Welcome to The Profits form guide for Friday Night Racing at Moonee Valley on 21 February 2014. The first four races tonight are ‘quick and dirty’ looking at the main runners while the Quaddie leg is full form. Please note that full form has been done on all races, but I just didn’t have the time tonight to express all my thoughts on the first four races due to internet issues with Telstra! We snagged Miss Promiscuity as our Best Bet the last time we saw her at Flemington around the $4 mark for a 4L win. It was great and I expect her to continue that form today while the next best is a bit of a risk first up, but is by far the best horse in the race and looks well in. The best value has featured in his previous three runs. We got him at $10+ when he won 3 back and has had excuses 2 back and then last start was in a much harder race. The price has been put up at a level that is overs. As always, I hope your form matches up with mine! Good luck and happy punting!
Best Bet
Moonee Valley Race 6 Miss Promiscuity
Next Best
Moonee Valley Race 5 Let’s Rock’N’Roll
(Have something small on Beauty Cash in the race as well)
Next Next Best
Moonee Valley Race 4 Settlers Way
Moonee Valley Quaddie
Quaddie Leg One: 5, 7, 12
Quaddie Leg Two: 2, 4, 5
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 5, 6
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 3, 4, 6
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters Paradise – http://www.puntersparadise.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Moonee Valley Race 1
Two stand outs in this race at the top of the market. London Stripe ran very well after 2 months off last start at Pakenham on a day when you wanted to be on speed. Up 2kg today. Wairoa is the one who stands out for me though. Ran on very well from a position close to the back. The front runners finished 1/2/3 in the race. Back to 1600m looks a good thing and perfect barrier.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: I’d need $3 to back Wairoa here.
Moonee Valley Race 2
Seems to be a bit of speed in this race. Only four horses rate as chances for me.
Crucial maps well from Barrier 1. Can lead but most likely takes a sit. Rare push up to 2040m today. Speed looks like it might be on. Weighted 2kg better vs Text’N’Hurly today. Need to be peaking but suspect that she was peaking at Mornington three runs back.
You’re Discreet returned to best last start at course and similar distance and weight from the back. Will position further forward and looks the value.
Text’N Hurley continues to run well this prep up in distance suiting. Never run this distance previously is the big issue for me giving 2kg to Crucial also. Didn’t have the heart to get that bob in last start. Does look suited up in distance but that is a big question mark. Maps to be close to the back with First Bloom.
First Bloom Last start at course and distance was a huge impressive winner by 3.3 lengths. Equal weight today and not that much harder race. Only 8 others to pass today should make it easier as well. Rail out 6M from True doesn’t seem that much of a bad bias TBH either.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: First Bloom to win. Very small bet on You’re Discreet.
Moonee Valley Race 3
6 of the 9 runners here under $10s for a reason, it’s a wide open race. I actually think all 9 runners here have the potentail to win. It’s simply one of those races. Just for the record, if there are more than 4 KEY chances in a race, I don’t play in it. There are more than 4 here so I can already tell you i’m not having a shot unless I get double the correct odds on a certain runner.
So who wins? You Can Dance won’t get as easy a time today as last start when the horse who ran 2nd was last of the field compared to her running out the front. Much more speed today and while I think the horse is a top chance, is the run she gets going to be as easy? I doubt it. Also, will the track be Dead? The horse is 0 wins 1 place on Good tracks. Coronation Shallan showed huge improvement throughout runs last prep. Can run well and this is a significantly easier race today – if looks well in yard then can go well. Miss Middleton never jumps well and you just can’t back her. Tykook won’t get the lead as wanted today.. off two back run can run well. Metaphor could be something really good based on runs this prep. Weighted nicely and last start was a better run.
Comments: Can’t play here.
Confidence 60%
Strategy: STAY OUT
Moonee Valley Race 4
Devonshire Duke continues to run well this prep. Back in class heavily today off 56.5kg (up 3.5kg) and giving Settlers Way 1.5kg today. Barrier 2 but won’t get a lead today which looks an issue to me. Best runs have been on dead ground also.
Justthewayyouare won well at Mornington last start but how good was the run? Massive leader bias at the track early. At the price looks way unders and looks a lay to me.
Signoff looks a talent. Ignore two back run and rate on last start at Morphetville. Wide barrier means will need luck to get a good forward possy, but should run well.
