Welcome to The Profits preview from Sandown on 17 April 2017. The Easter Monday card from Sandown is a fairly disappointing one with some very low grade races and first starts galore. There are only two races i’m interested in today and those have been previewed below, featuring Best Bets in both. As always, I hope you have a good day. Good luck and happy punting.
Best Bet
Sandown Race 9 – Blue Tycoon – 2.5 units @ $4 to win. Makatiti – 1 unit @ $10 to win.
Next Best Bet
Sandown Race 8 – Euston Road – 1.5 Units Each-Way @ $8/$3.10
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use for the basics – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.odds.com.au
Our results are updated daily here – Betting Spreadsheet
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Sandown Race 8 – 1300m – Toronado @ Swettenham BM78
1. Stylish Miss: Weir runner. Last start at Mornington slowly away and ran well 1.9L 7th. Up to 1300m but probably needing further in the long run. barrier hurts chances especially if doesn’t jump well today. Will try push forward.
2. Long Face Grace: Last prep failed to fire and was spelled quickly. Previous prep best runs were 1600-2000m with F&M win over 2080m. Has ability but hard to trust over the 1300m.
3. Florelle: Sat midfield last start at Mornington when supported on the day over 1200m. Hit the line well enough for third. Has to improve again.
4. Maternal: Godolphin runner that has been consistent throughout her career without impressing highly with just 3 wins from 12 runs. Started under $5.50 the last 9 runs and only won 2 of them. Best rated runs were over 1400-1500m but should produce well enough over 1200m.
5. Tears of Joy: Another Kav runner that has been hard to trust or catch in the past. 8 runs last prep for 0 wins with best runs over 2000m+. Take on.
7. Foreign Affair: Ran nicely first up in easier grade at Ballarat when box seated and ran on well for third. Up in distance looks suitable from this good barrier.
8. Champagne Cocktail: Never won first up in the past and best runs have been over 1400m+. Can win over the 1300m for mine but has never won in this class yet as a 5YO and has to produce a career peak first up.
9. Euston Road: Very hard horse to catch. Smashed them two back at Balarat in sensational fashion before simply not handling anything last start at Flemington. I just have to forgive that run and go on what I saw three back. This is a horse that
10. Gigi Girl: First up ran well third behind Heza Dude in easier when had to travel wide during the race. Never won under 1500m though.
11. Avenue Whisper: The respected Weir runner in the race. Won nicely at Bendigo last start as favourite and takes the jump up in class. Not for mine .
12. Divine Chills: Looked a nice type in first prep when scored at Flemington down the straight. Failed to fire last prep and has had 3 runs in this prep where she has bad almost every chance. The 1300m from barrier 6 should be suited.
13. Ginali: F&M class over 2000m to finish last prep. Very best has been seen over further but did score first up last prep over 1400m at course. Have to respect.
14. Elegantly Wasted: Just the one win last prep in much easier. Finished off last prep in easier grades of racing. Not sure she is progressive.
Comments: There looks a lot of speed in this race and Euston Road will position midfield at best probably further back and be coming with a booming finish. Looks the horse to beat off the two back run.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Euston Road – 1.5 Units Each-Way @ $8/$3.10
Sandown Race 9 – 1200m – BuyAraceHorSe.com.au Handicap
1. Dane Thunder: First up today and seems to always run well first up and at this track. Only won once from 8 over 1200m but placed 7 times! Have to respect even at the weights. City class horse.
5. Recalculate: Frustrating horse at times to follow but clearly has ability. Last prep didn’t see him improve. Won twice in the past first up but just 1 place from 4 runs at this track in the past. Last win was 13 months ago over this distance in this class.
6. Makatiti: First up ran well beaten 1.5L at Bendigo last start over 1100m in harder company. Back in class and up in distance well suited. Best is seen over further, but this is a horse that has measured up at the higher levels in the past. Good barrier. Maps well.
7. Launchetti: Won in BM-58 and BM-64 grades of races before failed defeated last start in BM-64 grade with top weight. Up in grade and lower weight, but clearly still has to improve.
8. Urban Ruler: Eurell runner. Lightly raced type that won a 3YB-70 last prep over in a 6 horse Adelaide race over further. Best in the past has been shown over further and it’s hard to suggest the first up win here.
10. Amber Cavalier: Doesn’t win out of turn this horse. Never won first up in the past and best runs have been over further. Have to take on
11. Blue Tycoon: Talented Hayes yard sprinter that has been well placed his entire career. Couldn’t find a win last prep but ran a close 0.3L behind Barthelona over 1100m in 3YO grade. First up run was very unlucky when blocked for runs at critical stages and should have won on the day. Stronger class of race but better suited by this track.
12. Search Squad: Deep into the prep now. Poor barrier today. Started 2nd favourite last start after a very nice run behind Handsome Thief the run prior at Moonee Valley. Ran 2nd the past two and never looked likely of being the winner. Change of jockey looks a positive here.
13. Shy Frank: BM-64 grade winner first up this prep after an average at best last prep. Huge jump today though when other prep runs suggest needs further.
14. Themis: Measured up over 1200m up in Queensland but did get up over 2000m also. First up today and a win wouldn’t be a total shock.
15. Blacktein: BM-64 grade winner at the bool first up in what was a solid win. Previous preps suggest she needs further than this an easier.
16. Diamond Spinner: Fairly beaten in easier grades of races the past two starts at Geelong and Sandown. Beaten 2nd fav in the past quite a bit.
Comments: Two clear standouts on my ratings here with Blue Tycoon the top pick while Makatiti rates as the clear 2nd pick in the race and looks well over the odds.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Blue Tycoon – 2.5 units @ $4 to win. Makatiti – 1 unit @ $10 to win.
