Welcome to The Profits form for Flemington and Randwick on Saturday 5 October 2013. Well we have four Group 1s around the states today and that means the bookies are giving us double fixed odds and many different promotions that should prove to give us value for such tough cards. There are so many questions set to be answered for many future markets, mainly the plates and cups. As always, I hope my form matches up with yours! Good luck and happy punting!
Flemington
Best Bet
Race 7 Politeness
Next Best
Race 2 Rockford
Best Value
Race 8 Puissance De Lune at $9.60 with Ladbrokes on Double Fixed Odds ($50 max)
Lay of the Day
Race 6 Sea Moon
Best Place Bet
Race 10 Catkins
Rosehill
Best Bet
Race 4 Guelph at Double Fixed odds with Betstar ($50 max available between 12-1pm)
Next Best
Race 5 Va Pensiero to place
Best Value
Race 9 Ironstein at Double Fixed odds with Betstar ($50 max available between 1-2pm)
Lay of the Day
Race 4 Arabian Gold
Best Place Bet
Race 7 Streama
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means a speculation pick.
Flemington Race 1
Comments: Every runner is having their first run ever. Many have trialled but there is no way you could have a bet here with confidence without inside knowledge. I always opt to stay out of these races and there are better sources for you to get information on this race from.
Confidence 0%
Strategy: Keep your eye out for future prospects. Will make money from watching this race replay.
Flemington Race 2
Rockford: Blocked for runs two back behind Long John at Flemington and as form suggested won last start at Caulfield. Up 2.5kg today but that is fair. Oliver off, Prebble on is a worry. Maps to go forward and looks suited back on a track with a longer straight.
Polanski: Two run sthis prep fairly disappointing. Not enough imporvement here.
Lannister: Ran on well last start but couldn’t stay to hold out Rockford. Doesn’t look like he will here either.
Epic Saga: Ran on very well last two starts but seems to find a way to get beaten. Up 2kg today and barrier 4. In with a chance with a dream run hopefully.
Orion: May position further forward today that could suit. Last start became unbalanced yet still finished strongly behind Divine Calling who then went out and won again. Down 0.5kg. Form looks strong. Breeding suggests will eat up this distance.
Tupac Amaru: Ran well enough behind Surging Wave two back and then won a maiden fairly well. Hard to see here though.
Surging Wave: Showed impressive improvement last start at Caulfield. Just not sure he can beat ALL of these home.
Pinstripe Lane: Maiden win back in distance isn’t good form lines.
De Little Engine: Maiden win over Razzle doesn’t stack up well.
Famechon: Ran on well considering missed the start. May still be going back in field anyway. Hard to judge here.
Exciteable Package: Couldn’t win a maiden.
Quest for Peace: Ran well enough behind Divine Calling last time out but some others here look better and she is giving up weight.
Cafe Scientific: Won an average maiden. Hard to see progression.
Cuban Gold: Not the worst on last start run but shouldn’t be winning this.
Comments: Rockford’s run last start here was impressive and hard to ignore while Orion looks to be peaking.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Rockford to win and smaller on Orion.
Flemington Race 3
Churchill Dancer: Not the worst run last start but form doesn’t stack up well here at weights.
Champollion: Not going well enough this prep to suggest can win this. Need big improvement.
Paximadia: Finished prep very well up in QLD. Weighted very well here considering class of race. Could break these.
I Am Titanium: Ridden back last start at MV saw massive improvement. Could go well today off last start.
Le Mans: Ran on very well last start behind Rockford and only got passed near the line. Can position in similar position today. Only issue is if the ground suits.
Baker Boy: Not going well enough.
Essential Element: Only a fair win last start and weight today isn’t impressive.
Olivier: Maiden on on heavy. Hard to stack up. Nolen riding for Hayes?!?
Kingdom of Dreams: Easy win first up in very easy class. This is a big test. Not sure he is good enough here.
Ready Again: Horrible run first up at Mornington. No thanks.
Miracle to Me: Last start proved she is better ridden cold. Will go back today and have every chance with the long straight.
Murtle Turtle: Not the worst but couldn’t win all of last 5 starts in Adelaide.
Comments: Not super keen here. Many chances and a few good ones resuming.
