Welcome to The Profits form guide for Rosehill and Moonee Valley on 29 March 2014. The weather up in Sydney has presented us with a day that could throw up a fair bit of value, so the Quaddie has gone very wide today. There are also some sensational odds on offer for the mud lovers and I’m confident we can have our first profitable Sydney day of the Autumn with some good odds on offer. The racing at Moonee Valley has also given us some good confidence bets. As always, I hope your form matches up with mine! Good luck and happy punting!
Sydney Best Bet
Rosehill Race 9 Epingle
Delivered two times in a row for us down in Tasmania in Group company. From out the front in the first run, she was dominant and can repeat that effort today from front to midfield. Even if she goes out the back if the swoopers are being suited, she is a massive chance. The price is just simply crazy and she should be half the quote. Big overs and expect her to win this.
Melbourne Best Bet
Moonee Valley Race 8 Solsay
Save the best to last. Solsay is as genuine as they come. I would be even more confident if Beriman was riding Solsay today.. but that doesn’t matter as much with a front runner. Back to this class today from Listed company after just missing in a tight finish and weighted to win today.
Sydney NEXT Best Bet
Rosehill Race 1 Opinion
We are getting slightly over $2 for Opinion today and this appeals well over the correct odds for me. I really do have this as a two horse race and I think Opinion is the real deal up in distance and on a heavier track.
Melbourne NEXT Best Bet
Moonee Valley Race 6 Sweet As Bro
Not sure I even have to explain this one to you guys. Just look at the form and look how well weighted Sweet As Bro is today! Any other week, he would come up our Best Bet of the meeting. We are certainly relying on Saint or Sinner to not make the field, but I expect this. The only thing that could ruin his chances is a slow tempo.. but I doubt that will occur with Keep Cool expected to lead. Big chance.
Sydney Best Each-Way All Day
Rosehill Race 5 Fast ‘N’ Rocking
The Melbourne horse each-way wasn’t suited very well last week in Bonaria, but Fast ‘n’ Rocking has the profile to run a huge race at big odds today. The stable seem very confident with the placement today and previous runs suggest the ground shouldn’t be an issue. The price is simply overs!
Melbourne Best Each-Way All Day
Moonee Valley Race 4 Scatcat
My jaw dropped when I saw the price for Scatcat. If you compare last prep runs to Just A Bullet, there is a big win and a 2kg different in Scatcat’s favour today. The price is just plane wrong. The horses first up run was very good and I put it down as a follow forward on my running sheet. #keen
Other value runners on the card today
Moonee Valley Race 6 Keep Cool
Rosehill Race 6 Irish Fling
Rosehill Race 7 Gordon Lord Byron
Rosehill Race 8 Savvy Nature
Runners who based on statistics are over their correct odds today and should give us a good run for our money.
Moonee Valley Quaddie
Quaddie Leg One: 2, 3, 5, 7
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 5, 9, 10, 12, 16
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 3, 6, 8, 11, 12
Quaddie Leg Four: 2, 3, 5, 12
Rosehill Quaddie
Quaddie Leg One: 3, 4, 6, 8, 11
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 2, 4, 6, 12
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 2, 4, 5, 7, 9
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 3, 6, 13
Promotions
Sportsbet
Money back up to $100 if your horse runs 2nd or 3rd in the George Ryder Stakes at Rosehill (Race 7) – first bet only.
Sportingbet
Money back if your runner doesn’t win, but finishes within a length of the winner in the Rosehill Guineas (max refund $100 – 1st bet only)
Ladbrokes
Run 2nd, 3rd or 4th in the Rosehill Guineas? Your win stake will be refunded as a bonus bet of equal value ($50 max – first bet only)
Bookmaker
Run 2nd to the SP favourite in Race 2 or 3 at Rosehill? Stake money back as a Bonus Bet (Maximum refund of $50, one bet per race only)
Betfair – Power of Five Promotion
You can Opt into Two of the Five promotions.
