Welcome to The Profits form guide for Sandown, Morphetville, Eagle Farm and Randwick on 26 April 2014. With so many meetings and races to cover, you will find the Melbourne form has full notes while the others have cut down notes. I have chosen races from Adelaide and Queensland that I believe i’ve found an edge in and want to bet into while i’ve taken a look at all the races at Randwick, where I haven’t found a great deal of value today. Melbourne remains strong form, although yesterday was disappointing outside of the value runners put up. As always, I hope your form matches up with mine! Good luck and happy punting!
Melbourne Best Bet
Sandown Race 2 Vain Queen
This girl is undefeated for a reason, she is really good. Her trial before coming to this race today was eye-catching and most importantly she handles corners and also a long straight. Looks to be flying and in this field is still over the correct odds. Most importantly, I expect her to win.
Interstate Best Bet
Eagle Farm Race 7 Spirit of Boom
Spirit of Boom lines up here as 2nd favourite after winning WFA-G1 and being beaten previously by Lankan Rupee and beating home Knoydart. The form lines are stunning. The favourite who is a saver, Snitzerland, looks the only danger and is coming off a very hard run on a Heavy track where the horse failed big time, plus 1200m isn’t the horses best distance either. A small capacity race today means Spirit can be ridden cold and be produced when it counts. The price is way over the correct odds, should be close to equal favourite.
Melbourne NEXT Best Bet
Sandown Race 5 By The Grace
Way over the correct odds today, he missed the start at Flemington last start and was just simply too far back. If he got a sit midfield as previous form suggested he would, he not only grabs the win, I reckon he wins by a length. Positive barrier today at Sandown and hopefully jumps with them today.
Interstate NEXT Best Bet
Morphetville Race 6 – May’s Dream & Girl In Flight
2-horse play here today. I keep studying the form, looking at videos and re-doing worst case scenario speedmaps, and I just can’t find a way to get these two beat convincingly. I have them winning this race at least 75% of the time on my ratings and both horses present prices well over the true odds. Backing them both to create the same profit result, looks a very profitable play to me going forward.
Melbourne Best Each-Way All Day
Sandown Race 8 Rich Jack
Weighted to win today, Rich Jack is in the largest field race of the day, but comes into it with a perfect barrier to jump and lead all the way. There are a few hurdles for him to pass figuratively, but the main speed horse we were worried about was scratched this morning. On everything I’ve seen, he will stay on to the line over this distance even if the tempo is slightly harder than expected and the more then E/W odds put up are great value.
Sydney Best Each-Way All Day
Randwick Race 1 Kaypers
Back in class today and a smaller field, going back today won’t be a worry for Kaypers. Ran home very well lasts tart but just had too much ground to make up. Will appreciate the ground today and is way over the odds.
Other value runners on the card today
Sandown Race 7 Horacio
Randwick Race 6 Hana’s Goal
Randwick Race 8 Permit
Morphetville Race 8 It Is Written
Morphetville Race 2 River’s Lane
Runners who based on statistics are over their correct odds today and should give us a good run for our money.
Sandown Quaddie
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 3, 5, 9, 15
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 4, 5, 8
Quaddie Leg Three: 4, 10, 12, 14, 16
Quaddie Leg Four: 2, 3, 9, 11, 18
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Sandown Race 1
Not wanting to get involved here. It is hard to ignore Husson Eagle’s 0.1L defeat by Bring Me THe Maid.
Sandown Race 2
Vibrant Rouge: Just wipe off last start. She was still good when running 4th in M-GP3 grade, but she is back to where she belongs in Mares grade. 58kg today seems fair and she absolutely flys first up. Will be hitting the line very hard.
Vain Queen: Showed at 3 she is something special including jumping out of 3YO class to record a win at Mares grade. Appreciates a long straight as well which is critical when taking the short odds and off 57.5kg from barrier 6, she will get into a very good spot early and be hard to run down if the big trial win was anything to go off.
Koe: Rate her on her best two preps back… needs further is the simple story for me.
