Welcome to another Saturday meeting write-up for The Profits. This weekend we look at Caulfield and Warwick Farm race meets. There are some decent fields on offer at each track while there are also some very average races and of course the first starters that are always a nightmare. As always we hope our form stacks up with yours. Good luck and happy punting!
Best Bet
Caulfield Race 5 Day Procedure
Next Best
Caulfield Race 8 Fast and Free
(Please note that we posted this tip up on Twitter on Thursday at $4.60 and it has been smashed into $3.80. I wouldn’t be taking any shorter than $4.00.. I do expect it to drift to around $4.20 on the day).
Best Value
Warwick Farm Race 4 Lining
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters Paradise – http://www.puntersparadise.com.au/form-guide/
Watch previous runs here – http://bigpondvideo.com/Horse_Racing
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means a speculation pick.
Caulfield
Caulfield Race 1
Maglissa: Super win last start at course and distance set up by a solid speed up front. Will be going back again today. Up 1.5kg today.
Evens: Up 1.5kg today after winning a fairly average race at Moonee Valley. Ran 0.2L behind Maglissa at Caulfield last start. Could be the one to beat.
Hazard: Won very well at Geelong by 3L and should progress here today. 3kg worse off at the weights for that win but win in very convincing fashion.
Midnight Fury: Hard to see her winning today but last prep did win in much better company than this.
Mrs Hadlee: Meets Maglissa and Evens 1kg better off today and ran 0.1L behind Maglissa last start. Will get a very strong run from barrier 5 and if produces the same run as last start, is the one to beat.
Nella Fantasia: Progressive type who should run well today. Weighted nicely but barirer 7 will make it a little harder than needed. Should still be in it today.
My Bare Lady: Looks the worst in this race by a long way.
Confidence 70%
Caulfield Race 2
Self Sense: Decent family breeding. All three related won over 60k but not more than 150k. Should run well.
Shogun Star: Poor family of breeding. Market your guide.
A Single Tear: Super poor breeding family. Market guide.
Devil Woman: 3.5L behind Clevadude not the worst form. Expected to be a VERY good horse.
Diamond Glow: First out of a fairly average dam. Market guide.
Upside Rock: Breeding doesn’t show much. Hayes yard going well in these races. Market guide.
Confidence 40%
Caulfield Race 3
First Command: On form early in 2012 is one of the best 1000-1100m horses going around. Has a very strong first up record and goes well at track. Ignore last start and on previous runs can win today.
Go The Knuckle: As expected ran very well first up but just beaten by Beltrois. First time at this course but will be very hard to hold out.
Rocking Force: Doesn’t look up to this class at the weights.
It’s Crunch Time: Progressive horse who has put in some very solid runs the last few months. weighted well and has the ability to go close today.
Shock Value: Not good enough today on first two runs.
The Soldier: Ran very well second up at Flemington (ignore first up run). Weighted very well today and in with a big chance.
Waltzes: Doesn’t seem to be good enough today having only won 1 from 9 at class previously. Is weighted nicely but happy to be against.
Johnny Fiasco: Not good enough for this class.
Confidence 70%
Caulfield Race 4
Cornell: Interesting runner. Won last prep first up beating Hot Lover over 1400m. Off 58kg today could run very well second up.
Finishing Card: Won a VERY poor race last start at Caulfield almost by default due to scratchings of all the real runners. Off 57kg today after claims does have a good chance but needs to find another half length.
Flashy Fella: Turned a corner last start over last three runs where won in better company than this. Has won previous at 1400m. Never won first up.
Clanga’s Glory: Poor last start. Up 3.5kg today and down in class. Needs to find much more today to be competitive.
King Cobweb: Not good enough to compete in this race.
Al Aneed: Down 3kg today which may be the difference. Up in class slightly but does have the ability to win today.
Khalifa: Ran well behind Lampedusa and down 2kg today. Has the ability to put in another solid run.
Signor Socks: Up in class but very well weighted today off 51.5kg. Could run a very sneaky race.
Confidence 70%
Caulfield Race 5
Day Procedure: Super win first up at Moonee Valley. Steps up to 1100m today and shouldn’t have any issue. Barrier 1 suits and claim of 3kg also suits. Has every chance today and looks to be overs.