1. Rosehill Guineas Refund – Money back if your horse runs second or third to Shamus Award (Max stake $50 – First Best of Five bet only)
2. Boban Backup – Money back if Boban misses the top three in the George Ryder Stakes (Max stake $50 – First Best of Five bet only)
3. Rosehill Quaddie Boost – Get a 25% boost on your quaddie winnings at Rosehill (Max boost $200)
Unibet
Run 2nd or 3rd in the Rosehill Guineas? Money back up to $100 (first bet only)!
PalmerBet
Money back for 2nd or 3rd in all Sydney Group Ones this Autumn Carnival (max back up to $100) – *Must be 8 starters in race, only applies to your first Fixed Odds bet in race*
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters Paradise – http://www.puntersparadise.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Moonee Valley Race 1
Unseen 2YOs? I’ll act as if this race isn’t even being run.
Strategy: What race 1?
Moonee Valley Race 2
Elite Elle: Had every chance last start at Moonee Valley and gave up much easier than I would have expected considering the sectionals. Up 0.5kg but down in class today, barrier suits and will get a very good run. Massive issue again if a Good track though? Never won or placed from 3 starts. Will be a Dead to Good IMO and that isn’t suitable.
Octavia: Ended last prep rather disappointingly. Trialed well and off 54.5kg today is rated to win at the weights. 1200m win over A Time for Julia last prep in similar class works out well. MASSIVE issue with this distance though? 0 wins 3 places from 5 attempts but does go well at this track and on good or dead surfaces. Never won first up either!
Siwa Lady: On many speedmaps is expected to take a sit today… but from barrier 1 if she jumps well and with 52kg, i see no reason why they wouldn’t try and lead with her. Last start win was good but beat much easier company. The testing material today.
Prettyhappyaboutit: Very disappointing last start at course over 950m being beaten 2.8L by Siwa Lady. 2kg worse off today also. Need to find an extra leg to win on all ratings today. Maps well though to have a good run.
Splash of Moet: Strong enough win first up at Bendigo beating Schumacher in an easier class race than this. Down 1.5kg today and last prep ran a 2.8L 4th to Karacatis in listed company over 1100m. Shown she has potential but has to prove it here today.
Legcut: She showed she has X factor the past two preps continuing to impress. Did get a win first up last prep in easier company and did go on to win at course and distance off 0.5kg more than this today. That company was much easier though than this… does she find her best on rain affected ground? I’d say so. Still a good chance.
It’s Poets Day: Forgive run first up? I’m not so sure. Showed last prep she is best on a Slow track. I can’t have here 2nd up at weights.
Comments: Siwa Lady looks a big chance I’m very happy to have something small on after a good win last start.
Confidence 65%
Strategy: Small bet on Siwa Lady.
Moonee Valley Race 3
Not going to even write this one up. Signoff SHOULD win by lengths here today. May be some value in the ‘win by more than 2 lengths’ markets, but I couldn’t play anything here either way.
Moonee Valley Race 4
Everage: Two runs this prep have been average at best. Back in class here today and only up 1kg after claims. Maps well enough from barrier 1, but has to find MUCH more today considering the track condition when she has only ever won on Heavy. Frankly, Can’t understand why they would be running here and not back up in Sydney!
Scatcat: Showed she is a serious horse last prep but beating some fairly good horses. First up ran VERY well behind Rose of Falvelon in harder company than this today. Where does she sit in running? Her eye-catching start to finish 5.5L win last prep is still stuck in my mind.. but over the 1000m I suspect she is better ridden with a sit. She is $17 here while Just A Bullet who she beat last prep by 1.5L and is 2kg better off against today is $5. The price is crazy overs. Even better confidence on a Good track.
Just A Bullet: Crazy unders today when you consider all the factors to do with Scatcat. I can’t have at the price and don’t need to say any more.
Miss Steele: The value runner of the race considering last start, blocked for runs, did a lot run yet finished off well when wide. Way back in class today here, she is weighted so well and maps well also. Huge chance.