Confidence 60%
Strategy: Probably staying out but if I was having a go it would be on Le Mans and Miracle to Me.
Flemington Race 4
I’m Too Sexy: Top weight off showing nothing last 3 runs. Need to have grown a 5th leg.
Tweet: 2nd behind Zoustar in maiden, ignore run next start and then won well in 2F-LR. Had a break and first up today. Comes into this very well.
Bold Eavey: Blocked for runs and still got there with ease. One to watch.
Calcatta: Very strong form last prep when went very close behind Menage A Charge at course and distance. Goes well down the straight which is IMPORTANT. Goes well first up and could win with ease.
Bring a Ring: Form looks solid but how solid? Calcatta beat home last time they met and untested on straight.
Mezeray Miss: Ignore run last start at Caulfield. Didn’t handle the slow track. Back to suitable track and distance and will go well. Get a good slot in run
Menage A Charge: Win down the straight last prep but first up run didn’t look suited on slow track. Is there the improvement to win here? Probably.
My Little Friend: Won last start in 2YO losing a plate. Ran 0.5L to Calcatta last prep also and down 2kg today. Could be value.
RomancingTheStone: Unbalanced and lost a plate last start of last prep at MV. Should show much more than that this run and can go close.
Anatina: Won a very average Geelong maiden with ease. But this short?
Melrose Place: Won an easy maiden last start. Hard to see measuring up though.
Chloe In Paris: BIG BIG BIG run first up when lost a plate and only just lost to Kiss a Rose. Looks the one to beat.
Leia: Hard to see the improvement.
Melancolia: Won an average maiden. Doesn’t look good enough for this.
Holy Cow: BIG unknown. One to watch. If backed, have at least a saver on.
Comments: Chloe in Paris is the key runner here. As long as handles the straight track, weighted to win. Calcatta and My Little Friend the main dangers.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Chloe in Paris with a smaller bet on Calcatta
Flemington Race 5
Launay: Slipped on the water walker in training so if runs is a concern. Quality horse who is down in class here and if runs up to previous run can win. Won 5 from 7 at track!
Startsmeup: Ran well enough last start but wasn’t the best swooper in the race. Others looks a little better but could place.
British General: Wasn’t suited last start by the slow track but ran on super well. Back to HIS TRACK back to a GOOD surface.. suited so well today over 1400! Won 3 placed 2 at track and won 3 placed 4 at distance. Maps to lead and will be hard to get past if the trail is working out!
Just Discreet: WFA-G3 winner over in Adelaide. Ran on very strongly behind Commanding Jewel last start and looks suited here. Maps awkwardly is the only issue.
Future Solution: Smashed in the betting last start. Should get every chance today but is he better on a wet surface?
Goldslick: Last win was at course and distance. Blocked for a run last start and looks set to go well. May just be a little too classy a race though.
Sheer Talent: Resuming. Ran close in a Group 1 last prep and won a Group 3 and close in Group 2. 54kg looks very suitable and distance is perfect. If comes back at best can win with class.
Don’t Get Excited: Ran very well last start but just got gobbled up late. Weighted very well again and maps to get an easy run. Will be there at finish. Win over Bass Strait looks nice.
Langridge Street: Not the worst run first up. One to watch. Could swoop.
Molto Bene: Won an easy one first up. Could improve and run well here but is a few lengths behind Just Discreet on last prep.
Beltonic: Won two very well first two runs this prep. Could place.
Comments: Considering the horse that beat Don’t Get Excited last start, I’m willing to risk. I think it all comes down to the rides today. Sheer Talent needs luck to get in from outside barrier… Same with Just Discreet from inside barrier. This is British General’s to win with the run and hopefully Launay gets scratched.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: British General E/W.
Flemington Race 6
Sea Moon: The best horse in the race off UK/Europe form. But we are in AUSTRALIA. For those who don’t know, that is around 27 hours on a plane. Throw the UK/Europe form out the window and what do you price this horse up today? About $8 at very best. Even worse, Sea Moon is top weight of 60k against some with 54kg etc. The task looks a little hard for mine and is probably the lay of the day.
Tanby: Approaching best distances now. First two runs were only ‘ok’ but we know he can do much more than this. Only issue today is how far he gets back and if he can run them down. Don’t discount.
