Welcome to The Profits form guide for Caulfield, Gold Coast and Hawkesbury on 3 Mary 2014. The Sydney carnival is over, but that just means the quality racing moves back to Melbourne, country New South Wales and of course sets it’s eyes on South Australia and Queensland. As normal, I’ve found a few I like in different states today and with so much racing on offer, I urge you to pick and choose carefully and to make the most of offers from the bookies. As always, I hope your form matches up with mine! Good luck and happy punting!
Melbourne Best Bet
Caulfield Race 1 Under The Louvre
We got the cash on this classy runner last time we saw him at Moonee Valley and he was beyond impressive. Only run at Caulfield was for a win, won 3 from 5 at distance and has won previously in this class as well. Fresh today, I think we will see he has gone beyond what he showed last start that is enough to win this. I will be savering Consorting who looks the main threat.
Interstate Best Bet
Hawkesbury Race 5 Cosmic Endeavour
The natural leader again today, she will be able to sit out the front and be very hard to ride out… expecting McDonald to be able to ride it a little slower than Berry gave her last start also. Way over the true odds again today.
Melbourne NEXT Best Bet
Caulfield Race 3 River Delta & Jessy Belle
Two horse play here for me. They are both absolutely flying today and both horses have the conditions to suit. I would be very keen on Jessy Belle outright today if I wasn’t concerned at the speed in the race which should suit River Delta. The blinkers on today are vital for River Delta after last start. Both these horses are going places and even though we will end up getting a price just sub $2, I think we should be getting MUCH shorter.
Interstate NEXT Best Bet
Morphetville Race 7 Tango’s Daughter
She went out the front last start at course and distance which was unexpected and isn’t when she is at her best.. yet still won and beat Floria who is better than her opposition today. Great barrier today to get a sit and only run on Heavy was a good win.
Melbourne Best Place Bet
Caulfield Race 2 Mujadale
I was surprised by this gelding the past two runs. He ran very well first up at Bendigo for a close 3rd and then last start probably went a little hard off a tough weight in a slightly harder race than this. He is the only natural leader today and will be allowed to dictate terms. Down 4.5kg to 55.5kg, he comes in very well at the weights and should go very close to winning.
Interstate Best E/W Bet
Morphetville Race 4 Lady Melksham
Showed nothing first two runs this prep but back to Heavy ground where won 2/2, back down in class and back down in weight… if she is to break through, this is the run and we are getting double figures when she has started in the single figures the previous two starts!
Caulfield Quaddie
Quaddie Leg One: 4, 5, 7, 8, 10
Quaddie Leg Two: 2, 3, 4, 7, 10
Quaddie Leg Three: 2, 3, 5, 6, 8
Quaddie Leg Four: 2, 3, 5, 8, 15
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Caulfield Race 1
Fast ‘N’ Rocking: Back in class today and didn’t handle the slow track last start… which is strange when he handled the heavy the previous prep. Is he better going the Melbourne way? Proabably… can I give him another chance? No way!
Under The Louvre: This horse is a gem and is well in coming up to this level of class today. Haven’t seen him for a little over two months but goes well fresh and off his last start run of last prep wins this as long as there is a little bit of speed on. Very keen today.
Consorting: Probably just have to forgive last start on a slow track and rate on his best runs this prep which has gone very close. Most importantly today, down to 55.5kg. Weighted to go close.
Hard Stride: Poorly weighted against Consorting on two back run and that is the form race i’m willing to compare these off. Will get a nice spot in running.
Aragonese: Hasn’t proved on previous runs to be in this class and i’ll take him on in this.
Vero Beach: Disappointed last start on slow and probably just didn’t handle the ground. Two back run was solid but giving up a lot of weight today to Consorting. Maps to get a good sit out the front.
Villopoto: Hard to rate in this grade today, sure, won by 7L at Donald but the times were only fair.
Comments: I’ve been waiting for Under The Louvre to return and i’m very keen to be on today. Consorting has to be savered at the weights.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Back Under The Louvre. Saver Consorting.
Caulfield Race 2
Escado: Just ignore two back run and look to last start. Ridden on the rail and just got blocked for runs and never given a chance. Probably would have finished 2L off OVP with a clear run and that form has to be respected. Up 5.5kg today is the main issue considering Whisper Downs is only up 1kg after claims. Prefer it wetter?
Whisper Downs: Didn’t exactly impress last start but ran home well the previous run. He did get blocked for a run in the final 100m and should have been 3L off the win i’d suggest. Can improvoe and loves the track. Better on Dead.
