Welcome to The Profits write-up for Caulfield Blue Diamond Stakes and Oakleigh Plate Day with Warwick Farm form also. What a cracking card we have on our hands. We are certainly spoiled. The first two races look to be trappy so may be best to start betting from race 3 onwards today. This will give you ample time to figure out how the track is playing anyway! Check out the promotions on offer and don’t forget to sign up for the Betfair tipping competition! We will also be creating a Star Stable league next week so watch twitter for the code. We will be giving away a prize to the person who wins our league as well! As always, we hope your form matches up with ours. Good luck and happy punting!
Best Bet
Caulfield Race 4 Fiveandahalfstar
Next Best
Caulfield Race 6 Green Moon
Best Value
Caulfield Race 5 Tanby
Caulfield Race 9 Minnie Downs
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Promotions
Quaddie First Leg Refund
If the first leg of your Saturday Quaddie at Caulfield legs you down, yet the other three legs get up, Betfair will refund your stake up to $50
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Half length Cashback
Available on major meets throughout Autumn, Betfair are refunding all losing bets of hroses who lose by half a length or less for bets using their Tote Extra product.
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Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters Paradise – http://www.puntersparadise.com.au/form-guide/
Watch previous runs here – http://bigpondvideo.com/Horse_Racing
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means a speculation pick.
Caulfield Race 1
Pronto Pronto: Ran on well from last at the valley last start all things considered. Will be better for the run. Still, think he needs further.
Cambiaso: Didn’t show enough last prep to suggest a win first up today.
Chosen Moment: Big win last start on a controlled tempo.. not sure how the form will stack up here today, but it has stacked up elsewhere. Could be value.
General Peekay: Big win at Mornington and is up in class today. Has the ability but barrier 11 certainly doesn’t help him.
Crystal Web: Showed enough last prep to suggest could have trained on. Couldn’t back first up though.
Flamberge: Decent enough firs tup run. Has to improve significantly here today.
Floatmyboat: Ran on to win a slowly run race last start at course and distance. Down 1kg today.. a BIG chance on that run.
Shoreham: Not disgraced first up behind Royal Haunt… should run well today.
Grand Emperor: Hard to have today on first up run. Does seem to have progression though.
Delagos: Down from Sydney and never a chance first up. Up in class today up against it.
Tan Tat Rock: HUGE UNDERS today. Only this price due to Moody Nolen combo. iT didn’t beat much last start. Barrier 2, trapped the rails? No thanks!
Snip The Dancer: Much prefer him to Tan Tat today. Still, don’t like either.
Street Crime: Not good enough.
Confidence 60%
Strategy: Many a chance in this race. May have a VERY small bet on FloatMyBoat here due to the odds being overs. All depends on track report in the morning and how the jockey’s feel it will run.
Caulfield Race 2
Mourinho: Not the best record at distance and never won first up. Does go ok at the track though. big win last start of last prep but this is a different race.
Hotham Heights: Have a lot of time for this horse as you all know. Down in class today and weighted very well. Barrier two is a SLIGHT issue… BUT.. speed map has him positioning 1 out 1 back for a perfect run. Has won 2 from 4 at track and 3 from 6 at distance. Positioning further forward today will be the key. Big chance.
Secret Liaison: A horse that has cost us a fair bit by beating some of our better bets over the past three months. Had a nice spell of nearly two months off and should be even better than before. Better suited to 1600m+ but this isn’t that much of a step down. Loves a dead or good track and is a big chance. Don’t dismiss her!
Snow Cover: Down in class today and weighted well off 53kg after claim. Won here at course and similar distance three back. Last start was pretty poor though. Must imrpove today.
Stoneblack: 1 win from 15 at distance, never won from 13 at track and never won from 5 first up. Too much against.
Devils Force: Rates poorly here today even though weighted ok.
Giresun: Ran on well last start but looks up against it today off recent runs. Has to find at least two lengths.
Now You Know: Pushing forward today and rates to win off previous prep. Has never won first up before is a slight concern but did run 2L 2nd to Fat Al last prep. Weighted nicely and did beat Shanghai Warrior at 1400m last prep as well at Sandown. Looks the one to beat.
Blue Ribbon: Not good enough on this prep runs.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: There are a fair few chances in this race so even though I am quite confident on Now You Know, I am not sure if I will be touching this race. I would have to do the above backing with a small win bet and saver on the other two I like and even then, that might not get home. Nine races to choose from today, we shouldn’t be betting if we don’t need to.