Just A Girl: standing in front of a boy asking him to love her… sorry bad joke. She surprised me up in class last start in slow when 0.4L 4th to Halle Rocks. Her record will show 0/0 from 2 on slow, but that was a brave effort. Up 0.5kg today and i’d say in a harder class of race, she should appreciate a dryer track. Goes well 2nd up and probably better suited to a 1000m distance. Barrier suits.
Legcut: First two runs this prep have just been poor. Equal weight today and hard to see the extra lengths she has to find.
Hotel Sierra: Always goes close. 11 runs for 4 wins and 7 places. Last five runs have been a win or loss by less than 0.4L. Big up in class today off 52kg and I suspect she is found out, but also wouldn’t be surprised if she still runs a ripper race.
Lonhruge: No form outside of very wet tracks. Needs further.
Lateva: Easy kill last start on heavy at Seymour. Three back 0.1L 2nd to Hotel Sierra and equal weights today.
Nadeem Lass: Goes well seconds up and off 51kg today, this looks a winable race based on runs last prep. Does have to improve on first up run but will be suited by the longer straight.
Easy To Look At: Shown nothing since 0.8L 3rd to Hotel Sierra and heavily worse off at weights. No thanks.
Comments: The top two are certainly the ones to beat today. They are proven in this grade and both are first up. Both go very well first up as well, so it’s hard to go against them. Nadeem Lass is the only one who may return test these, but i’d have wanted to see her win first up.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Vain Queen to win. Saver Vibrant Rouge.
Sandown Race 3
Niblick: Surprised many, including myself, with the solid run last start at Caulfield when looked the winner at one stage.. was helped by the slow track. Won’t be that wet today but expect another good run off that effort from a positive barrier.
Kitten On The Run: Giving Niblick 1.5kgs today and no claim, I can’t understand that. Put a 3kg apprentice on this horse and it goes around as a short priced favourite… instead they keep the same jockey on and that may cost it today. Ran very well last start ridden more cold from the back and just got there. Longer straight will help as well today and will be ridden in a similar way today. Can win.
Bel Thor: You probably just have to ignore last start and focus on Listed 2nd to Fat Al? Was that run influenced by the wet track? Probably.. it was a slow closer to heavy than dead. Won’t get a slow track today but weighted ok.
Backstedt: Meets Kitten On The Run 2kg better off today when ran a very good 1.5L 4th last start at Caulfield. Better runner on a dryer track as well and Lost a Plate which accounts for at least half a length in my book. Does go well on a longer straight.
Trade Comissioner: Back to 1800m today probably suitable. Back to a lesser grade of race all things considered as Our Voodoo Prince looks a very good thing. Time run was solid enough to win most other times… well in today.
Price of Glory: Surprise 2nd last start behind Canny Ballad… this is Much harder and equal weights… back to 1800m hurts.. wants further.
Pin Your Hopes: Two wins in a row and up to 1800m today but this is significantly harder. Struggle to place IMO.
Correggio: Snuck home for the win last start at course and similar distance from the back. Better on the wet though.
Duplicity Jones: Wasn’t exactly ridden out last start and run was a little better than it seemed. Appreciate the dead ground today and weighted nicely. Blowout chance
Comments: All runners under $15 in early markets suggests how close this race really is. Probably stay out of this one.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Trade Commissioner to win
Sandown Race 4
Tear Gas: Just wipe last start out of your mind when she was beaten 4L 7th as $1.5 favourite. She should never have been leading. Back in class today and up 3kg after claims, barrier should mean she gets a nice cover up and on her best run two back, can run well here.
Moonlight Magic: Looks to be wanting it wetter than last two starts… Need to find 3 lengths today at weights on my scales.
Khutulun: Ran very well last start flashing home late. Covered extra ground wide. Equal weight today which is 53.5kg and should appreciate the better ground. Key chance.
Kona Breeze: Ran nicely last start over 1300m 3rd to Girl Guide who has proven to be a very good thing winning last start in Adelaide. Times were sound but does need to find about half a length today.
Fortress Madonna: Very poor last start. Time previous run was average. Can’t have.
