Welcome to The Profits racing form for Saturday at Caulfield. There can only be improvement from last week after nothing went our way apart from the Best South Australian bet which made the records look slightly better. Lucky for us, Mr O’Ceirin took the Grafton Cup on Thursday backing up the 90% confidence last start when the horse choked on the bit… and we stole $7s (backed hard late into $6s). The card today certainly looks a tricky one. I urge you to check your speedmaps throughout the day if a bias appears. If there is a huge leader bias early then Serene Star is a massive lay for example and so on. I hope you form matches up with mine. Good luck and happy punting!
Best Bet
Caulfield Race 2 Octavia
Next Best
Caulfield Race 8 Loot ‘N’ Run
Best Value
Caulfield Race 5 Fabriano
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters Paradise – http://www.puntersparadise.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means a speculation pick.
Caulfield Race 1
Regimental Pride: Won first up last prep up in Sydney. Off 59kg looks a little harsh today but this is much easier than previous starts. Needs to have trained on to win today though.
Change of Honour: Solid win two back at Caulfield in a VERY slowly run race. This seems much harder today but has his chances.
Thiamandi: She maps to take a lead but never really measured up in this grade in the past. Has ability but should find a few too good unless there is a massive leaders bias.
Gallant Express: Unraced runner who didn’t place in a trial. No thanks.
Miss Steele: Blocked for run but still got home at Moonee Valley. Tme was ‘ok’ but nothing to scream about.
Monkstone: First up market is your only guide Moody/Nolen combo. No relations to go off.
Word of Mouth: First up no trial to go off. Relations are ‘ok’ but nothing special with maximum prize money of 150k. Market will guide you.
Lord Of the Sky: Ran poorly IMO. Should have won first up and couldn’t find enough. Weighted well but no thanks.
Mount Zero: Three of five runs last start were strong enough to win this today. Had a nice spell for a few months and comes back today ready to win. Barrier 1 means she either leads or takes a sit (suspect a sit) and hits the line hard. Probably the one to beat.
Crystal Ruby: Full sister to one of my favourite horses in Crystal Lily (RIP) and half sister to another of mine in Amaethon… plus Crystal Web who won a chunk of money over the past year. The breeding just continues to work out well and off 54kg, you have to give this horse an amazing chance today.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: I’m not convinced that there is a genuine runner lining up today outside of Mount Zero of those with form and she goes up on top from Crystal Ruby who I am willing to risk not seeing run at the price as I am a believer in breeding. Only small amounts.
Caulfield Race 2
Octavia: Painfully close last start at Moonee Valley and off 55kg today looks the one to beat. Will be better for the run and barrier 6 suits.
Love For Ransom: Promosing horse who hasn’t delivered in the past 9 months. Not going well enough to suggest a win today.
Kukla: Can forgive last start run and look to previous runs where 2nd behind Meidung and then winning at Valley… but this is a much harder task… probably wants further?
Nadeem Lass: Big run last start and blocked when getting into straight.. but certainly saved a lot of ground on the run. Won’t get the same run today.
Legcut: Up in class today and doesn’t get the ground the horse wants. Running well but not well enough on this surface.
Summer Gem: Hasn’t shown anything this prep. No thanks.
Valid Contract: Run two back at Flemington proved the horse just isn’t up to this class. Has to find 2 lengths.
Vicario: Most interesting runner of the lot today. Improved heavily last start with huge run at Moonee Valley. Lost a plate which is a big deal. Massive issue is barrier but big chance.
Nella Fantasia: Ran well last start but poorly weighted against others here. Does map well though.
Rubyone: Progressive type. Down 6kg today.. I couldn’t back but couldn’t tell you not to if you had the word up.
Easy To Look At: Not easy to back and not in well here today.
Mark’s Matilda: Maiden only winner. No thanks.
Klishina: Not suited to this class.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Backing Octavia here with a saver on Nadeem Lass. Come out ahead on this play long term every time IMO.
Caulfield Race 3
Serene Star: Love the horse but hasn’t been able to win in last 5 starts. Up to 60kg today and will sit out the back and need to make up a load of ground. Speed map will be the key here.
Queen Delight: Ran well enough the last two starts winning one and placing in the other… better suited to slow and heavy one would suggest? Expected to go forward today and is a chance off weights.
Johannapine: Weighted only average today.. Gives up 1kg to Queen of Delight after two back loss by 0.1L. Hard to see the win from so far back.
Flash of Doubt: Quality runner who was back to best last start. Never not placed on dead previously and goes well here. Weighted to win if gets the right run.
Bel Price: Huge run last start and VERy unlucky to not win when blocked for runs. Barrier 13 only issue today.
Sensational Report: Long time off and average first up record but loves a dead track. Never won from 10 starts at class.
