Welcome to The Profits form for Moonee Valley on Friday 21 March 2014. Wednesday was tough but we at least got our Next Best home. Big Buddie gave us a sight for 2nd at $50/$10 which was a good result also, but the best certainly didn’t get the run we wanted, blocked and blocked and blocked but the last 50m was eye-catching and is a follow forward. Some very good races tonight at MV and some high confidence plays. As always, I hope your form matches up with mine! Good luck and happy punting!
Best Bet
Moonee Valley Race 5 Platelet
Next Best
Moonee Valley Race 7 Samaready
Best Value
Moonee Valley Race 4 Suavito
Moonee Valley Quaddie
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 3
Quaddie Leg Two: 2, 4, 7, 8, 13
Quaddie Leg Three: 2, 3, 7, 10
Quaddie Leg Four: 3, 11, 12, 13
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters Paradise – http://www.puntersparadise.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.bestodds.com.au
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
Moonee Valley Race 1
Auld Burns: Winable class today at the weights. Will be out the front from barrier 2 and shouldn’t be taken on for the rails position. Should get a good run.
Duplicity Jones: The key chance for mine in the race. Huge win two back and then last start was beaten by a VERY classy runner who has backed up that win as well. Barrier 1 hurts, will need to get off that rail, but that is the only query for mine. Will love the sting out today!
The Shank: Much harder race today but last two runs have shown merit. Not for me.
Mightiest: Good enouhg horse on what we have seen in the past but he just isn’t going well enough this prep to suggest the win here.
Arctic Grey: Won 4 of last 5 and was blocked heavily two runs back when probably should have won also. Weighted much better today as well and looks a blow out chance.
Dew: Seemed to have every chance last start at course and distance in much easier class. Ran a solid 2nd but that isn’t good enough a run for this.
Quantum Light: Missed the start and that cost him the race last start. Down 4kg and should run very well here. Could place.
Wilshire Flyer: Average run last start and up 3kg today. I can’t see this happening.
Space Diva: Good win last start at Donald but poorly weighted here today up in class. Can still swoop well and one to watch.
Dominant Manner: Average form and hard to see him placing here even off 52kg.
Diello Rose: Two runs at similar distances this prep have been horrible. Thankfully she will be out the back out of the way.
Comments: Tough way to open the night. Not sure I can bet here even if I think Duplicity Jones is 2L better than any horse in this race. Barrier 1 is a massive issue for a shorty at MV and the horse is 0 wins from 3 tries at track. Oliver should and most likely gets the run and win sthis, but even though I have the horse on top, I can’t put money on it! The Shank looks the best outside chance at odds.
Confidence 60%
Strategy: Duplicity Jones or The Shank E/W.
Moonee Valley Race 2
Bec Said No Credit: Runs well first up. Goes ok over this distance but based on last prep runs is better over the 1400m+ distances. Does have a Mares win from last prep and after claims is well enough in at the weights.
Espirit Rossa: First up and loves this track. Better over further is the issue today. Weighted nicely. If the track is dead, then she is a very good chance even at the distance from barrier 2.
Secret Toy Bizness: Showed ‘enough’ last prep to suggest she has improvement to come. Never won first up but only run at track was a win over 1500m. 2 wins 0 places at distance.
You Can Dance: Had a few excuses last start with a poor post recovery, but was convincingly beaten. 0.5kg worse off at weights today compared to Metaphor as well. Back to a dead track is the key thought today and I wouldn’t discount her from such a positive barrier.
Rose Pattern: This girl is in for another prep! Off 54kg today here today with claims from Kisbet makes her appealing. Maps well from barrier 6 and has a very solid first up record.
Bloomingdale Miss: First up run suggested she is in for a very good prep. Up 1.5kg today is the only issue for mine and will need luck to get out from the barrier!
Lady Searcy: Showed nothing first up. Not sure I could back after that first up run today but at best can place I’d say.
Metaphor: Last two runs of her have been huge. Last start win was just so impressive and a month between runs is perfect. Well in at the weights. Can push forward and will be very hard to pass.
Melrose Place: Just ignore first up run. Suggest you base her form on three back run at Flemington. On that form she can run well today but alot of things against her.
Red Fez: Ran very well first up at Flemington for 3rd in F&M grade behind Angel Beach. A little surprised today they don’t claim on her.. she would be so well in at the weights. From the barrier, maps very well to get a very good run.
Valid Contract: Very solid win two back at Sandown beating Grand Zee. That form has worked out very well. Last start was poor and can’t explain it. Much harder today.
Tykook: Can run a nice race but just can’t win this even at weights.
