Welcome to the Racing write up for Saturday 1 September 2012 the first day of Spring! The Profits are off to the Caulfield races for the launch of the Spring racing carnival! As always, this is only a guide and you should combine your own form with our thoughts if you are placing a wager. Confidence factors are very important in our write ups and most of all remember that if we put down two horses in a race to have a bet on, that means we are on both. Our best bet Miss Jones was huge last week winning at $6s. Let’s hope we can reproduce a similar run this week. You can view last week’s results including a review of each race here. Good luck and happy Punting!
Best Bet
Rosehill Race 4 – Spinnawitch
Didn’t produce anywhere near what was expected. Our 2nd best in this race Thumbtacks produced the run of the race and at least made our money back. The step up in class proved too much after two big runs it seems.
Best Value
Caulfield Race 6 – Happy Trails
A change of tactics taking Happy Trails from what is normally a dead last run to a front (settled 4th/5th) run which we haven’t seen from this horse before due to the bias of the track. Was a HUGE run considering the change of tactics and finished strongly for second. Happy Trails will produce a lot this spring and will win a very big race. Shortened from $100 to $40 on Cox Plate betting while Caulfield Cup betting has shorten $30 also. Seems by the money they will be going Cox Plate way.
Best Lays – 3/3
1. Caulfield Race 1 – Mareeza
Something went wrong with the horse half way down the straight where it looked like it would threaten for the win and fell out of it. Was always a lay for us in this race was far too short.
2. Caulfield Race 6 – Rekindled Interest
Produced nothing as expected in this class. The leader bias did help us of course.
3. Caulfield Race 8 – Offenders
Didn’t offer up anything as expected and was also a good lay.
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters Paradise – http://www.puntersparadise.com.au/form-guide/
Watch previous runs here – http://bigpondvideo.com/Horse_Racing
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means a speculation pick.
Caulfield Race 1
Bloomingdale Miss won very well two runs back at course. The step up in distance should be fine. Jumped badly last start and never a chance from that far back. Should run very well.
Real Stole was super impressive with her first win but has shown nothing since. Fancy others over her.
High Aims won solidly two back in similar class over 1200m on a Heavy but was defeated last up in a lesser class. Up in class here against tougher horses, should find this one a little too hard off the weight.
Legcut has been impressive the last two runs with solid wins. Certainly warrants respect here after putting down some solids times in the wet.
Mareeza with Nolen on board looks to have gone backwards this prep with the last two runs that can’t be put down to Heavy gr ounds as she won first up on heavy. Happy to be on others.
Lonhruge was impressive stepping out last time beating home High Arms. Up 2.5kg into this grade.. could run a very solid race but previous run behind Bloomingdale Miss didn’t show enough.
Walk With Attitude won a 3F-Maiden in a very very slow 1300m time on a Good track by a huge 4.8L. Just can’t see it stepping up and winning here.
Finally, we look at the FULL sister to a handy horse called Zabeelionaire called Gondokoro. Gondokoro is the horse you want to look at in this race. Down in class after failing first up due to track conditions. Should get a track to suit today.. down 3.5kg from last run and breeding is solid. You are specing backing this but surely is overs.
Confidence: 70%
A good race which showed us the massive leader bias. Bloomingdale Miss jumped strongly and took an easy lead, was able to put on a slowish pace up front and was way too strong off the top weight. Massive run. Gondokoro didn’t produce anything for us. It was always a spec and didn’t work out. Legcut had a poor run and is a horse only to back on wet for us now.
Caulfield Race 2
Spirit Song. So good to see this lady returning for us. Made us a fair bit of cash last prep is 6 firsts and three seconds. Looks set returning here. 1 win 1 place at Caulfield and 4 wins 2 places in class. Comes in with 58.5kg on board which is fair and Purcell always brings her back fit. Will be very hard to beat.
Never Forget is a horse.. to forget.
Midnight Martini looks to be the main danger for Spirit Song here. Has won twice at distance from 4 starts and 1/1 from 6 at Caulfield. 0/1 from 3 first up is a worry though. Should run solidly.
Bliss Street can be forgiven for the first up run on a Heavy track. Back in class and off a nice weight, looks good apart from second up record of 0/0 from 3. Has won at track and does go ok at distance. Should be in this.
Not very keen on Biancon Rose at all. Does seem to have a nice weight on its back off 52kg but the previous four runs of the horse haven’t been within 2.3L of winning. Didn’t go well first up at all either.
Barbie’s Bombshell looks to be outclassed here.
Twilighting is a horse that has some class and claims. Won well two back leading start to finish but that was a much lesser class than this.
God Help her isn’t the worst horse in this race on form lines. Was 3.8L behind Spirit Song last start and would have had to have trained on hugely to get closer here.
