Welcome to The Profits Saturday racing form for Flemington. Wednesday went a little better than Saturday, although, we were really unlucky with our Best Bet who should have at least played, most likely won, but didn’t do either due to a jockey error. That’s racing. The card today at Flemington doesn’t look ‘that tricky’, but we have been fooled in the past. Confidence is medium today. I hope you form matches up with mine. Good luck and happy punting!
Best Bet
Flemington Race 2 Ava’s Delight
Next Best
Flemington Race 6 Another Prelate & The Cleaner
Best Value
Flemington Race 5 Perturbo
SA Best
Morphetville Race 4 Espirit De Bullet
Simply the best in the race. Barrier suits and on form should be a length ahead of them at the finish.
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters Paradise – http://www.puntersparadise.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means a speculation pick.
Flemington Race 1
Lady Lakshmi: Won 3 in a row now and handles any surface. Up 1.5kg today but still has a neck on them at very least.
Resistant: Ran well last start behind Lady Lakshmi. Meets 1.5kg better today but needs to have progressed again.
The Bowler: Very green last start and did a lot wrong. Down 0.5kg today meeting Lady Lakshmi 2kg better off today. Rates and weighted to win.
Purrcolate: Ran well enough to win a maiden last start but this is much harder.
Street Battle: Maiden win doesn’t look good enough.
Honey’s Steel Gold: Won an average maiden on Heavy.
Mysonharry: Ran well enough last start but won’t measure up.
Pinstripe Lane: Couldn’t place in a maiden.
Victorious Tale: Won’t go close.
Solo Saga: Hard to see going close on previous form.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Backing The Bowler with a Saver on Lady Lakshmi.
Flemington Race 2
Ava’s Delight: Missed the start by 2 lengths and was MASSIVE winning by 2.8L. Up 3kg today but that isn’t an issue here.
Lonhruge: Surprised a few last start with a strong win on Heavy. Form suggests needs it wetter.
Spitfire Lady: Shown ability in the past but hasn’t placed in 4 runs at this class.
Danestroem: Progressive type but up against it in this class.
Maglissa: Not going well enough to win this.
Abdaan: Good win last start but this looks MUCH harder.
Divine Denona: Hard to see the progression.
Mayan Prophecy: Good maiden win last start on Heavy. Could surprise a few here.
Perfect Offering: Recent runs suggest a few lengths off these.
Mezulla: Not shown enough.
Nextress: Not good enough for this on recent form.
Tunisia Traveller: Couldn’t win a maiden.
Confidence 90%
Strategy: Ava’s Delight would be beating all of these on her last four runs and looks to be value even at the short price today.
Flemington Race 3
Streaky Fella: Not going well enough.
Upbeat: Turned a corner last start with a very brave 3rd. Off 56kg today and back down in class, looks weighted to win today.
Magic Me: Down in class and weighted well but has to find a good 2 lengths today.
Gail: Hard to back on two recent runs but is weighted well enough when you consider she is 4kg better off against Upbeat that two runs back.
Lethal Arrow: First up run was great but since then has been poor. Wants it wet.
Rock Princess: Disappointed last start but hit the line really well. Will appreciate Flemington but not weighted the best in this class.
Streets of Seattle: Quality runner who will appreiciate the extra distance today, might be looking for one more run? Is down 3kg today and down in class and up in distance. Win looks capable on form.
Midnight Glory: Not good enough on form.
Sea Skye: Not good enough on form.
St Mark: Won well but this is a big step up in class. Weighted ok but hard to back without having an inside word.
Zuma Roc: Not going well enough off last start run.
Kel’s Magic: Not good enough for this.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Upbeat look the most progressive here today while Gail is weighted to win. Small win bets on each.
Flemington Race 4
Digitalism: Back down in class today and meets Hunger 1.5kg worse off today for 0.3L win two back on Slow. Last start 2nd to Spacecraft was strong but needs to find a bit more today.
Hunger: Very strong 2nd behind Avas Delight who should frank this form. Weighted well enough again today.
Kings Palace: Big win last prep at 2000m at Caulfield. Ran well first up this prep but looks poorly weighted.
Quick Snitzel: Running well enough but has to find an extra length or two today.
Bishops Castle: Big win last start at Bendigo in much easier grade. Hard to repeat here but hard to dismiss last start also.
Edgewood: Shouldn’t pass a few here.
Batman: Disappointing last two runs. Has to find much more.
Heart Reef: Not going well enough to win this.
Under The Leaner: Good horse on its day but not today.
Space: Good win first up two back then ran wide and did everything wrong last start. Hard to have today.
Tooleybuc Kid: Ran well enough last start to suggest could place.
Vintage Lad: Not good enough.
Precious Gem: Ran well enough to have a place chance today.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Happy to back Digitalism and Hunger both to win.