Mujadale: First two runs this prep have been surprisingly good. The only leader on paper and may just get a very easy time out front. Well weighted.
Stable Star: Well up in class today and down in weights. Still has to find a good 2 lengths to win this.
Supremacy: Poorly weighted here today compared to others. Hard to have.
Success Dostta: Didn’t exactly impress last start and this is much harder and poorly weighted as well. No thanks.
Tooleybuc Kid: Down 4kg today after a strong win over St Jean at course and distance last start thanks to a jockey error on St Jean which set up a staying trip which he loved. Not sure we get anywhere near as much speed in this, but he did show a nice turn of foot. Previous runs were both close including 0.4L 2nd to Our Voodoo Prince. Weighted well and hard to ignore.
Justthewayyouare: Just have to ignore last start and rate on previous runs this prep. Maps well to get a sit behind the leader or outside of and can run well.
Diamond Jim: Very poor last start and previous runs were only fair. Weighted nicely but prefer others at weights.
Tallage: Country class up to city class. Hard to see this guyw inning.
Comments: Two runners here I like. Tooleybuc Kid can’t be ignored… he will be there at the finish and go close today. The one I like at the weights at at the odds is Mujadale. There is no natural leader apart from him today and he should be given enough of a breather out front to put on a nice tempo from the 600m and not be passed.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Mujadale to win. Saver Tooleybuc Kid.
Caulfield Race 3
River Delta: Key for her here is blinkers on first time.. when she came into the straight last start she wanted to drift out for the whole straight, she got the wobbles in the final 100m but still held on. 3kg worse off today against one runner and 0.5kg better off against another. The only natural leader today… the one to beat again on paper.
Jessy Belle: Absolutely huge first up at Caulfield when flashed home in harder company for 2nd. Down in class and down 2kg today.. absolutely weighted to win.
Leia: Hugged the rail and got within 0.5L but just couldn’t beat Griante or River Delta. 3kg better off against River today and 3.5kg better off agains Grainte. hard to ignore at weights from barrier but prefer Jessy Belle from the back today.
Griante: Ran very well all four runs this prep and probably should have won last start if she didn’t lay out in the final 100m. Maps to sit outside of River Delta or behind… hard to ignore on last start.
Honfleurs: Ran better than expected last start at Sandown in easier company than this but it was a decent form race. Weighted ok but has to improve here.
Star Beauty: Meets River Delta 2.5kg better off today from 2.3L defeat at Flemington two back. Then went close in easier company last start but still couldn’t get the win. Have to improve today.. they could try lead from this barrier and inject some speed?
Cardiac: Maiden winner who didn’t measure up last start. Hard to have at these weight scales.
Inishowen: First up only fair time maiden winner. Not this class.
Miss Hissy: Maiden only winner. Doesn’t look this good.
Tycoon Queen: Didn’t show enough first two runs to measure up here today.
Comments: I can’t oppose River Delta with the blinkers on. She should have won comfortably last start if she didn’t play up in the straight and if she didn’t burn speed early. Today she shouldn’t do either. Jessy Belle is the absolute best chance here to upset her. I think Jessy Belle is massive overs on the last start run. Even though we are getting around $1.80 for either to win, I’m very confident on this play.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: River Delta and Jessy Belle to win to win equal stakes.
Caulfield Race 4
Easy Drama: Won very well first up at Flemington in a hot prize race, but Singularity hasn’t proved to be a strong form line. Can mprove again and from barrier 1 maps very well.
Hunters Grace: Improved last start to win well in a much easier company than this. Hard to have around these today but the prive ain’t half bad as a spec.
Pressing: Tough win first up on slow.. Times were solid and he looked a good horse.
Petrology: Just beaten home first up by Pressing. Maps even better today and could beat Pressing home today if improved.
Inkulu: Unlucky both runs this prep. Continues to run well without getting a win. No excuses today. Go close.
Armada: Average first and hard to see the improvement to beat all these home.
Selvatico: Can’t have on first two runs this prep.
Manhattan Avenue: Seemed to have every chance last start. Not for me.
Comments: Inkulu will go close again.
Confience 65%
Strategy: Inkulu to win.
Caulfield Race 5
Goldslick: Never placed at track and last two runs this prep have just been poor compared to previous two. Top weight, hard to see here for me.
Bec Said No Credit: Had every chance last start at Caulfield and got beaten by Twilighting… yuck! Up 2.5kg today.. one of the best in this but hard to trust off last start run.
