With the midweek Boxing Day races, we are given some fairly poor fields tonight at Cranbourne. As always, there are a few good horses going around and some decent bets to be had. Let’s hope our Melbourne Form doesn’t play out as it did on Boxing Day (shockingly – although Sydney went very well). As always, we hope your form matches up with ours. Don’t forget to check out our Big Bash form for this evening (the Heat to win). Good luck and happy punting!
Best Bet
Race 6 Peninsula Dane (To Place)
Next Best
Race 5 Mulaazem
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters Paradise – http://www.puntersparadise.com.au/form-guide/
Watch previous runs here – http://bigpondvideo.com/Horse_Racing
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means a speculation pick.
Cranbourne Race 1
Bel Seal: Ran 3rd of 9 last start as $2.90 favourite at Moonee Valley last start. Had a Vet exam as was expected to run much better. If produces what breeding suggets, hard to beat today.
Ice Chiller: Strong run in a much easier race last start. Should run well again and go close.
Kayak: Disappointing second first up at Bendigo. Up 1kg today. Was able to control the race last start in a slowish time and was still beaten 0.8L. Has to have improved.
Malinga: Hard to back on first up run where was below poor.
Pleasant Harmony: Market your only guide with no siblings to look for form through.
Shot Caller: Not the worst breeding going around but certainly not as classy as others in this race. Market will guide.
The Unexpected: Produced three solid runs first up in maidens. If trained on will be very hard to beat today.
Twin Spires: Needs to find another 1-2L today.
Golden Tart: Very average trial. Hard to have today.
Taraji: Market is your only guide.
Confidence 70%
Cranbourne Race 2
Belli Laugh: Hasn’t shown enough last three starts to suggest can win today from this barrier.
Cosmic Del Rio: Solid run first up from the back of the field in a race that wasn’t run for backmarkers. If positions more forward today could run a solid race.
Mum And I: Never placed at this distance but did show strong form lines last prep. Could surprise if trained on with so long off and the claim helps.
Sir Squiggle: Ran a very strong race first up but will find it hard today from barrier 15.
Te Aroha: Can’t have on previous form. Must have imrpoved 5-6L since last prep.
The Talker: Strong runs last prep and if goes forward again today could be very hard to pass if trained on very well. Only issue is up 3kg today.
Chit Chat: Never placed at this distance from 3 tries. Seems to be suited to further but is weighted nicely off 55kg today.
Hermosa: Didn’t show enough last prep or first up to suggest can win today.
St Carlingwood: Won a barrier trial but will have to improve again today.
Tycoon Trice: Doesn’t look a winner.
Gas Burner: Didn’t look a winner on first prep. Needs to have found a new gear.
Tiara Royale: Can’t have on either of first two preps.
Confidence 60%
Cranbourne Race 3
Country Song: Not a winner.
Excelsior Lad: Market will be your guide. Didn’t show anything first up but could run better today.
Lucky Elvis: Poor this prep. Hard to have.
Mykola: Trained on a little this prep. Has to improve today but a win wouldn’t shock.
Soltero: Threatened to win three back and since then has been disappointing. Hard to take a short price on him today.
Take Liberty: Lead out a very slow pace last start and couldn’t win. Will try and lead up again from barrier 12. Could go close with Duric on board.
Perfect Parma: Decent first up at Moonee Valley but still needs to find another 1.5-2L.
Soo ‘Em: Can’t have on last prep runs.
Two Left: Not a winner.
La Reilly: Could produce best this run. Has the ability to be a winner.
Lady Montana: Doesn’t seem classy enough to win this.
Benzaiten: Not a winner.
Confidence 60%
Cranbourne Race 4
Carousel Queen: Strong trial over 1300m. Could run well today.
Fiji Princess: Should have broken through last prep but didn’t return well first up this prep. Second up a strong run but needs to improve today.
Luminova: Zabeel mare which threatened to win a few times over in New Zealand. Been off almost a year and with Moody yard now. Should be ready to win today. Market will tell you if it is winning.
No Imperfections: Not classy enough to break through this prep here.
First Bloom: Two of the last three runs have been strong enough to win today. May struggle to get a good position from barrier 15 today though.
Galleries: Disappointing last start. Barrier 14 an issue but should have the ability out of Moody yard to run well.
Goddess Of War: Didn’t show enough trialing to suggest can win today.
Orasun: Good run last start and barrier 2 to suit. Can go close today.
