Welcome to the Racing write up for Saturday 22 September 2012. Last week our Best Bet Happy Trails did us proud winning gamely. Our best value at $41/$7 Fictional Account got done by a nose! So close! Our lays were very disappointing going 4/6 and around the tracks we went 2/4 on our best bets.
As always, this is only a guide and you should combine your own form with our thoughts if you are placing a wager. Confidence factors are very important in our write ups and most of all remember that if we put down two horses in a race to have a bet on, that means we are on both. You can view last week’s results including a review of each race here. Good luck and happy Punting!
Betting Specials
Betstar is offering from 8am in the morning Double price on all runners in Group 1s tomorrow (R6 Randwick and R7 Caulfield) maximum bet of $50 so worth having a go on there.
Luxbet is offering Best TOte Exotics on all meetings that feature a Group 1 Race (Randwick + Caulfield today).
Luxbet is offering a maximum $200 bonus bet equal to your stake for any Fixed Odds or LuxDiv Win on any Group 1 Race.
Sportsbet are giving your money back if your horse runs 2nd in the Underwood Stakes ($100 Maximum bet win only)
Sportingbet are offering best tote Exotics including Quaddies throughout the Melbourne + Sydney Spring Racing Carnivals.
Caulfield Best Bet
Race 4 Dream Face
Randwick Best Bet
Race 3 Jacquinot Bay (Best bet of the day)
Morphetville Best Bet
Race 5 Draw Forward
Doomben Best Bet
Race 4 Say No More
Best Value
Caulfield Race 9 – Gossip Girl (Best value of the day)
Caulfield Race 8 – Single Minded
Caulfield Race 6 – Lady of Harrods
Best Lays
1. Caulfield Race 1 Twilighting
2. Caulfield Race 4 Anise
3. Caulfield Race 5 Menados
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters Paradise – http://www.puntersparadise.com.au/form-guide/
Watch previous runs here – http://bigpondvideo.com/Horse_Racing
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means a speculation pick.
Caulfield Race 1
Shopaholic had a disappointing last prep but does have a good first up 2 wins 1 place from 4 and 2 wins from 2 at track. Back in a smaller field and should get an easier run and go close.
Let’s Be Happy surprised everyone winning very well last start. Comes into this at course, distance and most likely similar track conditions and same weight (different rider) with a good chance. The question you have to ask is if this is as competitive a race?
Kneeling was super two back at Moonee Valley but was super disappointing going more forward last start. Down 1.5kg which could help and happy to give another shot as there was a massive wind that day which meant no leaders had a hope at winning.
Chivvy resumed strongly this prep 0.5 and 0.8L away from winning both starts. Weighted well but step up 200m more is a quesiton mark. Will get a solid ride from barrier 5.
Tranquera is one who could run a sneaky race. Weighted well here and has ran well last five runs this prep never really out of it. First time on a non-wet track for a long time and could have been waiting for this.
Confidence 70%
Caulfield Race 2
This is a pretty poor race for a 80k purse!
Let’s start with Escado. Came 2nd in a much easier race at Mornington. On previous form should go well but might find this too strong.
Right to Roam ran ok last two runs but will have to improve big time to win this. Up in distance could suit on breeding.
Bradman isn’t the worst in this race after winning a decently run 1400m last start. They obviously thought something of this colt as they put it in a 2YO-G2 with Rawiller on board. Could run really well.
Committed won very well first up as a $1.30 favourite. Step up in class here but should do this as easily if last run was to go off. Barrier 14 is a big concern at the price.
High Esteem with the Moody/Nolen combo seems a strong horse. Won well over 1400m last start and this is a big step up but the time of that race was solid and breeding will go well up in class.
Hvasstan is a Fastnet Rock Colt who won a fairly average maiden at Sale. May find this a little too hard but hard to tell as two previous runs were on heavy.
Rawnaq in with a chance on form.
Confidence 65%
Caulfield Race 3
The Travelling man won a strongly won course distance and conditions race first up last prep. Seems to have gone backwards since then but could run well.
Planet Voyage has been progressing nicely and may find best on a non-wet track from barrier 1.
Crystal Web won well first up and ran on strongly the second run also. Down 3kg after a long prep and could produce a winning run.
Magnier could win on form lines.
Tough race for Royal Rada but will go close on form.
Kolonga has a big chance on weights if runs up to first up run.