Confidence: 80%
Spirit Song was out of this race about 100m after the jump. Went back in the race instead of sitting 2nd-4th as normally produces. Didn’t run on. Bliss Street had a vet exam after the race and was coughing so forgive for run. Leader bias worked out well for Never Forget and the winner Let’s be Happy who produced a run head and shoulders above the last three runs this prep.
Caulfield Race 3
Celebrity Girl starts from barrier 14 which obviously doesn’t suit back to 100m. 3 first up runs 3 wins is a fair record and this is the lowest grade run in a long time. Enjoys a dead ground and should be hard to beat here. Only issue is the 60kg but should get a run to suit.
Dream Face is a hard horse to place but if she continues the Darwin form as Galbraith did coming down here, she has a big hope. Moody/Nolen now with this horse who will be expected to lead this race up. All records in her favour.
Anise is 4 starts fro 2 wins 2 places at distance and 1 win 2 places first up from 3. Is best ridden mid to front of field and last prep started slowly twice. This is an easier race but would have to have trained on big time to win this.
Light Express not up to this grade.
Ravenous Lass is one to watch this prep. had a massive prep last start and you can ignore the last run. Runs very fast 1000m races and could run a race where no one passes her. Big chance.
Flash of Doubt is weighted very well today off 51kg. Hasn’t missed a place on dead before and will go well here.
Sharnee Rose is a quality horse who has NEVER won a race! This is a step down in grade and she is weighted well. Has placed all 3 runs on track and all 3 starts at distance. She will finish strongly but rather be with others.
And Rock isn’t the worst in the race. Quality form behind Lady Antebellum in a quality race off 60kg. Comes into this race with 54kg and could run well off a long break.
Confidence: 70%
Ravenous Lass couldn’t get across early and was kept out by Dream Face and was made to go three wide almost the whole trip. Nolen gave Dream Face the perfect ride and we were stupid to overlook. Our write up pointed towards the horse, only query was the last run it had that put us off. And Rock didn’t produce much at all. Sharnee Rose was the run of this race by far. Made up a huge amount of ground late and as we predicted would finish strongly. Placed again as our write up said, the one to watch from the race.
Caulfield Race 4
Underestimation did nothing last start but was never given the chance to produce being taken to the back and made to produce something not in him. Is 1 win from 1 2nd up which is positive and does enjoy a dead ground with his win four back coming on a dead leading at MV from start to finish. Jumps from barrier 2 so expect a more forward run today. Only issue is slow times.
Amorino was a quality runner eariler in the year but looking at his record you could be fooled for thinking that he wants shorter than 1200m . Could still run a good race.
Elite Elle was super last up here and has increased her winning streak to four in a row. Could produce best here again. Slight issue with Zahra on board and not Oliver.
Kabayan‘s run behind Sizzling last start over 1600m was dominant when you consider he lost a plate. Waterhouse gets the best out of her horses and you simply can’t discount him here. Will be there at the end and certainly go close.
Shamexpress has slow times and looks outclassed.
About Square looks to be an ok horse. Could run a solid race first up in Australia.
If I Could for Kavanagh yard. 3rd start and you never know how these are going to go for Kav. A watch for us.
Sheer Talent doesn’t look to have enough here but was an impressive maiden win in a slowish time.
A bit of mail around for Force Command but didn’t look good enough to me with the first run at Caulfield a while back.
Lady of Harrods can be forgiven for not handling the track condition last start. Forgive if you backed last start. Will prefer the dead track and down 2kg suits from barrier 5.
Confidence: 80%
A hugely disappointing race for us. Elite Elle could only manage 4th and Kabayan just missed the win on the line with Lady Harrods producing a huge start to finish race. If you backed last start and forgave like we said, you cashed in big time, if you were also realising the leader bias in this race, you hopefully had a go with the horse back on a dead/good track and down 2kg. A huge run and one to watch. They are looking at much better races for this horse going forward.
Caulfield Race 5
One of the best races of the day. There are quite a few with big chances here today.
The first is the obvious favourite in Golden Archer. Was super first up and actually meets FreeReturn 1kg better off after beating him by 2L! Suspect the Slow ground did him in last run and will be hard to beat on a dead track. My issue is that I suspect he is best on a Straight track.
Platelet was SUPER last start at course and distance winning a much harder race than this. She is the value of the race and will be very hard to beat.
Mr Make Believe is certainly an interesting runner. Has won first up, won at track and is a front runner our of the Moody camp. Has won this class twice before. If trained on well over the last five months, could be a sneaky chance.
Dee’N’Gee is a super horse and would go off favourite in any race easier than this on the card today. Weighted well and will get a dream run from barrier two. On form it seems like he prefers a dead track. Tiger Tees form line holds up but other races that he actually won were much easier than this. Should run a very solid race.