Madam Gangster: Ran home ok last start in harder company but still didn’t get within 3.3L. Down in class and only up 0.5kg helps.
Native Land: Blocked for runs more than once in her two starts this prep. Both have been some very solid form lines as well. Better barrier today and looks ready to win.
Scarlet Moretta: Hard to see the improvement from this filly today off last four runs.
A Certain Girl: Certainly not here.
Sweet Starlett: Hasn’t shown enough to suggest can place.
Comments: I have this race down to a core group of four chances – Tear Gas, Khutulun, Kona Breeze and Native Land.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Medium bet Native Land. Small bet Khutulun.
Sandown Race 5
Self Sense: Good run second last start at Caulfield in harder company on a Slow track.. but was still well beaten 3.5L. Only up 0.5kg today after claims. Barrier is a worry but down 100m looks suited.
Mr Backchat: Slowly progressing through the grades and won fairly easy in MUCH easier company than this last start over in Adelaide. Equal weight today, looks poorly weighted to me.
Tankster: Improved significantly second up when 1.3L 5th to Miss Steele at MV. Weaker race today but up 2.5kg. A chance from barrier.
Search Squad: Didn’t seem to handle the slow track last start and was just too far back from a poor barrier. A little better today from 9 and will be pushed closer to the speed to have every chance.
By The Grace: Missed the start last start at Flemington and that seemed to cost him the win for mine. Flashed home very well but just too far back and missed by under a length. A huge price today off that run. Rates to win.
Olivier: Ran well first up but laid in, in the straight… went close. Last start a little further forward ran home well enough.. but a few better weighted today it seems to me.
Blonic Hill: Ignore final run of last prep. Won a decent maiden and then ran well enough over 1400m here the next start… but others better today.
Intrepido: Continues to miss a win in city class and this looks a step up today. Much harder race this one and i’d be shocked if he gets the win.
Pilly’s Wish: Poor barrier today probably sees her go back in the run again today. Continues to race well but showed best this prep over shorter distances.. but last start was still strong. Up 1kg today against these runners today is a little interesting.
Wildebeast: Ran fairly last start at Caulfield when 4th on slow. Should appreciate the better ground today but hard to see winning this.
Gold Cufflinks: R-58 winner last prep, hard to see the win here first up.
Majestic Artie: Maiden only winner. Hard to see the continued improvement today at weights.
Excellent Flight: Weighted ok today but didn’t show enough last start.
Darney Gub: Good maiden win two back then ran very well last start just missing at Sandown. Up in class but meets Pilly’s Wish 2.5kg better off at weights and is double the odds. Worth some thoughts.
Comments: 3-4 chances here but I keep coming back to By The Grace at the price. Kah the right jockey to ride him and from the barrier will be much closer to the speed today and will be very hard to beat.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 3, 5, 9, 15
Strategy: By The Grace E/W.
Sandown Race 6
Bloomingdale Miss: First two runs this prep were eye-catching and then just disappointed really last start… but she was up in grade and on a slow track. Back to a less wet track today, she is right in this. Barrier hurts for getting a position suitable in run, but she is still a good chance in this grade off 56.5kg.
Evie Rose: Good win at Ararat last prep and then didn’t measure up in city class. Goes ok first up but better into runs over further.
Holy Delusions: I like her today. Her last start run on Heavy was brave from close to the back and before that ran home well at Randwick on Good 2L behind A Time for Julia, a horse who would be winning this race. Weighted ok and Waller sent her here for a reason, to win. Will be ridden cold… so if they are running on, will be coming late.
Girl Guide: Very easy win last start at course and distance in a fair time from out the front. Down 4kg today and looks weighted to run well again today. Big step up in class though.
Unscrupulous: First two runs this prep have been solid. Needs to improve again today though to win this.
Vihanna Victory: Needs further.
Scatcat: Don’t dismiss this smart filly. Was a big run at MV and Canberra and then ran home from dead last very well on an unsuitable heavy track at Randwick in much harder class for 5th. Back to this class today off 54kg, she is weighted to win.