Comments: Three key chances for mine here. Metaphor was impressive last start and is hard to oppose today. Red Fez was good last start also but I think if they were claiming, would be my top pick, but at the weights, I’m not sure I can touch. You Can Dance is the key chance for me to beat Metaphor back on a dead track. Will be given a better ride today IMO.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Metaphor to win. Lesser bet on You Can Dance.
Moonee Valley Race 3
Iconic: Very classy runner who hasn’t had much luck this prep. A very good swooper, Iconics 2nd up run in Group 2 company to Lankan Rupee, even though it was 3.8L off, proved he is a good horse. Back to this grade today and off 59.5kg, well suited, just if he can get a run is the question!
Churchill Dancer: Surprised us last start in similar grade with a strong run 4th to Worth a Ransom. Previous runs were very solid as well to be fair behind some classy enough runners. Maps to sit close enough today but needs a bit of luck in running for mine to find that extra length he required to win this.
Thermal Current: Improved run last start behind Anatina and the 4L defeat first up to Not Listenintome starts to look better with how that colt ran on the weekend. 1 from 1 at this track. Win wouldn’t shock but has to improve and never won on dead!
Hard Stride: Missed the start at Flemington but still hit the line very very well. I noted the run with the intention to follow going forward. Up to 1200m, back in class and in a race where if he doesn’t miss the start, he will be getting an easy enough time out the front. Will enjoy the sting out of the ground as well. Giving up 2kg to Thermal Current today is the only issue.
I Am Titanium: Very promising first up run and will improve for that run today. Giving Thermal Current 2kg today as well though is an issue and will be a long way back.
Jade’s Boy: Will he get it wet enough today? He is crying out for a we track but even without it he has been running some cracking races. Probably better over further distances is the issue for me. If it’s a slow track, I will be looking towards him. If not, Happy to oppose.
Turquoise King: Impeded by a fallen horse last start (good enough excuse?) and jumped awkwardly, but still ran well. Much harder race today is a massive issue but maps to be the leader here and will have no excuses.
Tansy: Impressive maiden winner who then measured up in city over the 1000m. Only just missed the win last start when slowly away at course over 950m. Impressive type and barrier 1… but much harder class. Times are good enough to run well here.
Washington Square: Good run first up and looks to be going well this prep. Did beat Lion of Belfort last prep and has measured up in similar class.
Comments: Tough race. Many form lines to consider. The more I look at the runs of Thermal Current the more I have to suggest they weren’t bad. I also look back at Iconics previous runs and think he is the class here. Tough race.
Confidence 65%
Strategy: Iconic to win.
Moonee Valley Race 4
Solicit: First up run this prep was impressive in what was much easier than this today. Last start she beat a good group of fillies and is stepping up in distance today which should suit. Poorly weighted today though giving a lot of runners the chance to get past her here. The class runner in the race, but based on last run, I’m very happy to oppose at the price.
Miss Rose De Lago: Very solid run first up and then ran well last start as well at Flemington when led. Is she better with a sit? I’d say so. Is she going to? No. Will be out the front setting a hot tempo.
Suavito: Love this horse. I believe this horse has a Group 1 in her going forward from everything I’ve seen. Unlucky not to win over the Spring and then last start ran very well on her first attempt on a Good track. She was super and wasn’t fully wound up i’m told. The stable has some big plans for her if she wins today and being 1.5kg better off today against Solicit, I think she can run past her. The massive issue of course is barrier 10. There are quite a few runners who don’t push forward is the big advantage and i’m going to put my trust in Oliver to get in from the outside barrier.
Marianne: Done absolutely nothing wrong this prep but is certainly a bit of a cat having won 2nd on 3 occasions. Meets Solicit 3kg better off at the weights which on my scales gets her the win over Solicit. Barrier 7 but no issue on my speed maps. Big chance.
Sensibility: First tow runs this prep shown us nothing and nothing suggests that will change today!
Girl In Flight: Huge second up run when ran wide during the race and showed us significantly more than we were expecting off the first run this prep. Step up to 1600m will suit and the stable train their runners well to tackle a course like MV. Will be given every chance and is well weighted today.
Saralago: Very average run last start in similar class. Hard to see her measuring up here.
Mambo Lady: Maiden only winner who has continues to run solid races this prep but just can’t crack though. Can’t see it coming today either at the weights.
Lady Tatia: First up run was average at best. Maiden only winner. No thanks.
Cardiac: Firs tup run was average and then maiden win last start in very poor time. May just get in the way of a few of these.
