Welcome to the Racing write up for Saturday 8 September 2012. Last week at Caulfield was a good start to the Spring and the fields at Flemington today are simply stunning. We are in for a great day! As always, this is only a guide and you should combine your own form with our thoughts if you are placing a wager. Confidence factors are very important in our write ups and most of all remember that if we put down two horses in a race to have a bet on, that means we are on both. We have gone 11 out of 12 in the last 4 weeks on our Lays and our best bets/value are going strongly. You can view last week’s results including a review of each race here. Good luck and happy Punting!
Warwick Farm Best Bet
Race 1 Strawberry Boy
Great ride, great run. As expected (and with the early $1.70 price) you got value. Won easy.
Flemington Best Bet
Race 4 Lady Melksham
Three ride run, strong head wind, ran on strongly and is a forgive for the run.
Morphetville Best Bet
Race 6 Princess Diablo
Ran well and looked the winner 100m out but had to do a lot of work early and died in final 50m for 3rd.
Doomben Best Bet
Race 4 Solzhenitsyn
Horrible ride on the horse. On the turn you thought you had done your money but wow the horse was impressible. Go watch the ride if you didn’t see it.
Best Value
Flemington Race 3 Playwright
B A N G! Hope you took the early $61/$23 odds put up and tweeted about early on Thursday by us. A nice ride and ran 3rd.
Flemington Race 6 Dance With Her
Can’t say anything bad about the run. Prefers a fast pace and was made to do the running with a strong head wind on course. Still ran into 5th in a quality race. Dunn didn’t push as hard as you would have wanted until the 400m mark (this horse goes strongly over 600-800m final sprint). Mawingo who DWH beat home last start finish close to last and jumped $5 so the value was right in the form line regards.
Best Lays
1. Flemington Race 8 Buxted
Outside top 4
2. Flemington Race 3 – Mister Milton
Outside top 4
3. Warwick Farm Race 2 – Thubiaan
Ran on very well for 2nd. As expected one would beat it but certainly ran better than we had it down for.
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters Paradise – http://www.puntersparadise.com.au/form-guide/
Watch previous runs here – http://bigpondvideo.com/Horse_Racing
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means a speculation pick.
Flemington Race 1
This is a step up in class and a different state for Dinkum Diamond. Times are fairly average and will struggle.
Affable put in some solid runs in her second prep with an impressive win in a slowish 1600m run. Can go well at this distance and will run well.
Molto Bene down in class on second prep. Times aren’t impressive but last win was quite impressive from the back. Williams wil give a good ride.
Armed for Action was solid firs tup and a 3rd behind Samaready and 4th behind Snitzerland is good form lines.
Sabie put down some impressive runs lastl prep and will have trained on well to be in with a big chance here.
Agueda was a very solid 2nd behind Elite Elle last start but Elite Elle has come out after that run and misfired. AS solid form and is due for a win.
Don’t discount Proper Madam. Ignore last start and could produce a solid run.
Dazzler super impressive winning last prep and should have trained on strongly.
Demasheen started well this prep and will run well but is a little short for my liking.
Finally, good first up win by Omniscient down 2kg on that run. Times are solid and barrier 1 does suit. A very sneaky chance.
Confidence 70%
Omniscient put in a quality run. Agueda found one too good for it once again as expected but it was Members Joy who surprised to win the race. Backed it the first four runs but on form couldn’t be backed here. Liked the straight track and went bang. One to follow. Sabie suffered interference by Dinkum Diamond with the rider suspended so forgive run.
Flemington Race 2
Jimando won solidly first up but this is a huge step up in class and off 58.5kg will be a little too hard.
General Rippa major disappointment after first up run last prep.
Timely Truce outclassed.
Forget seems to be wanting a surface a little more wet.
Dominant’s two runs have been solid. Will be there at the end for sure.
Awesome Bro from barrier 14 is a little iffy especially if he misses the start again. Happy to be on others.
Ignore first up run of Liberty Rock. Will come into this with a lot more to give. Suited to Flemington.
Free of Doubt can’t be ignored. Big run at MV two back.
If Collect finds best, could win this. Too many excuses on previous runs to think it will.
Solid last run by General Peekay but happy to look elsewhere today.
Adjuster was the run of the race last start at MV. Will go close here with more room to let down.
Confidence 70%
Certainly got Jimando wrong. Was a very solid win at a big price. Awesome Bro fought on strongly also. Liberty Rock is now no longer backable and Adjuster didn’t produce as much as expected.
Flemington Race 3
Simply can’t give Illo any more chances.
Playwright is MASSIVE overs. 2nd up last prep at course and distance ran a huge race for a 2nd in a field of 16 similar to this. Ended prep last start with two wins at this course and a 0.2L 2nd.
Launay runs well at Flemington and was solid last start beaten by Freeturn. Weighted a little harshly against others in this race.
