Welcome to our Golden Slipper Day form
You will find below our form guides for both Rosehill and a number of races we are keen on at Caulfield. There is quite a bit of value to be had at both venues so let’s make it a great day. We have also added a confidence factor to our tips to outline our most confident bets. Good luck and happy punting!
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au/tab/form/summary.php?meetingid=33869&raceid=295496
Speedmaps and form from Punters Paradise – http://www.puntersparadise.com.au/form-guide/
Watch previous runs here – http://bigpondvideo.com/Horse_Racing
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means a speculation pick.
Rosehill Race 1
A race we have reduced to three runners. Not a giant fan of the race but the form lines seem sound.
Flying Snitzel will jump as favourite and is probably value at around the $3.20 mark. Finished very well last start and will win if reproduces that run.
Dear Demi won a very good race against Ashokan two back, who is competing in the slipper today. Was a little disappointing last up but didn’t look suited to the slow track. Forgive that run.
The most interesting runner is Red Hot Chillies. Finished 8th (2.8L) to Jade Marauder last up and was blocked for run. Doesn’t have the best form but could run a very good race.
Confidence Factor – 75%
Rosehill Race 2
A few horse in this with a fair bit of quality.
Let’s start from the top with Mic Mac. Resuming from over a year off the course, Mic Mac has a VERY good first up record with 2/1 from 4. It’s last win was over WhoBeGotYou in a WFA-G2. This is a big take on trust horse. If you know good things about it, back away, other than that, you just can’t touch a horse returning from so long off.
Pinwheel comes into this race very well. 3/1 from 4 first up and off a nice 5 month spell. 9/10 from 20 at distance and 6/10 from 22 in class, Pinwheel certainly looks suited by this race.
Temple of Boom has won better races than this but i’m not sure the quality of horse was as good. May surprise and go close but am happy to avoid after it’s first two runs this prep that didn’t impress.
Master of Design won a Group 2 last prep and was 3rd, at Caulfield in a Group 1. Will be interesting if they decide to take Master forward like they did last prep as this is a much easier race than the two previous this prep. Will run very well.
Top drop is a horse we really enjoy but 0/2 from 11 in class means it would have to improve big time to have a shot.
Tiger Tees is a quality horse with 6/2 from 8 at distance but only a place in this class. Will have trained on but should find one or two too good for it.
Riva De Lago was luckless in it’s last race and on that run will be in this to the end.
Confidence Factor – 70%
Rosehill Race 3
Mosheen is the word. Look back to her 9L 3F-GP1 win over 2500 and you will realise she is a quality horse who loves a big distance. The owners have been taking the easy money but there is more her thing. She will jump short around $1.60 but that is really a gift of a price.
Streama is really the only horse that could threaten but having never raced over this distance, is an unknown. Did win a 1600 by over 6.5L but since then hasn’t shown the same form.
Confidence Factor – 100%
Rosehill Race 4
Benfica has started this prep poorly and isn’t looking the same horse that won in 2Y-GP1 company.
Forgive last start for Darci Be Good in a much harder race. Look two race sback to 2L 6th behind Mosheen. If produces a similar run could be in this.
Specter has been producing some decent runs recently but hasn’t been able to get the chocolates. You have to think Cassidy booked on board is a BIG plus as he will get everything out of this horse. Big hope here.
Rekindled Alliance was bested last start. I would question the 2000m for this horse. Has claims to be favourite here but would rather others at prices.
Satirical Boy isn’t the worst in this race and after a good 1.8L win over 1900, is down 5.5kg up in class. 2 wins from 2 starts at distance and will give you a good run at the odds.
Strawberry Boy won both it’s first starts very well but you have to question the quality of horse in those races. Happy to be against it here.
Confidence Factor – 60%
Rosehill Race 5
Americain disappointed first up as $2.40 favourite running behind Manighar and Southern Speed by 0.3L. You will get about the same price this run for Americain and you would think will improve on last run and pass them.
Manighar has been super impressive it’s last 4 runs. A very gutsy win last run in a 13 horse race. Will be very hard to hold out and win won’t shock at all.
