Last week
We recorded 7/8 tips with Sydney losing .
Please note
All Injury updates can be found here.
First Teams sheets can be found here.
Watch delayed games.. Live over the internet by: Downloading TVU Player, then going to Channel 80438.
Teams with the BYE
Geelong Cats
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Carlton Blues ($2.25) vs Hawthorn Hawks ($1.65)
Friday 7:40pm AEST – 19/08/2011
Ladder position: 4th vs 3rd
Recent clashes: Hawks have won the last 7 games against Carlton
Stats
Hawthorn averages 10 more kicks per game
Hawthorn averages 13 more handballs per game
Hawthorn averages 10 more marks per game
Both teams average a high 29 scoring shots per match
Carlton average 5 more tackles per match
Carlton average 3 more hitouts per match
Carlton average 24.78 disposals per goal
Hawthorn average 24.98 disposals per goal
Team Changes
Carlton: OUT: Tuohy IN: Jamison
Hawthorn: No Changes
The Verdict
The stats tell us this game will be very close. Can we tip the draw? This game will be won and lost in the midfield. Hawks are the 2nd best team in the league for keeping teams out of their defensive 50. Carlton’s midfield will be the difference if the Blues get up in getting the ball forward and as the stats suggest, with 29 scoring shots per match, they have the ability to do this. We are tipping an upset and expect Carlton to win in a close one.
Carlton by 2 points
Betting Options
4 Units on Carlton +35.5 at $1.25
1 Unit on Carlton +11.5 at $1.75
Gold Coast Suns ($4.60) vs Adelaide Crows ($1.20)
Saturday 2:10pm AEST – 20/08/2011
Ladder position: 16th vs 14th
Recent clashes: Adelaide beat Gold Coast by 57 points in the first meeting
Stats
Adelaide averages 14 more kicks per game
Adelaide averages 2 more handballs per game
Adelaide averages 15 more marks per game
Adelaide averages 1 more scoring shot per match
Adelaide averages 2 more tackles per match
Adelaide averages 13 more hitouts per match (Zac Smith out for Suns this week also)
Adelaide averages 31.75 disposals per goal
Gold Coast averages 36.16 disposals per goal
Team Changes
Gold Coast: OUT: Injured – Lynch, Rested – Smith, Dropped – Krakeour, Daye, Dixon, Wikinson. IN: Hunt, Ablett, Thompson, Hickey, Russell
Adelaide: OUT: Injured – Knights, Henderson, Dropped – Maric, Smith. IN: Douglas, Rutten, Mackay, Tippett
The Verdict
Adelaide have turned their ‘season around’ after getting rid of Neil Craig and took the Cats to the limit last week. Gold Coast on the other hand have been fairly poor of late and with some handy inclusions back into the Crows side we expect the Suns to set up shop and try and limit their loss margin.
Adelaide by 40+
Betting Options
4 Units on Adelaide -11.5 at $1.29
1 Unit on Adelaide -39.5 at $2.19
West Coast Eagles ($1.26) vs Essendon Bombers ($3.90)
Saturday 2:10pm WEST (4:10pm AEST) – 20/08/2011
Ladder position: 5th vs 7th
Recent clashes: West Coast have won 4 of the last 5 (Lost by 16 this year to a full strength Essendon in Melbourne, round 7)
Stats
Essendon averages 2 more kicks per match
West Coast averages 1 more handball per match
West Coast averages 6 more marks per match
West Coast averages 2 more scoring shots per match
Both teams average 70 tackles per match
West Coast averages 8 more hitouts per match
Essendon averages 24.03 disposals per goal
West Coast averages 25.76 disposals per goal
Team Changes
West Coast: OUT: Suspension – McGinnity, Dropped: Brown. IN: Glass, Waters
Essendon: OUT: Injured – Hurley, Pears, Dropped: Dyson. IN: Myers, Bellchambers, Lovett-Murray
The Verdict
The stats point slightly to the Eagles in this game and with Hurley, Pear and Dyson out for Bombers and Glass and Waters back in for Eagles, we can see this game getting fairly one sided, especially in the first half of the match. Eagles will be too strong and cement their top 4 position.
West Coast by 35
Betting Options
4 Units on West Coast -7.5 at $1.36
1 Unit on West Coast -19.5 at $1.66
North Melbourne Kangaroos ($1.34) vs Fremantle Dockers ($3.25)
Saturday 7:10pm AEST – 20/08/2011
Ladder position: 10th vs 9th
Recent clashes: Tied 2 games all. Both teams won their home games recently. Freo beat North by 29 points in round 4 in Perth.
Stats
North Melbourne average 9 more kicks per game
Fremantle average 9 more handballs per game
Fremantle average 4 more marks per game
North Melbourne average 1 more scoring shot per game
Fremantle average 1 more hitouts per game
North Melbourne average 25.62 disposals per goal
Fremantle average 28.52 disposals per goal
Team Changes
North Melbourne: OUT: Injured – Tarrant, Dropped – Richardson, Atley. IN: Hansen, Grima, Mullett
Fremantle: OUT: Dropped – Duffield, Pearce, Faulks, Lower. IN: Mundy, Palmer, McPhee, Pitt
The Verdict
The stats for this game are more even than the betting suggests. Further more, Tarrant is a big out for Roos while Freo gain some very handy players back into their squad. Both teams have to win this game to keep their finals hopes alive with Sydney failing at each turn currently and a tough road home. Fremantle have shown they can play in the last few games and teams play badly coming off the BYE round. Expecting another upset here.
Fremantle by 22
Betting Options
4 Units on Fremantle +45.5 at $1.26
1 Unit on Fremantle +15.5 at $2.07
Collingwood Magpies ($1.01) vs Brisbane Lions ($16.65)
Saturday 7:10pm AEST – 20/08/2011
Ladder position: 1st vs 15th
Recent clashes: Brisbane won the last meeting last year by 8 points!