Moudre: Big run behind Foreteller and PDL two back and then flew home last start off the crazy slow speed. BIG issue is the ground. I can’t back on Good.. but if Dead, include as a chance.
Brigantin: Weighted much better today but can you have on those two runs? I can’t.
Tremec: PLOP! Did nothing the last 3 starts. Won 2 of 3 at this distance.. but can’t back surely on those last two runs?
Polish Knight: Didn’t show enough up in Sydney to suggest winning this.
Talent Show: Shown nothing this prep to suggest can win this.
Gotta Take Care: Won last two in lesser grade than this fairly well. Big weight drop down to 54kg and simply eats up distance. Good track not an issue and maps ok!
Keep Cool: An old favourite. Is looking for this distance if you ask me and they have nommed for Melbourne Cup which tells me a different training schedule to get further this prep. Even so, first up run behind Clear for Action was brilliant and next start at 2000m was unlucky not to win off a slow tempo (loves a strong tempo). Ignore last start, doesn’t handle slow or heavy going. The key to this horse is his runs at Course on Good or Dead ground. The figures don’t lie, he constantly goes well here. Could lead this up and just simply win if the rail is as good as I’m hoping.
Motivado: Weighted well today but hasn’t shown enough to suggest is progressive enough this prep to turn the tables on a few here.
Crafty Cruiser: Big surprise win last start over Surpass. Still goes well on Good tracks but has never won at track and giving weight to Gotta Take Care from two back loss is harsh.
Araldo: Good run last start over in Adelaide being Star Rolling. Need to improve to win here but runs overseas suggest will eat up the ground and is weighted very well.
Why Not: Last few runs have been good. Can place if lucky, not sure about the win.
Supremacy: Prefer it wetter.
Comments: Wish this was a Quaddie leg. Probably the betting race of the day. Sea Moon will be back in running and has to pass a wall of horses. There are several who can easily beat Sea Moons last two runs home. I keep coming back to Keep Cool and Gotta Take Care. Both are progressive and will enjoy the distance and positioning in running while Araldo has to be savered on potential.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Backing Keep Cool to win, smaller bet on Gotta Take Care. Savering Araldo.
Flemington Race 7
Lady Lakshmi: Had every chance last two runs and just wasn’t good enough. Down 1kg but still will find a few too good.
Godiva Rock: Did quite a bit wrong last start it seems. Suggest they are wanting a straighter track run and further so could find best today.
Romantic Moon: Disappointing runs the last two starts. Extra distance could go well but on this form? No.
Wordplay: Classy runner coming down for a run. Eats up the 1600m and last start in harder class (I suggest an easier race) went very well. Not on top for me but is certainly included in Quaddie.
Solicit: Big progression this prep. Won a maiden and then went on to win at MV in good style after being blocked. A step up again and Boss jumps off… but breeding suggests will go well at distance.
Politeness: The one you want to be on here. Beautiful ride on Gregers last start made them crawl out front and Politeness was one of the few all day to go close from the back when this happened. It was a big run and she is clearly the one to beat today.
Se Sauver: Issues at barrier last start. Ignore that. Issue is the distance for mine.
Metaphorical: Good win last start with weight at Bendigo. Will enjoy the distance but is she classy enough?
Every Faith: Hard to back at weights to beat Metaphorical here so hard to have. Doesn’t look that good either.
Star Fashion: progressive. Good runs the last two and loves the distance. Hard to count her out here.
Fantome Gris: Poorly weighted and a few form lines that don’t help her here. Could run well though.
Comments: Tough race. Many chances but Politeness at the price looks the one to be on.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie Leg One: 4, 5, 6, 10
Strategy: Politeness to win
Flemington Race 8
Manighar: Tough barrier. Ran very well off a slow tempo behind It’s a Dundeel last start. Better horse on a Good track and goes ok at Flemington. Should enjoy the extra distance also. A place chance but not sure he can beat them all home.
Sangster: IMPRESSIVE last start at Moonee Valley behind Fiorente. Wasn’t ridden for any favours and really ran well. Could improve to a place today if lucky. Maps to get a nice enough spot.