Comments: Solicit is the lay of the day. You have to take her on here knowing that the stable is SKIPPING Sydney from what we are told. This tells me they don’t have confidence after that last start run in her measuring up to higher class while there are a few heading onwards from here including up to Sydney.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Win bets on Suavito, Marianne and Girl In Flight. Alternatively, just lay Solicit.
Moonee Valley Race 5
Platelet: Always runs well first up but interestingly hasn’t ever won first up previously… but always goes well. In the lowest grade race she has been in for a VERY long time and with the 3kg claim down to 58.5kg, she is by far the best weighted horse in the race. Barrier 4 means she will get a sit most likely 1 out 1 back and have every chance today. The only question is whether this is too short? I think it’s perfect
Second Effort: Goes well enough first up. Top weight today. Shown best over 1200m+ rather than 1000m so I’m going to suggest probably wants slightly further.
Vatican: Handles weights. Loves the valley. Maps to either lead or take a sit on the fence today. Giving weight to a Group 1 winner in Platelet today is a concern though… but has proven himself at this distance.
Unanimously: Hard to see him measuring up to this class today at these weights based on previous form lines.
Canali: Good horse, not good enough to win a race of this quality today. Will be pushing forward from barrier 6 and may be leading them around the turn, but should get passed in the final 100m.
Fab Fevola: Apart from one key run at Flemington this prep, he has been very disappointing. Last few runs have been in much easier company and couldn’t win those so hard to see a win here.
Never Can Tell: Stepping up from 3YO company today and weighted ‘ok’, but only 3.5kg better off against a Group 1 winner? Will be coming from the mid or back today (hard to map) and targeting an easy race compared to what he could have started with up in Sydney tells me he just isn’t the one I want to be on here.
Comments: Group 1 winner in Platelet going around in a 7 horse race in Open Class off 58.5kg mapping to not get stuck on the rails at above $3s? I’ll have some of that!
Confidence 85%
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 3
Strategy: Platelet to win.
Moonee Valley Race 6
Hi Belle: Super disappointing last start at Flemington when she just didn’t run on. Had every chance really. May be wanting short distances this prep from what I’ve seen. Too far back for me today.
Floria: Ran home super first up but just got run down by Five All who is a very impressive progressive type. Up to 1600m today suits 2nd up and from barrier 1 I would expect her to either lead or take a sit and be in the perfect position.
Bippo No Bungus: Another ‘good’ run last start for another ‘just didn’t go well enough’ run. Poor barrier today, won’t get as far forward as last start and I’d rather oppose today.
You’re So Good: First two runs this prep have been super. Last start ran a close 2nd to Riziz and ran home so well and didn’t deserve to be that close on the run she got for mine. Big step up today to 1600m but first up showed me enough to suggest she wants this distance. Expecting her to sit further forward and be right off the pace today. Big chance.
Goldslick: Average run at best last start coming off a super first up run. Better up to 1600m but have to find best to compete here. Barrier helps.
Keep De Rose: Has returned in poor form this prep. Would have expected ALOT more from the first two runs to win this.
Text’n Hurley: Blocked for run last start which probably cost her the win last start. Looked gone at the 500m but was SUPER in the final 300m. Horrible barrier draw is a massive concern but you just can’t count her out today even though she will be much further back than you would want in this race with a lack of speed on paper.
Are There Any: Very strong run last start behind Bonaria when blocked for run near turn which probably cost her a chance at getting home. Never runs a bad race but poorly weighted today against Floria.
Coronation Shallan: First two runs this prep have been no disgrace. Down in class today after a good 3rd to Sistine Demon but was still 3.8L off the winner. Previous start was 3.3L off a good winner as well. Will go close today up to 1600m (this looks a query though) but others appeal more at weights.
Jacinta: 3.5L 6th to Messene doesn’t look the worst form to be fair, but others appear much more in this class of race today at the weights. Should sit much closer today though from barrier.
Precious Gem: Not the most convincing win last start at course and distance given the perfect ride in running. The times ran in the race were solid though and from the barrier, should be in a good position.
Comments: On paper, Floria and You’re So Good are clearly the two to beat. They both map very well today and I have either of them winning more than 50% of the time.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie Leg Two: 2, 4, 7, 8, 13
Strategy: 2 units Floria to win. 1.25 units You’re So Good to win.
Moonee Valley Race 7
Fawkner: Love this bloke. Can’t have at this distance today. I would suggest you don’t count him out as a no hoper though, he probably still runs home well.
Spirit of Boom: Due for a win in this company soon. Last two runs have been very solid running home well behind Lankan Rupee the last two runs. Most poorly weighted of the lot of of that Flemington race last start though is the issue and will be very far back.