Settlers Way overraced last start at Caulfield but didn’t fail, was only 2.5M off the talented winner. Duplicity Jones who won well on Wednesday backs up the three back win and he maps much better today. Schofield on board. One last chance?
Tristram’s Sun has been hugely progressive. But last start had every chance at Caulfield off a VERY slow tempo and still got beaten. I couldn’t have here at the weights.
Comments: One more chance for Settler’s Way.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Settler’s Way on the Each Way.
Moonee Valley Race 5
Zedi Knight: Way back in class after some ‘decent’ runs this prep. Not sure his best is ever seen at 955m. Back to open class today. Barrier hurts.
Excelorada: Will be closer to the back today. Is he the best here? No. Can he win? I wouldn’t say no.
Go The Knuckle: Went close for us twice last prep including in a Group 3. We saw his best over the 1200m IMO and on a longer straight. Don’t count him out and I reckon Newitt rides him for luck… but probably under correct odds as it stands. Didn’t show alot in the trials.
Planet Voyage: Hasn’t shown a thing after leaving Melbourne to run in NSW and Gold Coast. Been off more than a month so could have turned that form around.. but best runs he has shown has been down the straight at Flemington and thats where I want to be backing him, not here.
Snitzem: Continues to go around and continues to be found out. Hasn’t won since late 2012 over the 950m in Open Class. Been off 4 months.. at his best probably goes close.. but can we count on his best?
Ventic: Goes well first up. The runs last prep suggest his best on a wet ground, but also goes fine on a good or dead. Is he the best horse in this race? No.
Let’s Rock’N’Roll: Ignore his last run of last prep and his form looks super. The first run at Warwick Farm off a hot tempo is quality. Harder class here today but from barrier 2 will roll to the front and be very hard to pass.
Fab Fevola: Shouldn’t have finished as far back last start at Flemington if everything was going well. On three back run can go close but hasn’t peaked that much since.
Black Jack Boy: Ran well enough last start. Will be coming from a long way back. Can win but needs a better run today.
Beauty Cash: Comes into this weighted very very well. Off 53kg today even after a strong win last start at MV. Barrier 1 maps ot need to get a run but weighted to win this and goes well at distnace as well.
Comments: Competitive race. Let’s Rock’N’Roll looks very very hard to beat but Beauty Cash can continue on with it I feel today also.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie Leg One: 5, 7, 12
Strategy: Medium size bet on Let’s Rock’N’Roll to win. Small size bet on Beauty Cash to win.
Moonee Valley Race 6
Miss Rose De Lago: First up since November. Was winning in this class over in Ascot over the 1400m and 1600m. Has put in decent runs over the 1200m as well but best was over further. Can win today and maps to lead, but probably giving 1-2kg more than they should? Trialed well enough.
Montsegur: Talented. Didn’t get a win last prep but all runs were very solid. Interesting the jockey pick today.. not a big rider like a Williams who has won on her before. Wasn’t tested in trial.
The Huntress: Showed nothing first up. I couldn’t touch off that run.
Miss Steele: Proved she has talent last prep with a strong win at course and distance in easier company and ran 1 L 6th to Minaj first up which is strong enough form to win this in a 3F-LR race. Needs to probably have trained on for an extra length and be peaking though.
Miss Promiscuity: How good was she last start and the one before hand? Her times are just great and her turn of foot just blows fields away. 55kg from barrier 1 she looks suited even up in class again. Maps to try and lead from the inside barrier or take a sit. the one to beat clearly.
The Special Two: Showed enough last prep to be competitive today but wants further IMO. Does go best at this distance off a hot tempo but that shouldn’t be given up today.
Zedi Gold: Two back win at Sale was ‘good’ but in MUCH easier company. Hard to have IMO.
Jazz Song: Maiden only winner and no trial form? Only been off a few months. Can’t have improved this much.
Alysiana: Couldn’t win a maiden…
Comments: I can’t back away from Miss Promiscuity again today at the price. She is the best horse form wise in this race. There are quite a few first up which is why we are getting the price, how well have they trained on? I still think at their peak runs last prep the ‘first up’ runners have to improve to beat Miss Promiscuity off either of her last two runs at the weights.