Bells of Troy: Goes ok first and loves this track. Never won at distance but does go well enough.
Crucial: Continues to run well all prep and last start ran home well but just missed the win on slow at course and similar distance. 57kg today, one of the key chances today.
High Aims: Ran very well winning first up over 1600m. I’m not sure exactly where she is at in terms of this race, but I have her highly rated.
Red Fez: Very poor last start at course and over 1400m. Up to 1600m big unknown today. needs more speed on than I see today.
Miss Outshine: Ignore last start when didn’t run very well on the slow track. Weighted to win today and the form of the last two runs is very solid. Maps well.
Love For Ransom: Hasn’t won since 2012 when showed she was something good. Much better over slightly further. Ran ok first up though.
Aliyana: Forgive run first up. Have to simply forgive and rate on previous prep where showed us something of merit.
Terpsichore: Can’t have her on last three runs.
Serene Tanie: Not in this.
Comments: Tough race on paper. Two stand outs but not sure how confident I am to get involved.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg One: 4, 5, 7, 8, 10
Strategy: Crucial to win. Miss Outshine lesser bet.
Caulfield Race 6
Brambles: Never won first up in the past. Been off since 2012 but was a serious horse back then… showed best over 2000m+ though.
Dany The Fox: A little disappointing last start but finished off ok. Weighted nicely in this race today and maps very well.
Tuscan Fire: Last win was at similar distance first up last prep on a slow ground.. flew home.. didn’t show much else after that up in class. Good horse, but prefer over further. If jumps at $40+, have to have a small bet on him.
Bianmick: Ran ok first up but finished off poorly. Back in class today but can’t have on that run.
Cosmic Causeway: Very average first up. On that run I can’t consider here today.
Reparations: Huge last start at Newcastle and was great before that as well at Canberra. Weighted well. Very well.
Loot ‘N’ Run: Runs well at the track and distance. Likes it wet or dry. Weighted ok today as well.. won’t be setting a huge clip out the front.
Coronation Shallan: Average last start at MV. Two back ran 3.8L 3rd to Sistine Demon. Probably unders today.
Horacio: Progressed well through the grades this prep and ran very well last start in a good time. Can improve again today.
Hannaford: Ran very well first up after being slow away and almost got the win… this is much harder though… much.
Comments: Not the easiest race to judge. Reparations wins on the last two runs, but there doesn’t seem that level of speed in this race today to me. Reparations from the barrier can’t position further forward either. Dany The Fox will get the race run to suit. He doesn’t win often and often runs as unders, but today he is hard to beat on the pace that will be set today.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg Two: 2, 3, 4, 7, 10
Strategy: Dany The Fox to win. Saver Reparations
Caulfield Race 7
Boys On Tour: Ran ok all three runs this prep but at weights has to find 2 lengths today. Best shown on Heavy.
Freshwater Storm: I like this horse. In the past, he has shown me some huge talent, but he doesn’t always put it together every day at the races. His run last start 5th by 2L behind Fat Al in much harder grade than this on slow was solid. Won 2 from 3 at this track and loves this distance. McNeil back onboard is very important in my opion, i’ve seen him get the best out of this horse previously.
Campanology: Ran home well from a long way back last start at Sandown but needs to improve on that run today. Up to his best distance from over in ireland today and you have to consider him a serious chance.
African Heat: Never won at distance but has placed at similar dances 4 of 6 goes. Never won first up but placed 2 from 3 first up as well. Not been seen since 2012 the concern.
Mighty Like: Won 3 in a row and stepping up again today. Last start win was huge but let’s be clear that this is a much harder race today.
Elusive King: Never won firs tup and shown best later into preps. this looks beyond him.
Pin Your Hopes: Down in class today and up 2.5kg after going too far up in class last start. Weighted ok today.
Zuma Roc: Didn’t show too much first up IMO and looking for further distances… has class but i’d be shocked.
Digitalism: Ran home well enough last start and showed improvement. At weights up in class here has to find 2 lengths.
Fabriano: Love this horse even though he never wins. Shown his best at further and happy to avoid today.
Onpicalo: Showed absolutely nothing first up. Hard to have today on that run.
Harveys True Heart: Well backed in late but fell out of it very quickly last start. Go better today. .
Comments: I can’t spot too much real quality in this race apart from old fav Freshwater Storm. The right price today and maps very well.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie Leg Three: 2, 3, 5, 6, 8
Strategy: Freshwater Storm E/W
Caulfield Race 8
Happy As Hell: Won well last start at Caulfield as a bit of a surprise. Up to 2000m should suit today.
