Welcome to The Profits form guide for Wednesday 5 March 2014 at Sandown. Well we certainly had a day out last Wednesday and it would be great to continue that trend. Saturday went well as well with a quality Quaddie result, Next Best and Best Place bets getting in while the Best Bet race was a big win even though the Best Bet only ran 3rd at very good E/W odds, the other pick in the race stole it at $15s. I’m very excited for the card today. There looks to be lots of overs on the card and a lot of potential. I’ve been excited in the past and it hasn’t worked out so I’m going to be careful to watch how the track plays before investing in the later races. I really am expecting a fair track today with winners from the front, mid and even one or two from the back. As always, I hope your form matches up with mine! Good luck and happy punting!
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters Paradise – http://www.puntersparadise.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Race 4
I do have a keen eye on Coup Badger after that absolutely dominant win last start at Seymour. Certainly can’t be convinced but showed us enough to get on at the prices today.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: I must be crazy. I thought we would get $5s but $13s has been put up! 2 units place 1 unit win.
Race 5
The two favourites stand out like sore thumbs today. Let’s start with Livery.
Last prep the first up win at Seymour was absolutely beautiful. He then went to a slow track and was found out. After that ran a solid second to Grand Sai Wan.. but it was clear that he was being found out by weight. Down in class today but down to 55.5kg, Williams takes the ride and maps to either lead or take a sit behind Auld Burns today. Weighted to win and we know the stable do have a high opinion of the horse going forward.
Duplicity Jones is the other stand out. Ran and won very well last start back down at this distance. Up in class but the 3.8L win was impressive. Most importantly today, Oliver keeps the ride and is from an inside barrier to get a charmed run. Will have every chance.
Comments: The best part about backing these two runners is that we have both places in running covered. We have a front runner and we have a horse who will get covered up and be given a soft ride. Do we win more than the odds suggest backing both? Certainly on my ratings.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Backing Livery and Duplicity Jones to WIN the same amount out of the race.
Race 6
It’s not often I’m willing to back a maiden winner, but Northern Cath looks the real deal to me out of the Weir yard. Up in class after an impressive win last start, she is weighted to win again today and should be suited by the increase in distance today. The only negative today today is the amount of speed in the race.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Northern Cath to win
Race 7
A few good horses in this field but one stands out from last prep that I want to follow today.
Lady Tatia for the Moody stable impressed me first up with a 4L win and then ran strongly in a 3F-GP2 even after being galloped in during the run. As long as there is no clear leader bias, will have every chance if good enough.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: E/W price available on Lady Tatia and looks the way to go.
Race 8 Sandown
Desert Wizard is the stand out in this race.
There is no doubt that this is a tough field full of horses who are fit and ready tow in, but Desert Wizard is the class based off the last prep 2.5L WFA-G2 defeat to Fiorente. He ran 7th that day and the run was strong. The previous prep he won a 3YO class race at Flemington, which proves he enjoys a long straight track and can run on a Good or Dead track. Most importantly, he has returned to the track both times in lesser races outside of Stakes level and that happens again today. The last two times have been fairly easy wins. The barrier is tricky, but even so, he maps to sit midfield at worst.
If Desert Wizard shows us 90% of his peak, at the weights today, he is value.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Desert Wizard to win.
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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