Welcome to The Profits form guide for Moonee Valley on 14 February 2014. A fairly interesting card is in order and there are clouds over Melbourne as I write this, so I’m not sure what to expect ground wise. There may be some readjustments before 6pm if it doesn’t go the way I expect with the weather. Huge day to come tomorrow as well so don’t go too hard tonight with the higher confident tomorrow! I don’t see anything at huge odds that justifies being Best Value, so my 3 main bets for the night feature at the top. Two of those do have savers in their races, so look at those. As always, I hope your form matches up with mine! Good luck and happy punting!
Best Bet
Moonee Valley Race 5 Mambo Lady
Next Best
Moonee Valley Race 4 Prettyhappyaboutit
Next Next Best
Moonee Valley Race 8 Lonhtime
Hobart Cup Tip
Epingle was my tip on Sunday and there is no reason why I would change.
As suggested on Sunday, Gee Gee’s La Quita is the value of the race.
Moonee Valley Quaddie
Quaddie Leg One: 2, 3
Quaddie Leg Two: 3, 4, 5, 6
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 4, 5, 8, 11
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 4, 6, 10
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters Paradise – http://www.puntersparadise.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Moonee Valley Race 1
Only two horses with form to go off from here. As you know, I can’t tip here. London Lolly deserves to be favourite on first up run. Hayes is due a 2YO winner so see how they look in the yard.
Moonee Valley Race 2
Maiden race with no ‘follow’ or ‘blackbook’ horses. On form Argos deserves to be favourite but Barbaresco looks decent value on the E/W.
Moonee Valley Race 3
The worst kind of maiden. Filly only with 5 runners with no form!
The only two in this race I could be near are I’m An OutofTowner who disappointed last start going back and they crawled out the front. B3 surely they push further forward today.
Godiva Rock is the other obvious runner. 1.5L 3rd in Blue Diamond and hasn’t shown a lot since.
Not looking any deeper into this one.
Confidence 60%
Strategy: I’m An Outoftowner E/W.
Moonee Valley Race 4
Royal Bender: Is she going well enough this prep? Had nearly a month off and Weir has been getting a few of these types to turn it around this prep. Showed enough last start and will bec lose enough today off 58kg.
Umgeton: How will she return today? I don’t have her rating well enough to beat all of these home at the weights today adn even though she gets a sit from barrier 1 on my map, I’ll take her on.
Prettyhappyaboutit: Very winable race today considering the step back in class. Won first up here over 950m, close 2nd next run… then next two runs have been strong. Weighted well with the claim. Maps to sit 1 out 1 back or outside the leader which is fine. Hard to beat.
Athenian Girl: Was keen on her on Saturday in the last race to go close at a big price but was scratched. Can sit out the front or back, goes well at both spots. Weight is hte only issue today. Go close.
Lamingtons: First two runs this prep were very solod but last two runs have been average at best. Maps to lead. Weighted well as always. Finds ways to lose it in the final 50m.
Lateva: Showed potential two preps back. Returned average last prep for one run when had breathing issues. Could be something good today and trialed well. Omen bet… horse is out of Valentine’s Gift…
Comments: Warning sides if Lateva is backed hard late. Would be savering if this does happen. Hard to go past Prettyhappyaboutit today while Athenian Girl will go close.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Prettyhappyaboutit to win. Saver on Lateva.
Moonee Valley Race 5
Pindan Pearl: Equal weight today with Mambo Lady and lost by close to 2 lengths. Worse barrier today also. Hard to see winning this based off last start.
Mambo Lady: Ran home well and just missed last start. Weighted well. Maps well from barrier 4 as well to take the lead. If the rail is on, very hard to beat.
Tudor Armov: Always runs a good race but hasn’t won since 2YO maiden win. Much harder race today I’d suggest than last two runs but should be suited by up in distance. Maps well but only issue for me is weight today against these off previous runs.
Dancing Darci: Won an average race last start in the country. Thrown in the deep end. Don’t have her in this class.
