Welcome to the Profits form guide for 12 July 2014 at Flemington. How amazing is the card on offer today? The weather is going to be very very average, but I can’t see how I can stay at home with such an awesome card on offer… I might have to get in my car and arrive on track for Race 2! Blinkers on today and we have a sole focus on Flemington with a lot of value on offer. The format of Best Bets for the day has changed also. We have some very high confidence numbers on offer at the track and there are four key races we want to be betting into, while the 5th/6th, not best bets, all depend on how the track is playing later in the day. As always, I hope your form matches up with mine. Good luck and happy punting!
Melbourne Best Bet #1
Flemington Race 4 Vain Queen
Vain Queen is a superstar down the straight. Proved she is back to her best last start winning in dominant fashion.. most importantly… she broke their hearts. The sectionals speak for themselves. Step up in class, but still rated much shorter than the price we are getting today.
Melbourne Best Bet #2
Flemington Race 7 Miss Promiscuity AND Under The Louvre.
Two horse play here. This is a very tough race but I am very happy to have my money split between those runners to give us some nice odds when either of them gets up. Miss Promiscuity is one of the most promising sprinters down a straight i’ve seen over the past few years. Being a Magnus filly, she will be even better this prep having matured into her body as the Magnus bred horses are generally better late 3 early 4. She is a class above everything apart from Under The Louvre who still has untapped potential. Should have won last start, i’m certain of that. Given no chance with the ride and today, given a good ride, we will see the best of UTL. I don’t expect the price for Miss Promiscuity to last.. will come in at least 33% before the race starts. UTL could drift, again.
Melbourne Next Bet #1
Flemington Race 2 Dig A Pony
Very unlucky not to get the win last start. Way back in grade today if you ask me and she is VERY well placed. The only concern today happens to be race tactics from the wide barrier with a lack of speed in the race. Even if they crawl, she is classy enough to run them all down as long as there is no bias. Big odds. Should be $2s on.
Melbourne Next Bet #2
Flemington Race 5 Refulgent
Refulgent is back to best form and back in class today. Taking on some serious plodders today. Zebrinz is heavy unders based on last start while I really can’t see anything else to battle these two for the win. Getting a very good price to win ratings considered.
Flemington Quaddie
Quaddie Leg One: 3, 12
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 4, 5, 9, 12
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 4, 14, 15
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 4, 5, 8, 9, 11
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Flemington Race 1
Zebulon the right price to back here today but you know me, not enough form to work off here, WAY to many good races to bet into. Just watch this.
Strategy: Sink an early beer or two… best start the day slow hey?
Flemington Race 2
Dig A Pony: Very very very well placed today. She is lengths better than the field here today and the track condition suits perfectly. The only thing that could do her in is if we have a leader bias… but in reality.. she could sit forward today due to lack of speed.
Vivi Veloce: 4L 2nd to Dig A Pony last start and 0.5kg worse off today. Have to find another gear.
Kona: Running ok up in Sydney this prep but has to find MUCH more here. Big step up in class.
Native Land: Showed the ability to win this at the start of her prep but hasn’t progressed. Best shown on dryer tracks as well.
Shadow of the Mist: Good run two back at Caulfield and last start a forgive run. Could consider a slight chance.
Dancing Rose: Cranbourne winner in very average time last start. Looks under the correct odds but did run Dig A Pony two back to 1.5L.
It’s One: Will appreciate the extra distance today. Can run well and place.
Savannah Moon: Times and ratings too poor to measure up here without significant improvement.
Solar Rock: Progressed through the grades first two runs when horrible last start. Can’t see it.
Good Music: Ignore last start when breathing issues. On previous runs looks the main danger to Diggy.
Cuban Lass: Continues to find one too good. Will happen again.
Ardelle: Not this class of runner based on runs this prep.
Call Us Primi: Has to find lengths to place today on last two runs.
Titian Silk: Ran ok last start but has to find much more today to get into the prize money.
Dainty Miss: Given no hope last start, ran quite well to hold on for 3rd. Won’t be winning.
Halcyon: Not winning here.
Brewing: Shown nothing this prep.