Awasita: Showed us some impressive run last prep but hasn’t exactly blown us away this prep. Very poor first up and then last start was ‘ok’. I can’t have.
Black Booty: Can’t see her going close on last start run, but was a fairly slowly run race.. has to find much more.
Moreau: Not gone close for a long time and first up run didn’t exactly convince me. Weighted ok though.
High Design: Just going around for the run.
Deeming: Back to his best last start when went close at course and distance in easier company. Down 1.5kg today but has to improve again and the barrier doesn’t help.
Princess Royale: Ran home ok last start behind Girl Guide but has to find lengths that don’t appear there if you ask me.
Cheeky Rozay: Not in this class.
Comments: Open race. Have this down to the four in the quaddie numbers though. Scatcat the stand out and i’m willing to back her again today.. looks 2-3kg better off at the weights than the rest and we are getting a nice price. Good ride wins it.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie Leg Two: 1, 4, 5, 8
Strategy: Scatcat on the E/W
Sandown Race 7
Quick Shakes: Ok record first up, ok record at distance, 3kg claim back to 56kg helps… but didn’t exactly blow us away last prep. Need to have improved to win this.
Magic Me: Settled out the back last start and ran home very well for 3L 5th to Our Voodoo Prince. Up in weight today and no claim is a concern for me, but on previous run he should be running well and from barrier today should get a slightly more positive run. Can win.
Pepin Hoaks: Goes ok first up, better over further though and best with more give in the ground.
Secret Toy Bizness: Little further back than wanted last start but no excuses. Does handle heavy so should have handled the slow. Back in class today and 1100m up to 1500m is a little strange, but showed her best last prep over this distance and off 56kg looks over the correct odds.
Under The Hat: Not going well enough this prep on recent runs to win for mine.
Alrouz: First up goes ok. Weighted well with claim of Nisbet. Will be going forward from barrier and should get position without too much hassle. Prefer slightly further though is the issue.
Digitalism: Hasn’t shown us much at all last two runs and on those runs I can’t have him here.
Marksmanship: WFA-G3 placer over in Ireland as a $2.80 fav. First up showed nothing over 1400m in Aus then a little more hte next run. Spelled then came back and almost got the win on heavy at sandown over 1400m. Way back in class for this type of horse and off 55.5kg… has been off since 2012 so has had issues, but you have to respect the class of this horse.
Belgietto: Hard to have on his runs this prep. Best shown on a wet track. Would need to find 2 lengths today on a dryer surface.
Horacio: Super run at big odds last start at course over 1300m but just missed. Down 2.5kg today up in class, looks to get a very easy sit from the barrier today and will be finishing off his race strongly. Back to a dead surface today is ideal.
Animoso: Hawkes yard flying right now. This guy ran home from way way way back last start at course and similar distance brilliantly. Up in class but down to 55.5kg looks ideal. Can win.
Harvey’s True Heart: Very poor first up but back to a dryer surface today has to be given some respect.
Primitive Man: Probably just ignore last start in much harder class when didn’t convince many. Down 1kg back in this class and if gets a dead track, you would give him a huge home.
Comments: Tough race. Many chances. Three key chances here for me.
Confidence 65%
Quaddie Leg Three: 4, 10, 12, 14, 16
Strategy: Magic Me small bet. Smaller bet Horacio. Saver Animoso.
Sandown Race 8
Almighty Bullet: Not sure what ti make of his very poor effort last start. It was poor. Compare it to two back when first up he was great, impressive infact. Equal class today, probably harder really and up 0.5kg after claims. maps ok.
Zedi Knight: Good old Zedi always runs a solid race. Back in class here to the lowest grade he has seen in a long long long while and is over the correct odds. 57kg today after claims, he maps well from barrier. Only issue for mine is that he is better off over shorter distances such as 1000m.
Henwood: Ran ok first up all things considered down the straight. Way back in class today and up to 57.5kg, he should take a lot out of that run and rates to go close at this distance.