Carillo: Ran well last start and three runs back. This is much harder and at weights, probably doesn’t win, but will be there at the end.
Le Mans: Ran home very well last start at course and similar distance. Weighted well but poor barrier.
Synthetic: Went around as $2.10 favourite last start but didn’t place. Was blocked for a run near the turn which didn’t help, but I don’t think he was good enough. The wetter the better for him.
Jade’s Boy: Probably a forgive run last start at Sandown when hampered… but was fairly poor if you ask me, and i was on him. Hard to back here.
Bring Back: Shock winner last start. It came from no where. I can’t see him repeating that here.
Khutulun: HUGE win last start at Sandown… did start to get tired by the end after going out front which was a huge change of tactics… from barrier 5 today has every opportunity to go out the front again today and weighted well… but surely they take a sit near the front. Huge chance again on times.
Pinstriple Lane: Showed nothing the last two runs. Hard to consider a chance at all.
Razzle Dazzle Rock: Ran home very well jumping up into this grade after winning a maiden very well. Barrier hurts today to get a good position and i think that ruins his chances.
Gambaccini: Didn’t expect much from him last start and ran home well. I’m happy to take on here.
Lady Tatia: Ran ok last start but hard to see making up the ground required to win this on times.
Square Off: Maiden only winner. Massive step up, no thanks.
Kazemi: Didn’t get the run required last start but still ran home ok. Worth watching.
Derrymore: Weighted to run well today, worth including in Quaddie.
Word of Mouth: Finally got a maiden win.. but not good enough for this.
Megamind: Can’t see winning this on last few runs.
Stellarized: Ran ok last start but this is much harder. No thanks.
Comments: Very very tough race. Not sure I could bet here with TOO much confidence but from what I saw last start from Khutulun could have a small E/W play.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg Four: 2, 3, 5, 8, 15
Strategy: Khutulun E/W
Gold Coast Race 7
Precedence: Never won on a slow track and never won first up or at this distance. Better over slightly further.
Moriarty: Continues to run well but can he show the required improvement today which looks to be a length or two.
Military Move: Not sure what to make of this bloke. He did beat Who Shot The Barman in December but since then fell away a little bit. Ran 2nd in a ‘ok’ race but times weren’t that impressive.
Fat Al: Both his last two runs are just forgive jobs. Galloped on two back and then last start made to lead on a heavy track. Should run well.
Mr O’Ceirin: Just write off that first up run. Won 3 placed 2 from 6 2nd up runs. Won a Group 3 last prep as well from out the front and maps to be the only natural leader in the race. Runs well on wet tracks and goes well at this distance. Has a big turn of foot off a slow tempo and could get it today.
Junoob: Clearly the horse to beat. Better on dead if you ask me, but he won on heavy last start and can improve again today.
Grey Assignment: Disappointed all 3 runs this prep. Hard to have. Doesn’t look the same horse!
Flying Home: Need to catch the early plane to fly past these.
Elmantosh: Not in this class.
Streama: Ignore two back run and rate on last start and three back. Can we discount her a little for not beating Diamond Drille home? Certainly. Is her best on dryer ground? I think so. Still, she will run a very good race today. .
Angel of Mercy: Good easy win last start and previous run was nice behind Catkins. Much harder today at weights.
Comments: Call me biased, you can, but bias has served me well this past 3 years. I think Mr O’Ceirin is a genuine chance to knock these runners off today. Junoob is the one to clearly beat on runs up in Sydney.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: E/W bet on Mr O’Ceirin.
Hawkesbury Race 3
Liberty’s Choice is a horse I have been following the last two preps and while he has only won just a maiden, he has gone very close in quite a few good races in the past. His last start run behind Gypsy Diamond was very game and based on the runs this prep, he is well in here today. I have him rated slightly lower than the price we are getting today.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Liberty’s Choice to win
Hawkesbury Race 5
Three key chances in this race for mine.
Cosmic Endeavour delivered in spades and $$$ last start for us with a 2L win at Randwick. The natural leader again, she will be able to sit out the front and be very hard to ride out… expecting McDonald to be able to ride it a little slower than Berry gave her last start also.
Cameo ran home well enough behind Mecir in much harder class last start. Really want to see her on Good to see her best, but rates well in this grade.
Plucky Belle is just forgiven for last start when too far back. Barrier 3 today, you know they won’t get stuck out the back today. Weighted ok as well. Up to 1300m helps.