Happy Trails: Another runner to come out of the Dundeel race who ran on very well. He isn’t one who likes a slow track either. Back to a Good track and Flemington suits. Distance may be considered an issue, but showed enough last start to suggest can actually win this off a lucky ride if finds best. The way he actually hit the line last start showed there was more in the tank than we saw the first two runs.
Super Cool: Close. No Cigar. I suspec this could be the case for him all prep.. or he could just blow these away! His run here last prep 3 runs in beating Fiveandahalfstar was eye-catching… but this is much harder grade. Maps a little bad for my liking.
Hawkspur: Ran on well behind Streama last start and win previous was good but was also set up off fast tempos. I don’t think he gets that today and I don’t think he is really that good. I am very happy to risk today. Prove me wrong!
Fiorente: Super effort last start. That last 100m was very impressive. Barrier hurts but is going back anyway. This could hurt in the end if they go at the tempo i’m expecting out front. Good horse.. even better over further than this.
Puissance De Lune: Gun. Weighted so well today back in Group 1 company. Actually important to realise he is more than 1kg better off on horses like Manighar and Happy Trails etc and was by far the run of the race last start. Even weighted better than Super Cool. Loves the track. Goes so well here. Will not be given a ride where he is OVER-RIDDEN like here two back.. looks to be peaking. Need a bit of luck to get off the rails but price is YUMMY. Will be ridden more forward today i HOPE.
Glencadam Gold: Returned to best form last start when almost held out Moriarty who goes around a close favourite up north today. ISSUE. Missed start previous 2 runs and can’t swoop. Last start jumped well and put on a ‘solid’ enough tempo. Berry will try and ride like he did in the Cup and make it a slow tempo IMO. Actually has a chance.
Tuscan Fire: Since first up win over 1400m hasn’t shown us much. Could be training on to peak for the Cup. Could go forward today and actually have a chance instead of trying to swoop which he isn’t a swooper.
Silent Achiever: Good run last start without setting the world on fire. Looking for further IMO.
Fawkner: Weighted well today against Hawkspur but is he back to his previous preps form? I’m not so sure on this. I think he still has a run or two to peak. Stable thinks he can go close. Maps well enough.
Mr O’Ceirin: Our Caulfield Cup horse. Actually weighted only averagely here today but is the only other potential leader in the race with Glencadam Gold. If GG misses the start, he could just lap it up, get easy splits and brain them. Zahra gave a very good ride on him two back which is good to have him back on. ISSUE: 0 wins from 10 starts on good… but still goes well.
Jet Away: Maps out the back which certainly hurts. That would make it very hard to win considering the other swoopers this horse has to be better than. Had a slight setback in training a few weeks back also. Rumour is the horse is flying though.
Dear Demi: Only average weight today compared to others in race. Loves the distance and can position well from barrier. Not the worst here. Other races where better weighted to come.
Quintessential: Runs this prep have been ‘ok’ but not anything to blow you away. Not classy enough for me.
Royal Descent: Will she measure up? I will admit the run behind Strema had a lot of merit. Will position well enough to have her shot but is she really classy enough to be winning this? I’m just not so sure on it. Could go close and shorten in the CC market.
Comments: RACE TEMPO. Glencadam Gold missed the start his last two runs. If this happens again today we will have a SLOW tempo out front with Mr O’Ceirin being allowed to crawl it. This could be VERY interesting and F4s around this could pay BIG TIME.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie Leg Two: 3, 7, 8, 12, 16
Strategy: Hard to passup Double Fixed Odds at Ladbrokes and Betsar on Puissance De Lune. I will be having smaller bets on Glencadam Gold, Happy Trails and Mr O’Ceirin also.
Flemington Race 9
Spirit of Boom: First up run was super at Randwick. Onto the straight is proven to be able to run and back to a Good track should actually suit. Can go close.
Galah: Last prep finished off in style with a big win at Eagle Farm in Group 2 company. Up 4kg today and onto a track condition he has never won on. Has won at the track previously but this is very hard.
Go The Knuckle: Ignore last start and look to previous prep. If produces a similar run to any of those can go well enough.
Sessions: Just got the win last start and is giving up weight to Aeronatuical. Won’t find this as easy today but is obviously a winning hope.