Hill Spy: Looks the unders today first up. Yes, he showed us a win in 2YO-68 grade then ran a place in 3Y-GP3 then nothing after that. Maps to be far back from wide barrier also.
Selectify: Firs tup run was very average. Will appreciate less weight, but has to find a good 2 lengths on that run. Not for me.
Tankster: Had his chances first up when showed nothing. Hard to see turning this form around today in this grade.
Ilgattino: Average form in quality races last prep. Could have trained on but seems to be wanting further than this.
Menage A Charge: Ran home well and just missed 2nd up. Weighted nicely today and a chance even from a bad barrier.
Neat Feat: Got the win here three back over a lesser distance but since has led and had every chance. Weight helps but others appeal more. Barrier also sucks.
Moparee: Probably over her correct odds here today being a Magnus 3YO. They seem to handle this track very well. Last start run over this distance just missing was impressive enough at the weights to go well here.
Comments: A fair bit of value on offer here. Scatcat, Miss Steele and Moparee are all over the odds.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Sizable bet on Scatcat E/W. Lesser bets on Miss Steele and Moparee to win.
Moonee Valley Race 5
Goldslick: Went around as unders last start after impressing first up. Equal class but up 6kg today. Ouch. No thanks.
Hazard: HUGE win last start. This mare has something most others don’t, heart! Goes well on Good or Dead and is weighted to win again today. Barrier 6 should see her sit 1 out 1 back or even on the speed which will suit. The up in distance is a bonus also. Had no right to win last start but got there. Hard to beat.
Hai Lil: Up 2kg today which hurts giving Hazard 1.5kg. Distance increase helps. Will be far back but loves this track and the outside shouldn’t be too bad. Can win.
Twilighting: First up run was ‘ok’ but didn’t impress. Hard to see the turn around today of 2-3 lengths.
May’s Dream: The market first up said she had 0 chance but I thought her run was good for 4th. Up 323 metres today should suit her but she will definetly need a bit of luck from barrier 1 today.
Fuddle Dee Duddle: Going poorly this prep. Can’t have.
Double Dee: Continued on with her impressive form from last prep with a nice win in easier company than this. Down 4kg today and maps perfectl from barrier 4 today. Hard to pass.
Serene Tanie: No form to suggest could even place or f4 here.
Demeanour: Not the worst in this race but certainly not hte best. Couldn’t win a BM-58 off 54kg… down to 52kg today.. should probably be off 46kg to place.
Comments: Only four chances for mine in this race. I’m happy to take Hai Lil on due to the weight with other runners, but can’t leave out of Quaddie. May’s Dream maps poorly for mine here but is certainly the X factor… I like the two progressive horses in Hazard and Double Dee here.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie Leg One: 2, 3, 5, 7
Strategy: Hazard to win. Lesser bet on Double Dee.
Moonee Valley Race 6
Banca Mo: Will be closer to the speed today up to 1600m. I was a little disappointed last start by the way he finished off the race considering the time ran wasn’t overly slow out front. Has never won 2nd up is an interesting concern to have also today. New jockey on to claim down from the 61kg is another concern. Could the track be a Good track by racetime? Did win three runs back on good so shouldn’t be as much of a concern but surely wants more give?
Shoreham: Average at best first up. Weighted ok today but showed us a lack of anything with that run. I just can’t have here today at the distance from this barrier.
Stipulate: Fairly disappointing first up considering the wraps on the horse and being a placegetter in WFA-G2 over in the UK. Hayes believes he has trained on horse and barrier helps, but others appeal more to me.
Moudre: Last prep last 5 runs didn’t get closer than 3.8L, but that was over further distances. He actually has a really good record at this distance and goes well first up. I can’t discount him but the booking of Arnold puts me off a bit which suggests to me Payne didn’t want the ride?!
Le Roi: Did a few things wrong first up in similar class over the 1600m in Adelaide last start. Previous prep did win a Group 3 on a slow track… but has form on all track types. Is he actually proven in this grade against these lvel of horse? I think so. Maps well from 6.
