Hate these races with horses that have never won before. Quite a few with useful trial form and decent first runs.
Horse that sticks out the lot is Lamingtons. Ran well first go 4th (2.3L) at same distance at Flemington on a slow track. Expect a similar slow/dead track to suit.
Rise To The Top deserves to be up there also on ratings.
Finding it hard to look past the quality of Bliss Street in this race after some very good recent runs. Forgive the last start against Atlantic Jewel and you would have Bliss Street as the 3-1 favourite. Somehow it is 10-1 and major value. Expecting this to not finish last. Get around it! Twilighting will also feature with a good run, can’t see any of the others doing it…
Vatican ran a 57.2 and goes down 2KG compared to Karuta Queen who ran a 57.4 last up against Black Caviar AND gains 4kg on it’s back.
Vatican has some great runs behind Golden Archer (2L loss) and Sepoy (4l LOSS) to his name. He is the value of the race at 25’s.
We also expect Amah Rock to return very well from a spell after two impressive runs including a Course and Distance win against Hot Spin (quality horse) so a win wouldn’t shock.
Ratings are very close at the top with Miss Stellabelle, Karuta Queen and Amah Rock all within 1 point of each other. Hard race to pick a clear winner.
A race between two. Expecting a strong and hard to beat run from Manawanui who was unlucky last up to lose to Helmet by 0.2L, who goes off Fav in the Cox Plate.
Based on times and form, Manawanui should be 3-4 lengths clear at the finish line with Collar second.
Black Caviar will win this unless something crazy happens in run.
Scenic Blast an American horse who hasn’t raced since 2010 is an interesting starter who has two 1:08.7 runs to it’s name. If it continues that form, it should take second and potentially test Black Cav if something is wrong. On ratings though, Doubtful Jack is second in this race.
Illo is an interesting runner from Germany. Running from the lowest weight it has been on since 2010, it will run a good race. Having won 5, placed in 5 and only not placed in 3, suggests it will be there at the end, especially on times.
There are four other big chances in this race. Americain is a big chance but you have to question if they will simply give it a run out or if they will push it all the way. Either way, starts on 58kg, best it’s been since 2010 and is a beast of a horse!
Booming was unlucky not to place last start against Foreteller and goes up 1kg.. should be there at the finish
Both Shewan and Tullamore have the potential to win but suffer 2.5kg handicaps which may just be too much.
We originally overlooked Lalla Rookh but we have had it tipped up on top through ratings and at 16-1, that is a very delicious price.
Testa My Patience has to be put up on top in this race. 13 starts – 6 wins and 6 places, you would be liking to have your money on it to place here. Testa is jumping from a favourable stall in 6 and gains 3.5kg from it’s last run. In a harder class now but times and rates on top.
Can’t touch it but Silver Grecian should run an interesting race and expect the likes of Triple Elegance and Luen Yat Forever to be in it at the end.
Ratings have Triple Elegance on top with Testa close behind.
From 49.5kg (should run at 50kg) We can’t look past Helmet here. In stronger class but it is getting a 6.5kg bonus in a longer race. A very solid and awesome run last up, the TAB are offering from 11am in the morning, $50 bets maximum on Helmet, if it loses but places, they will refund your bet (Maximum of 100k liability on their end).
Jimmy Choux is a beast, there is nothing else that can be said. 12 wins, 6 places from 21 starts. Only question would be a dead track. Expect it to be there at the end and won’t be surprised on times if it gets up.
Lion Tamer is the value of the race at 18’s currently, It beat the Caulfield Cup winner two runs back by 1.8L and if the ground suits, expect it to be there at the end.
There are so many chances in this race. Don’t discount Secret Admirer, King’s Rose, Glass Harmonium or even the long odds reserve Avienus who ran VERY well last up behind Descarado!
A number of genuine chances in this race. As the track should still be a bit wet at the end of the day even without rain, we are going to choose a horse suited to a deadish track.
More Strawberries has never won on a slow or dead track so we are going to discount. We expect this race just to be a little too hard for Little Surfer Girl so we are also discounting.
That takes us down to Raspberries who has won 3 and placed in 1 on Dead tracks. Ignore last start and it looks great on paper.
Very hard get out stakes this one.