Platelet: Group 1 winner who has never missed a place at track from 3 runs. First up run was fairly solid running on at MV and should be fitter for that run. Never won first up but has won 2nd up and went close in WFA-G3 2nd last prep 2nd up. Weighted to win this.
Smokin’ Joey: Last two preps have been fairly poor. Only placed 1 from 8 at track is an issue but at best could run well.
That’s The One: Found a few too good for him the last few runs but does like Flemington. Couldn’t have on last two runs though they were at MV from the back.
Albrecht: Huge run from dead last when finishing strongly behind Spediness first up. Proven down the straight and weighted well enough again today. One of the best here.
Aeronautical: Close 3rd behind Shamexpress here in G1 last prep second up. First up run was SUPER behind Sessions at Randwick and is weighted to win today. BIG chance.
Mister Milton: Ran on well enough last start at course. Previous to that got a two wins in a row at course and distance. This is a little harder.
Griffon: Good horse who just keeps finding a few too good. Is due to win soon and wouldn’t shock here. Just keeps going close.
Reflectance: Doesn’t look anywhere near good enough on first up run this prep.
Steps In Time: At her best, she wins this… but how will she go first up? Never won at track but goes well at distance. Last prep was average at best.
Comments: Several chances in this race.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg Three: 4, 5, 8, 9, 11, 13
Strategy: Aeronatuical on top from Albrecht.
Flemington Race 10
Maybe Discreet: First up run was only fair. Won only start at track. Last prep went close in a hot race over 1400m at Caulfield. After that went on to win a 3F-GP1. Maps to go out in the front half of the field with a lack of speed. Chance.
Flying Snitzel: 1 from 1 at the track after running down Norzita in one of the runs of the Autumn. After that showed absolutely nothing. Ran well enough first up and if produces 2nd up like last prep can blow them away.
Zurella: Never missed a place firs tup. Last start in similar distances went very close. Back to correct distance today and should run well if fit.
Kazanluk: Disappoiting finish to prep. Did run well in easier races and over shorter distances. Need to have found a few more lengths.
Hi Belle: Will appreciate the extra distance today. Fairly unlucky not to run Catkins down last start but had every chance and couldn’t guts it out. Can go one better.
Catkins: Had a solid run and got out and stayed on to win it just on the line. No doubt she will be there at the finish again like her previous 5 starts. Quality mare and one of the ones to beat. Important to note how well she maps.
Lake Sententia: Didn’t show enough first up to suggest should improve enough over the 1400m to win this. Has won 2nd up and did go close to The New Boy last prep but this is classier. Looking for 2000m.
Fire up Fifi: Super poor first up. Had a good run around the track but will she measure up? Not sure I could back off last start.
Peron: Too far back last start and should have bolted in. Will get every chance at this track today. Maps well.
A Time for Julia: Back to 1400m on Flemington and maps better today. Back to a better surface such as Good is the big positive. Needs to improve to pass Catkins.
Mybenz: Showed big improvement last start. No surprise if continued that improvement today and won well at the weights.
Epingle: Never won first up or at track but is weighted well today with good form lines from last prep. Barrier an issue.
Perfectly Stunning: Hard to see the required improvement.
Girl Gone Rockin: Good horse who was progressive previous prep before last but failed last start. Not sure up to this class over this distance.
Red Fez: Not going well enough to win this off first two runs would suggest.
Balaclava Lady: Hard to see the progression over others here.
Comments: Anyone suggesting Peron is a moral here is incorrect. One of the toughest races of the day. There doesn’t seem to be a great deal of pace in the race. I much prefer the place of Catkins to place than the Peron win quote. I think Catkins can hold them off as well.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 2, 6, 9, 11
Strategy: Catkins to PLACE looks one of the bets of the day.
Randwick Race 3
Masked Marvel: Huge run last start, probably should have won. Was slow away and drifted to the outside rail. Repeat that effort today and will be hard to beat.
Kelinni: First two runs this prep have been sub-par. Up to pet distance but on last two runs hard to see the win today.
Winning Glory: Got us a good win at good odds last start at Newcastle and rider even lost whip! Up in weight today and up in class looks a little hard.. but he will be hard to run past once again.
Cantonese: Back up in distance as required today but not going well enough.