Caulfield Race 3
Members Joy: Ran on very well last start and seemed to like the sting out of the ground. Expecting we will have a Good track tomorrow so she may be a touch of UNDERS in this race for a good track.
Summer Gem: Didn’t seem to like the Dead ground last start AND was simply too far back. Rawiller back on today gets every chance. Will be hitting the line hard.
Meliora: Good win three back at the valley but since then hasn’t measured up in this class. Will run on well again but this looks hard.
Balaclava Lady: Ran well first up but needs to find much more today.
Red Fez: Good win last start at Sandown in lesser company, could show enough today to compete.
Gondokoro: Not good enough on last prep.
Hamam: Times Last start was a decent win but has to improve even further today. Will get trapped on rails from barrier 1.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Summer Gem is a massive price here today. Happy to back for 1 unit to win with a 0.75 unit saver on Members Joy.
Daniel Bevan from Betfair: Best Value of the day – Meliora: She’s the only known leader in the race and Beirne thinks she will control the pace and represents excellent value around her current $8 exchange price.
Caulfield Race 4
Fiveandahalfstar: Showed last start that he has come back AS good as last prep finishing 0.2L off the win and 1.8L in front of Super Cool. Suited by barrier 2 and speed maps well.
Super Cool: Will position further forward today to compete with Fiveandahalfstar. Has the ability but needs to turn around 1.8L and 1.5L on last two runs behind fiveandahalfstar at equal weights today from those last two runs.
Subiaso: Down 3kg today off a very strong win last start at Sandown. Previous to that ran on from the car park to finish 1.5L behind Red Inca. Could run a place.
Luck’s A Fortune: Only won a maiden. No thanks.
Bit of a Schiller: Good run last start but this is much harder.
Must Confess: Never ran before, happy to avoid this runner.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Bet Fiveandahalfstar straight out to win. On all form, the horse should be closer to the $1.70 mark. 3 units win.
Caulfield Race 5
Mr Moet: Absolutely huge run last start from dead last after being slowly away. Expect may try and position SLIGHTLY further forward today and has every chance today getting up to 1800m.
Tanby: Strong win last start at Sandown last prep. Only one once first up and never won at track.. but has a great strong record on Good tracks. 1/1 at class. Has the ability and won 2 from 4 distance. Don’t discount. Is a stupid price.
Mawingo: Blocked for run and smashed during running. Suited by step up to 1800m today and looks set for a big prep. Barrier 1 IS an issue.
Budriguez: Solid start to finish win last start. Up 3kg today and this looks a hard job at the weights.
Foreteller: Fairly poor last start all things considered by did box on ok. 1kg better off today against Budriguez, others more fancied.
Eclair Surprise: Huge win last start off 62.5kg in Adelaide. The grade was much easier but at a distance he isn’t as suited in. Has won last 4 in a row including a Group 3. Will be positioning far back today and barrier 2 is an issue, but has the ability to hit the line late.
Prairie Star: Not the worst run last start but up 3kg hard to back today.
Invest: Big run last start.. could be value.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Betting AROUND the two favourites here today. That race last start was simply set up for them with the front runners going wayyyyy too fast too early. This has caused the market to under-estimate the other runners here with Tanby 1/1 at WFA-G2, having defeated MaLuckyDay last prep and ran on very well while Eclair Surprise certainly did surprise at a lesser distance last start lugging around 62.5kg.. the last 100m was SENSATIONAL considering the weight. I will be playing 0.75 units Tanby 0.75 units Eclair Suprise for sure. I’m not 100% sure what I will do with place markets, Tri’s and F4s as of yet, but it is a wide open race for mine and there will be some large dividends that could be paid out here.
Daniel Bevan from Betfair: Best bet of the day – Mawingo: Dominic Beirne notes that he recorded an equal personal best in running second in the Orr last start and that he’ll stalk Budriguez from barrier one.
Caulfield Race 6
Green Moon: A horse that can’t run with weight. Watch him prove me wrong today, but on form lines, he doesn’t carry weight well. He WILL be suited by a strong tempo today, that is a positive, meets All Too hard 6kg better off today and will get a rails run. Have I talked you out of him and then back into him yet? In all seriousness, he should be able to carry the weight today at this distance from the tempo.
King Mufhasa: Super disappointing first up this prep. Last two runs at course have been sub-par. Hard to back today.
Mourayan: Looking for further than this it seems.
Glass Harmonium: Won twice first up previously and last prep first up run was 4th behind Moment of Change in one of the hottest form races of the season. Was finally pushed forward/jumped well last start to get nailed on the line by Alcopop in the Mackinnon. BIG chance today and simply overs. Please note that Glass Harmonium misses the start when worked up in the yard. May be best to back IN-Play on Betfair once jumps well.