Niblick: Showed nothing first two runs this prep. No thanks.
Bass Strait: Sensational run last start at Bendigo in what could be called a harder race than this. Will be ridden cold again today confirmed by Hayes which will require a huge effort in a field this size to come so wide and to win. Has the form to do so though.
Bel Thor: Flashed home late but just didn’t have the heart to get there last start. Is he a better horse on a slow/heavy track or is dead/good fine for him? I think he is better over further than this, but the last start run showed me he is back in form and can run well today.
Keep Cool: You know I love him and think he has had a great career. At his best, he was a Listed/Group 3 level horse. He goes well first up and is good at this distance… but his best is 2000m. Not a great deal of speed today in the race, but his best is shown when he runs a strong tempo. Off 55kg, his best has been off low weights as well. A win actually wouldn’t surprise me, but I certainly couldn’t tip him on top.
Sweet As Bro: Slow pace last start in a harder race than this.. he ran home well from the back but was never a chance the way the race was run. Down 5kg today after claims, he is absolutely weighted a treat. Barrier 8 will have him about 5 back on the outside, but he will be in a winning position the whole race and as long as Katie gets him out and rolling early, he should have a good enough spot to contest this one. BIG chance.
Lord Wimble: Last three runs have been horrible. Very disappointing. Will run better off the low weight but I still couldn’t see this turn around today.
Shiny Buttons: Payne has chosen to take this run over Moudre which is interesting. Down 4kg today after a nice enough run in the Echuca Cup… but never won at this distance.. probably wants further and this might be her horse goin on to SA for a cup style race?
Comments: A fairly open race, but Sweet As Bro at the weights stands out like a sore thumb. He is probably 2kg better off than any horse in this race on ratings. Keep Cool is a massive chance out the front today especailly if I’m Jake doesn’t get a run
Confidence 85%
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 5, 9, 10, 12, 16
Strategy: Sweet As Bro to win. Smaller bet Keep Cool (will be putting a hedge in as well in-play at low odds).
Moonee Valley Race 7
Honey Steel’s Gold: Back in class today after a fairly average run in harder company last start. Down in class and off 55kg seems reasonable. Don’t dismiss.
Scalaire: Been winning in much lesser company the last three wins over in Adelaide and this is a big step up. Weighted ok today. May struggle to get a positive position today from barrier and be further back than hoping.. above $10 for a reason IMO.
Bardem: First up run was eye-catching, next start poor then last start he finished off well enough. Key may be needs a dead track today to win? Weighted ok but will have to pass a few to win.
Crime Fighter: Got the win in a very poor R-64 last start, but the times were ok and he is weighted ok here today I guess. I just can’t have this big a jump in class.
Meticulously: Loves to set a hot tempo out front and last two starts have been solid without a win. Jump to 2040m is ‘interesting’ up in this class.
De Little Engine: Showed a lot of heart last start at Sandown coming from the back and winning very well. Probably wanting a longer straight but can’t be ignored based on that run!
Family Pride: Had to win last start to suggest he could win this today I’d suggest. Others preferred.
Street View: Out to required distance here today.. but is he any good? Couldn’t win two maidens this prep either… i’m not sold but can’t dismiss either in quaddie.
The Terricks: Beaten well by two other runners in this race the past two runs. Hard to have at weights even from a more positive barrier today.
Zedeel: Wide barrier hurts his chances today, but impressed enough last two starts to suggest he can run a nice enough race.
Calendar Lad: Wasn’t suited last start by being out the back. There is no way they take the same tactics here today and with Katie Mallyon booked for the ride, he is down 5kg here back in class. I get the feeling they may even try and lead today which I can’t see as a disadvantage. Big chance at odds.
Lord Anthenaeum: Slow to begin last start at Sandown but got into a nice position and finished off well enough as could have been expected. Weighted nicely today and barrier 2, expect him to be far enough forward.
Surging Wave: Promising horse who has disappointed both runs this prep. Hard to suggest backing him today on those two runs.
Akagera: Ran home fairly last two starts at Sandown but this is a much harder task.