Comments: Dig A Pony a step above them. Tactics the only questionable part of the race today for her. Still a big price considering.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Dig A Pony to win.
Flemington Race 3
Permit: Ran well last start at Rosehill but couldn’t get the win. Two back run every chance at course and similar distance. Can improve today and go well.
Voila Ici: Showed nothing last prep. Can’t trust this guy anymore.
Crafty Cruiser: Up 3.5kg today and that will do him in for sure. Will run well but no thanks.
Sacred Flyer: Out to a nice price today. Suited by track conditions and last start was simply an ignore run. Weighted well.
Zabeelionaire: Every chance two back and showed nothing last start. Can’t rate.
Mulaqen: Never won on anything but Good. Happy to be against today at the weights and on this track surface.
Marksmanship: Is he the real deal? I’m not sold. Big step up to 2600m from 2000m today.. looks to be able to handle it but how can you be so confident that he will find his best again which is required. Looks short.
Zuma Roc: Should have won last start, didn’t. Can’t have today. Will run well of course but can’t have.
King of Dudes: Up 2kg today after a strong unlucky 2nd last start at course and similar distance. Have to rate a chance even at weights.
Fabriano: Not going well enough this prep to place.
Sparton: Can’t see beating more than 2-3 home.
Wet Weapon: 8.5L 12th best run in R-64 this prep.. Please. Why is this horse allowed to run?
Comments: Are the Victorian runners form the best to go off? This is really a tricky race.
Confidence 60%
Strategy: Permit E/W
Flemington Race 4
Le Bonsir: Ran home well last start behind Lord of the Sky but no match. Way back in class here but still big odds. Nice E/W chance today but shown best on Good tracks.
Broken: Not on the three runs this prep but you never know with Weir.
Pillar of Creation: Two wins in a row but back to 1200m today. Never won at track from 9 attempts but does enjoy the straight. Has to find another gear today.
Shanghai Warrior: Every chance the last two runs.. both been solid but won’t be beating Vain Queen home today.
Vain Queen: Brained them last start in stunning time. Goes well on slow, dead or good. Just wins.
Nearest to Pin: Every chance last start and just beaten home. Poor two runs back. Not sure he is best on a straight.
Koe: Can’t see her placing on previous prep.
Felidea: Needs further. Not in this.
Corsica Lad: Looks very short on two runs to date in very easy class. Looks a place lay.
Comments: Vain Queen simply just wins.
Confidence 90%
Strategy: Vain Queen to win.
Flemington Race 5
Refulgent: Super win last start at course and distance beating a very classy runner in Dig A Pony. Weighted very well today and a big chance.
Mista Spot: Hasn’t measured up in this class all prep and hard to see him turning that form around even when back to 1600m today.
Tankster: Back in class last start got a win. Up in class, off a heavy track, weighted poorly in this class.
Best Suggestion: Very disappointing last start at Caulfield. May have to forgive that run??? Not so sure. Can’t have today.
Artie Mortie: Didn’t measure up in easier company last start. Not here.
Don Reggio: Atlantis Dream, Aeratus form this prep but hasn’t made the step up. Could place but not sure he can win.
Turnitaround: Best run this prep was on Good at course and distance three runs back. Ran ok last start on heavy but has to find much more today.
Artie’s Shore: Shown very little this prep. Can’t see the turn around here either.
Second Bullet: Very very poor last start at course and distance. Heavily under the odds today. Can’t have.
Zebrinz: Unlucky last start but not sure he wins it on the run I saw on replay. Equal weight with Refulgent today and needs to find a length or two on my ratings.
Kwanza: Decent run last start in this grade but not good enough to win this today.
The Terricks: Suited by further distances and only won a maiden. No thanks.
Henning: Shown nothing last two starts but may be considered a chance due to 2nd to Refulgent three runs back. Not for mine.
Benchi Pegasus: Couldn’t win R-64’s this prep so not this class.
Comments: Very happy to take Zebrinz on today, clearly unders at the price. Refulgent.the stand out.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie Leg One: 3, 12
Strategy: Medium sized bet on Refulgent
Flemington Race 6
The Cleaner: Super win last start at MV. Loves it wet or dry. Loves 1600m and can blow these away if at his best. Big chance and big price today.
