST include in all quaddies. 3 wins 2 places from 11 at class, 4 wins 5 places from 14 at distance. October last year ran 1.5L behind lone rock in a GP3 and then in late november 2L behind Ortensia who improved on and won a massive race in Dubai a few months back. I would simply strike the first run from the record and be looking here for a solid run. Is 3 wins 1 place from 6 at Flemington. Will be interesting what tactics they use. Can go forward if they want.. I hope so!
Stratcombe is all quality. He was massive his last run and just keeps improving. Extra 2.5kg on his back looks about right. Will be hard to beat.
Liveandletdie is quality. The 2.5L behind Hay List 2 back is a good form line. Wasn’t right last race and can be forgiven for that run. Barrier 2 will suit.
Shopaholic. Love this filly. Up in class but 54.5kg looks generous! 2/1 first up record is good. Only concern is the 1200m. Think she is more suited to a 1400m but either way, shouldn’t matter. Will be there at the end.
Finally, Verdasco. Comes into this race 4kg better off than Second Effort who beat him b 0.2l. Has Glen Boss on board and you can expect him to come late.
Confidence 65%
Flemington Race 6
Maythehorsebemagic was brilliant firs tup beating Almodovar. Expecting them to go much more forward today on Almodovar and try and get a fast tempo going. Almodovar will handle the weight more than maythehorsebewithyou.
Ignore last start Almodovar simply didn’t enjoy the slow track and did a few things wrong giving Dame Claire a chance. Will run much better on a dead track.
Streaky Fella is the most interesting runner here. Meets Almodovar 2.5kg better off 0.8L loss on Heavy. Was then1.5L behind Dance With Her last up with a huge run (blocked). Very interesting!
Kirribilli Gold can’t be dismissed here. Will get the distance and has been racing well. Would prefer more than a dead track but should still go well.
Confidence 65%
Flemington Race 7
Adamantium’s first start was poor. We are willing to forgive this horse that just oozes quality. He should be winning this and is a big price. He didn’t handle the weight and down 4.5kg will help. Expect a run closer to the speed this week.
Bereft is well weighted in this race down 4.5kg on last start 2L 6th (blocked for run). Will go well.
Ignore Free Returns last start. Think the 57kg will be too much for it here but great barrier to start with will get run of the race.
Ditto Tiakinui, Weight is the big issue. Back to 1400 and trying to lead could work but highly doubt it.
Finally, Utah Saints ran on well once again last start. They finally have him weighted out of this you have to say. His record at Flemington is ok but not great with 1 win 3 places from 5. Think others improve over him due to weights.
Confidence 80%
Flemington Race 8
We have been very keen all week on Zaamore and he gets his start. Won last start by 4.5L at Bendigo. This is a huge step up in ratings but that was a 15 horse race. Down 4kg and the times were big. Will go VERY well here.
One not to discount here is Doosra Diamond. Not well known for this distance but has won over it before. Probably won’t run well but at the price, worth an inclusion in the quaddie for mine.
Laspiel ran very well beaten by Magnifique Soliel like every other horse that comes up against it. 3L isn’t a bad loss to that horse. Looks suited here but worry is 0/0 from 4 at Flemington.
Gail ran very well here last start and has 2/2 from 5 at Flemington. Suited by track so watch for bold run.
Finally, Eraset with Mallyon on board. He will be there at the finish for sure. It’s a question of how close. 10 starts and 0 wins and 5 placing at Flemington, with the 58kg after claim, I give the win to Zaamore over him.
Confidence 85%
Scone Race 4
Diamond Earth is the value of this race. Back to a trip that suits over 1100 and from barrier 1, expect the horse to push forward, especially if there is a front runner bias at scone early. Ignore run two back, up 0.5kg from a 5th in much better grade. Has the class to win.
Sherocksmyworld is quite a handy horse. Will run well.
Get the feeling Gold Bender may find a few of these too classy.
Rebel Dancer would have to reproduce an effort equal to first up run to have a chance.
Finally, Write Cheek ran well last start before a long spell. Could come back and find best.
Confidence 70%
Scone Race 6
Upon This Rock ran very well last start in equal class but seemed to find the 1600 just too far when leading. Back to 1400 and down 2.5kg, looks suited to give this race a good go.
Miss Marx is an interesting runner. has some solid times to it’s name and got interference on the turn big time last start on a course with a short straight. From Barrier 3 should get a better run today. Down 2kg also on the fav.
Forfeiture is a consistent mare who keeps on producing good runs. Ended 4th 1.8L behind last start from near dead last run. Wasn’t suited by the short straight. Could bolt in…
Potions was given a brilliant ride last start to finish 0.5L off the win. Down 2kg, suited by the weights. Only issue will be finding a way through the pack.
Looking at the record of Never Doubt Me, won 4 of last 5, down to 54kg and has been running some pretty good times overall. Won 4 from 6 at distance and 2 from 3 at class. Won 10 from 20 and placed 5 others. All of the stats check out, you can’t avoid this filly, may not be classy enough but everything suggests she is coming to this metro meet.