Shamexpress: Maps well today from barrier 7 to sit about 3 back on the outside. Probably best to rate on two and three back runs rather than last start. Weighted ok today.
Fontelina: Ignore first up run when race was over at the start. Probably a better runner down the straight and poorly weighted against others who are proven in this race today.
It Is Written: Good win last start at Moonee Valley.. didn’t beat much though and VERY poorly weighted today.
Unpretentious: Jumped poorly last start at Flemington and didn’t deliver. Horribly in at the weights on WFA-G1 scales compared to last start.
Samaready: Weighted to win today. We took her on last start and that was the correct move. I’m starting to believe the sting out of the ground is the way she wants it jumping by last prep runs. She likes this track but the barrier is a massive concern. You want her rolling into it from about the 400m mark, not getting a run at the 200m. I think Newitt will try everything he can to get off the rail early and she is the one at the weights to beat.
Gig: Good horse, but back to 1200m today after showing best at 1400m this prep. Totally outclassed today.
Gregers: Poorly weighted today in this class compared to two back run behind Lankan Rupee. Giving Spirit of Boom 1kg today for a 0.7L defeat. Maps to be able to lead if they want to and based on last run at course, that will be what they do.
Thump: Solid run last start at Warwick Farm to win in 3YO Filly company. Down 2kg but WAY up in class here today… maps well from barrier 4 but I really do struggle to back a horse like this here. The main thing that makes me want to give her a chance is how little speed there seems to be in the race.
Comments: I’m very keen on Samaready today IF we have a DEAD track by jump time. There are some fair winds around tomorrow which should be working against a Dead track, but if some of that 1-3mm of rain hits the track, it should secure what we want.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie Leg Three: 2, 3, 7, 10
Strategy: Samaready to win.
Moonee Valley Race 8
Sir Fernando: I keep thinking this fella is much older than he really is as I remember him going around at this track quite a bit and winning often. Last prep he ran 0.1L 2nd to Le Bonsir which is certainly good form over the 1200m and finished last prep with a 3.3L 3rd to Anlon which isn’t bad either! Shown his best form on dead tracks. Has won first up previously and D Oliver goes on after this fella has had 3 months off. Weight looks tough but he is a big chance today.
Zakynthos Imprintz: Has won first up in the past. Last prep was going horrible, not getting close to even winning. Hasn’t won in a very long time and wants further.
Petrify: Super dooper run first up down the Flemington straight over 1000m. Form lines suggest he is even better suited up to 1200m today. PERFECT barrier from 3 today and maps to get every chance. Huge chance.
Horacio: Last two runs have had a lot of merit. Much better weighted today and Coffey is probably better suited on him as well. Should be able to slot in close to the speed today. If runs up to two back run, he will be going close. Good place chance.
Blue Ribbon: Close 0.8L 4th to Lake Sententia to end last prep looks pretty good on her record. Has won at distance but certainly not at this class. Best runs have been 1600m and up for mine. Still in well at the weights though and will be ridden for luck.
Champagne Shisha: Very poor barrier today hurts her chances. Ran home very well last start behind Your Excellency off 52kg. Up to 54kg today but down in class here… but i’m not so sure this is much easier, if anything, probably harder! Needs a bit of luck from the draw.
Beach Front: Super win last start from out the front off a slow tempo. Kicked away and nailed it. Down 1kg here down in class but really it’s a harder race today. I don’t expect her to lead today, but it wouldn’t shock me either. Can win from any position.
Unscrupulous: Very solid first up record. Last prep ran a close 3rd to Solsay at course and distance on a similar track condition. Will need luck to get the correct run, but if she does, big chance.
Under The Louvre: Finally got a win two back and then ran on well enough last start at Geelong when overraced and was blocked for runs twice. Will be far back from barrier today but will be storming home.
Comments: One of the most open races of the day and that is represented by the prices in the market. I have 7 runners who could/should be running well enough to win this. I think we have to split these by the class of the runner. Petrify clearly showed he is better than this with a 0.5L 2nd to Knoydart last prep and 1.8L off a listed win first up. Classy Jack is yet to prove himself, the 3YO race wasn’t that special and he is stepping out of 3yo races grade into this today so I think at the price, we have to take him on. Beach Front will measure up going forward and continue to run well. The two from the back with chances are Unscrupulous who last prep measured up in this class but does need luck in running. Under The Louvre won in 2YO class at Caulfield and is working his way back up the grades. His run last start at Geelong was super and two back didn’t deserve to win at Mornington.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg Four: 3, 11, 12, 13
Strategy: Win bets on Under The Louvre and Petrify
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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