Global Balance: Last start suggests not good enough but may positon more forward today from barrier 5.
Bon Fuoco: Not a winner.
Confidence 70%
Cranbourne Race 5
Mulaazem: Huge 10L win on heavy last start over the 1300m in 2YO class. Weighted fairly here today and if reproduces any of last start runs, just wins today.
Grafstorm: Down in class today after a strong last prep. Last start was very impressive when lost a plate and ran 1L away from winning in harder company. Only up 1kg today. Could be value.
Lenguita: Won well in maiden company two back but was outclassed last start. Has the ability and could threaten.
Sacred Script: Has ability but on first up this prep run doesn’t look classy enough. Never won second up.
Bonne Nuit: Runs solid races but just keeps finding a few too good. Looks to be a harder than normal class race for her today.
Greystone: Not good enough for this.
One Moment: Good win last start in maiden company. Been off 6 months and could have trained on very well. One to watch.
Swingin’ Willie: Not good enough.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie leg one: 1, 2, 8
Cranbourne Race 6
Cavallo Nero: Ignore last start and look to previous three runs. Runs well at distance and first up. Will need to get a bit of luck in running to win but is the best horse in the race.
Dimi The Dancer: Ran on well last start when didn’t go forward as we expected. Today from barrier 3 should position much clsoer to the front. Has the ability to grab a place and potentially win.
The Counterfeiter: Only won 1 from 14 at this distance. Has the ability but from barrier 11 today, will find it hard to break through in this class.
Fire and Flood: A horse that has done a lot of travelling around this prep. Keeps putting in solid runs never being more than 2L off. Position too far back today from barrier 10 for mine.
Mondano: Not been progressive enough this prep. Up in class today, harshly weighted.
Peninsula Dane: Super disappointing two of the last three runs. Far down in class today and from barrier 5 can position forward. Ready to win today.
Aeraise: All the ability in the world from last few runs. Only just won last start and needs to improve again today off this weight. Could go close.
Belle Ez: Looks progressive and won in a solid time last start. Could threaten.
Miss Mazzeo: Not the worst run last start behind Vibrant Rouge but from barrier 12 will find it hard today to win.
Frankly Fast: Weighted nicely today up in class with claim. As long as gets a good position, can run well.
Sapphire Mistress: Going forward today. Has the ability on time of last run to go close off the weight.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie leg two: 1, 6, 12
Cranbourne Race 7
Bartholemew: Hasn’t shown enough this prep to suggest he can win.
Black Bart: Good start to finish win last start. Equal class today and Rawiller can ride him to victory again if produces similar.
Railblazer: Two recent runs this prep then poor last start. Has ability back in class but needs to improve again. Maybe suited by the distance.
Redevelop: Not good enough here today.
Burlington: Down in class today and weighted nicely after claim. May need a further distance than this.
Glenthorn Avenue: Won two of the last three in less classy races. Nolen on board interesting booking.
Going Good: Doesn’t seem progressive enough to win this today.
Prinsen: On last two runs not sure he is suited to up in distance running.
Clarabellejoel: Ignore last start and look to previous runs. In with a chance today.
Gracious Goddess: Big chance here today. Will be suited by extra distance.
Confidence 65%
Quaddie leg three: 2, 5, 6, 11
Cranbourne Race 8
Gigabyte: Not the worst runs the last two preps but needs to find a few more lengths today.
Jazz King: Hard to have today on last start 3.8L 4th. Up in distance is only positive today.
Surface Tension: Back down to a winable class today and weighted nicely after claim, has a big chance.
Constant Momentum: Progressive type who showed enough last prep to suggest can run well first up here today.
It’s Lumsden: Down in class last start just getting the win. Down 0.5kg today and will run very well once again.
Where’s The Bar: Decent runs the last two starts when having a few things go wrong. May position further forward today from barrier 1 and be in with a chance.
Lingo: This is certainly a much easier company of race than last start. May be value today.
No Smoken: Has the ability on last three runs. Big chance.
Tricky Maid: Won 1 and placed 3 at the track so seems suited by it here but only ever won a maiden and first up effort didn’t convince.
Catacomb: Not a winner.
Vandalised: Barrier 2 suits today. Has ability but a claim would have been preferred. Jockey not declared. Big chance if claim on.
Confidence 65%
Quaddie leg four: 3, 4, 6, 8, 9, 14
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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