Glows battled on strongly last start to finish a bold 3rd behind Lady Melksham. Will they take her to the lead today? From barrier 8 it might be the only option. Speed maps suggest glows can get a sit behind Mr Make Believe who will lead up which could give her the run of the race with a decent weight on her back.
Rue Maple meets Glows 1.5kg better off here who finished side by side last start. Rue Maple from Barrier 1 will also get a gun run and I hope they push her up to get the sit behind MR Make Believe. A very sneaky big chance.
Confidence: 65%
Quaddie: Go wide this race. Very wide. 1,3,7,9,10
The leader bias certainly treated Golden Archer to an easy win in this race. Platelet ran on gamely for third and Mr Make Believe off the leader bias snuck in for 2nd with a great run. The backmarkers didn’t do anything this race as you would expect.
Caulfield Race 6
We are in for a treat with this race.
Starting at the top. Heart of Dreams who was a lay last start is one we still can’t fancy. From barrier 15 looks like it will struggle to get a decent run.
Voila Ici the italian horse that is setting for the cups looks to be wanting much longer than 1400m.
Sincero. Oh we love this boy but he hasn’t placed in his last seven runs and has cost us a fortune. Word is that he has trained on very strongly and 1400m is more the distance he should be aimed at. Barrier 4 suits but Statistical Analysis of Sporting Eventswith a 2 wins 0 places from 10 starts on dead compared to 8 wins 1 place on good, you wonder if the dead tracks are a concern? 1L and 1.5L in two of last three runs, behind More Joyous but that to rest. Will be strong here.
MaLuckyDay Has been off nearly a year now and has won and placed at this distance before. Is certainly a chance but would rather others.
LuckyGray was super last start failing to handle the conditions and back to dead will be super hard to beat. May have to sit further back than they would like from barrier 12 but should still run on solidly as long as not blocked for a run (which we think he might be).
Rekindled Interest always battles on strongly but we think is outclassed here.
Green Moon was super first up over the 1600m in a very very fast time. Up 2kg on that run and down to 1400m, we do give him a hope but would rather a step UP in distance. Aimed at bigger things.
Second Effort can’t be discounted just because of the ground with 3 wins from last five starts with one of those on a Good track.
Sanagas is one to watch. WFA-G1 long distance winner from the US, you never know what these things can produce first up over a shorter distance.
Finally, the one we have been waiting for all week is Happy Trails. Put in a super run at Morphetville first up this prep and was simply super behind More Joyous coming from dead last and on another track in the Doncaster. This horse is going to win something big this Spring. Get on for this race and get on for Cox/Caulfield before the race because the price won’t last if he does produce the run we expect.
Confidence: 75%
Quaddie: 3, 8, 11, 12, 14
Almost! Happy Trails a huge run, will win next up on a non leader-biased track when gets to run the correct race. Green Moon finished strongly but I didn’t think it was as impressive as most people said, it made up ground passing horses which were not under pressure or being pushed on. Sincero put in a very strong win but as we said, 1400 is the distance he should be aimed at. The big issue was the ground coming in and if we knew a good ground was to be had at this time, we would have had it in the picture instead of Green Moon. More adjustment in-play needs to be seen from our tips in the future.
Caulfield Race 7
Tanby ran on solidly last start and comes into this down 2.5kg and up in distance which will suit. Is a big chance here.
Avienus is another with a big chance. Down 2.5kg and up to the 1700m which also suits. Will enjoy the dead ground.
Folding Gear has some good form under him and you can ignore first up start. Think this is probably a little too hard for him.
Streets Away is one you can’t be against here. Weighted well and loves this type of distance. Won well last start at Course and distance. Big issue is Boss has hoped off him!
Banca Mo is getting away with murder jumping with 54kg today. Super effort the last two runs and will run well here again. Much harder field than the last run but deserves to be favourite.
Mr O’Ceirin is a horse with a lot of talent. On form you would think 1700m is slightly too short for him and he would like it a little wetter. The 4 wins from 5 on dead is good form but if it gets towards the good zone, won’t run well. Still, should run very well.
Forty Thirty has had too many chances. Can’t back him here. Will still run well.
Galileo Gold is coming to the end of his prep it looks like off the last run. Not up to this.
Confidence: 80%
Quaddie: 2,3,5,7,9
It seemed like they simply went too hard too early in this race up front and set it up for finally some back markers to win something today. Banca Mo suffered a bit of interference and lost a few places and never gained up ground. Was a very un-Banca-mo like run. Avienus battled on strongly for 4th. Not sure there is much to take out of this race apart from Mr O’Ceirin being unlucky getting smashed by Forty Thirty on the turn. Got the feeling that if Streets Away didn’t get caught up in that and if Bossy was actually on board, could have won it still.
Caulfield Race 8
Sneak A Peek with Moody and Nolen is a horse that beat 7th Cup favourite Jakkalberry over in Italy last prep. Has only really ever ran the longer distances and is untested at this distance. Can handle a good or heavy track and has a very good record. You can’t discount Sneak a Peek.