Maluckyday: Didn’t show enough last start to suggest can run this and win.
Niwot: Best is past him.
Shanghai Warrior: Ran on gamely but up in weight today up in class, no thanks.
Lights of Heaven: Took a while to come on last start.. not suited by this distance.
Koonoomoo: Strong run at course and similar distance last start, this seems much harder and won’t position forward today (which could suit).
All Too Hard: Ran on gamely to win last start suited by the tempo. More runners to go around today, is simply unders.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie leg one: 1, 2, 4, 10
Strategy: This race looks absolutely suited to Green Moon and Glass Harmonium. Both should be positioning forward and be given every chance. 1.5 Units Green Moon 0.8 Units Glass Harmonium.
Caulfield Race 7
Crack A Roadie: Speed maps poorly. Will be having to push from far back it looks like. Hard to have today at weights on previous runs. Never run on good before.
Dissident: Progressive type that has the ability to improve onwards today. Gets too far back to win today though.
Shamus Award: Should position on the rail behind the leader today. Hasn’t won a race and can’t see why today would be the day.
The Bowler: Ran very well first up at track over the 1100. Blinkers on today from barrier 3 and had vet exam last start. Positions about 6th and could be a surprise going to the line.
I Am Titanium: Didn’t measure up last start. Hard to see the win today at the weights from barrier 14.
Fast ‘N’ Rocking: Get too far back today. Hard to see getting a run and has to improve 2-3L today.
Guelph: Big chance off last start run and previous runs up in Sydney. Barrier 13 is certainly an issue and has to run on from very far back.
Metastasio: Will be leading it up and controlling the pace. Won VERY well kicking away the last two starts. This is a huge step up in class but if given a good ride CAN WIN.
Miracles of Life: Speed maps different all around. many suggest will get stuck on rails 3 back.. I suggest they will push further forward today like first and 2nd runs with the horse. The one to beat in the race, only issue is the barrier.
Montsegur: Can’t turn around the form on Guelph and Miracles of Life without them both getting poor rides today. Does speed map well.
Kona Breeze: Not progressive enough tow in today. Could sneak a place if lucky.
Gregers: Average form coming into this, hard to judge how good she is with only the one run. Will position well enough to have a chance.
Godiva Rock: Blocked for run last start and will have the same again today.
Quest For Peace: Handy but not good enough here.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie leg two: 4, 8, 9, 10
Strategy: I am a little worried about the strategy from barrier one with Miracles of Life, but expect them to push up. If she misses the start, she will certainly need luck. 2 units Miracles of Life 1 unit Metastasio.
Caulfield Race 8
Ortensia: How good was she in England last prep! Some simply amazing runs. I suspect she is better suited to a straight course than the corners. Her trial was average at best. She will be coming from the back of the field. Does enjoy Caulfield and has a great first up record and class record. Can’t discount her.
Woorim: Last years winner who did nothing after that win. Was set up by a very strong tempo out front. Up 2.5kg today, hard to see the win, but has a very good first up record.
Barakey: The boom gelding from WA has arrived in Melbourne. 11 from 11 is hard to go past and has won a WFA-G1. Will be leading this race up and down 1.5kg today. Will be there at the finish, no one can dispute that, but WA runners have a horrible record coming over. All wins have been over the 1000-1200 distance and he certainly looks better suited in my eyes by the 1100m.
Spirit of Boom: Speaking of Boom.. Spirit of Boom went very close over at Ascot to running Barakey down. Was blocked for a run. Down 2.5kg today and looks well weighted. Speed maps poorly though in this large field.
Sea Lord: It is hard to dispute this horse who just keeps running on and on and on. Looks a little outclassed but is weighted to run a big race once again. F4 chance.
Adebisi: The form around this horse is sound, but is he a group 1 winner? Could be value.
Facile Tigre: Aimed at this race last year running 3rd, since then failed at everything else. Hard to see the win today.
Lone Rock: Last win was in 2011. Never won at track from 4 starts and won once first up. This looks a bit beyond on recent form.
FreeReturn: Good first up record and weighted well today. Just hard to see the progression… a good runner in lesser company.
Mrs Onassis: Absolutely HUGE trial and off 52.5kg looks very well suited today. Should slot in about 3 back on the outside you would expect and be hitting the line with pace! Has won at track previously and loves the distance.
Rescue Mission: Weighted well today and always runs well at the track. Speed maps well but has never won from 10 starts at class.