Drunken Sailor is a good horse but is out classed here.
Precedence ran well for 4th two back against these horses but couldn’t win a lesser race last up. One to include in Tri/F4s.
Southern Speed is down 0.5kg here. Didn’t run as well last up on a dead track and may appreciate what should be a good track again. Will be there at the finish.
Confidence Factor – 65%
Rosehill Race 6
More Joyous comes into this race off a great first up win. Has a second up record of 5 wins from 6 preps, 9 wins from 11 at distance and 8 wins 1 place from 10 on a good track. The horse just knows how to win.
King’s Rose has put down a big run 2nd up this prep over course and distance for a 3rd in this class. Could be finding the line strongly.
Hurtle Myrtle just didn’t race correctly first up. Won a similar distance and class weight two back and may improve but can’t have on that run.
Brilliant win last start by Of OfCourseICan but up 3.5kg as a result. Looks suited to win here.
Yosei ran well last start.. won last year in class and similar distance. Up 1.5kg from last start is disadvantage. Don’t discount.
Quite keen on Lights of Heaven here. First up has good form. Impressive 3rd to Decarado two back and has been spelled for 6 months. Could absolutely FLY here.
Confidence Factor – 70%
Rosehill Race 7
The Golden Slipper.. the best of the 2YO’S. Let’s start with our favourite.
Samaready.. Wow is all we can say. Saw her dominating 3L Blue Diamond win live at Caulfield.. it was a sight to see. Has won by 3.3l, 3L and 2L in her last three runs and is suited by barrier 11 here. Can’t see her losing this. Very keen.
Now let’s look at the other’s who do have ‘hopes’.
No Looking Back is a horse with a lot of quality. Was beaten 3L by Samaready in the Blue Diamond but to be fair had a very wide run and didn’t get it good. Will run a quality race.
Driefontein has been impressive in it’s four wins to date but you just feel it won’t have enough to hold out all of the horses here and won’t win a stupid protest.
Raceway is a huge horse that doesn’t disappoint. Will run a quality race.
Epaulette may threaten here but feel the pace will be fast for it.
Pierro hasn’t impressed us yet, here is it’s opportunity. It will run a good race but not enough to beat Sama.
Ashokan, Jade Marauder, Cav Rose and Snitz all have claims but can’t see them winning this.
Confidence Factor – 65%
Rosehill Race 8
Opening the formguide page to see all of these quality names, the first thoughts were ‘shit’ and ‘oh dear’. At least you are getting value for your pick in this race.
Starting at the top, King Mufhasa is a horse with many a claim here. 7/7 from 20 in this class and loves a good track. Only BIG concern is that the horse is 0 wins 2 places from 3 starts at Rosehill. Should be taken forward to control the tempo and will be there at the finish. Huge odds all things considered.
Rangirangdoo ran a massive 2nd to Manighar last start. If Manighar runs on very well eariler in the day the form line will look good (it already does). Big concern is the drop back to 1500. Can’t really have it over this distance but should still run very well.
Metal Bender has claims after it’s run behind More Joyous last out.
Love Conquers All is a consistant horse. You know you will always get a good run from it. Has been struggling to find a win with only 2 from it’s last 14 with 6 2nds. Will run a solid race but don’t think it will win.
Rekindled Interest is a horse with many claims. Won a 1600m WFA-G2 last prep. Poor 2nd up record is big concern and 0/0 from 4 over good track makes you not want it here.
One of our favourites who has fallen out of favourite after a poor end to last prep, Sincero looks suited to runs over a shorter distance like this one. Seems to have trained on strongly, you will get a value price for it here.
Woorim comes into this race very well. The weight is a big concern but could surprise and get up. Expect a slow tempo which may disadvantage unforunately.
Don’t overlook Monton, will run very well.
He’s Remarkable beat home a fairly average Group 3 field first up, could improve on that run. Weighted out of this is the feeling.
Check the form line from OfCourseIcan coming into this. You know she will run well here.
Niagara was super impressive off 53kg in the Group 2 last week. Up 3.5kg, will be very hard to hold out here as well.
