Welcome to The Profits form for Flemington and Rosehill. Moonee Valley went quite well with Roccin Jo at $12s setting up the night with the $22 pick in the next race just not getting up. Flemington will have appreciated the rain and will play true for both front and back markers it seems. Really like the card we have been dished up with at Flemington today and as long as you pick your bets well, you will struggle to not win in my opinion. Race 2 to 6 look to be the key races to take advantage of. As always, we hope our form matches up with yours. Good luck and happy punting!
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Best Bet
Race 5 Tuscan Fire
Next Best
Race 2 Keep Cool
Best Value
Race 6 British General
Where to bet this weekend?
We don’t try and hide the fact that we love the product offered by Betfair. If you bet their product day in, day out for the year, you are ahead of any other product on offer. But, the smart punter is better off overall by shopping around for the best prices and for the best deals. We have outlined a number of market leading promotions on offer for the weekend.
Betfair
Back three winners at Flemington through their Tote Extra product and receive $100 bonus into your account (Minimum stakes of $25).
Flemington Quaddie First Leg Refund up to $100! If your first leg lets your down, but your win the final three legs, cash back!
Lose by less than half a length cashback. If your horse goes down by less than half a length, your Tote Extra beth will be refunded up to $50 maximum! Not bad for backing favourites to get that $100 in the previous promotion!
Find out more here: http://betfair.com.au/promotions/
Sportingbet
20% Quaddie bonus on your first Flemington & Rosehill Quaddies
Centrebet
Run second to a favourite refund! Using the Centrebest product, If your pick runs second to a favourite in any Australian Guineas Day at Flemington, your first bet on that race will be refunded up to $100.
More info here: http://centrebet.com/Promos/Racing/AusGuineasCup
Sportsbet
Run second to Pierro in the Hobartville Stakes at Rosehill and get up to $100 back.
More info here: http://www.sportsbet.com.au/content/offers/racing-money-back-offers
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters Paradise – http://www.puntersparadise.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means a speculation pick.
Flemington Race 1
Excitable Boy: Showed enough first prep but hasn’t trained on. Hard to have.
Le Mans: Market your only guide. Price/Newitt do have a good record on these types of runners.
Sanosuke: Related to a city winner and Hayes yard flying. Should run well.
This Is War: First son for Emphatic Miss. Breed well and won a Terang barrier trial very well by 8L. Hard to go past from a 800m 8L win. Looks overs.
Mount Zero: Finally got a win last start. Runs well at track and will be running well again today. Weighted to win.
Indulgence: We have seen many a ‘speced’ horse come up $2 favs this year in a first ever run like this and fail. Find it very hard to back something like this. Related to some decent horses but no stars.
Marianne: Full sister to a very talented mare called Our Miss Jones. Would love to see backing to back her.
Confidence 50%
Strategy: May have a small go on This Is War and Mount Zero.. but most likely skipping.
Flemington Race 2
Shewan: Ran very well last start at track but couldn’t beat a horse we don’t rate well in bells of troy. Will run well but hard to see the win.
Keep Cool: Should have won by lengths last start, was simply given a poor ride. Forgive run and back with confidence today.
Elusive King: Every chance last start and simply not good enough. Hard to see the form turned around.
Whisper Downs: Ran well enough last start at Caulfield behind Zlatan. Never placed at track but always runs well. Weighted well today and should go close.
Zlatan: Another step up in class and looks to be very poorly weighted today. Hard to see a win.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Noonan off and Williams on. The price is right that is being bet and he should be winning this. 4 units win
Flemington Race 3
Avoid Lightning: Big win last start at Caulfield and down in class today up 3.5kg. Won 5 from 8 at distance. Will go close.
Glows: Very classy runner who went close 4th at only start here. Won 4 placed 4 from 10 at distance and won 2 from 3 first up. McEvoy onboard today. Should run well.
Booklet: Won once from 6 first up. Never won from 6 at track but won 2 from 8 at distance. Has won in class before but gets trapped from barrier 1.
Lady Antebellum: Weighted nicely again today and should be suited by the track. Suspect he will be the trip. Could be big value.
Spartini: Very poor first up. Equal class today but down 4kg. Needs to show a lot more today but on previous form of last prep, could go well.
Loveyamadly: Very unlucky not to win last start getting run down. Will get a very strong run and off 54kg, will be hitting the line hard.
Light Express: Meets Avoid Lightning 4kg better off today. Runs well at this track and will be there at the finish. Looks value.
Formidable: 1 from 1 at track. Hard to back on previous form lines.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Light Express is massive value today for the win and place. Will either go 3 units Loveyamadly and 1 unit Light Express to win or simply back Light Express to place. Will decide on day after the first two races.
Flemington Race 4
There’s Only One: Absolutely HUGE win last start against the trend for the day. Won 3 from 4 second up and 2 from 4 at track including 4 from 5 at distance. Up for a BIG prep.