Stats
Collingwood averages 40 more kicks per game
Collingwood averages 2 more handballs per game
Collingwood averages 11 more marks per game
Collingwood averages 10 more scoring shots per game
Collingwood averages 6 more tackles per game
Brisbane averages 9 more hitouts per game
Collingwood averages 21.71 disposals per goal
Brisbane averages 28.20 disposals per goal
Team Changes
Collingwood: OUT: Injured – Maxwell, Johnson, Wellingham. Dropped – Rounds. IN: Toovey, Keefe, Sinclair, Young
Brisbane: OUT: Dropped – Hawksley. IN: Rich
The Verdict
It may not look like it, but Collingwood are playing a fairly crippled team. Considering Brisbane beat the Pies last year, we expect somewhat of a bold showing from the Lions this week. We cannot see the Lions getting BLOWN out of the water in this game. Remember, the Lions took the Cats to the wire a few weeks ago also and have not been blown out of many games this year either. If you want an example of what happens to teams who lose quite a few quality players, look at the Cats last week.
Collingwood by 45
Betting Options
5 Units on Brisbane +102.5 at $1.27
Sydney Swans ($2.29) vs St Kilda Saints ($1.63)
Sunday 1:10pm AEST– 21/08/2011
Ladder position: 8th vs 6th
Recent clashes: St Kilda have won 4 of the last 5… all of their wins under 16 points
Stats
St Kilda averages 3 more kicks per game
St Kilda averages 31 more handballs per game
St Kilda averages 21 more marks per game
Sydney averages 2 more scoring shots per game
Sydney averages 9 more tackles per game
Sydney averages 5 more hitouts per game
Sydney averages 28.47 disposals per goal
St Kilda averages 30.11 disposals per goal
Team Changes
Sydney: OUT: Injured – Roberts-Thomson, Dropped – Kennelly. IN: Malceski, White, Seaby, Rohan, Spangher
St Kilda: OUT: No change. IN: Baker, Lynch, Gamble
The Verdict
St Kilda have been playing very well as of late compared to Sydney who have been struggling to put teams away, especially by amounts over 15 points. St Kilda are significantly better than Richmond and should take care of Sydney no problems.
St Kilda by 31
Betting Options
4 Units on St Kilda +19.5 at $1.25
1 Unit on St Kilda -8.5 at $1.92
Port Adelaide Power ($5.30) vs Western Bulldogs ($1.16)
Sunday 2:40pm ACST (3:10pm AEST) – 21/08/2011
Ladder position: 17th vs 12th
Recent clashes: Western Bulldogs have won the last 4 games against Port
Stats
Western Bulldogs averages 2 more kicks per game
Western Bulldogs averages 17 more handballs per game
Port Adelaide averages 7 more marks per game
Western Bulldogs averages 4 more scoring shots per game
Western Bulldogs averages 6 more tackles per game
Western Bulldogs averages 5 more hitouts per game
Western Bulldogs averages 26.16 disposals per goal
Port Adelaide averages 31.06 disposals per goal
Team Changes
Port Adelaide: OUT: Injured – Salter, Dropped – Cornes. IN: Brogan, Motlop, Stewart, Logan, O’Shea
Western Bulldogs: OUT: Injured – Morris, Dropped – Hudson. IN: Grant, Cordy, Tutt, Veszpremi, Barlow
The Verdict
While we don’t fancy Ports chances in this game to win.. we definetly think they will give the Western Bulldogs a hard time, especially with some very handy in’s. Our sources tell us Stewart killed it in the SANFL last week and Motlop and Logan are also handy ins. Bulldogs lose Morris and Hudson is also a big out of this undermanned team also missing Cooney, Lake and Sherman.
Western Bulldogs by 22
Betting Options
4 Units on Port Adelaide +59.5 at $1.23
Melbourne Demons ($2.08) vs Richmond Tigers ($1.75)
Sunday 4:40pm AEST – 21/08/2011
Ladder position: 11th vs 13th
Recent clashes: Melbourne have won 3 of the last 4, including a 27 points win in round 14.
Stats
Richmond averages 1 more kick per game
Melbourne averages 2 more handballs per game
Melbourne averages 4 more marks per game
Both teams average 25 scoring shots per game
Melbourne averages 5 more tackles per game
Melbourne averages 9 more hitouts per game
Melbourne averages 28.52 disposals per goal
Richmond averages 26.79 disposals per goal
Team Changes
Melbourne: OUT: Injured – Tapscott. IN: Green, Bennell, Jetta, Jurrah
Richmond: OUT: Injured – Batchelor. IN: White, Webberley Nason, O’Reilly
The Verdict
The stats last week said Richmond had a good shot against Sydney and we ignored it and the fact Sydney don’t put away teams by alot, we are annoyed about this! That being said, Melbourne set up very well against this Tigers team. This game should go right to the wire for both teams but we can see Melbourne getting up in a close one.
Melbourne by 8 points
Betting Options
4 Units on Melbourne +34.5 at $1.24
1 Unit on Melbourne by 1-39 points at $2.85
Best Bets of the Round
In order of preference
Carlton +35.5 at $1.25
St Kilda +19.5 at $1.25
Fremantle +45.5 at $1.26
Adelaide -11.5 at $1.29
Please note
Majority of Betting Options are based on Centrebet’s Pick Your Own Line and supplied starting odds are based on head to head market on Centrebet. Better odds can be achieved by shopping around. Sportsbet pay significantly LESS for the Pick Your Own Line margins. Sportsbet only give better FULL line prices and better deals on first goal kicker etc.
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author will not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
