Best Value
Wellington/Sydney – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.74
The best value of the weekend comes around on Saturday afternoon when Sydney head across the pond to take on Wellington. The value isn’t in Sydney though, it’s in the Over/Under market. You can currently get $1.74 for over 2.5 goals, which is an absolute steal. There’s every chance that Sydney cover that by themselves, let alone any goals that Wellington bang in.
Next Best Value
Adelaide – Head to Head – $1.91
The next best is Adelaide who are up against Central Coast. Adelaide are fourth on the table, and are playing at home, so I really don’t understand how there is $1.91 available. This should be a walk in the park for them, and there easiest $1.90 shot I’ve put my money on in a while.
1st: Wellington/Sydney – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.74
2nd: Adelaide – Head to Head – $1.91
3rd: Wellington – Draw No Bet – $4.20
4th: Brisbane/Perth – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.64
Brisbane Roar v Perth Glory
Thursday 21 December, 7:50pm (AEDT) – Suncorp Stadium
It’s the Christmas round, and it kicks-off on Thursday night with a match between Brisbane and Perth. Last week Brisbane disappointed fans when they hosted Melbourne Victory, but came away with nothing from the game. Melbourne Victory scored twice within the first 20 minutes, so from that point on it was always going to be very difficult for them. They dragged back a goal through Maccarone, but that was it, leaving them on the wrong end of a 2-1 score line. Perth weren’t the most impressive, but did what they had to do to get the three points against Wellington at home in Round 11. They only got one shot on target for the whole match, thankfully for them though it hit the back of the net, securing them the 1-0 win. This isn’t a clear-cut game, but Brisbane should be able to get over their opponents here. They’re currently a little short for my liking though so I’m going to stick with the Over 2.5 Goals option at $1.64.
Last 5 games:
Brisbane 1
Perth 3
Draw 1
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Brisbane $2.26
Perth $3.53
Draw $3.63
Market Price:
Brisbane $2.14 Unibet
Perth $3.35 Ubet
Draw $3.60 Everywhere
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Brisbane $1.64
Perth $2.56
Market Price:
Brisbane $1.57 Unibet
Perth $2.50 Bet365
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $3.06
Over $1.48
Market Price:
Under $2.25 Ubet
Over $1.64 Bet365
Value: Brisbane/Perth – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.64
Newcastle Jets v Western Sydney Wanderers
Friday 22 December, 7:50pm (AEDT) – Hunter Stadium
Friday night sees another interesting match-up, this one is between Newcastle and Western Sydney. Newcastle chalked up another win last week when they faced Adelaide at Hindmarsh Stadium. They may have got a little lucky as the score was 1-1 very late in the game but then they were awarded a penalty. Petratos stepped up to the spot and made sure that it was never in doubt. They’re now clearly holding down second position on the ladder, and the only team that’s near Sydney at this stage. Western Sydney were strong last week, they were up against Central Coast on the road but they never looked like losing. They went into the break 1-0 up, then banged in another shortly into the second period to give themselves some breathing room. The match finished at that 2-0 score line. While Western Sydney have a chance, this is Newcastle’s match to lose. These are the type of matches that they need to win to prove themselves as a real contender. While they’re currently not a bet at the $2.23, if they do drift out to $2.30+ that’s the time to get on.
Last 5 games:
Newcastle 0
Western Sydney 3
Draw 2
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Newcastle $2.09
Western Sydney $3.83
Draw $3.86
Market Price:
Newcastle $2.23 Unibet
Western Sydney $3.20 Ladbrokes
Draw $3.65 Unibet
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Newcastle $1.55
Western Sydney $2.83
Market Price:
Newcastle $1.64 Unibet
Western Sydney $2.30 Sportsbet
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $2.25
Over $1.80
Market Price:
Under $2.05 William Hill, Ubet
Over $1.78 Sportsbet
Value: No value
Wellington Phoenix v Sydney FC
Saturday 23 December, 5:35pm (AEDT) – Westpac Stadium
Saturday afternoon we have top of the table playing against the bottom of the table in what will most likely be a one-sided affair. Wellington travelled to Perth (the toughest road trip on the A-League calendar) in Round 11 and unsurprisingly couldn’t get anything out of the match. It was a tight game throughout though, and they did only go down 1-0, so not the worst performance by any means. How good is Sydney looking, I know they were at home, but when they went down 1-0 to Melbourne City serious questions were being asked of them, but boy did they answer those questions. By the time the final whistle was blown they had put on three goals, giving them a comfortable 3-1 win. They’re clearly the best side going around again this season, and I’d be surprised if anyone could knock them off at the pointy end of the season. The Over 2.5 Goals at $1.74 is clearly the play in this one, I could be tempted into Wellington in the Draw No Bet market at the big price, but will probably stay out.