Confidence 90%
Quaddie Leg Two: 2, 4, 5
Strategy: Miss Promiscuity to win.
Moonee Valley Race 7
Travolta: Absolutely FLEW late last start at Mornington. I got him wrong last start. He carried the 60kg and even though he gave the field 6kg was sensational to the line. Ridden differently probably cost him the race? Not sure. Oliver takes the ride today and from the barrier with this field you can expect him to push forward with Use The Lot. Expect the rail being out to be an advantage in these longer races. Big chance.
Motivado: Showed us nothing firs tup and can’t see that turning around anytime soon.
Shenzhou Steeds: Last three runs hasn’t shown us enough to suggest a place today.
Streets of Seattle: Ran on well enough lat start but needs to find lengths today. Weighted well vs Red Thriller.
Use The Lot: Continues to prove how good he is over these distance. Back up to the 2500m where I feel he has shown his best runs. Loves this track and is weighted nicely. A big chance.
Big Memory: Mapping suggests he will either try and lead or take a sit. I’m not too worried either way. Last start behind Travolta just got grounded down over the 2400m. Up to 2500m but 1kg better off, but hasn’t had a run inbetween like Travolta. One may suggest the Cup run was Travolta’s peak and he has to be on the downward while Big Memory is being set for this? Only won once this prep and other runs were 2nd 2nd and 2nd (first Bloom isn’t a bad 2nd). I’d be concerned with a Good track for this horse though.
Aggregator: Just snuck the win last start at Caulfield. This is a much harder race and I doubt he can take his run to the next level to beat all this class. Can place though.
Pauling: Step up to 3000m last prep got him the win over Master’s Degree. Exposed today back to 2500m if I’m to be honest with you and I think is poorly weighted in this class.
Red Thriller: Continues to run well this prep but how good i You’re Discreet form 2nd to her? Poorly weighted today all things considered and unproven over the distance. Maps well though.
Beliveau: Last two runs have been solid enough but giving Use The Lot 3kg today after 2L defeat. No thanks.
Ali Vital : Can’t see him winning after last few runs at distance – the form lines – Aggregator weighted well against him today
Comments: I really do think the market has this one right with the 3 at the top the best 3 chances who should win this race 80% of the time.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 5, 6
Strategy: Travolta’s run in the Mornington Cup is hard to ignore. Will I be betting here? Probably not unless a trend bias appears.
Moonee Valley Race 8
Horacio: Beat home favourite today Reddamour by 0.4L last start at course and distance and meets him 0.5kg worse off as a result. This isn’t anything in the scheme of things but the barrier is the issue. Will need to be pushed hard to get the required position from this barrier.
De Mars: Hasn’t shown enough in the past four runs to suggest he has a chance today.
Reddamour: Maps to need a lot of luck from barrier 1 today. A lot of pace on and will be needing to find outs from the 400m onwards. Can win but luck required.
Cult of Isis: Continues to improve this prep and won well as a drifter last start at Mornington. The time ran suggests he didn’t have many favours but was the best on the day. Expect them to run from the back today with so much pace in the race and be hitting that line very hard. Big chance.
Holy Heart: Last three runs have been solid without looking the winner. Up in class today and weighted only fairly, will map well enough from B4 though. I can’t have.
Ticket to Toorak: 2nd to Mandla three back looks good form lines now hey? Ignore next start and rate on last start as well at Geelong where just got the win. About equal class today and will find it hard to lead from barrier without blowing his load early. Can win.
Tayla Lee: Found out in city class over in Adelaide last start and this is a harder race. Need a lot of luck to win and improvement.
Snip the Dancer: Never measured up in this type of city class race and couldn’t win country race as $2.30 fav first up with every chance off a nice enough tempo. No thanks at weight.
Mr Cooley: Not showed us enough this prep to suggest city class.
Mighty Zambezi: Last start run was better than 1.8L 2nd suggests. Overraced the whole race and laid out on turn. Much harder race though so hard to see a win from this barrier.
Famous Finnish: Can’t win on form this prep.
Comments: Tough way to finish the night. Several key chances and a few needing lucky runs.
Confidence 65%
Quaddie Leg Four: 1, 3, 4, 6
Strategy: Cult of Isis on the E/W with a saver on Ticket to Toorak.
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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