Velonski: Very average and disappointing last prep. If trained on has the ability to run well but don’t like here at the weights today.
Lonrockstar: I just can’t see how this horse is the $2.70 favourite. Up in class today off 54kg but will be sitting a little back and has won a maiden and a R-68 race. That is all. Looks massive unders but should run well no doubt.
Subiaso: A horse with a load of ability. Looks to be suited by a little further than this but a win today wouldn’t shock anyone.
Colicchio: Nice maiden win but this is a step up again today. Time was decent.
General Peekay: Only a winner of maidens and did run 4th to Rusambo last prep. Should have trained on but didn’t run well first up last prep.
Mandla: Couldn’t win a maiden last start.
Benedictus: Gains a 2kg advantage on Day Procedure today which could be enough to compete.
Good Thinking: Doesn’t look good enough.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie leg one: 1, 3, 4, 8
Caulfield Race 6
Avionics: Ran on nicely first up at Moonee Valley but needs to have improved again today. Down 1kg down in class after claim which is important. Has the ability.
Tariana: Big win second up at course and distance in same class. Up 3kg today so Thornton goes on with claim. Barrier 5 suits and will go forward again today.
Follonica: Ignore last start when injured during race. Down to 57.5kg today after claim and has the ability to win win win today. Big chance.
Inabilitz: Ran well last prep and has a good first up record. Has never won at track from 4 starts is an issue but keeps putting in solid runs. Times are a little slow is an issue and weight looks against her. Still, win won’t be a shock at all.
Vain Attraction: 2kg worse off today against Tariana. Can’t have on this.
Blue Ribbon: Didn’t produce anything first up. Could run well if you forgive first up but others more fancied.
Louisville Dancer: Meets Tariana 2kg better off today at the weights after claim. Needs to find much more than what showed last start to win this.
Riverina’s Girl: Didn’t show enough firs tup to suggest off 56kg has the ability to win this today.
Go Katrina: A long time off. A good win two back in harder company over 1400m beating some good horses. Has ability if trained on well.
Music Shop: Keeps putting in strong runs. This may be a big step up today.
Sport Chic: Doesn’t rate very well here today on last prep runs.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie leg two: 1, 2, 3, 7
Caulfield Race 7
Midnight Glory: Very average last start at course and similar distance. No better at weights today. Hard to have.
Whisper Downs: Big win last start at course and similar distance. Up 2kg which is deserved but still keeps him well weighted.
King’s A Star: Hard horse to place. Ran well behind Two Sugars two back but showed nothing last start at Flemington. Weighted harshly here.
Apres: Keeps putting in solid runs. Good last start behind You Think So. Weighted as you would expect and could run well. Never won from 6 at track.
Crawfish: Hasn’t shown enough this prep to suggest is progressive enoug to win today. Could go close but.
Now and Zen: Good win last start at the Valley. Previous to that 2L behind Apres and meets 3.5kg worse off today. Can’t have.
Tube: Wins in lesser company. Up against it today but is weighted nicely.
Beer Garden: Down 2kg today which helps but not good enough here.
Dealer Principal: Not classy enough for this.
Milensnake: Could put in a very strong run today. Has ability and off 51kg. Watch out for. Could shock.
Rock Musician: A big chance at odds. Simply write off first up run. On previous form lines has every opportunity today.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie leg three: 2, 4, 11, 12
Caulfield Race 8
Bigelow: Put in some decent runs this prep but has been overly disappointing just not getting there. Will be a chance again today off 58kg but will need to find a gap or two.
Agrippa: Hasn’t shown anything since first up run at Geelong. Is MUCH better ridden forward than at the back of fields and HOPEFULLY is given a more forward ride today and a chance. Loves Caulfield and with 56kg is weighted to win. Looks to be overs.
Sadalbari: Shouldn’t be racing.
Westsouthwest: Wasn’t the worst run last start at Mornington. Down to 56kg today after claims. Has ability to win.
Prince Obama: Always takes a run or two to get to best. Down in class today and weighted nicely. Has ability and loves Caulfield. Could run well.