Last 5 games:
Wellington 1
Sydney 3
Draw 1
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Wellington $4.97
Sydney $1.79
Draw $4.16
Market Price:
Wellington $5.75 Bet365
Sydney $1.62 Sportsbet
Draw $4.20 William Hill, Unibet
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Wellington $3.77
Sydney $1.36
Market Price:
Wellington $4.20 Unibet
Sydney $1.25 Ladbrokes
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $3.62
Over $1.38
Market Price:
Under $2.35 William Hill
Over $1.74 Sportsbet
Value: Wellington/Sydney – Over 2.5 Goals – $1.74
Wellington – Head to Head – $5.75
Wellington – Draw No Bet – $4.20
Melbourne City v Melbourne Victory
Saturday 23 December, 7:50pm (AEDT) – AAMI Park
It’s the annual Christmas Melbourne Derby, for anyone that doesn’t know this will be a big one. Melbourne City had to face Sydney away last week, so you don’t really need to look at the scores to see what the result was. They did put in some fight and scored the first goal of the match, but from that point on it was all Sydney. In the end, they lost 3-1, but one of the goals was scored very late in injury time, so that probably exaggerated the result a little. Melbourne Victory got another win last week when they travelled up to Queensland to face Brisbane. They came out of the box firing with Williams and Barbarouses both scoring in the first 20 minutes. Brisbane managed to drag one goal back in the second half, but Melbourne Victory clearly had their measure throughout. This will be a cracker of a match, I have less than $0.50 between these two sides, and the market is even tighter! Melbourne City is close to a bet, but I want $2.75 to entice me in. As it stands I’ll just be watching on without a financial interest in the match.
Last 5 games:
Melbourne City 2
Melbourne Victory 3
Draw 0
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Melbourne City $2.50
Melbourne Victory $2.99
Draw $3.76
Market Price:
Melbourne City $2.63 Unibet
Melbourne Victory $2.60 Everywhere
Draw $3.60 Sportsbet
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Melbourne City $1.84
Melbourne Victory $2.19
Market Price:
Melbourne City $1.95 Ladbrokes
Melbourne Victory $1.97 Sportsbet
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $2.38
Over $1.73
Market Price:
Under $2.07 Sportsbet
Over $1.82 Ubet
Value: No value
Adelaide United v Central Coast Mariners
Tuesday 26 December, 7:50pm (AEDT) – Hindmarsh Stadium
Last game of the round and we skip Christmas Eve and Christmas Day to Boxing Day, where Adelaide and Central Coast go head to head at Hindmarsh Stadium. Adelaide had the tough task of facing Newcastle away last Saturday, and although they put in a solid effort, they just got picked at the post. It was 0-0 through the first half, but then shortly into the second they fell a goal behind. Not long after the levelled up through Blackwood and things were looking good again. The scores were still tied with only minutes remaining, but then an error down back cost them a penalty. Petratos had no trouble burying the spot kick for Newcastle, leaving Adelaide empty handed for a solid games performance. Central Coast hosted Western Sydney last round and just never really got into the match. About half an hour in Western Sydney broke through with the first goal of the match, there after you just couldn’t see Central Coast ever breaking down their defense. They only managed 36% of the possession, which is one of the lowest I’ve seen, so unfortunately after a solid enough start to the season, things might be on the downhill again for Central Coast. Adelaide should just be winning this, they’re fourth on the ladder, and you don’t get there by luck. Add in the home ground advantage, and I don’t know how they lose. $1.91 is more than a reasonable price too, I expect them to start a lot shorter at kick-off.
Last 5 games:
Adelaide 3
Central Coast 2
Draw 0
Head to Head
Rated Price:
Adelaide $1.71
Central Coast $5.52
Draw $4.28
Market Price:
Adelaide $1.91 Sportsbet
Central Coast $4.00 William Hill
Draw $3.79 Bet365
Draw No Bet
Rated Price:
Adelaide $1.31
Central Coast $4.23
Market Price:
Adelaide $1.44 Bet365
Central Coast $2.95 Sportsbet, Unibet
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Rated Price:
Under $2.27
Over $1.79
Market Price:
Under $2.10 Sportsbet
Over $1.75 Ubet
Value: Adelaide – Head to Head – $1.91
Adelaide – Draw No Bet – $1.44