Dany The Fox: Constant performer but doesn’t win out of turn. Should run nicely today and threaten but not win.
Lord of Brazil: Been going ‘ok’ but hasn’t won since Jan 2013 and form suggests outclassed at weights.
Akavoroun: Never runs a bad race. Found out two back on slow, didn’t get the best ride/luck in running though. Another step up in class and improvement required.
Tried and Tired: Back to his best last start. First step up to 1600m a concern and best ratings shown on dryer tracks than this. Still, has the X factor and maps very well.
Henwood: Too far back last start. Finished off nicely but finished far off them. First step up to 1600m a concern but should stay. Best has been seen on the wet, but has to overcome a few who have beaten him in the past. Not the best barrier either.
Eximius: Thumps last start so forgive. Two back run good but has to find much more today. Barrier hurts.
Lord Durante: Ignore last start and rate on two back at Bendigo. Has the ability to match it with these but probably finds a few too good today.
Fast and Free: The wetter the better for this guy. Ignore two back run when lame post-race. Weighted nicely and barrier helps. Big player today.
Gig: Best shown on dryer surfaces but has gone close on wet. Measures up on ratings three runs back but last two been very poor. Hard to have.
Said Com: Slow track would be ideal but can’t see him finishing any closer than 3rd today based on the past five runs.
Ringo: Big chance today. Shown his best on slow tracks and we may just have that today. Measured up on Good first up in Aus and will be better for the run.
Post D’France: Shown us nothing this prep. Can’t have him even though he has talent.
Soros: Last two runs both had merit. Big step up in class this race. Not for mine.
Murcielaga: Gone around as favourite his last two starts. Can’t see him winning this.
Force Command: Maiden only winner. Nuff said.
Constant Force: Hard horse to catch. Peak run last prep was out of the blue. Showed nothing this prep.
Blackie: Very average to the line last start. Run better on the wet today but not showing me as much this prep as we last last prep.
Durnford: Not his distance today.
Comments: Five clear standouts here. Henwood is a false favourite and won’t be suited in the run by mapped position. The Cleaner will be rolling this one along as a very fast tempo and he will have to be run down.. good luck. Akavoroun has done everything right this prep but has to take the next step. tried and Tired continues to run very good races… only concern is if he handles this tempo. Ringo has X factor and slow may bring out the best in him. Fast and Free likes it wet and is suited to fast tempos. Does his best work late from good positions. Will be close enough.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 4, 5, 9, 12
Strategy: Big bet on The Cleaner. Medium bet on Fast and Free.
Flemington Race 7
Under The Louvre: Only run on Slow was 5th.. but don’t let that fool you.. the horse was galloped on in run. Since then has trialled on Slow and won. Very sound wet track prospect. Should have won last start, no question about it, very poor ride cost him every chance. Stronger race today a massive issue but Hall goes on and as long as he gets clear running, will be very hard to hold out at the line.
Kievann: Never got past Hard Stride last start but got a lucky bob and won it. That’s racing. Never placed at track. Going well this prep but happy to take him on down the straight.
Hard Stride: Goes well on wet. Looks to be a better prospect around a corner than down the straight and should find a few too good today.
Search Squad: Step back to 1200m is interesting. Only start down the straight was 1.5L 10th in similar class. Goes well enough on slow, outside chance.
Monkstone: Not sure if Nolen was forced to give up the ride on the fav by Moody to ride the stable runner or not, but he has to get on Monkstone today. A horse who impressed at 2, hasn’t shown anything at 3. Not sure.. especially straight first time.
Beleeup: Big improvement last start to win at higher than $100-1 odds. Don’t discount him fully today either. If he went around at $10 last start then he would be $10 today… market has under-reacted to the win. Is giving a few handy ones enough weight though.. must include in F4s!
Bring a Ring: Ran well enough first up behind Il Cavallo but didn’t impress me enough to be making the step up today. Needs 1400m.
Melrose Place: Shown nothing first two runs. Can’t have.
The Monstar: Shown enough the last two runs and weighted nicely today. Has to improve again though.
Baker Boy: Ignore last start when galloped on and rate on two back. Never placed at track a massive issue but running well enough to figure in this.