Kansha: Weir runner who broke her maiden three back, ran a nice 4th to Honey Steel’s two back but not very well off at weights today.
Siegestor: Can’t see him getting a run and even if he does, not good enough on runs.
Comments: Horrible race. I give Calendar Lad a hope at good odds due to weights, but I honestly don’t know what tactics will be adopted. The horse showed he could lead over 1400m when he won his maiden off a slow tempo but that is different to a 2040m race at MV. Wide in the quaddie.
Confidence 60%
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 3, 6, 8, 11, 12
Strategy: Calendar Lad E/W
Moonee Valley Race 8
Lord Durante: Good horse, goes well at track. Never won at distance. Never won or placed first up. Poor barrier. No thanks.
Solsay: An absolute huge chance today. Loves the track, has great stats here. Loves dead or good tracks. Off 56.5kg after a 0.4L 3rd in Listed company here last start, absolutely weighted to win today. The only issue for mine is Beriman doesn’t get the ride due to suspension so we have to trust Whelan to get us around. Hard to resist these odds today.
Dee Bee Nine: Returned in easier class last start with a quality win at Oakbank. The time was sound enough. Down 1.5kg today after claims and he is right in this at the weights. Takes a sit today I suggest. Back to his best now?
Cascabel: Showed enough last start to suggest he could run a cheeky race today and place.
Freereturn: Could suggest he was unlucky not to win last start. Gave a very good run but just couldn’t get there. Down 1kg today but I thought a claim would be required to get the win clearly here today and it hasn’t been given. Back 100m also a concern? Has a very good record at track.
Ventic: Disappointed a little last start over in Adelaide when he probably should have been winning at the weights. Down 1.5kg today giving a few good things weight advantage. Up to 1200m is a big bonus.
Rebel Truce: Had every chance down in class last start over in Adelaide but couldn’t pull out the required time off a faster tempo. Will be a similar tempo today and he looks exposed.
Flyingconi: Goes ok but not great first up. Better over further than this and even better on a slower ground I’d suggest. Only missed a place at track 1 from 5 runs!
King Buddy: Meets Solsay 1.5kg better off today for a 2.8L defeat three back when blocked for runs. Last two runs have shown merit but expect him to be as far back today from barrier. Not sure he is good enough just yet.
Me Hungi: Never won at distance or first up. Just going around for the run i’d say.
Soros: Actually has a very good first up record and at distance record, but didn’t exactly excite us or blow us away last prep, especially at the end of it. Reports are he is going ok and has to be included in quaddie.
Sabres: I like this bloke, always have, he has won here before but 0 placing from 6 at this class. No thanks.
Comments: Solsay looks the best bet of the day for mine at the prices. Dee Bee Nine looks a saver job in this race.
Confidence 90%
Quaddie Leg Four: 2, 3, 5, 12
Strategy: Solsay to win. Saver Dee Bee Nine.
Rosehill Race 1
Opinion: The scratching of Junoob helps here but also doesn’t if you know what I mean. It really comes down to a two horse race between this bloke and The Offer. Opinion ran a super race last start against all odds with the surface condition and weights. The two keys today are the increase in distance and the heavy track, both should suit him here. Looks the bet today.
Gondokoro: Shown absolutely nothing this prep. Good heavy win in 3F-Gp1 last prep on slow, but isn’t this class this prep.
Tremec: Has won on slow and heavy previously but based on last start, no thanks.
The Offer: Runs very well on Heavy tracks with his best win in Listed company to date on a heavy last prep. Didn’t show us much over the 1400m first up though on a slow track but did finish alongside Opinion last start. The obvious danger.
Desert Jeuney: Never run on slow or heavy so hard to rate him exactl.. all I know is he is untested over this distance as well and that is too many queries for me.
Comments: Opinion should be winning today.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Opinion to win.
Rosehill Race 2
Short and sweet, not enough info to bet here.. but I would suggest the $10 on offer for Wilderness is value. Ground should be no issue today from what I’ve heard.