Testacana is a horse we like but cost us a lot last prep just not getting there in many races. Runs strongly but 1600m is more of a distance that ruins than 1400m. Happy to look elsewhere after a ok but not great firs tup run.
The Eighth Maker’s first two runs this prep were solid. 1.8L behind Happy Trails and then 3L behind Southern Speed. Could run well.
Anudjawun looking for a longer distance race. Is weighted well.
Fawkner is a big unknown here. Has run very solid time sbefore but feeling is wants over the 1400m mark and isn’t up to this grade.
Never write off Module. 4 wins 1 place from 7 at distance and 2 wins 3 places at track. 54kg is nice and could run a sneaky race.
Mister Milton was flattered by last start run. Down 4.5kg is fair for this grade. Hasn’t gotten within 3.5L in the last five starts. Really don’t want to be on it here.
Confidence 70%
Super run from Playwright for 3rd. The Eighth Maker’s run was very disappointing and the form isn’t holding up from that race. Fawkner was super impressive and has trained on very well. Testacana was the eye catcher on the shorter distance and should run even better over longer. The same for Playwright regarding distance. Launay can be forgiven due to weight and wind.
Flemington Race 4
Yosei takes a while to get into preps but could run a very solid race here today from barrier 5.
Miss Artistic is hard to place. Wants longer so happy to ignore here.
Hi Belle is 0 wins 0 places from 3 at track. Only goes well on Good tracks and we expect at Dead at best. Times are nice but happy to be with others.
Lady Melksham is the class runner of the race. Still weighted nicely after a massive win last start. Will run a very solid race.
Kneeling was very good first up with some blistering sectionals. Will be suited by a less leader biased track this start and extra 200m and be there at the end.
Booklet on form has a good shot but happy to look elsewhere.
Zurella is one to watch. Can run well from 1400 up to 2400m including a second behind Miss Artistic in a 3GP1.
Biancon Rose put in a solid run last start but up in weight not for me.
Total Attraction can be forgiven for last start first run on a Heavy track. Weighted nicely and will run well.
Bonaria outclassed.
Twilighting was outclassed last start and found out. Should find this too hard again.
Confidence 80%
Simply ignore that run of Kneeling. For some reason the jockey took kneeling forward which just doesn’t suit the horse. Take it to the back and it has a very good chance of winning. Hi Belle was the run of the race and the one to follow out of the race. Zurella will go super next up over a longer distance also. Lady Melksham a forgive run. Would prefer a wetter track and as above, info.
Flemington Race 5
Rusambos times are not up to it to win this race IMO. Happy to be against.
Psychic Mick was huge last start. Could run on very well again here today.
Cambiaso would need to have trained on and even more to win this.
Stralia times look a little too slow for this but is weighted well.
Some big expectations for Pronto Pronto this prep. Could run well.
Maury if you forgive first up run could go well here.
Snitzerland is the one you want to be with here. Will simply be putting in a massive run here.
Confidence 95%
Quaddie Selections: 9,2
Snitzerland very lucky to win with what I feel was a horrible ride. Got very lucky but hopefully you got the early $1.75 and not the $1.50. Stralia the run of the race and one to follow.
Flemington Race 6
Simply too short a distance for Efficient. This looks like a prep run that is all.
Manighar is a massive chance here. Put in a HUGE last prep and as long as gets a good position will run on strongly again.
Mourayan seems to want longer than this.
Midas Touch… people keep saying he might go well this prep. Our say is No.
December Draw. Welcome back! $3.30 favourite failed injured in the Caulfield Cup last year. A very exciting horse and can’t wait to see him first up here. 4 starts 4 wins at course! Will go close.
Mawingo had a nice previous prep. This is a hard race over a distance that doesn’t 100% suit the horse. Will go strong but happy to be on another.
Second Effort ran on strongly last week at Caulfield. Very short back to back run but from barrier 4 will be postioned well. This race is a step up than last week. Not wet enough to win but will run close to the front.
Moudre hasn’t raced for more than a year and a half so not sure what we can make of that. Boss on board and has some solid form lines with 3 wins 1 place from 5 at dsitance and 3 from 5 wins at course. Could go storngly but happy to wait and watch.
Shenzhou Steeds suited to longer distances.
Zabeelionaire should run on strongly from the back. Setting for bigger things.
Southern Speed could run a very good race here. I wasn’t super impressed with the runs in Adelaide but is back to a distance that should suit even more. Will run on but would rather be on Manighar at the price.
Our last horse is a huge favourite of ours in Dance with Her. Runs well over this distance with 4 wins 4 places. Had a huge last prep and runs well on anything apart from a good track. Mapped in to either lead this one out of take a sit and get the run of the race. First up last start in Golden Mile on a dead track tooka sit and won well. If produces that run can win this.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie Selections: 2,5,6,11,12
Geez Manighar was stiff. Southern Speed got in a lucky bob is simply all we can say. Dance With Her strong run. Second Effort a good run also, get it wetter and runs much closer. December Draw ok first up.