Mio Dio: Poorly weighted. Not going close here today.
Prix D’Or: Won three in a row making his way through the grades. Poorly weighted today but did beat Weinholt last start… but I can’t have here.
Pyrrolic: Big 2YO win at Sandown on slow by 3L… last prep didn’t show much. Can’t have.
Longchamp Belle: Won three back at course and distance. Big step up in class the last two runs but measured up. Ignore tow back.. ran well but missing start cost her the win. Will be out the front and be hard to pass. Best on wet.
Miss Promiscuity: Dominant last prep down the straight winning b 4.3 lengths. Previous run was a 4L killing at MV as well… then everything went wrong last start at MV and still ran 0.4L 2nd to a horse called Jazz Song who ran 5th in the QLD Guineas then won the Waterhouse after that. She is the real deal and being a Magnus… you have to believe she has gone to the next level again. Only concern is her best runs have been on dryer tracks.. although she won her maiden on slow.
Street Allure: Won three in a row and continues to improve. Think she finds a few too good today though.
Comments: About 6-7 ‘chances’ on paper in this race but two clear standouts. Search Squad has to be included in the Quaddie today. Four seconds and three firsts with a 1.5L 10th and a fail due to blocking on record, he is consistent and will in this at the finish based on form. Longchamp Belle won here impressively three back and the times on slow suggest she goes close today.. hasn’t disappointed since either. The two stand outs are Under The Louvre and Miss Promiscuity. Under th Louvre will handle the slow with no issues. Maps to need a bit of luck to get a run, but if ridden correctly will be hitting the line very very hard and running over the top of the field. Miss Promiscuity has Group 1 potential. Being a Magnus filly, she will have matured even further since we saw her five months ago and her form is very sound including her dominant win down the straight. Most importantly, she is weighted so well in this class.
Confidence 85%
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 4, 14, 15
Strategy: Very big bet on Miss Promiscuity. Medium bet on Under The Louvre.
Flemington Race 8
Lady Melksham: I was VERY impressed with her run last start. It is as if she is back to her best. She handles any type of ground but generally in the past has shown her best on the wetter surfaces. I have to believe there is improvement off that last start run and from barrier 7, can position MUCH further forward than last start and Newitt could get her home at very good odds in the last.
Classy Chloe: Improved effort last start at Caulfield compared to two previous runs over in Adelaide… but at the weights has to find a length or two more today. Maps well enough.
Jolie Blonde: Showed nothing last start after a very good run behind Vain Queen. Think the weight got her and probably will again.
Danish Whiskey: Just ignore last start at Caulfield. Couldn’t find a passage through and was flying.. probably should have won. Good barrier today and maps to get a closer to the front run than previous. Big chance and big odds.
Nautical: Good win last start. Good run previous to Vain Queen also. Best seen on dryer tracks but still no issue. 1400m suitable again. Only issue is if she finds herself too far back and gets left behind.
Angelic Lass: Wasn’t the worst runner at all last start. Shooting duck out front but didn’t exactly run it hard early either. Back to wet track suits.. can run well.
Atlantis Dream: Big step up in class again and probably a little too far up. Beaten by a 250-1 pop last start on the line but still ran nicely. Has to improve.
Nadeem Lass: Wasn’t asked to show anything last start when blocked for runs. Will go back again today but could surprise with a big run. Query over distance though.
La Venta: Has a bit of class. Need to ignore significantly to measure up here, but has shown the ability in the past and ran well enough first up. Maps very well.
Nadhima: Continues to run well but finding a few too good every start. Will occur again today.
Galway Warrior: Ran well last start but couldn’t beat them home. Nice barrier again today. Better weighted today also.
Kimiko: Shown nothing this prep. No thanks.
Queen of Eight: Can’t see her measuring up based on last two runs. Pass.
Bian Divine: Need to win a BM-64 before we consider her to even place here. No thanks.
Waitaha Prophecy: Not this class. BM-60 last win.
Comments: Wide final leg but I keep coming back to two runners at value in Lady Melksham and Danish Whiskey.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 4, 5, 8, 9, 11
Strategy: Small win bets on Lady Melksham & Danish Whiskey.
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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