Unanimously: Ran ok first up but not in this.
Undeniably: Looks slightly outclassed here even at weights.
Shamal Wind: I suspect the speed maps have her wrong. I have her getting trapped at least 3-4 back on the rails. She looks to be a horse who runs best with a sit and you can’t get that type of run from barrier 1 without luck. Happy to be against today even at the weights.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie leg three: 1, 3, 10, 14
Strategy: Not sure how confident I am in getting involved here. Captain hindsight may tell us post race that $4 for Barakey was HUGE overs. Mrs Onassis is certainly overs here. If Barakey gets above the $1.85-$1.90 quote to place, I don’t see how I can pass it up.
Daniel Bevan from Betfair: Shamal Wind – Dominic Beirne rates her in front of Barakey in his IWS market and thinks the greatest overs in the Oakleigh Plate is Spirit of Boom.
Caulfield Race 9
Spirit Song: One of those horses we simply just love. Always runs a good race especially at Caulfield. Ran 2nd last prep to Solzhenitsyn here over 1600m and the 1400m is a little too short. Still, don’t discount.
Hi Belle: If money comes then may run very well. Personally not a fan of the horse, always hard to find on it’s day. Happy to bet around.
Star Of Giselle: Ignore last start of last prep and look to previous runs where won over 1400 to 1600m including in this class. A little harsh the 58kg today but does run well first up and from barrier 1 will lead this up and be hard to pass. Caulfield late in the day does play out for back markers a fair bit though.
Family Crest: Will be pushing forward again today. Up 2kg. Has great form lines but may find one too good today.
Storm Burst: Ran well first up but New York form lines didn’t hold up next start. Expect to get stuck on rails and need a bit of luck.
Rose Pattern: Rates well today and will enjoy a Good track. Won 3 of last 4 runs. Never won at class is a fairly big concern though. Will run well. Should sit 1 out 1 back.
Bonaria: Didn’t show enough first up to suggest has the progression for me.
Never Forget: Happy to forget on first up run.
Goldslick: Even if you ignore last start, still looks outmatched today.
Vibrant Rouge: May be suited by the pace out front today. A few leaders may push each other and set this up for a swooper. All about the ride.
Minnie Downs: Looks to be big odds today. Will be suited by the pace and be pushing to the line hard.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie leg four: 3, 4, 10, 11
Strategy: Expecting a strong tempo here to set it up for back markers. Will be savering the leader Star of Giselle and backing Vibrant Rouge and Minnie Downs.
Warwick Farm Race 1
Three main chances in this race for mine. Bid Spotter ran well enough to win last start and two back 3rd behind Kinnersley. Weighted to win down in class. Marden just keeps running well and Planetarium was unlucky not to break through last start.
Confidence 65%
Warwick Farm Race 2
Looks to be a fairly open race. Ninth Legion off last start will find this hard today up to 60kg. Turnley was super impressive last start pushing forward and on those times has every chance here today. Zin Zan Eddie was game the last two starts and will be in the finish once again. Knoydart is a super hype horse. Will need to find more today to win this but has every chance.
Confidence 75%
Warwick Farm Race 3
Not keen this race. If anything the first up Snowden Runner in Parfuri looks good odds.
Warwick Farm Race 4
Absolutely stupid price today for Appearance who only won the GP1 last start due to a overly stupid pace out the front. Up 2.kg today and won’t be suited by the track. Looks a lay to me. Colorado Claire looks the main danger today off weights, but I am fairly keen on Nocturnelle who is rated to win this.
Confidence 80%
Warwick Farm Race 5
A couple of strong runners here. The two we like the most are No Bad Blood who ran a huge time from start to finish last start and down 3.5kg today can win. The other is Deceiver. Ignore last start and can win on previous form. Finally, you have to saver Jacquinot Bay. Has the class to win this even off that average trial.
Confidence 65%
Warwick Farm Race 6
Impossible to go past Glencadam Gold here. Will get an easy lead and his racing style is suited to a Warwick Farm kind of track. Berry is the right man to be riding him and will simply outstay them all kicking away at the corner. Laser Hawk looks to be the main rival.
Confidence 80%
Warwick Farm Race 7
Streama looks crazy short here considering never won first up and only once from 8 at distance. The one we like here is Skytrain who is down 1.5kg today after a strong run in harder company at course and distance (2nd).
Confidence 75%
Warwick Farm Race 8
Hard to go past Havana Rey here today down in class. Loves the track and won so well last start.
Confidence 70%
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