Flemington Race 7
Hugely open race.
Starting with Mosheen. Back after a throat Op is way overs. Likes the track and likes the distance. Expect her to run on very strongly here and be very hard to beat.
Title was nice 2nd up against Moment of Change but this is a little harder.
We’re Gonna Rock is flattered by that run behind Black Caviar. Never trust BC form. Will run well but this also looks out of his league.
Ahdashim has some decent form lines from last year but hasn’t raced for nearly a year. THis is a strong first up prep field.
Smokin’ Joey is a horse with massive ability. Ran some huge races getting us the money many times last start. Weighted well here and when you count the 1:21.7 1400m and other runs, you know he can run very fast races which may be on here. Barrier 13 is an issue as will have to get a split through the field but is good enough.
Shanghai Warrior was solid first up. This is also a better race than the last and will have to improve. Personally happy to not be on him at the price.
Speediness can run strong races at any distance. Weighted well today and will be hard to hold out to the line.
Freereturn will be found out today in this class. Will go strongly but don’t expect a winning run.
Anabandana ran on well on a leader bias track at MV last start. 54kg is nicely suited by just can’t back this horse until it wins or goes down in class.
Pago Rock has a massive 4 win 1 place record at distance but 2 places from 2 runs at distance with two horses beating it by 0.1l and 0.2l who are both in this race. Weighted well and will have a massive run to give. Should lead this up on speed maps. The best part is 4 first up wins from 4 starts.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Selections: 1,3,6,8,9,13
Horrible race! We got it completely wrong with We’re Gonna Rock. Smokin’ Joey ran well, Pago Rock didn’t position where we expected and Mosheen got stuck in traffic but didn’t run as well as expected. Veewap the run of the race late.
Flemington Race 8
This is the race Shewan has been waiting for. Ran on strongly last start over the 1500m and should run a strong race.
Norsqui could run a solid race on form but didn’t produce enough first up.
Single Minded is overs in this race when you consider two of his last five starts have bene wins in Group 2 races. Keep an eye on this one. Include in Quaddie.
Budai up to the 200m on the Heavy last start was a very strong run. Down 2.5kg here.. could produce another strong run.
Excluded was strong first up but come on! Up 1kg on that run and up to 2000m. This is major unders.
Exceptionally won at course and a longer distance very well last start. Not sure how will go on a less wet course but should go strong.
Rowland is up 3kg from winning last start. Now, I don’t think he is the best horse in this race but coming off a win, $51 fixed is an insult! Quaddie inclusion.
Shinny Buttons has been running strongly recently. This is a step up but good go strong.
Confidence 65%
Quaddie Selections: 1,3,4,6,12,16
Excluded started a little wider than we expected and won like a $1.50 favourite. Exceptionally the run of the race for us and one to follow.
Warwick Farm Race 1
Mon Soleil won well last start but the form lines haven’t worked out. Up 4.5kg, won’t be winning this.
Strawberry Boy was super impressive first up in a VERY fast time. Up 5kg but will simply win this race.
Jacquinot Bay could runa solid race after some very nice run times including a massively fast run over 1600m.
Confidence 90%
Jacquinot Bay one to back next start. Very unlucky getting bumped wide on the turn. Strawberry Boy strong.
Warwick Farm Race 2
Sables has been putting in some massive runs the last four runs and is showing that she wants the longer distances. Should be very hard to beat here today.
Thubiaan didn’t handle the class and step up in distance last start. Up 1.5kg and don’t think can do much here.
You Think So has been putting in some very solid runs in Melbourne and could find best here.
Finally, Disco can’t be discounted either coming from the country to city on a very solid weight.
Confidence 80%
Gai Waterhouse got us in this race. O’Reilly’s Prize got a very easy run out front and just bolted in. Sables a valid 4th but it was run to suit the front runner.
Warwick Farm Race 3
Merlin Mustang is a horse with massive form lines coming into this race. This isn’t the best distance for the horse but will run a massive race. Don’t discount!
Velrosso won well first up in a slowish time and would need to improve to win this.
Solid run two back by O’Crikey over the 1600m. Could find best but weighted badly.
Rumour and Scandal has come back this prep in super form. Up to 1300m will suit and weighted to win.
Finally, Upshot will run well but still a query on it’s quality.
Confidence 70%
Rumour and Scandal ran a solid race for 2nd but Upshot got the better run and got in over the final 100m. Merlin Mustang didn’t run well.
Warwick Farm Race 4
Magic Shaft has some very solid form lines including a 0.2L second in a 2Y-GP1 in New Zealand. Will run very well.