Confidence 70%
Caulfield Race 4
Forgive first up run of Canali after being galloped on and look to strong run before. Back to a shorter straight which suits and should run strongly.
Kulgrinda back to Caulfield is a big chance. Nice first up form 2 wins 1 place but only 1 place from 3 at track. Does enjoy a dead track.
Utah Saints but in some solid runs last prep and does run well first up. This isn’t his best trip but could surprise.
Dream Face is weighted to win here. Down 6.5kg from a very strong win at course last start. Super hard to beat here.
The Long Road is one hard to place here. Weighted well and back down to 1100, could run very well.
Hot Spin runs very well at course and track condition. May not be up to this though.
Petman ran solidly last prep but will have to improve to have a chance here.
Confidence 80%
Caulfield Race 5
Launay was solid last start out the front on a day leaders were not suited. Could return strongly here.
Blackie is an interesting runner. Won 2 from 3 2nd up and has won 4 from 5 at distance. Didn’t show a lot first up and also wasn’t super last prep. Might go strongly here.
Testacana showed enough first up to suggest could runs trongly again here.
Dustry Star showed enough also last start to suggest could run a game race here.
Eraset is an interesting runner. Doesn’t ever start well first up but does run well over course and distance. Worth some thought.
Veewap was the run of the race last start at Flemington. Is due a win and could find it here.
Confidence 80%
Caulfield Race 6
A fairly tough race this one to choose with quite a few chances.
Lady of Harrods won very well in harder class last up. Up 3kg for this and up 200m. Has won 2 of 3 at this track and if you ignore two back run, is in super form. Looks to be overs from barrier 1.
Members Joy came back better than ever last start with a big win at Flemington. Have to be thinking the very slow 1100m time helped her. Up 2.5kg for that win and will run well but will she win?
Bloomingdale Miss up in class big time here but down 4kg. Easy start to finish win last start and this is a much tougher task.
Donna Cattiva lost a plate last start so can be forgiven. Could run well.
Commanding Jewel has big wraps and wasn’t super impressive last start. This is a much harder race and same weight. Will be tested.
Proper Madam put in a super run last start but may be sitting a tad too far back today.
Ignore first up run of Dazzler if you like her. Could run a game race out of the Snowden yard. Expect to sit further forward today.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie Leg 1: 1, 3, 8, 10
Caulfield Race 7
Manighar will be suited by the step up 200m here but the shorter straight means his move will have to be on the turn. Will go very close.
Winchester is overs here. Hasn’t run for almost a year which is a little tough but won a Group 1 and placed in a group 2 and group 3 in 3 of last 4 runs. Has the form to go well.
Sincero was super in winning last start but there is a question on this horse on a dead track and also on the distance. He is super strong we can all agree that and will certainly go close.
Drunken Sailor is very interesting. 1 win 3 places from 4 at distance and 3 wins 4 places from 7 at start so just keeps going very well. Could surprise a lot at a big price.
December Draw received a vet exam after a disappointing first up run. Should go better this start and you could easily forgive that run.
Mawingo not up to this on ratings.
Sanagas is to be forgiven for first up run. On form will run very well here and should hopefully go forward from barrier 1. Has the times and ability to go very well over this trip having won WFA-G1s in USA.
Ocean Park put in two solid runs in Australia before going back to New Zealand for a WFA-G1 which it won. This is a big step up in class so happy to take it on especially coming from so far back.
Finally, Southern Speed is consistent. Ran well first three starts this prep and will continue to run super.
Confidence 85%
Quaddie Leg 2: 1, 3, 10, 13, 14
Caulfield Race 8
Ignore first up run of Seville. Should run a solid race if has trained on like we suspect.
Shenzhou Steeds back in class here down to a more suitable weight should run very well and also up to a distance that suits. Will be hard to hold out.
Zurella was strong first up and will improve going up to 2000m. Wasn’t the best in the race last start but should go well.
Cuban Sunday won very well last start but suspect may have been a fluke with the way the race was won. Happy to be against.
Happy to ignore first up run of Single Minded on a day when wasn’t suited with huge winds. Down 4.5kg and is weighted to win here.
Exceptionally is in super form. Last three runs has won once and placed 2nd twice 0.2l and 0.4l off. Weighted well only issue is barrier 18.
Folding Gear should run strongly but needs to find a fair bit here from last run.
Streets Away up in distance again. May not be suited but going strongly this prep.