Honorius: Went close at distance last start behind Prince Cheri. Up 4kg today up in class is harsh.
Hippopus: Not good enough on first up run.
Vaquera: Won very well over 1400m first up and is looking for the extra distance. Hard to rate!
Comments: Masked Marvel is heading towards both the cups and this certainly isn’t the best distance for the horse.. but you would expect a win in this class heading onwards and upwards.
Confidence: 75%
Strategy: Backing Masked Marvel
Randwick Race 4
A race in two here between Guelph and Arabian Gold. Equal weights today and barriers are similar as well. Guelph will have every advantage up the extra 200m today and looked to do it easy last start. Guelph is 3rd up and should be peaking while Arabian Gold is having a 6th run which would suggest the peaking has finished.
Confidence 90%
Strategy: Guelph to win
Randwick Race 5
Zoustar: Absolutely SUPER winer last start when didn’t go forward and actually went to the back.. ran on very well. Should be able to go forward or back from barrier 4 today! The one to beat by far.
Va Pensiero: Continues to run well but was found out when went a little further back last start. Expect to try and push further forward today to be in with a better shot. Meets Barbed 2kg better which is the key for me.
Barbed: Very progressive and big win last start. Should be suited again today but weighted poorly.
Mr Jackman: Last few runs have been ok but this class? No.
Open Book: Actually ran well last start but this is much harder. Could place?
Havana: Weighted poorly today so hard to have.
Flak Jacket: Not good enough
Little Miss Smiley: Not good enough
Comments: Happy to take on Barbed at the weights today.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: 2 units to Place on Va Pensiero looks the best bet here while backing Zoustar is also another solid option.
Randwick Race 7
I’m not going to go runner by runner her. Instead, I will focus on the main runners.
Veyron: Ran on VERY well last start after being more positive. From barrier 2 will get it a bit easier to go forward again. Can run well.
Sacred Falls: Keeps running well but best will be seen when we have a wet track. Not today for me.
Rekindled Interest: Big run last start at MV over 1200m. Down 5.5kg today and up to a distance that suits. Winner of that race ran 3rd in Group race since and the runner behind also won last weekend. Sound form.
Streama: Continues to just run massive races. Last two runs have been awesome and beat the Caulfield Cup favourite Royal Descent last start at course and distance. Down 2.5kg today which is massive as well. Top chance.
Toydini: Let fly late last start and will eat up the Randwick straight. Will get a fast speed again today which is suitable… but most importantly is down 4kg today and gains KGs on Strema and Veyron.
Riva De Lago: Where did that run come from? Wowie! Solz ran close behind Rebel Dane last start who would go around a good price here today one would suspect. Weighted to go close.
Boban: Race was run super fast and suited. Only down 1.5kg today is an issue but if gets a similar run will go close.
Comments: One of the toughest races all day. 5 KEY chances here.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Key bet is on Streama to PLACE here while if betting to win then Strema and Toydini are the key runners for mine with a smaller bet on Riva De Lago.
Randwick Race 8
Nothing appeals here and I honestly couldn’t sort through these. Arinosa is the only one I like but the value has been eatin up since open. Just an ignore race.
Randwick Race 9
Mourayan: A lot of unknown in this horse. Probably best over further but first up run wasn’t horrible.
Moriarty: Could get trapped from rails run. Lost a plate and still won well! Weighted nicely.
Seville: Overrated if you ask me but wouldn’t shock to see improvement today.
Julienas: Won very easy last start in what as an easy race. This is the testing material down 4kg today.
Sneak a Peek: did a lot wrong last start and still got close. Could go close.
Ibicenco: Ignore last start doesn’t like it wet like that and nothing went to plan. Will get back today and be running on very well late like last win at Caulfield. Weighted to win.
Prince Cheri: Last two runs have been solid but this is much harder. Weighted nicely but could find one or two too good.
Ironstein: Weighted to win today down 6.5kg after being blocked for run in straight and being not too far away.
I’m Imposing: Ran ok last start but weighted poorly here.
Lucripetous: Good run at Newcastle and weighted nicely but others appeal.
Comments: Tough race with many chances but a few stand out.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Backing Ironstein and Ibicenco both on the E/W.
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