Rosehill Race 3
I’m just going to talk through this race with you due to a real lack form on Heavy in the race from a few runners. Aerobatics has won on heavy before which is a massive tick for a race like this. A tad disappointing last start if you ask me… so would need to have a big turn around on the track for me. Avoid Lightning flashed home from out the back and probably should have won if not blocked… 2 wins from 2 on slow but only run on heavy didn’t place.. but that is all punters will see.. the horse was 4-wide on the bend at Caulfield and ran a solid 2.4L 4th to Lady Melksham in the Cockram and LM is a genuine mudluck! Ironically the run previous Avoid Lighting.. won the Lightning Stakes on slow. The horse has NEVER won at this distance is an issue. Best over 1000m? Plucky Belle is a genuine group horse and showed that last prep with a 1400m solid win from the back while previous run was solid also. Two runs two wins on slow but no form on heavy.. Moody said she is going well enough to win but no ticked box on heavy. Meliora is a good horse but the key is a good track and even so isn’t going well at all. Recoinage looks a genuine chance at odds today. Last two runs have been super and continues to improve… but just seems to keep finding a few too good. Change of tactics today back to leading or sitting outside the leader could help. Has placed on heavy but only ever won on a good track a concern. Single Style has been found in the market with two wins on slow on the record and no wins on a good track suggesting she needs sting out. Last start run has merit but I thought a few others appealed more at the odds. Angel Bee was found out up in class last start but has won on slow and heavy so has to be considered. Shahad has the potential from last prep.. short priced fav winner first up and this is much harder. 1 run 1 loss on heavy.
Comments: I come back to Avoid Lightning as the key runner here on form while Plucky Belle is the main danger.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Avoid Lighting to win. Smaller bet Plucky Belle.
Rosehill Race 4
Some really classy runners going on to bigger and better things than this.. but with a Heavy track expected, I couldn’t even look into this race due to lack of wet form.
Strategy: Other races. Ignore this one.
Rosehill Race 5
Sidestep: Probably won’t sit so far back today. Proven on a slow track with a 2nd in the Slipper on it. Trialed well on slow previously also but no heavy track form on his record. First up run was very solid and will go close today.
Fast ‘N’ Rocking: Will be ridden cold today according to trainer. Ran home very well on slow in the slipper from the back and has won a trial on slow after that also. There was confident in Hayes voice when talking about his chances here today.
Boss Lane: Only run on Heavy was a 2YO 5L win… but how good was that race? Not good I suggest. Ran well enough last start behind Sidestep and we know he handles the wet. Maps well.
Bound For Earth: Unknown on heavy. Was fairly poor last two runs so hard to suggest here.
Northern Glory: 1 run 1 win on Heavy in 2YOF class. Since then has gone backwards. First up.
Sweet Kiss: 3 runs on heavy for a win (two runs back) and two placings. Is she in this class? I doubt it.
Flight Academy: Blocked for runs last start. Only one run ever on Slow and was well beaten by Cosmic Endeavour. Can’t see the win here.
Cosmic Endeavour: Rather disappointing last start but didn’t get the speed lane and was hampered in the straight. Only run on slow last start was impressive and expect a MUCH better showing today. Price looks overs.
Comments: Fast ‘N’ Rocking is crazy overs today. The horse ran 1.8L 5th in a 3Y-Gp3 first up and then beaten 5L by Not Listenintome 2nd up… who no horse in this race would get within 4L of. The strategy to ride him cold is the correct one today and while his form on wet may not appear to be there, for mine it is.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Fast ‘N’ Rocking 2 units to place 1 unit to win.
Rosehill Race 6
Bel Sprinter: Never run on a slow or heavy track before. Do they even run him? Was a very solid run 4th last start.
Famous Seamus: Ran home huge last start behind Villa Verde at huge odds. Much better weighted today as well and only run on Heavy was a win. Been found in the market today.