Limes not up to this class wise.
Tatra ran a very solid race behind Albrect last start.
Toydini is a super interesting runner. Has some strong form lines and once again will run a strong race.
Honorious outclassed here.
Sumarand is a little to short for by liking here. Happy to be against.
Confidence 70%
Tatra was the form line out of the Albrect race that ended up winning. Not much to take out of the race.
Warwick Farm Race 5
A strong first up run by Danleigh surprised most of us. Will run on strongly today over the extra 200m.
Ginga Dude has some very big runs under his hat from last prep. If produces similar, will be hard to beat here over 1600m from the barrier 3.
Centennial Park is a super horse that we love but doesn’t have the turn of foot to find the extra 2L to win this. Will have a gun run from barrier 1 but happy to be on others.
Lamasery first up was strong. Will run a very good race.
Somepin Anypin may take a while to reproduce the super time runs of two preps ago. Needs to produce more than last start.
Polish Night shouldn’t be written off. Ran a massive 2nd in GP1 last prep and ran on strongly first up.
The class in this race is certainly Lights of Heaven. For some reason went far back last start but should sit closer to the front this run.
Seceret Admirer almost got it last start. Should be more suited by the 1600m.
Confidence 60%
Quaddie Selections: 1,2,4,8,9
Had a nice feeling on Danleigh in this race but ignored it to our peril. Did have it in the quaddie. Lights of Heaven very poor run, looked like something went wrong. Ginga Dude very poor first up. Not sure what to make of the run, simply have to forgive.
Warwick Farm Race 6
Doubtfilly can be forgiven for the first up run. Will run on strongly here today.
Dear Demi ran on strongly behind Nechita. Could find best.
Jade Marauder was blocked for runs twice last start but honestly, couldn’t have seen her winning.
Meidung was the run of the race of those behind Nechita. Will produce a big run.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie Selections: 1,5 (If you want to go wider include 2,4)
Dear Demi did find best here. Was a very solid run and will win more races this prep and beat Meidung in a strong finish. Doubtfilly no longer backable.
Warwick Farm Race 7
Atomic Force ran stromgly first up but the times were fairly slow. Expect him to run well here but Rain Affair should set a too strong a pace.
Rain Affair is a super horse and puts in some super timed races. Will run strongly and expect to go well.
Torio’s Quest could run a sneaky race.
Tiger Tees is one to watch. Won a huge race in Doomben last prep and won first up beating Pinwheel. Could test these.
Finally, Satin Shoes first up can run solid times. Not the best weighted here.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie Selections: 1,2,5,8
Ignored our own judgement in the write up and went with Rain Affair. Didn’t even place and Tiger Tees got the chocolates. At least had it in the Quaddie as it was more open than the prices. Have to say we did say don’t touch Rain Affair on the day due to the crazy short price.
Warwick Farm Race 8
Rangirangdoo put in two very solid runs last start. Did take a while to get going but could produce a massive run at big odds.
Kontiki Park was super first up and could find another solid run in itself. Don’t discount. Keep in your quaddie.
Steps in Time didn’t produce much at all first up. No excuses. Can’t have today.
Wild and Proud is a classy horse. Off 54.5kg, suited so well here it’s not funny. Prefers a wet track but stil goes well on anything. Waterhouse will have him ready to rock!
Moment of Change won easy firs tup. Will run on here and be the one to beat off 54kg.
Said Com hasn’t been massively convincing recently and at the price happy to be against. The down 2.5kg does help.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie Selections: 4,6,8,9
Super poor run from Wild & Proud. Tagus was a massive run and when you look at the form, you want to hit yourself and say ‘how did i miss it?’. Kontiki Park the run of the race. Moment of Change solid for 3rd.
Doomben Race 2
The value of the race is Punch On. Ran on well firs tup last start and will do the same here. Expect a huge run. Will get a chance and be there at the end.
The main chance in the race is Liesele.
Confidence 80%
Liesele won very well. Punch On didn’t go great.
Doomben Race 3
Danagaze is back down to a more appropriate class and at the right distance. Weighted nicely and could produce a strong run.
Confidence 65%
Bang. Ran on very well off a super ride. $13-1 return
Doomben Race 4
Solzhenitsyn is a massively good horse. Will simply just win this race.
Confidence 85%
As above, won.
Doomben Race 8
Double Image is back down to a very winable race. Weighted well and will simply lead this up from start to finish.
Confidence 65%
Can’t back next start off that run unless hugely down in grade and weighted better.
Morphetville Race 6
Princess Diablo is a horse with strong form lines in Victoria. This is a big step down in class off a very good weight. Will run on well.
Confidence 75%
As above
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
All of our information is provided free. If you want to show your support, if you are wanting to join a new bookmaker, please use our banners. Thanks.
Gamble Responsibly!
