Welcome to The Profits form guide for Morning Cup Day 12 February 2014. A tough card today but I’m very excited to see several of these races. Watch for leader bias throughout the card and adjust for the key races. As always, I hope your form matches up with mine! Good luck and happy punting!
Best Bet
Mornington Race 2 Nella Fantasia
Next Best
Mornington Race 5 Churchill Dancer
Best Value
Mornington Race 9 He’s Your Man
Best Place Bet
Mornington Race 7 Aashiq (Best available at time of posting $9)
Mornington Quaddie
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 2, 5, 6, 8
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 3, 4, 5, 8, 12
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 10
Quaddie Leg Four: 3, 8, 14, 16
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters Paradise – http://www.puntersparadise.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Mornington Race 2
Chelembra: Ran well enough first up and rates well today. Will be ridden for luck.
Kuaima: Ran poorly last start and based on that run, plus up 3kg today, No way I could be near this horse today.
Riviera Red: First up run was impressive from the best down the Flemington straight. Up 6.5kg today and back in class. From barrier 3 maps to take a sit. Can win. Is a top 2 chance.
Lamingtons: Probably just ignore last start when galloped on. Wide barrier again today hurts. On three back run is in this.
Navorina: Last start went back when normally maps further forward over the 950m. Ran home well for 3rd in the Minah race. Up 3kg today.. probably over the odds?
Prussian Power: Shown nothing all prep. Can’t have here.
Nella Fantasia: Won by 4 lengths last start at Cranny beating home some fairly average horses but the time was solid. Down 2kg today up in class. Maps to win.
Kentucky Dreaming: Will get back and run on… is he this class? On recent form, no.
Comments: Riviera Red and Nella Fantasia are both black bookers. Very happy to play around just these two.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Nella Fantasia to win. Saver on Riviera Red.
Mornington Race 5
Churchill Dancer: 2nd to Trust In A Gust twice this prep. 3rd to Beanabeu down the straight at Flemington, 5th to paximadia by 2.5L. This is his easiest race for a while. 1200m Suits and weighted to win off 58kg.
Consorting: First up today. Won first up last start at course and distance in easier company. Ran home very well last start at Flemington over 1400m on a dead track. Not sure will get a dead track, is up 5.5kg and is back down to 1200m. A few things against today plus long way back.
Under The Louvre: Quality runner at 2YO. Probably just ignore last prep run and look forward. Can run very well today. Barrier a huge issue, will go back.
Red Spyder: Maiden only winner only down 1kg today. was a Caulfield Maiden and time was good for him. Can run well.
Leaps and Bounds: Three back run was solid, two back just got lost over the 1000m and then last start was very unlucky not to win at MV. Down to 52.5kg today and from barrier 8, they will try push forward and could even try and lead. Looks the overs in the race.
Comments: Really competitive affair. I have only reviewed the main chances from my notes, happy to take on a few of the progressive types and go for the classy runners back in class today.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Churchill Dancer to win. Smaller bet on Leaps and Bounds.
Mornington Race 7
Little Bro: Absolutely a good thing beaten last start at the Valley. Maps well again today from barrier 5. Down in weight and meets Daybreak much better at weights. Gets a run, probably wins.
Charles in Charge: Slowly improving this prep with two good wins in a row. Up in weight 2kg today and he is a good chance today. Maps outside of Little Bro for mine.
Aashiq: The value of this race for sure. His run two back was super impressive at the valley. Last start just too far back and not really even ridden out. Barrier 7 maps to sit further forward today and will be hitting that line very well. Big overs.
Street Savvy: Couldn’t win the 1800m first up in Melbourne, ran well. Back to 1600m today looks suitable. Weighted nicely.
Hamam: Sneaks under the radar here. Won a decently well run race at course last start over similar distance. Previous start ran well suffering lacerations and previous race also ran well. In well at weights and will be ridden for luck with the right jock. Maps well.
Maphelane: Ran home well behind Hamam last start and was blocked for runs twice. probably should have won? Over the odds today.
Comments: Fairly open race. I really like the odds on Little Bro today while Aashiq is huge overs. Should be closer to $10 shot here maximum.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 2, 5, 6, 8
Strategy: Little Bro to win. E/W on Aashiq.
Mornington Race 8
Richie’s Vibe: Got a bit lucky to get the run last start but finished strongly to run down MOC who was 3-wide the while trip. MOC won the Group 1 on the weekend as we know. Maps out the back again and will have to pass a wall of horses to win. This is much easier class and he always goes close. Looks overs at current odds of $5.50+. I just couldn’t back a backmarker like him without knowing the bias on a track like Mornington. If plays fair first 4-5 races, then get on.
Under The Eiffel: Goes well first up and goes well over this distance. Last prep was up a long time and won some solid races. Probably wants further but weighted nicely if returns at best.
It Is Written: Blocked for runs quite a ew times last start at MV. meets Richie’s Vibe 2kg better off today and from barrier 4 he maps to win this.