Rain Affair: Beaten at the 300m last two runs. Back to 1100m does suit him today and has a very very very good wet record… but is this the same horse that won on slow and heavy tracks with ease? I’m not convinced. I guess you are getting the right price to find out today though.
Sessions: Never run on slow or heavy previously. Ran on well without impressing me last start.
Temple of Boom: Loves it wet and is probably due to go close today at the weights. Very well weighted. Never placed at track a concern from 2 tries… but wet wet wet suits.
See The World: Last start ran a close 2nd to Territory off a huge weight on a slow track. Much better weighted today and has won on heavy before. Win wouldn’t shock but it also would.
Tiger Tees: Average run firs tup but weighted much better. Goes well on slow and heavy.
Villa Verde: Close 2nd only run on slow. Never run on heavy. Only fair in at the weights and I think is exposed today. Happy to oppose.
Satin Shoes: Never run on heavy and didn’t place only run on heavy. Not this class.
Irish Fling: Never run on heavy and has placed only run on slow. Best runs seen on Good. 52kg does have her in well at the weights which is bloody hard to ignore for a GROUP 1 winner over 1200m. Over the correct odds today surely.
Kencella: Continues to impress this prep. Got another win in a Group 3 this time. Down 3kg to 52kg… is he this classy? McDonald jumps off for Villa Verda is telling. Only run on slow a win.
Whittington: Hitting the line well enough last start and down 4kg today much better weighted. Win wouldn’t exactly shock but has to improve for mine. No real wet form to speak of.
Anatina: Looks a blow out chance off the 52kg. Up to open class is the issue here. Only run was a good win on heavy two back.
Comments: Irish Fling is looking for a crazy tempo out the front and while the wet track is a questionmark, the price is just wrong. I have to think that if Bel Sprinter handles the ground based on his run last start, he is every chance today also…. but there are others better weighted i’d say. Famous Seamus is ready to win based on the run last start and will handle the track.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg One: 3, 4, 6, 8, 11
Strategy: Irish Fling on top from Famous Seamus.
Rosehill Race 7
Boban: Huge win last start over the 1600m. Looked to be back to his best. 2 runs 0 placing on slow. No heavy form. Probably over the odds today at the current price though.
Gordon Lord Byron: 1 run 1 win on heavy is interesting form. 3L 2nd to Moonlight Cloud over in France on a slow track isn’t bad form either. Goes ok first up. Looks overs.
My Kingdom of Fife: I like him but a long time off. Goes very well on wet ground but I’d be amazed judging by the first up run if he won this today. Show improvement is best we can hope for going forward.
Sacred Falls: Ran home very well last start behind Appearance. Never lost on slow or heavy and this includes a Group 1 win over Pierro. Is he the same horse this prep? We will see if he is.
Toydini: Not a wet tracker and not going well enough for mine.
Speediness: Probably positioned too close to the spend for mine. His best has been seen from off the speed or midfield at worst. Goes well on wet tracks.
Fat Al: Won a poor weighted Bendigo mile last start on a slow track. Poor barrier today… can run well but not this class today just yet.
Lidari: 2 wins from 5 on slow. Best on good or dead? This is much harder than last start.
Terravista: Two wins in a row in Group 3 class this prep. Never run on slow or heavy. Have to peak run today to go close.
Ninth Legion: 1 run 0 placing on heavy. Never won on dead only on good. hard to have at weights.
Tres Blue: Not at this distance for me today. Wet form is fine.. but distance too short.
Red Tracer: Clearly the runner to beat… 5 wins from 6 on heavy.. 3 from 4 on slow.
Streama: Up in distance suits today. Barrier is good. Goes well enough on wet.
El Roca: Only run on slow first up was decent and a win over Dissident… this is a big step up in class today and I think he is found out here.
Eurozone: 3 runs 3 wins on slow last prep. Wouldn’t be shocked to see him run a place.
Comments: I think this race throws up some tremendous value. Boban and Gordon Lord Byron look big overs.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 2, 4, 6, 12
Strategy: Boban and Gordon Lord Byron to win. Saver Red Tracer.
