Welcome to The Profits form guide for Caulfied on 21 April 2014. Unfortunately today the club hasn’t put up the prize money to get a decent field of races, so I can’t exactly cover every runner honestly. The form lines are fairly average at best today but based on pure value and form, I have put up horses I believe get us ahead in the long run. As always, I hope your form matches up with mine. Good luck and happy punting!
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Caulfield Race 5
An open race.
I like a resumer here who I believe went to the next level last prep. Yes, she didn’t even place, but she ran some very solid races behind much better than those she meets today. Unique Storm has Beriman on today with the 2kg claim taking her down to 59kg. From the 2 barrier, she can be ridden to lead, with a sit or even a little further back. Her best in the past has been seen from out the front and I can see that happening today if it gets handed up to her.
Comments: Looks over the odds resuming today and i’m happy to have a go E/W.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Unique Storm E/W
Caulfield Race 6
Not the most classy race you will ever see but a couple certainly stick out.
The Thief has been well found in the market, but i’m not sure he will measure up today. The Darwin form has certainly been found out with Corstons Beau and Host Of The Party not showing a great deal since arriving down here. At the weights, I have to take him on.
Songspur beat Sino Eagle three runs back but has shown nothing since and nothing before that either… not sure what to make of that inconsistency and suspect his win three back in a very slow time was simply due to the bias on the day.
This really does leave me with just two key hopes.
Gallant Harmony comes back from a good 2nd at Morphetville and is up in class and finds himself up to 58kg from 54.5kg. His previous win was solid and barrier 1 today, can go forward or take a sit. A win over Precious Gem is decent form lines also. The weight may just get him in today is the only issue?
Akavoroun is the stand out. A good slow win in his maiden at the pool, he then went onto Caulfield to score a 2 length win in 3YO class with decent prize money over 1400m and was even blocked for a run. Has had almost a year off is the only concern outside of the fairly average barrier.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Back Akavoroun to win.
Caulfield Race 7
Another race with form lines that are a bit hard to match up. I’m a forgiving man, and there is one first up today here I can look the other way for cheating on us in the past!
Looking first at the threats in the race. Play Master has been winning in the country moving through the BM grades. Much harder race today and up to 60kg, I think he finds a few too good.
Clinton Affair resumes today after an average last prep, but he does run well first up and has placed in 3YO class two preps back, should go ok today.
Stradale resumes today over 1200m. Never won at distance and shown his best over 1600m. Did beat some decent horses over 1600m as well, but up in class, weight and not his best distance, I also to take on at the price.
Grand Orator got a win last start in much weaker company. Down 1kg after claims, barrier does suit but has to improve to win here on previous runs for mine.
Prince Stratum just hasn’t resumed as the same horse for me. Probably forgive the run last start due to slow, but that is when his best run and win was, so i can’t.
Vicario is the one I like here today. She won at course and distance in 3YOF class two preps back beating Octavia and the previous run ran 0.4L behind She Can Skate at MV in similar grade. Last prep she just wasn’t the same horse, but resuming today, way back in class, with 58kg, she looks well in at the weights. She has won 2 and placed 1 from 4 first up run… remember she resumed last prep in a Listed race, this is a BM-70. The price is way over the correct odds.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: 3 units to place 1 unit to win Vicario
Caulfield Race 8
Three horses catch my eye here on form.
Godspiel can be ignored for last start when in much harder class. Back to this class today she comes into this well. A bit of a non-winner, she always hits the line hard and will be finishing strong.
General Groove continues to improve throughout his prep. Questionable whether the 2000m is what he wants, but his last start run at Sandown was solid enough. Barrier a massive concern.
The one I really like though is St Jean. Ran 4.3L 4/4 to Ernest Hemingway in Ireland in a Group 3 over 2410m. None of these horses here today would get within 4.3L of Ernest Hemingway over that distance. First up run was very solid over an unsuitable 1400m and then recorded a very good win off top weight in harder company last start at the bool. Similar weight today (slightly down), St Jean looks the one to beat and is priced over the true form odds.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Back St Jean to win.
Caulfield Race 9
Not many stand out as key chances today apart from Baluch. It looks as if they have just written the horse off after failing on Heavy first up. The horse had 0 wet track form an still raced ‘ok’. The horse is a maiden only winner, but last prep ran Reckless Assassin, a horse I rate highly, to 2.5L and then 0.4L. She also ran Catkins to 3.8L in a M-GP3 class race which none of these would get within that distance. Will be going back in the run from barrier, as long as horses are running on all day, she looks a big chance at odds.
Confidence 65%
Strategy: Baluck E/W
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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