Confidence Factor – 55% – Low factor due to so many quality horses and chances in the race
Rosehill Race 9
Zavite is an interesting horse. You just never know when it’s going to run well. It won around this time last year at $101 beating a much harder field in a WFA-G1. This Group 3 is much easier. Dunn booked on board makes me it interesting.
Extra Zero is a horse that had it’s tactics change last start and won. This is a much harder race but will run very well.
Crafty Irna down 3kg from 2nd in FM-GP3. 5 back ran 0.2L 2nd in Group 3 same distance same course. Will run a quality race.
Maules Creek booked with Cassidy on board will go well here. Two very positive runs over distance recently see it come in well here. Don’t dismiss at all!
Western Symbol won well in an easier race first up. Down 6kg and up in distance, will run well. 3rd to Tanby last prep is good quality form line to go off.
Finally, Southern Skye should run a decent race but looks outclassed.
Confidence Factor – 65%
Caulfield Race 2 (Miss Octopussy has been scratched from the race. Will have a look and either remove or revise to Hadronica)
Ignore last start for Miss Octopussy and look back to the 2.3L win at Flemington. She was brilliant there. The loss last up helps us secure a great price for her here.
Spartini comes in as favourite but this does look a lot harder than any of her previous runs. Times are average and will need to run 1 second quicker to win here. Will be tested.
Hadronica comes into this with a big chance. Has been running very consistently as of late. Down 1kg and has 4/3 from 10 at distance. Will go well off this weight.
Confidence Factor – 80%
Caulfield Race 5
This is a hard race but we are keen on a horse in this race.
Galbraith has been off for 4 months and word is it went well with the spell. Comes into this with a 3kg claim taking it down to 51kg. Has a good first up record and record at Caulfield. 3 wins 2 places from 9 in this class is good also. Has some blistering sectionals in it’s legs and at $20 will be big value.
Another at big odds with a good chance is Rescue Mission. Stepping up for 3YO company, comes into this with 52kg on it’s back. Put down decent times and loves Caulfield. Spell should have let it progress onwards also.
Rocking Force, Kulgrinda and General Truce all have a chance here.
Confidence Factor – 60%
Caulfield Race 6
Smokin Joey is favourite and deserves every bit of it after beating Pago Rock who came out and won after that loss. Top chance.
Agrippa is up 3kg from 0.4L to Pago Rock and will go very close here. Think it will just be held out once again.
Testa My Patience was disappointing first up given a bad ride. Comes in better here and could run well.
Under the Eiffel has run two solid runs recently. Win won’t shock at all as this horse ia all quality but can’t have it.
Shockvalue will be there at the finish. Well weighted here down 2.5kg.
Eight Schillings is the most interesting runner here. Comes into this with a 4th in a NZ Group 1 race over 1200. The times are all fast from this horse and it will lead up.
Confidence Factor – 80%
Caulfield Race 7
Love this race and more importantly the prices!
Let’s start with Dance with Her. We all know about the impressive $130 first up win. She then backed it up at $11s for us in the Pakenham Cup on HEAVY ground. This is very important because it was a 1750 race. This is a 2000 race so you know she will run well (apart from the 4/4 from 11 form that’s already solid). Only concern is some not so great form on good tracks.
Over Quota is into a winnable race once again. Weight looks a bit tough but should run very strongly. Distance may be the only other issue.
Folding Gear will be suited by a longer distance than the last two runs and is penalised the least of anyone in this that beat him.
Viking Hero is one not to overlook. Was 1.5L behind Dance With Her and is quite a few KG better off today. Has won in Group 3 company before and has run well this prep including a 2nd to Royal Mail over this distance.
Chasm keeps improving with every run but not sure the up in distance will help. Unproven over this distance.
Finally, Shewan is a hrose with big claims. 2/3 from 5 over distance and battled on strongly over the 1400m first up when that’s not it’s distance. Formlines infront of Tanby are strong, especiall whne it’s a Group 2 win. 60kg is a very tough ask but others with chances are weighted harshly also.
Confidence Factor – 70%
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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