Rosehill Race 8
Shamus Award: Only won on Good previously but not a surprise with just 2 wins. Runs well on dead. No idea on slow or heavy but they are running after all so no reason to question the run.
Dissident: Showed improvement last start up to the 1600m and suggests the step up to 2000m should suit. Slow track form is super and everything suggests handles heavy. Big chance.
Criterion: Only run on slow was not placed.. but doesn’t mean he won’t handle it today. Going well enough to suggest if he improves on heavy he could run well.
Puccini: Some very very very good wins in Group 2 and Group 1s 3YO company over in NZ and comes here absolutely flying. I hate backing NZ runners first up in Aus, but I think he is a good thing. Goes well at the distance. Only issue is no runs on a genuine heavy track.
Savvy Nature: Good first up on the slow but needed further last start. Gets the distance he wants today and a heavy track which could suit?
Thunder Fantasy: No form on slow or heavy to speak of. Very average last start when slowly away and lost a plate up in WFA-G1. Others probably appeal more here.
Surge Ahead: No form on anything but good to go off. Can’t see him winning this and he is a favourite of mine.
Teronado: Continues to flash home late but just hasn’t got a win this prep. Goes very well on slow and wet tracks and today could be his day! Short enough in the markets though. Big chance.
Hooked: 3 runs 0 placing on slow. Says enough really.
Order of the Sun: Only ever won on good. Never run on slow or heavy. well beaten last start.
Tupac Amaru: Last win was his maiden on heavy. Other run on heavy was a close 2nd in 5 horse race. No for mine.
Cadillac Mountain: Last run solid but still 2 lengths off the winner who is average. No wet form to speak of.
Show The World: Average run first up and that is being kind. No form on wet… much better suited up in distance at least.
Mr One Eleven: Won a Bm-63. PLEASE spell me.
Eyre Square: Maiden winner… how do they even give this horse a run?
Comments: If Shamus Award handles the ground, he is the one to beat, but that is a big if. Puccini looks very hard to beat today while Savvy Nature has everything I want from a runner here at odds.
Confidence 65%
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 2, 4, 5, 7, 9
Strategy: Puccini to win. Savvy Nature next best in race.
Race 9 Rosehill
Epingle: The class runner by a mile. The two wins over in Tasmania were impressive. Had a month off and back at it. 1 win 1 place from 2 runs on Heavy, we know she handles the heavy. Weighted to win again today back in class.
Scorpio Queen: Backing up today due to heavy track after she ran super last start behind Steps In time when blocked for a run. Up to 1900m suits as well. Big chance.
Express Power: No real we track form to speak of apart from a nice 4th to Ecuador two back… but only ever won on good previously so not sure I can trus that run as much as i’d like for a heavy track.
Lucky Lago: Two back ran 2L 3rd to Red Tracer on slow.. that is good enough for me to suggest she goes well on a wet track and other run on slow was a win. Distance is a questionmark today. Weighted to win.
Pretty Pins: Goes well on rain affected tracks but shown nothing this prep.
Any Day Will Do: Been found out up in class. One start one win on heavy but really didn’t show much two back on slow..
Mahara: Missed start and missed the win last start because of it. No wet track form to go off. hard to have.
Danesiri: Never won on slow or heavy. Ran on real welll last start and probably should have won. Still can’t have on track conditions alone.
Porcellanus: Horrible first up and didn’t show much last prep. No thanks.
Intimate Moment: Going well enough this prep. Ran home well last start but needs to improve again today to win and also handle the ground which is a big unknown.
Knead The Dough: Beaten home by a few no doubt last start… but from barrier 1 can take a sit closer to the speed or even attempt to lead if they want today… goes well at this distance and loves a wet track.
Amarachi: Last win in 2013 was on heavy and two back a good 2nd on heavy… but this is too hard today.
Quayside: CL2 winner… can’t see this.
Comments: Four standouts here today. I’m shocked with the price on Epingle.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 3, 6, 13
Strategy: Epingle 2.5 units to place. 1.5 units to win.
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