Blue Eyes: Only run in a maiden and didn’t show us anything.
Comments: Hard to pass up Mambo Lady today. Looks a good price as well on ratings.
Confidence 85%
Quaddie Leg One: 2, 3
Strategy: Mambo Lady to Win
Moonee Valley Race 6
Jelly Baby: Lost a plate last start but still ran on well. Down in class today but not really if you ask me. Weighted ok after claims. Maps further back than I’d want her. Can run ok.
Ali Vital: Meets Aggregator 2kg better off today for 2.5L. Continues to run well this prep and can’t be ignored.
Alfiler: Last start ran home well but couldn’t sustain the run. Angelology probably would be going close here so form lines look ok.
Like A Carousel: Last prep put in some huge runs in much classier races than this. First two runs were over too short a distances in maiden races, he couldn’t win them. Up in class big time and in distance is the advantage. Price looks unders today.
Purrsistency Pays: On previous runs doesn’t look classy enough for this the maiden winner. No thanks.
Hezacruiser: Will be leading this up. Last three runs have been ok but in worse class than this race. Will find it hard to win without a very strong leader bias today.
Monte Carlo: Hard to know what to make of this one. Last two runs over kind of similar distances were in much easier company and couldn’t get closer than 3rd. Only won a maiden. 6 YRs old.. no thanks.
Pole Dancing: Can’t see her measuring up to this class.
Grand Dette: Probably better over further than this.
Comments: Tough race. A few chances.. should a maiden be the $2.7 fav? Not sure.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg Two: 3, 4, 5, 6
Strategy: Alfiler E/W
Moonee Valley Race 7
Sinhala: Average all prep but actually ran home very well last start closer to the front than normal. Equal class and down 2kg today… Angels Beach would be $1.40 here today. Major issue is barrier and up in distance.
Love of Liberty: Ran poorly first up. Sit further forward todeay but distance is a concern.
Precious Gem: Two runs this prep both had merit. Weighted well enough today and maps well enough.
Arena Rock: Run last start was solid. Barrier hurts today.
Milkwood: Inside barrier. Weighted ok but hard to see winning off first up run.
Zazparella: Maps very well today. Showed nothing first up. Last prep runs were ok.. but wants more rain.
Deeming: Gone close last two starts but just been catlike and not won. Based on those, can go close from barrier.
Affetto: Showed us something special last prep at Bendigo from the back. Going to be a long way back today but if they sit her a little forward today.. could run real well.
Jade Raider: Maps well today from an outside barrier. Weighted ok. She always runs well at distance. This class though?
Tunsia Traveller: Just ignore last two runs and rate on maiden win. Can win.
Comments: I think this race is much wider than the favourites. There are a few with big chances. I can’t go past Sinhala today based on last start. If she has been trained for the 1600m and repeats last start, goes well.
Confidence 60%
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 4, 5, 8, 11
Strategy: Sinhala to win. Precious Gem 2nd pick.
Moonee Valley Race 8
Sweet As Bro: Last start run at Seymour was super impressive. The time was solid. Can improve again today. Needs to get midfield today.
Taiyoo: Ran 2nd to Trust in a Gust 5 runs back. Since then hasn’t shown as much. last start did get the win well placed at the bool. Will map back.
Under The Leaner: Just ignore last start run. Doesn’t win out of turn. Can run a good race.
Air Striker: Ran home well last start off a leader won race. Maps to sit further forward.
Al Ragno: Hard to see a win off last two runs.
Lonhtime: Last two runs have been very solid. Maps to win.
Sea of Choice: Weithed ok today compared to Sweet As Bro but can’t see making up the distance today.
Got To Win: Hard to rate last start run. Poor time.
Littlebitaluck: Hard to see him making up the 3L+ distance today.
Our Swagman: Rate the previous runs with First Print and Saint or Sinner winning or running well since. Maps forward and should go close.
Comments: A few chances but the top two look the ones to follow here.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 4, 6, 10
Strategy: Backing Lonhtime. Saver Sweet As Bro.
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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