Dayita: Very poor first up. Expect to sit further forward today and compete off 55kg after claim.
Fast and Free: The class runner in the race. Won very well last start at Flemington and will go more forward today compared to last start at Caulfield. Weighted nicely.
Snow Cover: Performed above expectations last start at Flemington due to weights. Down in class and 53.5kg today means could run another nice race again today.
Scottish Border: Not good enough.
The New Boy: Form lines around British General held up when he won this week. Has the ability and weighted nicely again today.
Heaven’s RIches: Looking for further than this.
Wind Shear: Not good enough on first up performance. Is weighted nicely.
Urban Explorer: Not good enough on first up performance.
Speckie: Needs to find much more today.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie leg four: 2, 6, 7, 10
Warwick Farm
Warwick Farm Race 1
Three main standouts in this race. The first is Imperil. Good win last start at Rosehill. Disappointing the previous run at Canterbury is the main worry. May not handle a good ground. Stand Strong was very strong first up at Canterbury winning well start to finish in good time. Will try and lead this all the way again and the course suits front runners. The final horse is That’s a Good Idea who ran well behind Heart Testa last start and could be value.
Confidence 65%
Warwick Farm Race 2
Not the type of race I like to bet into but if you twisted my hard Direct Charge looks to be a good price for a horse that will give you a very solid run from barrier 5.
Confidence 60%
Warwick Farm Race 3
Two main runners in this race for us. The first is Jaipur Princess. Good run two back at course and similar distance. Weighted ok today. The main hope is Georgey Aeroplane who put down a huge run last start at Rosehill. More than happy to be against Award Season today.
Confidence 75%
Warwick Farm Race 4
Looks to be a few strong runners resuming today. Let’s start with Sessions. A very hard horse to get a hold of. Happy to be against here today up 2kg. Just keeps doing stuff wrong and the tempo out front will be fierce today. Lining is a horse that could appreciate a strong tempo after a very well won race last start at course and distance off a strong tempo. Texan Lad is in with a chance also after the last start win and Floral Insight has claims also. Diamond Earth will be pushing forward and may look the winner at the 200m mark (the horse simply stops in the final 50m) but could last out the distance today. Finally, Earnest Ernest has the best form going around and could win today.
Confidence 70%
Warwick Farm Race 5
Another race with a fair few chances. The two that stand out for us are the bottom weights. River of Salvation won well at course and similar distance last start. Up in class no doubt but the time of that race was super fast. Down to 52kg today (down 4.5kg) and could run well. The main horse here for us is Merlin Mustang off 54kg. Has the ability to go on and simply just win. Of the others, Riva De Lago looks the best weighted.
Confidence 65%
Warwick Farm Race 6
Three main chances here. Disiciple is probably the one to beat. Huge win last start. Previously to that ran 3rd to a runner here Privately by 0.3L. Meets Privately much worse off at the weights today interestingly and Privately has big claims. Finally. Gangster’s Choice after the 3kg claim of Duggan is down to 57.5kg and off that weight is the best in the race. Ignore last start when injured during race.
Confidence 75%
Warwick Farm Race 7
A few chances in this race. Hard to tell how Sutton Queen will return today off 58kg after claim. Has the abilityt o win on times and has won 2/3 first up. Never ran at track before. Does appeal. Matignon won a much easier 1000m race but 5.3L at country grade. Big step up here but should still run well. The two of main interest are two we backed at their last starts. Both won well. The difference for us today is speedmapping and weights. My Sabeel is up in class today and only down 0.5kg after an impressive Rosehill win. Will find it hard coming across from 10 today and will need to spend a fair bit early. She’s Clean on the other hand is down in class and only up 2.5kg for this after an impressive win over Choice Words. She also won last prep as this track while My Sabeel is 0/3 at the track.
Confidence 70%
Warwick Farm Race 8
Two horses appeal strongly here out of the same race. Beckon ran very well from the front in a super fast time and was just run down late. Down 2.5kg today and 1kg better off than Lohengrin today could be the difference. Lonhengrin has super form lines and was huge late last run.
Confidence 75%
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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