Welcome to The Profits form for Moonee Valley Friday 4 October 2013. We are spoiled for choice this weekend with some HUGE races tomorrow. But that doesn’t mean we can’t have fun tonight. There are four KEY races (all part of the Quaddie) that include horses of talent worth looking at. As always, I hope your form matches up with mine. Good luck and happy punting!
Best Bet
Moonee Valley Race 6 Holder Sunset
Next Best
Moonee Valley Race 8 Xavi
Best Value
Moonee Valley Race 5 Little Favours
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 5, 6
Quaddie Leg Two: 2, 3, 9, 10
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 2, 6, 9, 10
Quaddie Leg Four: 2, 4, 9, 12
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means a speculation pick.
Moonee Valley Race 1
Good luck matching up the form lines here. There are some fairly handy runners here.
The one that stands out after 3kg claim for me is Charnzel. There looks to be too many going for the lead here today which should ensure a strong tempo… she can position well enough and just swoop them up late at big odds.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: on the E/W with Charnzel
Moonee Valley Race 4
Tough race on paper. Very hard to always match up a 3000m race. Rowland was disappointing last start but heavily down in grade today only up 1.5kg after claim and back onto a surface that suits. Previous four runs would make him go very close and looks the value of the race at the prices.
Confidence 65%
Strategy: Small E/W Rowland
Moonee Valley Race 5
Lankan Rupee: The quality runner of the race. Won first up in first prep and last prep was only fair first up but did do a lot wrong. Weighted super well in this class first up. All the speed is outside him and he could find the fence out the front or at worst 1 back the rail. Rates to win.
Rifleman: Won 2 of 3 first up and goes well at the track. Maps perfectly from barrier 3 and will be there at the end.
Far Horizons: Won’t measure up going off last prep runs. Hasn’t won since 2011. Has been off a while but is 10!
Black Jack Boy: Beat a quality runner last start but this is much harder. Weighted ok but probably better if wetter.
Little Favours: The question mark in the race. Last five runs have been very solid and proved herself over 800m as well. 2L 3rd to Better Than Ready last prep and won very well first up. If Barrier 1 today, would be half the quote. Tricky barrier the issue.
Ready As Elle: Went close first up at Mornington when blocked for a run. Won previous two runs at this distance but up 4.5kg from those runs. Still a massive chance.
Paaratte Pat: Last win was at course and distance. Been going back this prep which doesn’t suit. Needs to go forward. Not sure they will.
Oamaru Princess: Going forward from outside barrier. Weighted well but on last two runs not sure is best here.
My Option: Last prep was progressive… never won first up is an issue and this looks much harder than normal. Did win at track last prep at least.
Shiso: Some ‘ok’ runs last prep but in this class? No.
Comments: Looks to be a great race on paper. Many chances but you have to go off those who have Listed experience.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 5, 6
Strategy: Very happy to be betting on Little Favours and Lankan Rupee.
Moonee Valley Race 6
Royal Bender: Will be going back. Didn’t show much first up to suggest can win this but this is certainly easier company. Never won from 9 tries at track.
Members Joy: Wouldn’t be surprised to see them try and position her midfield today. Goes well at the distance and has the turn of foot required to win.
Halle Rocks: Best run last prep was when sitting forward. Hasn’t won since 2012 is the massive issue but this is her distance. Has won 3 from 4 first up and never missed a place. Boss jumps on is interesting. Could be value.
Oamaru Rose: Good win first up and ran well since but needs it wet.
Catered: Last prep ended very well with two strong wins from the back of the field. Probably needs further but can you risk her?
Dashing Shadow: Weighted poorly today is main issue. Will be there at the line as always but should find a few too good.
Tykook: Runs ok first up and at distance and track. Went close two preps back here on two occasions. Tough getting in from outside barrier today but weighted well enough if at best.
Holder Sunset: The big chance today. WIll go forward and try and lead all the way. Weighted to win off last start run at Caulfield.
Lady Searcy: 5L win over Bonne Nuit in 2012 looks interesting. Last prep won and ran close 2nd. Quality mare.
Lateva: 1.5L 4th to Vain Queen looks solid enough and continued to go well last prep. May just get trapped a little too far back today though and we know Nolen loves to take a rails run here.
Comments: Going with the front runners today. There will be a wall of horses between our two picks and the good ones positioning middle to back. Let’s hope they don’t burn out infront which it doesn’t appear they will.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie Leg Two: 2, 3, 9, 10
Strategy: Backing Holden Sunset to win with a smaller bet Lady Searcy
Moonee Valley Race 7
Bia Diamond: Good horse but continues to have bad luck getting blocked or just having stuff go wrong. Will have EVERY chance today at Flemington. Seems to like the longer straight and off 57kg this looks winable.
Freezy: Very progressive last prep with wins over Bec Said No Credit as a good example. Won at this distance and should run well.
Zoomania: Not going close off last 3 runs.
Sinhala: Good win on heavy last start.. probably wanting it wetter off that.
Stella Lante: First three runs this prep over in Adelaide were decent but just not good enough. Needs to improve to win this.
La Zuma: Weighted ok today but others look more progressive.
Princess Rock: Good run first up and will appreciate further distance. Weighted nicely today.
Maraatib: Won a fairly easy maiden last start over the 1600m distance. Won 145k so not just a maiden winner. Has ability.
Inflatable Miss: Needs easier than this.
Wicked Enchantress: Hard to see progression.
Comments: Dare I Ask has improved significantly this prep and seems to be wanting the extra distance. Looks a good price.
Confidence 65%
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 2, 6, 9, 10
Strategy: Bia Diamond with the claim stands out from Princess Rock.
Moonee Valley Race 8
Altonio: Looking for further and is better deep into runs.
Electric Fusion: Only a maiden winner but has 200k in prize money for a reason. Is better over further but this is still a pet distance. Weighted fairly today but will have to come from a long way back.
Xavi: Very strong run first up at Mornington when over an unsuitable distance. Down in class, up in distance and up in weight. Will position further forward. Expect him to go very very close today.
Moulin Bleu: Looking for further on last few runs it seems. Not up to this class.
Leveraction: Weighted ok today off decent last two runs. Maps to get every chance but not sure he is THIS good.
Severn Road: Not going well enough this prep to measure up in this.
El Divine: Ignore last start and look to two back behind Desert Wizard. Looks ok coming in here.
Esprit Rossa: Fairly disappointing firs ttwo runs but last start improved to win in easy class. Hard to see measuring up just yet.
Providential: Last two runs in much easier company have been solid enough. Testing materil and not sure he is up to city grade.
Sandhill Warrior: Hard horse to get a hold off. Quaddie chance if runs upt ot two starts back beating Stella Lante.
Comments: Xavi positions the best while Electric Fusion is a jet and will be coming hard late.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie Leg Four: 2, 4, 9, 12
Strategy: Backing Xavi with smaller bet Electric Fusion.
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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