Welcome to The Profits form guide for Royal Ascot Day 4 on 20 June 2014. Well, Day 3 was a super day of racing and an improved effort on our bets. I was pleased as a peach today looking back on the day, yes, the results and luck didn’t go our way, but the tips were spot on perfect. Our Best Value got in at double figure odds to start the day, our Next Best was very unlucky not to run a place and the stewards should be ashamed for not evening looking at it, if I was an owner, i’d be furious. Our Best Bet Estimate went around at double figure odds and lost by a half-head after finding no luck in the straight. Simply put, if we got the luck we got the win. I had Leading Light the winner on my ratings but I needed $3 to tip the horse, It was $2.20 at highest so I couldn’t give you that tip. Estimate was $12 and I had rated $6-$7.50 mark. I will always take value when a horse is rated so well. Onto today, looks a less confident day overall but should still produce some nice results. As always, I hope your form matches up with mine. Good luck and happy punting.
Best Best
Ascot Race 1 Patience Alexander
Next Best
Ascot Race 4 Lightning Thunder
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Free UK form from Timeform – http://www.timeform.com/free/
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Ascot Race 1
Five horses with form that looks to match up here but only one who stands out.
Appleberry won fairly well two back and then last start was respectable in listed company. Has to find another gear today but step up to 1200m could do wonders.
Bazzana won by a lazy 10 lengths last start in much easier company. Has class but this is MUCH harder.
Bond’s Girl won nicely first up and then last start in a 5 horse race on slow won nicely also in a decent grade race. Has to make another step up here.
Expensive Date first up ran well behind Clousts Rest and won well last start in easier class. Has the ability.
Patience Alexander is head and shoulders the best horse in this race on form. 9L win first up and then ar york last start in similar class won very well beating Tiggy Wiggy who went close yesterday losing half a head.
Comments: Very keen on Patience Alexander from everything i’ve seen. The form lines match up and so does the price!
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Patience Alexander E/W
Ascot Race 2
Just The Judge is a horse who has disappointed since her 3YO year when claiming a 3YO-G1. Last start over 1700m in Group 3 company was an improved effort and the best we have seen in a long time. Last run at course was 3rd behind Sky Latern in 3YO-G1… can go well today.
Contributor is hard to judge today. Good win in listed company two back and last start in Group 3 3rd by 18L to Noble Mission on slow. Previous run here at Ascot was 3YO-Gp2 4th to Hillstar by 5.3L. Needs to find more today but I expect it to happen.
Hall of Mirrors is very interesting on form. Just ignore last start and rate on the 2.5L 3rd to Magician first up. Previous prep 2YO win by nearly 4L was solid.
First Mohican has put in only 1 really good run this prep and that was a 1L 3rd to Mount Athos over 2700m. Back to 2000m today with nearly a month off, you can expect he will be fit enough, but it is hard to suggest he wins over this distance in this class.
Saxo Jack has been well handicapped all his career and is ready to make the jump today. Runs out a solid 2000m and will be there at the finish.
Energizer is a hard horse to rate. Two preps back won a 3YO-G3 at course and distance (2012). Two runs back last prep since more than a year and a half off and was ok, but has to find another gear.
Dick Doughtywylie is first up here and has some decent form. Won listed two preps back over this distance over Gatewood! Then last prep close 2nd and 4th in Group 3. Has ability.
Bold Sniper has to be respected off his 3YO form and his first up run was solid.
Cafe Society has been purchased into the Waterhouse stable and comes into this off a nice 2.3L win. Looks a solid hope.
Comments: Three stand outs for mine are Contributer, Hall of Mirrors and Energizer.
Confidence 65%
Strategy: Contributer on top. Smaller bet Hall of Mirrors
Ascot Race 3
Dylan Mouth comes into this with a huge stack of prize money and having defeated every rival along the way. Most importantly, every run this prep he has been asked to take another step and he had done it with ease. Looks big overs.
Adelaide is crying out for a wet track and doesn’t get it today. Still ran well on dead two back but the no give in the ground today is the concern. Rock-bottom odds here.
Bunker ran a nice second here last year in 2YO class and won the next run. Firs tup run was VERY disappointing, not sure he handles the distance today.. big ask.
Eagle Top has had two runs and keeps improving each run. Needs to improve again after getting beaten as fav last start.
Miner’s Lamp has never been outclassed on the track, is always in the finish. This is a big step up in this class today but should run very well.
Snow Sky has to be respected on the two back 2nd to Western Hymn and then very strong win last start at Lingfield. I would have been VERY keen to back Western Hymn today based on the horses last run but unfortunately is scratched today. Snow Sky oozes potential.
Comments: I have to take Adelaide on at the price. Snow Sky is the stnadout while Dylan Mouth is huge overs today.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Snow Sky on top. Smaller bet on Dylan Mouth
Ascot Race 4
Euro Charline ran well last start in G1 company. Previous run in G2 was nice also after a good 9L win in easier company. Not the best here today though.
J Wonder was very poor last start and first up in G3 the win was fair but nothing special. Not for me.
Kiyoshi proved her class at 2 with two places in G1 and a win at this carnival by a huge margin in G3 company. Has to return at best.
Lesstalk in Paris won in G3 company well first up but failed in G1 next start. 2YO won in G3 and 2nd in G1. This looks a similar grade to last start. Has to find her best here.
Lightning Thunder continues to measure up but just miss the wins with two seconds in 3YO-G1 this prep. Better on Good tracks it seems and no Miss France to get beaten by today, this could be her day.
Pulled hard first up and just a forgive run. At 2 won last two runs by 1.5L and 2.3L in G2. Needs to step up again to have a chance.
My Titania has to come back and blow us away to win this today. The G3 win at 2 was ok but not the best form lines.
Radiator won by 15 lengths at 2 in a very easy race before going down in a 2YO-G3 after that as favourite. First up run was promising just beaten by Lustrous. Step up again today.
Rizeena ran ok last start in G1 company after a solid 2YO year including a G1 win. Need to improve significantly today on first up run.
Rosalind won a 3YO race very well two back but first up and last start runs were hard to rate. Not sure in this class!
Sandiva was disappointing last start taking the step up into G1 company. G3 winner at 2 and 3 and has won 2nd here previously, but this is much harder.
Tapestry has to be forgiven for that first up run and rated off 0.8L 3rd in 2YO-G1 and the 2YO-G2 win. This is a very talented filly and she went around favourite last start for a reason.
Comments: Clear skies today, but Lightning Thunder is on the cards.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Lightning Thunder to win
Ascot Race 5
Very hard to match the form lines, or lack of form lines, up here. A few maiden only winners makes it even more impossible.
Marzocco‘s form is the clear horse to follow with his runs behind Our CHannel and Observational both form lines I have been interested in betting around all week. Montaly has never been far off this prep either and is worth considering.
Comments: Keep your money in your pocket
Confidence 50%
Strategy: Marzocco to win
Ascot Race 6
Not exactly keen with so many form lines and lesser class racing, but you know that already.
Blessington is the one who stands out for mine and last start was crying out for 1540m. Won at course over 1200m and was running away from them for an impressive win. Handles the track and wants the distance… looks to be a good horse in the making.
Rene Mathis is a horse who never runs a bad race and has to be considered today. First up run after almost 245 days off was sensational considering. Big improvement to come.
Comments: Small stakes if any
Confidence 65%
Strategy: Blessington to win. Smaller bet Rene Mathis
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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