Ventic: Average run last start and couldn’t beat soros the previous run. Needs to find much more and barrier hurts today.
Duke of Cornwall: Didn’t show much at all first up. Has to find 2 lengths today at least to compete.
Soros: Surprised a few with the first up win last start at MV when slowly away. Up 0.5kg today and probably in a similar class of race. Barrier is horrible and will be much further back today. Has to improve again.
White Universe: Looking for further it seems on previous runs. Not the worst spec bet at $100+ all things considered on potential but I can’t.
Campanology: Was measuring up in higher class than this over in Ireland with 63.5kg! First up run was an ignore job and then last start he didn’t handle the ground? Both seem forgive runs to me and you have to give him another chance having trained on more today.
Flyingconi: Probably just too far back first up but ran home nicely. Best is shown over further than distance today but should improve from barrier.
King Buddy: Last two runs have all been good in slightly weaker class than this. Down in weight today and a good barrier, he will be there at the finish again.
Lightenuff: Just missed two back at Bendigo then very poor up in class last start. Weighted ok today with Beriman’s claim but has to find much more.
Shadow Ninja: Consistent horse who always runs a strong race, but is very average always firs tup and takes a while to get into runs. Barrier hurts also.
Specter: First up run was solid without getting the win in easier company. Step up to 1300m iwll make a difference and on his last 3 runs he can go close again.
Tax Evader: Last two runs have been solid without exactly impressing. Back to 1300m is strange but probably a better distance… barrier make it hard to get a forward position today but weighted ok.
Sir Fernando: Showed nothing first and second up. Hard to consider a chance here.
Rich Jack: Went around a short priced 2nd favourite at Caulfield last start in Open company. Down in grade today and from barrier 3 should get a perfect run. Equal weight as well is a bit crazy all things considered! Rates to win.
Lyonell: Needs further.
Mintaro: Never placed first up and never placed at distance from 3 tries.
Comments: An interesting race on paper. Some good horses dropping back in grade. Will Rich Jack get the time out the front he wants? Looks to be a bit of pace in the race, but the price gives us enough variance to be happy here. *Update* The New Boy scratching increases confidence!
Confidence 80%
Quaddie Leg Four: 2, 3, 9, 11, 18
Strategy: Rich Jack to win. Smaller bet on King Buddy.
Eagle Farm Race 7
Spirit of Boom: WFA-G1 winner at MV last start. Was forced to use a bit of speed early to get a better position as well. A month between runs and has been prepped for this today while others have had hard slogs on heavy tracks in between. Looks way over the correct odds today with such a small field, not much to get around!
Temple of Boom: Keep it simple, he is a good horse, but I can’t see him beating more than 4-5 of these home today. Spirit is the better sprinter.
Solzhenitsyn: Goes ok first up and is a good horse. Shown his best at 1400m. Can’t exactly count him out.
River Lad: Looms as a serious threat today. Ran 1.3L 2nd to Apperance last prep which has turned out to be massively progressive form. Will he be able to beat all these first up? Gets the speed required today.
Famous Seamus: Good, very good run on only non-rain affected run this prep 1.3L 3rd behind Villa Verde. Can improve today but others preferred.
Someday: Doesn’t look in this class. No thanks.
Snitzerland: How much did last start take out of her on the heavy? Always a concern for mine. Run previous when 2nd in WFA-G2 to Villa Verde was huge.. never found the right part of the track. Is her best over 1000m?
Fire Up Fifi: Three runs this prep suggest she isn’t going as well as required to win today.
Comments: Confident on SOB at the price.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Back Spirit of Boom. Saver Snitzerland
Morphetville Race 2
River’s Lane is dead set overs today. Listed winner two back, he wasn’t that bad last start being beaten by the very handy Saint or Sinner. Barrier 2 he leads again today and off 57kg back in this class today, he should be closer to favourite.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: 2 units place 1 unit win
Morphetville Race 6
Went over the form 3 times trying to find reasons to back any of the other runners but I can’t.
This is a race in two on form and the only thing that could stop either of these two winning is bad rides.