Captivating Lady: Ignore first up run on Heavy where still ran ok and look to previous runs. Needs to improve to compete in this class but win wouldn’t shock.
Counted: Ran well enough last start behind Black N Tough.. and beat home Queen Delight two back. Don’t count her out today at all!
Shiny and New: Ran well enough last start but needs to show much more here.
Two Hills: Not going well enough for this.
Lotus Flower: Not good enough for this.
Nelson’s Victory: Not good enough to compete here.
Slewsay: Weighted well but never placed from 6 starts at class.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: I will be LAYING Serene Star to win this one at the price this evening. Expect a drift. Bel Price and Flash of Doubt appeal on top for mine.
Caulfield Race 4
Ava’s Delight: Given an average ride last start and comes into this mapping better today. On run two back goes on and wins today.
Underestimation: Ran well las ttwo starts but get the feeling needs to find a few lengths that aren’t there.
Space: Big win last start at Flemington but will most likely get stuck the rails and find it hard to get out late. Seemed to need very far to get going last start.
Mendivil: Good start to finish win last start at Cranbourne. Seems to not be up to this class of race.
Spring Cheer: Got too far back two back and then last start got given a better ride up in class and got closer. Maps well enough but needs to come hard late.
Nisos: Big run last start and meets Spring Cheer much better off at weights today. Looks the value of the race.
Angel Suez: Just not sure this filly will measure up in this class of race.. but two back run was ok.
Awesome Goal: Only won a maiden and nothing else.
Use The Lot: Ran well last start but wide barrier hurts.
Bernadi: Good maiden win but has to improve significantly to be in this.
Tunisia Traveller: Not in this on previous runs.
Fuming: Stepping up in class again today. Showed enough to win this at 2YO but has gone backwards since.
It’s Fred: Maps well today to sit near front but find it very hard to consider the horse winning this.
Dubai To Dublin: Couldn’t win maidens.
Optical Illusion: Couldn’t win maidens.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Ava’s Delight looks the one to beat today for mine while Nisos looks big overs.
Caulfield Race 5
Constant Force: Have to forgive last start and look to two back or was that a one off? Seems to be wanting this distance on form.
Montgomery: Didn’t show us enough last start to suggest can win this today off weight.
Ulundi: Ran well enough last start considering no form on slow. Could run well today.
Magic Me: Needs to pull more than a rabbit out of a hat to win this today. Just not classy enough this prep.
Dark Note: Needs several runs to get into a winning position. This isn’t the run.
Palasport: Las two runs very poor. May need a spell? Could go close to winning on three and four back form though.
Done Nothin’ Wrong: Did a little bit wrong last start. Maps very well today and should get a nice ride. Won 3 of last five starts.. but has to improve today.
Midnight Glory: Huge run last start down in the weights. Up 1.5kg today but on previous run can go well.
Rock Princess: Huge run two back and then didn’t run well enough last start. Back down in class but never placed at track or distance and only once in class. Prefers it very wet?
Budai: Really looking for it wet today and just doesn’t get that. Weighted nicely off 51kg but previous runs don’t suggest the win.
Tanah Lot: Not a chance on last three runs you would think.. suspect wants 3000m. Slight place hope.
Border Express: Up in class today where never placed from 5 starts and drawn a poor barrier.
Fabriano: The overs of the race. Off 51kg today, Fabriano is the class runner here. He will certainly need some luck to get the perfect run, but the price is simply overs on form this prep if you just simply ignore the heavy form runs.
Pretty Adamant: Ran well three and four back but last two runs have been poor. Can’t see the win but can place.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie Leg One: 7, 9, 11, 16
Strategy: Backing Fabriano E/W
Caulfield Race 6
Stanzout: 0 wins from 13 attempts at class and 1 win from 26 at track… Goes well first up but surely won’t measure up here.
Zedi Knight: Ran very well last start but up 1.5kg today and up in class, find it hard for the old boy to be winning… but can place!
Skytrain: Seems to be a better horse on the heavy track. Never missed a place though on Dead… last two starts have been solid but has to find a few more lengths.
Second Effort: Big win last start at the Bool on a wet track. Just shouldn’t be wet enough today to be winning but should go close anyway.
Pago Rock: Won two of the last three and goes well at Caulfield. This race looks much harder than last three runs but can’t dismiss him.
Zamorar: Unlucky not to get the chocolates last start and will be better for the run. Can go close today.
Happy Galaxy: Won his last four races including a WFA-G2 beating Skytrain by half a length. The one to beat.
Mrs Onassis: Won her last three runs first up including a Group 1 Oakleigh Plate by a length. Off 56.5kg today looks well suited considering at Caulfield again today and maps so well.
Elite Elle: Slowly away last start which cost her in the end. Might be coming to the end of her prep? Will be speed on and will find it hard to get over.