Sea Galleon could run well but didn’t look suited from so far back at Flemington. Doubt can win here.
Mr O’Ceirin a victim of the pace last start also. Forgive run.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie Leg 3: 1, 3, 7, 9, 10, 16
Caulfield Race 9
This is a super hard race to choose from so your get out stakes isn’t looking great.
Most likely ignore first up run of Mosheen on a straight. Will much prefer the corner and should run strongly.
Hurtle Myrtle isn’t the best first up horse but this is a much weaker class than used to. Does run well at distance.
Combat Kitty first up off this weight should find this a little hard.
Newitt Booked on Alberton Park is interesting. Does have a super first up record and down in class for this race.
Soft Sand is a horse that has been super disappointing. Does have a 3 from 3 first up record but was a MUCH easier race last prep to break it off. Think she will struggle to get control of this race.
Mrs Onassis down from a super run in Sydney. Will go close.
Gossip Girl‘s form lines are super coming into this race. Rawiller riding and down in class and weight. Almost held off Happy Trails in Adelaide with SOuthern Speed finishing behind. If reproduces similar run can win this.
Total Attraction will be there or there abouts at the end right again.
Detours will find a run here today and produce a contest.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg 4: 1,6,8,10,12
Randwick Race 1
A very competitive opener for the day.
Ninth Legion has run very well his first three runs this prep and should get the run to win here. Expect him to go close.
King of Olympia ran very strongly second up and could find best here.
Randwick Race 2
Many chances in this race. Agueda keeps finding just one too good for her and this is a step up once again. Red Excitement put down a solid time first up and is down 2.5kg from that run. Could go well.
Relaxed and Happy will be tested here.
Ichihara is a horse with a lot of upside but will also be tested here.
The one we want to be on returning is Raceway. Back down to a distance that suits and has the class.
Confidence 65%
Randwick Race 3
Put up as our best of the day early in the week, Jacquinot Bay was super last start when suffering huge interference around the turn. Should have ran on and beat Strawberry Boy. Up in class here but down 1.5kg. Gets a good run and simply wins this.
Confidence 95%
Randwick Race 4
Dear Demi is the class in this field. Hard to see any of them improving past her here.
Confidence 80%
Randwick Race 5
Ignore last start of Said Com. Was slowly away and also blocked for runs. Is out to a nice E/W price today and will run very solidly.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie Leg 1: 2,4,6
Randwick Race 6
Shoot Out is the class runner here and is simply unders. Getting a great price today.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie Leg 2: 1,3,5,8
Randwick Race 7
Mourayan Ran on gamely last start at Flemington and will enjoy the up in distance here. Very hard to run down. Lights of Heaven was a big forgive last start. Happy to keep the money on her here.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg 3: 1,3,5,8,11
Randwick Race 8
This is a super hard race to pick with many chances. Can’t be on Rain Affair after disappointing first up run. Manawanui is super overs having never missed a place over this distance and having won 4 placed 3 from 9 at class. Happy Zero also can’t be ignored after two massive runs last prep.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg 4: 1,2,3,4,5,17
Doomben Race 1
Gunner Knox is returning today after last run a few months back being very strong behind Solzhenitsyn over this course and distance. Will go close.
Confidence 70%
Doomben Race 3
Huge first up win by Grayson Square and should improve on from that run here.
Confidence 70%
Doomben Race 4
Say No More is MAJORLY down in class here. Has won in Group 1 company and in FM-GP1. Won 4 of last 5 runs and is suited here. WIll simply just win!
Confidence 90%
Doomben Race 6
Huge first up run by Silver Command in a massively fast time. Down 3kg here and should simply just bolt in.
Confidence 85%
Doomben Race 7
Empress Me is a very interesting mare coming from 3YO class. Has the ability and times to simply just win this.
Confidence 75%
Morphetville Race 4
Pepin Hoaks has travelled over to Morphetville today from Melbourne. Runs well over this distance and comes into race down in class and off 56.5kg which is fair. Should run gamely.
Confidence 70%
Morphetville Race 5
Draw Forward super run in Melbourne last start and this is a major step down in class. Suited by distance and acceptable weights. Very hard to beat!
Confidence 80%
Morphetville Race 7
Super hard race to win. Bagman will be very hard to beat here and deserves to be favourite. My Bentley has the quality to run a bold race and will enjoy the up in distance. Finally, Gailileo Gold shouldn’t be overlooked.
Confidence 80%
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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