Zamorar: First up form is solid enough. Better runs have come on the wetter tracks but should be no issue today. Goes well in this clas of race. Maps ok today from barrier 3. If at best on return can go close.
Knoydart: Wide barrier today is the issue for this progressive runner. Won both races this prep and suited by 1200m. Will need to push forward and get a run but if he does, he will be hard to beat.
Bel Thor: Looking for further.
Freereturn: Didn’t show anywhere near his best last prep. Goes well first up and looks weighted well today all things considered. maps well.
Don’t Get Excited: Outside barrier today hurts a bit. Ridden too cold last start and needs to slot in around midfield today at worst. Weighted ok and looks a good chance.
Undeniably: Others look better suited here today and last start run was very poor. Couldn’t have.
Hazard: How will she return? Interesting they go for such a classy race. If runs up to 1.5L 3YOF 1200m win two preps back firs tup, then she goes VERY well from barrier today. I rate her highly.
Borsay: Ran well last start at big odds and just got the win on a leader biased track at Caulfield. Wide barrier means hard work early but weighted well enough. Could look winner at 200m.
Counted: Saw merit in her run last start behind Richie’s Vibe. Weighted well enough today but probably not good enough?
My Survivor: Weighted poorly today compared to Borsay and don’t think he is good enough for this.
Tanjil: Two back win isn’t the worst form lines. Could sneak a place with luck.
Comments: One of the toughest races of the day. Watch for leader bias if you are keen on Richie’s Vibe. If Hazard looks well in the yard, I may up my bet size, I have a big opinion of this horse from it’s 3YO career.
Confidence 65%
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 3, 4, 5, 8, 12
Strategy: Small bet It Is Written. Smaller bet on Hazard.
Mornington Race 9
Travolta: Giving pretty much all of these runners 6kg today apart from POP and OS who gives 5 and 5.5kg. Sure his last four runs have been a win or just losing (2 of those by 0.2 and 0.1L loses – last start 0.1L win)… but this is another step up in class if you ask me. The horses in this one are far beyond those he beat the last three runs. Will push forward from barrier 12… will he sit outside or cross over Laidback Larry? Surely the two Waterhouse runners have to try control the pace. Can go well but I’m willing to take on at the weight and price today.
Prince of Penzance: Where do they sit him today? Last start from barrier 1 surprised when position further forward than expected at Caulfield… ran home well for the win. Weighted well today but untested over the distance.. but previous runs suggest no issues. Are they running on? If so, he is every chance.. if it’s leader biased, the first 4 are the favourites outside of him.
Oregon Spirit: Ran better than expected last start at Caulfield behind POP but wasn’t good enough. Maps better today from 6 and will sit further forward. Is he good enough to beat all of these? Not sure for me. Is going well enough?
Cooldini: Caught the eye flashing home last start from simply too far back. Goes best at these distances. Will sit further forward today and is a serious contender.
Gottino: Probably just ignore on last start and rate on previous runs. Weighted ok today compared to a few others. Needs luck from barrier.
He’s Your Man: I left him for last in doing my preview. He wants this extra distance today. take a look back to his peak run last prep over in UK with a 0.2L defeat by Lost in the Moment over 2400m in WFA-LR class. Lost In The Moment would be a $2 pop here with good reason. Is he going as well as those two runs before shipping out here? Debateable. He finished infront of Laidback Larry last start and I do know he wants the extra distance. The speed will be run to suit as well I feel and meets POP 1kg better off today.
Durnford: Last few runs have been much better than previous runs. Way up in distance today is an issue for mine. I don’t see it today.
Instrumentalist: Done nothing wrong this prep. Much better weighted today compared to Angola for two back defeat. Won 2 of last 3 and previous two to that was a close 0.3L defeat and 1.3L win. Suited by this distance but doesn’t look a world beater.
Macedonian: On first tow runs this prep, I can’t see this here. Looks to just be going around for the run for mine.
Laidback Larry: If won the POP race, he would have gone into this as an odds on favourite… but the pressure won on our the front and they just did too much at the wrong times. Ignore that run and rate on previous he has shown this prep. Will he get the 2400m is the issue for me!
Angola: I was really impressed with his win at Flemington last start. THe issue for me today is the wide barrier (maps to still get a run just), and giving 3kg to Gottino today. Probably comes into poorly weighted in reality. Can run well.
Altonio: Based on last few runs, I can’t see him getting a place.
Comments: Expecting a front-runner dominated race here. Quite a few chances but I keep coming back to He’s Your Man over this distance. He is proven.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 10
Strategy: He’s Your Man 2 units to place 1 unit to win.
Mornington Race 10
The favourite Not A Llama looks the real deal on last few runs. Hard to ignore and the price looks justified. Barrier only issue. The Bowler the main danger. Songpsur impressed enough last start as well from start to finish winning.
Quaddie Leg Four: 3, 8, 14, 16
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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