Confidence 65%
Quaddie Leg Two: 4, 6, 9, 10
Strategy: I’d like to back Mrs Onassis here today, but there are at 6 horses with genuine chances here and there doesn’t seem to be any value unless a drift occurs.
Caulfield Race 7
Hai Lil: Defied the 60kg last start at Flemington after getting blocked and still got there on the line JUST. 60kg again today but may find it hard to carry the weight to victory on this track.
Grand Emperor: Not running well enough for this today.
Mister John: Beaten as $1.20 favourite in Tasmania first up this prep and then came over there and ran on ok at Flemington. Hard to see the progression this prep.
Kings Palace: Good win in lesser grade. Need to find a few more lengths for this.
Haussmann: Ran well enough last start and down in weight today which should help, but may need another run.
Pillar of Creation: Unlucky not to get the win last start with a brave ride. Down 2kg today and the only concern is the barrier. Should get a nice position and be there at the finish.
Winta Chiller: She Can Skate form is strong but Winta just couldn’t get close last start. Got lucky by tempo two back I suspect.
Brave Prince: Ran well enough over in Ascot in similar class but first to runs this prep have been on Heavy. This is the testing material.
Charmed Harmony: Ran very poor first up at Caulfield. Hard to back on that run but has ability.
Laohu: Not going well enough to win this.
Committed: Ran very well last start set up by a strong tempo. Can’t dismiss on that run for sure, but looks unders to me!
Ekibuuka: Form lines look average. Never placed from 5 starts at class. Never won 2nd up.
Vintage Lad: Only form on heavy. No thanks.
Drunken Poet: Interesting first up runner. Should handle 1400m and could sneak home.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 7, 8, 13, 17
Strategy: Backing Pillar of Creation at the Each Way.
Caulfield Race 8
Under The Eiffel: The best horse in the race by a mile. Will have ever chance from the barrier today. Always goes close at track.
Mr Griswold: Last run was too poor to back here today. No thanks.
Lord Pyrus: Not the worst run first up and can improve 2nd up. form suggest does need at least one run. Can place.
Lucky Eighty Eight: Hasn’t won in a long time and form suggests needs further. Never won first up.
Offenders: Ignore last start and look to four previous runs where just kept going close without getting a win. Off 54.5kg today looks every chance and maps well.
Cellarmaster: Poor last three starts considering previous form in Tassy. Hard to see the win today but can place.
Alpha Proxima: Just not going good enough this prep sadly.
Corvidae: Short price today considering couldn’t get close in a R-89.. previous run is why the horse is so short with Riziz winning well last weekend. Weighted off 51kg the other reason. With a load of speed in this race, the 51kg and swooping nature should be suited.
Luckyi’mbarefoot: Off the heavy is a big concern. Not sure he will measure up today in class.
Clang and Bang: All clang, no bang rcently. Ignore firs tup run on Heavy and look to previous runs. Really does need 2000m.
Reparations: Would appreciate it a little more wet today off previous runs. Not the worst here.
Cornwall Park: Didn’t measure up last start in this class but you could forgive on previous runs.
Loot ‘N’ Run: Two good runs on heavy recently but seems better on Good or Dead IMO. Don’t dsimiss.. big odds today.
Sophrosyne: Hard to see the win even though previous runs were sound.
Red Typhoon: Not going well enough for this.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 5, 8, 13
Strategy: Loot ‘N’ Run can get the lead today and take the win while Offenders is weighted to put in a huge effort also. Have it down to four horse and expect to profit on backing these two in long term.
Doomben Race 7
Green Birdie has been threatning to win something while over here but just hasn’t produced. I really liked the last start run only 2.8L off a win when losing a plate. I’m expecting the speed to be on here today giving him a good chance to come very late. This is his biggest chance yet down in ‘class’ so to speak.
Confidence 60%
Strategy: Small win and palce bets
Morphetville Race 3
A fairly open race on paper but Dubawi Gold is the class runner of the race. Goes well 2nd up and firs tup wasn’t bad at all.
Finishing Card looks the main danger.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Back Dubawi Gold and saver Finishing Card.
Morphetville Race 7
A race of three for mine unless something finds a few extra lengths today.
Belfast Boy has been running well without placing this prep. Up 3.5kg today and rates well. Only won 1 from 10 at track though is a massive issue – prefers a straight?
Lionhearted Girl has gone close the last two starts and with 54kg today will be heading to the front where there doesn’t seem to be much pace. Looks a great chance today.
Rebel Truce is the class runner of this race and there will be no excuses about getting blocked today you would expect.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Happy to back Rebel Truce and Lionhearted Girl today.
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
All of our information is provided free. If you want to show your support, if you are wanting to join a new bookmaker, please use our banners. Thanks.
Gamble Responsibly!
