Good morning! It was a nice day yesterday at Moonee Valley with out second best winning with ease in the first race while our best bet seemed to be shot from the stands at about the 250m mark and stopped immediately with our two best value tips running game races, both finishing 3rd. Having a look over the form this morning, the Ballarat Card is very trappy and we have decided to look at Races 6 onwards. These will be updated over the next hour in our form. Good luck and happy punting!
Ballarat Race 7
Miles Above: Was an ok horse last prep, but with 400 days off returned in average condition first up with a big weight. Still poorly weighted today and will find this hard. Never won at distance from 6 starts.
Hot Lover: There has been a big go for Hot Lover today and on form you can understand why. Big run last start 4th to Mahisara who has backed up that run with a win. Up 5kg which hurts, but this is much easier company. Will we hitting the line HARD.
Chateau Fort: Hasn’t shown any remotely good form since May 2011. Return last week was average at best not staying the trip. Will be ridden a little further back today, but hard to have.
Beer Garden: Ran poorly last start, but form from previous prep was ok. Does look to be outclassed here today though.
Crawfish: Two preps back was running quite well but hasn’t shown much since. Never won over 1600m and never won 2nd up.
Gottino: Good win first up at Horsham and ran ok second up at Ballarat. Was completly outclassed last start in the Ararat Cup. Will run well and be a contender.
Quick Shakes: Up and down all prep. Last few runs suggest can run wel.
Campeao: Ran well enough first up to suggest there is improvement to come.
Quaddie leg one: 3, 9, 11
Ballarat Cup Race 8
Streets Away: Up 2kg today from the big 3L win in the Kyneton Cup. Was very impressive that day and can win today off that form. Ignore speed maps that sugest going back, will try and possy forward.
Shenzhou Steeds: average at best last start 3.3L behind Streets Away. Recent runs and current weight suggest no chance to WIN today. Could place.
Exceptionally: Super runs this prep and is due a win. Stepping down to Cup level today, has every opportunity. Weighted nicely and will be hitting the line hard.
Sertorius: Has beaten off every challenge that has come his way this prep with weights against him. Won a truely ran race with ease at Flemington last start nad has the form lines to win again. The class of today’s Cup is much harder than his last three starts, but that is what he is wanting! Weighted well enough to be the favourite today.
King Diamond: Didn’t show enough first up.
Streaky Fella: Weighted poorly today and hasn’t shown enough.
Texas Warney: Looks outclassed today on last two runs.
Turnitup: Gains weight on Sertorius today, but not being good enough to win this prep suggests he is outclassed. Will still run well.
Doctor Fremantle: A nice horse who has had two good runs recently, but beaten both times by runners in this race.
Module: Weighted very well today, but off his last two runs, is up against it.
Pelicano: Runs behind Eclair Surprise and Commanding time are pretty good form lines this prep, but hasn’t been close to them. Weighted nicely but has to improve.
Almodovar: Not good enough on weights.
Sister Norma: Doesn’t have the ability off this weight.
Innocent Lady: Gone way backwards her last two starts. Happy to be against.
Quaddie leg two: 1, 3, 4
Ballarat Race 9
Coghills Creek: Been 4.2L or further off a win this whole prep and off 60kg looks to be up against it.
Quatra Valve: Form lines are strong around this Gelding. First up third to Your Honour who has gone on and won with the second placed horse French Tang winning as well in the last two days. Then a close 2nd after that. Looks suited and will run a very brave race. Only issue is wide gate.
Anlon: Good win from the back over 1200m. After that, up in class, hasn’t shown enough to suggest can win today off 58.5kg. May be coming late, but can’t be on it.
LonhroToTheTop: Well named horse. Last prep showed enough to suggest could run a race to win here, but would need a slowly run race out the front.
On The Cards: Good run first up off a slow pace out the front. After that has been confronted with fastly ran races and hasn’t measured up.
Rare Bear: Dominant win last start at Pakenham by 2.8L. Two back ran 4th to Magnier who ran 2nd at Flemington in the past few weeks. Has the ability to be winning this and looks well weighted.
Ripleys: Needs to find a lot more than what he showed last start. Weight looks a little harsh today.
Safari: Hard to speed map this horse. Showed enough three back to suggest could run well today, but happy to stay away from.
Stand And Cheer: Much harder race today than what he has been going around in up in Queensland. seems suited to longer distances.
Brauhasuer: Ran well first up even though 3.25L 4th. Could improve today.
Next: Looks outclassed on first up run where failed to run out the 1200m that was an average paced race.
King’s Shilling: Didn’t handle the first up fast paced 1310m at Ararat. Will get an easier run today but doesn’t seem up to this.
Spurring Success:Looks outclassed.
Quaddie leg three: 4, 5, 10
Ballarat Race 10
Orbit Express: 60kg today having won 1 from 9 first up and having been off for over 350 days. Previous preps form lines not strong enough to win today.
Elusive Touch: Great win first up at Geelong and down 1kg today after claim. Was run in a fairly slow pace out the front which certainly helped. Will go close again today. Wide barrier only issue.
Snow Alert: Never won first up and won 1 from 8 at this distance. Weighted nicely off 56kg after claim, but looks up against it.
Top Drop: Quality horse who has ‘gone missing’ since his 3 year old career. 204 days off and could have trained on well.
Red Colossus: Has a good first up record with 2 from 6, but hasn’t won in a while. Has been off 176 days and last prep couldn’t do any better than 3.7L within a win. Needs to have improved big time.
Stanzout: Good firs tup run over the spring at Cranbourne, but was still 1.75L behind the win. Outclassed last start. Will find this hard.
Adamon: No excuses first up. Looked very poor. Back in class today but will find this hard also.
Agrippa: Given every chance first up when allowed a slow speed out the front. Wasn’t good enough. Meets Elusive Touch 1kg better off today after claims. 3 wins from 4 second up.
WestSouthWest: Quality form last prep, be it in much longer distances including 3rd in SA & QLD Derby’s. Unsure if can run out the 1200m, but has won at 1600m before.
Adamantium: Made up enough ground last start to suggest can run well today second up. Will sit closer to the pace today and be in with a big chance.
Euphoric Realm: 51kg is very handy for the horse. While the previous form isn’t great, It is hard to count him out off the weight.
Emboldened: Ran ‘ok’ last start 2.7L behind Arinosa (2nd was 1.7L) and before that winning at bendigo. Off 54kg has the ability to go close.
Scottish Border: Never won or placed first up and previous form suggests up against it.
Rescue Mission: Super disappointing this prep. Can’t have today even off 54kg.
King Cobweb: Outclassed on previous runs.
Dane The Rave: Decent win last start but up against it on weights compared to others.
Quaddie leg four: 2, 4, 9, 10
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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