Precedence can be discounted over this distance.
Parthian won very well first up and should improve on again here with another solid run. Down 1.5kg from last start off claim but wide barrier makes it harder.
Val Champ is still very young but showed some strong international form over longer distances. Ran well over 1800m so could go well over 1400m (has placed before).
Dusty Star was super unlucky last start with many excuses. Could find best today.
Chase the Rainbow was solid last prep and the word around is that CTR has trained on well but surely is far too short here.
Finally, Balzeus is a talented horse with a lot of ability. Ignore last start, should run much better here.
Confidence: 80%
Quaddie: 3, 5, 7, 13
Chase the Rainbow was far too short the night before at $3.50 but amazingly drifted (probably because we didn’t tip it) to $7 on the day. Dusty Star but in a strong run for 2nd while Parthian didn’t run on well. Precedence ran a brave race over the distance but was simply a Chase the Rainbow show!
Roeshill Race 1
Flinders City went large last start at Doomben beating home $1.80 favourite Hidden Kisses leading from start to finish. Off 53kg here, can run a very strong race once again. Delzera will also run well and Nocturnelle is the one to beat here.
Confidence: 70%
Rosehill Race 2
Chez Harmony is a massive chance at this run. Meets Longport 2kg better off and will get a nice run from barrier 4. There are questions about Proisir but from Ms Waterhouse’s stable, will run well.
Confidence: 65%
Rosehill Race 3
One of the hardest races of the day. So many chances. Prince Pedro is a massive chance in this race. HardBreak Hotel won well for us last start with a huge run. Down 3kg from that run, could find best here also.
Confidence: 65%
Rosehill Race 4
Another very open race. Spinnawitch is the value in this race for us down in class off a big win second up. Winning form is good form. Thumbtacks ran strongly last start beating home Bello and can’t be ignored. Soledad meets Gangstas Choice 4kg better off today and will beat him home on weights.. but suspect he will will find the 1500m a little too far and is looking to go back to 1200m distance.
Confidence: 80%
Rosehill Race 5
All Too hard didn’t produce even close to what was expected last start. Pierro was simply super last prep. We will agree that 1200m is a little short for his best but he was undefeated over the distance last start and should continue to be.
Confidence: 70%
Simply huge. Was the easiest money of the day.
Rosehill Race 6
Stout Hearted could very well win easily again here. Gazza Guru was strong last start and could run well. Happy to not bet here.
Rosehill Race 7
O’Reilly’s Prize looks to be under the radar coming into this race for MS Waterhouse. Should run a very strong race on form lines. Peck should also run a very strong race.
Confidence: 65%
Rosehill Race 8
Emotional Circus and Next the Universe returning will run very solid races. Both will be hard to hold out on form.
Confidence: 70%
Great ride and great win for Emotional Circus. Next the Universe looking for a softer race than this.
Eagle Farm Race 1
Racing Heart comes into this race better placed and from barrier one which suits. Will run a solid race and be hard to run down.
Confidence: 70%
Eagle Farm Race 2
A super hard race to pick a winner in but we will give it a shot anyway!
Danagaze is certainly the value of the race having ran strong races in this class of race before. Ran well first up behind SmartsMeUp and should continue on here. Grey Assignment put in a super run last start and looks suited by the 1500m.
Confidence: 70%
Eagle Farm Race 4
Carry to Fortune comes into this race off 51kg and should simply be too strong from barrier 4 and lead this out at a nice pace.
Confidence: 65%
Eagle Farm Race 5
Like the look Javelentia at a big price. Should run a solid race.
Confidence: 65%
Eagle Farm Race 6
The toppies in this race are the two to beat. Dienekes looks a huge chance today and Erinsea will be hard to beat, weighted well.
Confidence: 80%
Eagle Farm Race 7
Chandra stepping up to a more suitable distance of 1400m. Should run a very solid race and is a great E/W chance.
Confidence: 75%
Eagle Farm Race 8
Flying Jet put in some big runs last prep and should have trained on enough to win this race off a very nice weight.
Confidence: 65%
Morphetville Race 6
Crabs is a quality horse and has run some very strong races down in Melbourne recently. 56kg is VERy fair for this horse with a lot of potential and he will come up on top back in this lesser grade.
Confidence: 80%
Our only tip for Morphetville, Crabs domianted winning by nearly 2 lengths. Always look for a horse coming from Melbourne to Adelaide and you will get a good ride for your money. Was very much overs at $4.50.
Hastings (NZ) Race 8
A big race over the 1400m and the horse that sticks out here is certainly Mufhasa. He was all quality last prep and will continue that on this prep. From barrier 5 will get a easy time going forward and is 4 wins from 7 starts first up.
Confidence: 75%
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