Koonoomoo: Ran on well two back to lose to Theres Only One on a day when front runners were suited. Meets 2kg better off today but the track won’t play out well for Koonoomoo to win I suspect.
Bonnie Mac: Ran on well enough last start but has to find 2L more today.
Jolie Blonde: Big win two back and then ran on very well in listed company last start at Mornington. Up 2kg today and down in class, could be value.
Sheila’s Star: Ran well enough last start and weighted nicely today, but is a non-winner. Should produce a good run either way.
Thy: Recent form lines and first up today will have to pull out a lot to win. If the money comes, could be the one.
Tavarnelle: Hard to see the progression first up today. Never won first up or at track and 0 from 3 at class. Looking for further.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: I will be shocked to see Sheila’s Star or Bonnie Mac winning here today. There’s Only One should be winning this off that first up run, but Jolie Blonde is a big chance. 3 win 1 win ratio it looks like here.
Flemington Race 5
Tuscan Fire: Absolutely huge win last start at Mornington. Won 3 of last 4 races getting a little unlucky two back at Caulfield. Giving up 4.5kg today but is 4 from 6 at distance and 2 from 4 at track. Looks to be the best of the day.
Dame Claire: Very average run last start. Weighted nicely today but needs much more improvement.
Bells of Troy: Won off a pace that suited last start and up 600m today a big unknown. Hard to have at the price.
Boom ‘N’ Zoom: Can’t have on previous few runs. Seems to be better suited to lesser distances.
Kutchinsky: Good win two back and ran on well enough last start behind Tuscan Fire. Needs to find 2-3L still.
Unchain my Heart: Showed enough to suggest has improvement this prep but this does look a tough task. Has won 3 from 9 at distance is a big upside.
Heaven’s Riches: Suited by leader bias last start and ran on well. Not good enough here.
Xaar Best: Straight to the front last start on a leader bias track and won easy. This is certainly harder but she was impressive first up. Could be the main threat to Tuscan Fire.
Red Shift: Didn’t show enough last two starts to suggest can win today.
High Kingczar: Not up to this on previous runs but could find a place.
The Wild Thing: Huge step up in class and also distance. Not good enough form lines.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Massive win last start and even though he is giving up 4.5kg to all the runners today, he is by far the best runner and can afford to do so. Will get a good run and win. 5 units win.
Flemington Race 6
Folding Gear: Good last prep but never won at distance from 5 starts and never placed at track from 4. Never won first up either.
Launay: Ran well enough last start. Up 1kg today but form reads well. Could be winning today.
Callanish: Ran well enough last start but was fairly disappointing in my opinion. Doesn’t look to have come back AS WELL as his previous runs. Still a good chance today.
Shout Out Loud: Hard to back him here today after failing last two starts, but back to suitable distance, could be value.
Over Quota: Likes the track but hard to see the win off recent runs.
Prizum: Has won first up previously. Been off 4 months and may find this a tad too hard. Never won from 6 at track but placed 4 of those times. Is a talented horse but needs a run.
British General: The value in the race. People are writing him off for his last start fail at Caulfield… he had EVERY excuse that day, the main one being the ride.. you have to take him to the front bossy! 3KG better off today (WOW) and back to a track where he is 3 from 3!!! Thanks for coming.
Eraset: Best suited to runs further into prep but has won once first up. Better suited by longer distances.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie leg one: 2, 3, 5, 8
Strategy: Super confident with British General today. Will be given the correct ride today out the front and LOVES the track. Love the price to win.. but the price to place is juicy also! 3.5 units win British with 0.75 unit saver Launay.
Flemington Race 7 – Notes read as if All Too Hard was still in race. Form has been re-done and updated, just no new notes. Principals are the same.
Albrecht: Ran on well late last start but you can’t back today.
Hvasstan: Didn’t show much last start. Needs to find 4L today.
Philippi: Can’t fault last start and will enjoy the extra 200m. Good place chance.
Sheet Talent: Giving away weight today but that was a huge run last start. Can run well again today.
Grand Emperor: Won a fairly average race last start. Can improve but not group 1 material.
Subiaso: Fair run at Caulfield but out of this class.
Force Command: Big run last start. Will certainly run well again but barrier 15 does hurt. Never ran 1600m also.
Bass Strait: Hard to have today at weights.
Hosting: Showed enough last start to suggest can run well.
Ajeeb: Good win last start in a very strong time. Could be a very good horse.
Ferlax: Not good enough.
High Esteem: Not up to this class.
High Shot: Massive chance if runs up to best. The only one who could really surprise.
You’re So Good: Keeps finding ways to lose. Will run very strongly again today.
Prakticality: Not up to this.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie leg two: 2, 4, 5, 12, 15, 16
Strategy: Many a chance here. Love to see where the money comes. Very open.