Shannara is a short price in this race for good reasons having won 4 placed 3 from 10 at distance and won twice in class. She has been running consistant races and is suited by the draw. Only issue is an extra 1.5kg on her back from last time out.
More Strawberries was brave last start with a good run. Barrier 2 may not work for her, she surely wants more room but can find a way to win from there. She is weighted harshly here against others she beat last up.
Finally, Lady Lynette. She has an ok first up record but most importantly has won many a time in this class. The main issue is her weight and the step down in distance plus barrier 16.
Confidence 65%
Scone Race 7
We have this race down to 4 horses.
Let’s start with Upbeat. 1 win 2 places from 6 in this class, ignore the previous start and base on the previous three runs where he won twice and 0.5L loss. Barrier 7 will suit and expect they will run him forward and take a sit.
Fedde is a very interesting runner. A good 1.3L loss two back to alcohol at MV and then 0.8L behind Green Beret who well fancied that day. Both runs the horse was unlucky blocked for run at MV and got interference twice at Canterbury… this is a stronger race but on times has a good shot.
Pampelonne lines up for his 6th start having won his last two races and never being more than 0.4L behind a winner. The only worry is the 1400m as he lost his last attempt at 1350. Does look to have trained on into those first two wins a fair bit though.
Colorado Claire was massive winning last starts 3Y-GP-2 race. Went forward early and slotted in for a 1 back rail run the whole trip, got out and toughed it out. From barrier 10, i’m just not sure she will get the same run here. She is very well weighted against the rest of the field off just 54.5kg but the barrier is the main concern.
This race should be run at a modest tempo with Mick’s Mantle and Pampelonne making the pace with the Speed Map works out. If front runners have been running well previous to this race, Pampelonne will be hard to chase down. I think all the right horses will be positioned well up front and it will be a sprint to the finish.
Confidence 70%
Scone Race 8
Mighty Obvious is a mighty price here. He has been running well this prep with two wins and two places within 0.4L from last 5 starts. Last start ran very well 3rd vs Leviosa and is down 2.5kg from that run. Get the feeling the rider didn’t push the pace hard enough out the front unlike the previous run. Could be off and gone at the turn and lose them!
Sutton Queen can’t be ignored either if you give Mighty Obvious a chance. Finished 0.2L infront of him for 2nd vs Leviosa. Sutton is down 2kg and has won 2 of last 5 runs with other 3 being within 1.3L (two seconds). Enjoy’s this distance and barrier suits for an easy run.
The old fella MotSpur is 9 years old but still racing well. He has a massive 4/5 from 11 first up record. He is WELL treated here off just 54kg and should come into the race well.
Stratana is a good horse. Down 6.5kg from last start (same race as Mighty obvious and sutton and gains 4kg on both of them (finished 4th 0.8L behind). He is 3 wins 2 places from 6 at the distance and will run up front with Mighty Obvious. He does seem very short.
Zaratone is the most interesting runner in the race. He will push forward with Mighty Obvious for the lead. Ignore last two starts (in harder class and at a distance that doesn’t suit). Zaratone has won 14 of 36 at this distance and 2 wins from 9 at class. Was SUPER impressive winning two back and if replicates that form just simply wins here.
Finally, Welkom Gold has been going great guns recently. Harshly weighted up 1kg here. Not sure what they will do with him but feeling is take a sit and try take it late. Has a shot.
Confidence 70%
Doomben Race 2
It would take a brave man to pot Sizzling here. He was very strong winning by 4.3L on the heavy ground. Has the ability and everything in his favour to win again today.
Noogoora Burr will sit a little closer tot he front and if reproduces what it dished up at Doomben last start, may be there at the end.
Dance on Stars didn’t seem to like the ground last start. Forgive the distance, will be closer than that. Not saying he will win, but he will test sizzling.
Confidence 90%
Doomben Race 5
Ignore Miss Artistic last start on Heavy. Not suited by ground. Well weighted, correct jockey on board and conditions to suit. Will run VERy well.
The other horse we really like here is Angel of Mercy. Winning form is good form and has been impressive last two starts. Has won in this class. Barrier 19 the only concern.
Confidence 80%
Doomben Race 7
Manighar is a super star. Forgive last start ride. Nolen is back onboard now and knows how to ride this bloke. barrier 1 is a slight concern but hope they push him up and don’t get trapped in again. Should just simply win. Suited big time.
Shez Sinsational was brilliant last start winning for us at $6.50. This is a harder race. Shez and Lights of Heaven look the main dangers.
Confidence 90%
Doomben Race 8
This race is super hard. Tiger Tees was lucky to beat home Pinwheel and Neeson last start but a win is a win and he is running super well. You just can’t discount him here. 7 wins 3 places (all 2nds).
Free Wheeling was EXPLOSIVE winning last start. Somehow is down 4.5kg from that run in equal class. If repeats that form, wins this.
Smokin’ Joey. Love this bloke, he is so strong and just keeps winning for us. Up 4kg from last start win which is unfair. That is a 9.5kg turn around on Free Wheeling (not same races) if you look at it this race. He will run a huge race and never discount him but feeling is the weight might get to him.
Confidence 95%
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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