May’s Dream was just too far back last start. The pace wasn’t overly hard and that hurt her. She still hit the line well enough and up 200m helps today. More importantly meets Girl In Flight 1.5kg better off at the weights today.
Girl In Flight is the danger. Her form lines are delicious to read and her run last start was just great.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: 2 units May’s Dream 1.5 units Girl In Flight.
Morpheville Race 7
A tough race to match up all the form lines. Platelet will surely be ridden with cover today from barrier 5, she wasn’t suited out the front last start…. up to 1200m. Driftontein ran very well last start to beat Platelet, but this is a much harder race again today… clear to me that her best comes on a Good track and I doubt we get that today. A Time for Julia is meeting an even classier field than last few runs today… I think she just isn’t good enough at the weights for this. Satin shoes outclassed as well. Molto Bene is still living off that huge run at Listed company last prep and has shown nothing since. Just Discreet is just 2-3 lengths off winning this. You’re So Good is about the same lengh off winning here while Halle Rocks impressed to win last start from very far back. Up in grade and up 3kg back to a less rainy ground could ruin her chances though. Gig is going well but not well enough for mine in this. Villa Verde has to be forgiven for last start and rated on two and three back runs.. very well in at weights and will be hitting the line hard. Gregers continues to meow… keeps coming into these at the perfect weight and getting beaten. The one I have to be with today is Shamal Wind. Sectionals don’t lie and her sectionals last start were group 1 winners. Maps very well.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Back Shamal Wind to win. Saver Villa Verde.
Morphetville Race 8
Wide open race. I have a soft spot for Minaj but up in this grade think I have to be cautioned not to take anything less than $5s.
All you can do is bet on current form lines and It Is Written is a horse I feel is way over the correct odds. Two back he broke through for a Listed win at MV in a similar grade of race to this today. Four runs back he was 1L 3rd in WFA-G2 company behind Richie’s Vibe when he was blocked for runs. His run at Mornington behind Knoydart was forgivable and then last start at MV did run last, but only 2.5L last in WFA-G1 class off 58.5kg behind Spirit of Boom. He comes into this off 56.5kg today from barrier 2 and gets a dead track which I feel is a slightly better surface for him. He maps well and I expect a great run for our money at the price.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: It Is Written E/W
Randwick Race 1
Kaypers gets forgiven for last start at Rosehill when ridden from dead last in a 17 horse field on a Heavy track… you will be shocked to hear he didn’t beat them all home. Only 10 runners here today and he actually maps VERY well to get a midfield sit today. Down in class today, base his form off the previous three runs excluding last start, and you have him favourite here. Has never missed a place from 5 starts on a slow track.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Kaypers 2 units to place 1 unit to win
Randwick Race 2
Hard race to have a bet in today. I rate Knoydart as a Group 1 horse, but I’d want at least $3 to back him in this race today on this surface. I think he wins, but I couldn’t bet at this price.
Hot Snitzel was huge first up but just refused to win on the Heavy.. back to a Slow should suit and he will run very well. See The World also won’t be put off by the wet track today. Emblems is probably better on a better surface and so is That’s A Good Idea.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Knoydart to win if $3 or above only, otherwise just watch.
Randwick Race 3
Open race with 3 top chances for mine.
Nothing Like Luca returns from 10 months off. First up last prep over 1200m on Good beat home Knoydart! Then went to WF and won by 2.5L on slow. Can win on repeat of those runs.
Mount Nebo has been running on good tracks when he wants it wet. Gets that today and on previous runs can go well today.
The one I like is Single Style. Went around favourite last start in much harder company but just simply didn’t appreciate the very heavy track. Should get a slow today and be much better suited, can run well and win.
Confidence 65%
Strategy: Single Style E/W
Randwick Race 4
I get the feeling Hooked handled the heavy track last start better than the slow track the run before, but i’m not 100% sure to be honest. Back from 2400m to 2000m doesn’t exactly seem an issue to me, and I think a track upgrade to dead would be the best result for him in this race today. Can win.
Show The World needs it dead at worst today to show some of that NZ form, but even on that I find it hard to suggest he can win.