Flemington Race 8
Ready to Rip: Won 4 from 5 first up and 3 from 4 at distance. Down in class big time today and off 60kg today. Has won at the track previously. Expect to see a huge run once again but the weight may have his number.
General Truce: Not sure what to make of his run last start at Caulfield but previous to that won very well at course and distance. Up 4kg for that run today but will go close. First up 5 places 1 win from 6.
Canali: Not disgraced last start 0.3L behind Avoid Lightning. Better stats 2nd up but has a terrible record at track.
Perturbo: Ran on well last start at Mornington but this does look a much harder race. Will go close if up to it.
Karuta Queen: Hasn’t shown anything since 2011. If trained on to bring her best form then can compete today. Money will tell you if she is back!
Carry to Fortune: Hard to see the win on last two runs..
Eight Bills: Ignore last start and look to previous runs. Has claims but this does look a little classy. 0 wins from 16 at class and 0 from 4 at track.
Morant: A horse who finds ways to lose. Hard to back. Never won 2nd up from 6 tries.
Isabella Snowflake: She was simply super last prep. Off 54kg today has every chance and will be hitting the line hard.
Spirit Cent: Not in this class.
Confidence 65%
Quaddie leg three: 1, 2, 6, 10
Strategy: Isabella Snowflake is a horse with MASSIVE upsides. Has a huge future and if is as good as we expect, can win this today and may be value. General Truce is stupid odds today. Loves the straight and runs well here. If runs up to last start win here, can win. Place price is massive.
Flemington Race 9
Domesky: Showed nothing first up and can’t expect much more today.
Gail: Very big run last start and down 4kg today up in class, looks suited. Interestingly 0 wins or places from 3 at class.
Langridge Street: Injured during race last start so simply ignore. Look to run at track three back. Meets Gail 1kg worse off today for 3L win. Will be one of the ones to beat.
Practiced: Won 2 from 4 first up. 2 wins 1 place at distance and 2 places from 2 at track. A horse that is rarely disgraced and if trained on as well as we think, is the best in the race.
Auld Burns: Hard to continue backing this horse. Not showing us enough.
Under The Hat: Ran well enough last start but has to find another length or two today.
Captura: Can’t see a win at weights today. Poorly weighted.
Scottish Border: Not winning this.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie leg four: 4, 5, 6
Strategy: Like to see how the ground is playing out but both of the selected horses should run well. Expecting to approach this with 2 units place 1 unit bet on Langridge street with a 0.25 unit saver on Practiced for the win.
Rosehill Race 1
Super open race with a number of very good chances at prices. Single looks to be the most progressive of the lot.
Confidence 60%
Rosehill Race 2
Very ugly race. The top 3 in the market look the ones to beat with none of them sticking out. Pass this race.
Rosehill Race 3
3 main chances in this one. The obvious is Frozen Rope. Meets a few better off at the weights today somehow. Great win last start and should progress again today. Court Connection won very well last start and is set for another big race while finally Pelicano has been slaying easier opponents in Adelaide and looks up for the test off 56kg.
Confidence 80%
Rosehill Race 4
Probably the best race of the day (that is saying something). Quite a few big chances. Catkins looks to be overs after strong wins her last two runs and resuming today. Looks to have huge amounts of ability and the times were sound. Knight Exemplar is a horse we have been waiting to see return. 0.3L 2nd to Rebel Dane, 0.1L to Jolie Bay and 1.5L behind Nechita are all very strong form lines. Down 2kg today and will be running on very well. Golden Sunshine just keeps running well. Charge Account looks to be something special but this is a step up again while finally Lampedusa is said to be Group class and we will see that here today hopefully.
Confidence 70%
Rosehill Race 5
Two main runners for us here. The first is All The Talk. Very strong time first up this prep and should be able to run better today and is a big chance. Kuroshio is the other runner from barrier 1 who will go forward and be very hard to beat. There is talk around Charlie Boy but the price looks wrong for me against a horse like Kuroshio 3 runs into prep.
Confidence 75%
Rosehill Race 6
Pierro is the class runner here but there are a few around with good chances also. Mulaazem will run a game race off last start and could sneak a place from out the front. Rebel Dane was massive last start and should probably position more forward today to give himself more chance. Proisir trialed ok but I would want to ses a bit more, not first up for mine. It’s A Dundeel looked ‘ok’ also in trial but I didn’t like it enough to back here. Tatra is a horse with HUGE upside. I’m interested to see how he returns and if he measures up from out the front.
Confidence 70%
Rosehill Race 7
Many believe that this is the race for Red Tracer today. Secret Admirer would have been my pick. I reckon you have to take Red Tracer on today at the price.
Rosehill Race 8
Keith’s Legacy returns with huge form lines from last start. Of interest today also is Kimberly Kid, always shows heart and finally got a Sunday win. Up in class today but off 54kg can run on late. Many chances.
Confidence 70%
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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