Comments: Very keen to have money on Comic and Plucky.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Cosmic Endeavour to win. Lesser bet on Plucky Belle.
Hawkesbury Race 6
Keep this nice and simple. Leebaz should be winning hear based on the three runs this prep. Absolutely flying and Hawkes place this guy so well. Down in weight in lesser class here today also.
Full of Spirit is a blowout smokey worth putting in your Quaddie. Just ignore last start. Rates to go close for mine.
Mouro forgive last start and rate on first up run. Can run well.
Comments: Leebaz wins with a good ride. Full of Spirit a chance.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Leebaz to win.
Hawkesbury Race 7
Twilight Royale is big overs in this race today. Just ignore last start when too far back and didn’t handle the ground. Up to 1400m which suits and from barrier 1 will be ridden for luck. Big chance at big odds.
Estonian Princess was a big win last start at Randwick. Can improve onwards today.
Chautauqua Hawks runner worth watching. A bit disappointing last start IMO.
Ryker ran home well enough behind Gypsy Diamond last start but hard to have here.
Spy Decoder finished off well after slowly away last start but big questionmarks in this class.
Northern Glory unlucky last start not to get the win. Weighted to go close today and maps well.
Katie’s Cove on times and form looks to be a good type. Huge chance today if brings best.
Kayjay’s Joy rates well on two back run at times. Firs tup just too far back over 1200m off a slow tempo. Improve today.
Confidence 65%
Strategy: Tough race. Will be playing 2-3 horses at value if anything.
Hawkesbury Race 8
Limes: Goes ok first up… top weight again today but used to this. Never runs a bad race but first up record a lot to desire. Never won on anything but Good.
Tougher Than Ever showed huge potential in WFA over here but failed to make a mark over in Singapore. Back in Waller stable and based on WFA form over 1200m is WAY over the odds today. Looks value.
Ichihara: Ran three very solid races last prep and has to be respected. Maps well from barrier.
Pocket Rockets: Ran home ok last start at Flemington but not well enough to suggest to me he wins this today.
Masthead: Back from SIngapore after not making much of a dent. Others preferred.
Hurrara: Ran well enough last start.. all runs this prep ran well. Others preferred for me though.
Tahitian Black: Just ignore last run of last start and rate this guy off previous runs.. including 1L 3rd to Knoydart. Runs on very well and is weighted super well today.
Agent: Won with ease last start… weighted nicely and hard to beat today.
Inside Job: Times hard to ignore of this guy. He runs fast times and is weighted well today. If improved from last prep can go close.
Rolston: Doesn’t look in this class.
Comments: Happy to avoid a few runners today who are favs and back three outsider chances I believe rate equally as the favs today.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Back Tougher Than Ever, Tahitian Black and Inside Job to win.
Morphetville Race 4
Lady Melksham has shown absolutely nothing this prep. Even on slow last start she was poor. Way back in class here today and down in weight onto a Heavy track which she is 2/2 on. At the odds, she looks a great E/W bet which works out way more often than not.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Lady Melksham E/W
Morphetville Race 6
When it comes to racing on a Heavy track, you have to go with those you know will handle the surface. I can’t have Classy Jack today due to how he ran last start. Miracles of Life is a huge unknown today having never raced on slow or heavy and having only ever won on Good. Jazz Song is a horse I’d be very welling to back today on good ot even dead, but failed only try on slow is a massive concern. Eclair Big Bang is very well weighted today, but I thought his effort last start was disappointing. Has a won on slow. The Quarterback is the stand out on last few runs this prep. Most importantly, he loved the wet and is down in weight today. Finally, Lucky Symbol is the overs in the race. Charged home last start blocked for runs… query is on ground.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Back The Quarterback. Smaller bet Lucky Symbol.
Morphetville Race 7
Keeping this one nice and simple. Tango’s Daughter wins today. She went out the front last start at course and distance which was unexpected and isn’t when she is at her best. From barrier 6 today, she will get a very easy coverup close to the speed and be very hard to beat. Only run on Heavy was a good win as well. Weighted to win.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Tango’s Daughter to win.
Morphetville Race 8
Wide open race. With the track today I think you do have to go for a runner who will handle the track. The runner I want to be with today needs a bit of luck from the barrier, but should have every chance. Gamblin’ Guru has won very well the last two runs at Morphetville and looks to be wanting the extra distance from what I’ve seen. Weighted nicely and is 1/1 on heavy tracks where he beat Tupac Amaru over 2200m, not bad form lines hey? Great price.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Gamblin’ Guru E/W
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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