Gamblestown is a forgive for last start on heavy if back on dead… but shown best on Good.
Malice ran home ‘ok’ last start but has to improve here for mine.
Arabian Gold is really the unknown for me. The 2000m certainly suits… but the wetter it is the better it would be for her.
Comments: I’m not entirely surely right now what to do in this race. It all depends on the track condition pre-race and also how they have been winning before this race. There looks to be enough pace in the race for Hooked to run on from the back, but Arabian Gold will also be very hard to beat at the weights.
Confidence 65%
Strategy: Back Hooked & Arabian Gold to win.
Randwick Race 5
Some very impressive winners going around in this race to day from all different form lines.
Peggy Jean won well as our best bet two weeks back, but no heavy track today. I believe the extra distance suits today over the 1600m and I also really don’t believe a dryer track affects her either, judging by the win over Boomwaa here over 1200m on Good back in Jan. Veuvelicious could be something special, Go Indy Go won very well over in Adelaide, Lucky Raquie will appreciate the ground today and i’m not sure what to make of bachman or zululand. Scratch Me Lucky finds one too good as well i think.
I’m happy to sit this one out unless Peggy Jean hits say $1.75 in the place market, then I think that is value.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Peggy Jean to win.
Randwick Race 6
Rebel Dane: Hard to beat today. Ran home super last start at Randwick for 2nd behind Lankan Rupee. Handles any condition of track and is the one to beat by far.
Tiger Tees: Handled the heavy like a champ last start for a good run 4th. Top of weights again today.. up to 1400m not the worst for the horse.
Shamexprss: Never won over 1400m so strange nomination today. Better runs shown on dryer tracks IMO, but should still run a fine race today, i can’t have to win.
Weary: Poorly weighted today compared to Hana’s Goal. Ran home well enough last start but beaten by a few too good. Can run well today.
Hana’s Goal: Over the odds today. Ran home well on Good two back and then even ran home ok last start in the Group 1 behind Sacred Falls for 6th. Back to a track condition she should handle and most importantly a small field, she will be within striking distance.
Bennetta: First up run was actually decent. Up in distance and back to slow/dead track today will help, but others preferred.
Atlante: A few runs this prep has shown promise but has just been dropped back to 1400m which is a big concern. I can’t have in this race.
Woodbine: Looks heavily outclassed and poorly weighted today. Back to Good track probably helps but nope.
Comments: Just an update, as of this morning Steps In Time has just been scratched and all natural speed has gone from the race. Rebel Dane has a very strong turn of foot and sprint so no issue with the top pick. I have no real idea how Hana’s Goal will handle being out the back off a medium tempo and is a lower bet than expected. Lowered confidence in race now.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Rebel Dane to win. Lesser bet Hana’s Goal.
Randwick Race 7
Flight Academy has to be forgiven for last start and looks a small chance today.
Miniature ran very well last start on the heavy behind Politeness and so did Northern Glory who have been well found in the market.
The one I like though is Lady Lakshmi. Ran very well to just get beaten by Tango’s Daughter last start who has Politeness beating form. Lady’s previous runs have all been great also. Looks to be running well and a great E/W chance.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Lady Lakshmi E/W
Randwick Race 8
Horrible way to finish the day. Dart board job!
Permit has to be forgiven for last start when lame. Goes forward today surely and is a winning hope.
Tres Blue is much better than first up run and up in distance should show something.
Slow Pace was a huge run first up at Newcastle then didn’t handle the heavy, this ground should suit and Cassidy on is a plus for mine.
Strawberry Boy a forgive on heavy also.
Diametric should run much better today but only backable if doesn’t play up before jump.
Maluckyday i will be having something on, I have to. Weighted to win again today but probably is an eye-catching run over final 100m to run 4th.
Spillway could run well off tow back run.
I’m Imposing is favourite but I can’t really have him, i think he runs well but prefer permit
Vaquera has the class to run ok here as well.
Confidence 50%
Strategy: Permit on the E/W, he is over the correct odds.
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