Welcome to The Profits round 7 analysis with Drew and Euan. If you followed our bets last week they went 4 from 4. As always, we love to hear your feedback and thoughts so @TheProfitsComAu and we will comment/retweet!
You can find Full teams from the AFL website here – www.afl.com.au
You can find an up to date Injury List here – http://www.injuryupdate.com.au/afl-injury-list.php
Melbourne Demons ($13.00) vs Hawthorn Hawks ($1.03) – Friday 7:50pm EST – 1/05/2012
Recent clashes: Hawks have won the last 8 and won the last clash by 54
AFL Tipping: 2% Demons 98% Hawks
Game preview: The hawks looked like they had improved last week and were the team we have been waiting for them to evolve back into. This may have been due to poor defensive work by the saints and great ball forward from the midfield. The Dees on the other hand were pushed aside by the Cats who has 13 more scores than the Dees. We are expecting the hawks who have less injuries than the cats to put the Dees away heavily. Hodge is a good out for the Hawks, he looks like he needs a week or two off. No other changes worth mentioning.
Hawks by 60 points
Line: Hawthorn -51.5
Adelaide Crows ($2.25) vs Geelong Cats ($1.65) – Saturday 12:45pm EST – 12/05/2012
Recent clashes: Cats have won 7 of the last 8 with a close 11 point win last clash in Adelaide
AFL Tipping: 32% Crows 68% Cats
Game preview: The Crows were dominated from pillar to post back in round 3 by the Hawks and were suited by the SCG against a Swans team who are much better on a smaller ground. The Cats have been playing well the last few weeks and have a strong team in with an almost full defense. This will be a hard fought game but the Cats should get over the line.
Cats by 20 points
Line: Cats -7.5
Greater Western Sydney Giants ($3.55) vs Gold Coast Suns ($1.30) – Saturday 1:40pm EST – 12/05/2012
Recent clashes: First clash
AFL Tipping: 12% Giants 88% Suns
Game preview: You would have to expect the class of the Suns and the extra year will mean they are too good for the Giants, even though it’s in Sydney. Big outs in Brogan, O’hAilpin and McDonald make it one sided in our opinion with Ablett and Rischitelli back for Suns.
Suns by 40 points
Line: Suns -20.5
Richmond Tigers ($1.91) vs Sydney Swans ($1.91) – Saturday 4:40pm EST – 12/05/2012
Recent clashes: Swans have won 7 of the last 9. MCG stats are 2 wins 2 loses each at MCG over last 5 years with tigers winning by 43
AFL Tipping: 29% Tigers 71% Swans
Game preview: Everyone has been pointing out the Swans ‘woeful’ record at the MCG recently but really, 2 wins 2 loses against Richmond isn’t horrible. Sydney have won 5 of 6 games (5 point loss) while Tigers are 2 of 6 (44, 21, 10, 10 point loses). The Tigers have been improving and may be ready to step up here but we feel the odds on this game are all wrong and Sydney should be able to get over the line, even with the big outs of Goodes and Roberts-Thompson. If you want to look further into this game, check out the Swans last 6 games scores and how little they kept their opponents to, then look at the scores by the Tigers in each of their games this year, and you will see why we are going with the Swans.
Swans by 24
Essendon Bombers ($1.65) vs West Coast Eagles ($2.35) – Saturday 7:40pm EST – 12/05/2012
Recent clashes: Eagles won 6 of last 9 but Bombers won 3 of last 4 at Etihad
AFL Tipping: 47% Bombers 53% Eagles
Game preview: The Eagles dominated the Kangaroos last week and the final score doesn’t represent the game. 35 shots on goal to 20. The Eagles lose Adam Selwood and Ashton Hams to injuries and suspension this week which we agree are big outs but the Eagles don’t have any ‘stars’, just good performers and good depth in their team. Don’t get us wrong, this will be a very good game and very close. The game will be won in the defense of the Eagles. Their team work is always strong and their rebounds from 50 are the key.
Eagles by 10 points
Line: Eagles +8.5
Brisbane Lions ($5.00) vs Collingwood Magpies ($1.17) – Saturday 7:40pm EST – 12/05/2012
Recent clashes: Pies have won 4 of the last 7 but interestingly stats are 2 each at the Gabba over last 5 years.
AFL Tipping: 3% Lions 97% Magpies
Game preview: A matter of how many points. Hudson and Adcock are huge outs for the Lions while Raines and Drummond are both handy In’s. Pies get back Blair (really needed) and Didak while losing Johnston. These teams seem to always play out closeish games and the Lions water down their ground to try and prevent a high scoring game.
Magpies by 37 points
Line: Magpies -27.5
North Melbourne Kangaroos ($1.40) vs Western Bulldogs ($2.95) – Sunday 1:10pm EST – 13/05/2012
Recent clashes: Roos have won 5 of the last 9 but interestingly 4 of last 6 at Etihad
AFL Tipping: 87% Kangaroos 13% Bulldogs
Game preview: Wood and Jones are big outs for the Dogs while they gain back a few handy players while the Roos have dropped 2 players and brought back in some handy players also. The Roos were poor last week against the Eagles but their midfield was sub-par. This will be a closer game than everyone will be expecting. The Dogs should get the better of the Roos in the Midfield while the Roos will take care of the dogs forward line. The dogs were good on the weekend and we are going to tip an upset here.
Dogs by 5 points
Line: Dogs +16.5
Fremantle Dockers ($1.17) vs Port Adelaide Power ($5.00) – Sunday 2:40pm WST – 13/05/2012
Recent clashes: Split at 4/4 each and 2/2 at PS
AFL Tipping: 97% Dockers 3% Power
Game preview: Port Adelaide as we expected were woeful last week and it really showed how important Schultz is to their forward structure. Ebert and Pearce are big ins for the Power. Fremantle were not much better against the Suns and struggled to get the win. That may be harsh as the Suns took the Bombers to the wire who are a good team but we think the suns still have a long way to go. This will be a close game to 3 QTR time and the Power once again, will struggle in the final QTR. Last week once again they scored 14 points taking their average to 13 with a maximum of 17 this year in the final QTR.
Fremantle by 25
Line: Power +31.5
St Kilda Saints ($4.05) vs Carlton Blues ($1.24) – Monday 7:40pm EST – 14/05/2012
Recent clashes: Saints have won 6 of the last 8 with Blues only 2 wins at Etihad. Saints still dominate them here though with 4 wins.
AFL Tipping: 9% Saints 91% Blues
Game preview: The Saints have been very off and on this season and struggled against the Hawks last week getting smashed in the end. On the other hand, Carlton were woeful against the Giants. This is a really hard game to forecast but Judd Waite and Curnow back in for the Blues will be the big difference. The Blues match up too good all around the ground and should win.
Blues by 27
Line: Blues -25.5
Swans 1-39 at $2.60
Hawks >40 at $1.50
Gold Coast -20.5 at $1.91
Cats 1-39 at $2.40
Bulldogs +30.5 at $1.48
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice.
All lines quoted are taken from Centrebet