Flemington Race 5
Sea Lord: Returned ok but really needed to win last start to be winning here. Still, is a top quality horse and will run well.
Mr Make Believe: Very poor last start. Weighted slightly better today but has to find a lot more than last start run.
Riziz: Run very well each time this prep. Last start a very big win but this looks stronger. Up 1kg today and will find a few to match him.
Chasse: Disappointing last start of last prep. Hard to see the win over 1200m first up. Never won firs tup.
Perturbo: All things considered you have to be interested in him here. Two back beat home Riziz and then last start just forgive? Goes very well at Flemington always and looks VALUE.
Shellscrape: Last few runs not good enough.
Mr Griswold: Not going well enough.
Veewap: Poor first up. Can’t see it 2nd up either.
Dee Bee Nine: Run very well last start and ignoring previous run where against racing pattern, other runs were super. Go very close today.
Dash For Viz: Won 1 from 12 at this track and placed 4 times won 0 from 15 at class. Running well enough this prep but just doesn’t have the will to win.
Belfast Boy: Doesn’t seem to be going well enough this prep.
Nicholls Court: Just forgive firs tup run. Slowly away, overraced and poor post-race recovery. Has the ability to win at best.
Livigno: Doesn’t seem to show us enough to win here.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg One: 3, 5, 9, 12
Strategy: Perturbo seems to run well every 2nd race. Looks well suited today while Dee Bee Nine is also ready to win. Backing both runners.
Flemington Race 6
The Cleaner: Great win for us last start and comes into this with every chance once again. Up 2kg but has every chance.
Glaneuse: Not going well enough for this.
Blackie: Surprising win last start set up by a hot tempo. Much harder race today.
Magnifique Soleil: Ran well enough two back and then last start found out. Hard to have today.
Another Prelate: Extra distance will suit and has been very unlucky this prep. Deserves a win and has EVERY chance today.
Rockpecker: Not going well enough.
Testacana: Not good enough for this today.
Dayita: Good win last start when surprised a few. Back in form. Up in class today main issue but don’t dismiss.
Storm Burst: Needs to show significant improvement to place.
Ulundi: Not running up to previous preps standards. Even if so, needs to improve.
Hollowlea: Last two runs have been sound but this is a MUCH harer race today. Hasn’t won since 2010.
Under The Hat: Weighted well enough today and has every chance if trains on even more.
Clanga’s Glory: Has ability and you can’t dismiss.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 3, 5, 8
Strategy: This looks to be Another Prelates day but The Cleaner will be there all the way to the line. Backing both of them for a nice result.
Flemington Race 7
Vatuvei: Ran well enough last start to suggest can threaten today.
Sahara Sun: Good 3rd last start but needs to find much more today.
De Fine Lago: Big win last start and comes into this well. Is he progressive enough?
Cooldini: Big win last start for us at course and similar distance. Up 2.5kg today seems fair and slots in well from barrier 7. Can win again.
Final Folly: Good 2nd last start and from barrier 1 will go lead again. Hard to see the win on previous run though but can place.
Jumpin Jack Cash: Big win last start but hard to see measuring up here.
Stand To Gain: Not in this today on previous runs.
Police Gazette: Ran well last start but has to find much more today. Has every chance.
Outback Joe: Not going to pass Cooldini today.
Ayushman: Not good enough on recent form.
Mister Ceriani: R-62 winner. No thanks.
Hindu’s Girl: Not good enough.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie Leg Three: 3, 4
Strategy: Hard to go past Cooldini again today.
Flemington Race 8
Innocent Lady: Ran quite well first up and should improve again. Does need to have trained on at these weights. Ouch!
Koe: 54kg up to 60kg today after two strong recent wins. Can make it 3 in a row.
Spot On Maggie: Meets Koe 2kg better off today. Can reverse previous run at these weights.
Danish Whiskey: Not going good enough to suggest can win this today.
Lycra Lass: Won last two in a row including a game at Randwick. Not much form around that race though.
Ominous Quality: Fairly overrated runner who will find this hard today.
Bia Diamond: Couldn’t get close last start so hard to suggest can win on recent form.
Belaruski: Speedmaps well and will run well agian. Could place.
Kimiko: Not good enough here.
Tranquera: On previous form lines not on heavy, can go very close today at weights. Don’t dismiss at all!
Rustana: Huge run last start when blocked for runs and then blocked again. Can run very well today if gets run.
Oh Teary Me: Not good enough on recent form.
Sapphire Princess: Can’t win at Cranny so not winning here.
Confidence 65%
Quaddie Leg Four: 2, 3, 10, 11
Strategy: Spot on Maggie looks the one to back here while Tranquera looks the overs and value in the race.
Please Note:
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