Welcome to The Profits form for Ascot and Moonee Valley. We landed our best bet last night at a very juciy price of $9 which backs up our $4 and $6 best bet and next best last Saturday. This looks to be one of those off week’s where we have to sort through the races carefully to select a few winners with the fields looking average at best. As always, do your own form, compare and good luck!
Please note that our form guides for Ascot, Rosehill and Eagle Farm will be up around 10am.
Moonee Valley Racecard
Download our one page PDF Racecard here.
Best Bet
Moonee Valley Race 2 Amber Grey
Next Best
Moonee Valley Race 1 Isabella Snowflake
Sydney Best
Race 7 Keith’s Legacy
Best Value
Moonee Valley Race 4 Galbraith
Moonee Valley Race 6 SpaceCraft
Best Lays
Moonee Valley Race 1 Hard Romp
Moonee Valley Race 7 Koe (to place)
Moonee Valley Race 5 Above (to place)
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters Paradise – http://www.puntersparadise.com.au/form-guide/
Watch previous runs here – http://bigpondvideo.com/Horse_Racing
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means a speculation pick.
Moonee Valley Race 1
Genteel: Super win first up this prep and repeated the effort last start at Flemington putting in a super final sectional. As long as she is given a good ride, will be the horse to beat.
Isabella Snowflake: Big first up win at Caulfield and followed up with a brave third in much harder company at Flemington leading down the whole straight. Her times were super considering she didn’t get any protection. Going forward, will be VERY hard to pass today.
Andre Roo Hoo: As expected won a very easy race at Cranbourne first up. Steps up in class big time today. Weighted ok but seems outclassed.
Hard Romp: Ran very well first up at Caulfield last prep. Could have trained on but this is a step up once again.
Swingin’ Willie: Good win last start at Traralgon but outclassed here.
Monogamy: Outclassed
Hyperventilate: On first two runs can’t win today on weights.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: With the prices there is no way you can saver in this race. Simply hope Isabella get’s the ride we expect. 4 units to win Isabella Snowflake.
Moonee Valley Race 2
He’s Hot To Trot: Poor last start in the Sandown Classic, but today is a step down in grade. Will be competitive off previous form but should find a few too good at the weights.
You Think So: Good first up win in MUCH easier company at Cranbourne before being outclassed at Flemington over the 2800m. Seems to be wanting a lesser distance.
Altonio: Not weighted well enough today.
Methuselah: hard to place today. Down 3kg on 7L 3rd to Niptious who ran a good 2nd last night at Cranbourne. Needs to find a few lengths today either way.
Yuka Joy: Seems to be screaming out for longer distances than the 2000m it has been going over recently and this seems to be backed up by the last win over 2400m by 2.5l. Gauci will ride her out well and could be there at the finish.
Amber Grey: Brilliant last start win and the form lines around the 2nd place finisher are very strong. Down 6kg today, absolutely weighted to win.
Bioko: Meets Yuka Joy better off today at the weights but has to find a few extra lengths that don’t seem to be there.
Quick Bond: Disappointing last start. Jumping off the horse today.
Kimurasun: Meets Amber Grey 4kg worse off today. Will be there no doubt going to the finish but on weights you can’t have.
Confidence 85%
Strategy: Weighted to win at this track today and will go very close. Happy to go each way even though it is one of our best. 3 units to win and 5 units to place Amber Grey.
Moonee Valley Race 3
Kolonga: 2.75L behind Genteel (3rd) and 3L 2nd to Isabella Snowflake last two starts. Big form lines. Speed maps perfectly here today. Up to 59kg a little bit of a worry but will box on very well.
Seaside: Ignore first up run in much harder class and look to last run of last prep where 1.3L behind Norzita. May be a better horse on the wet track but suspect will run very well today.
Potiche: First up run not the worst in the race. Meets Kolonga 3.5kg better off today.
Burndiniburn: Not for me here today off recent runs. Has to improve.
Assertive Miss: Good maiden win but this is a step up and up 2kg today. Can’t have.
City Hall: Impressive win in maiden class and down 4kg today. Could run very well.
Hot Fever: Impressive maiden winner at Ballarat more than 200 days ago. Has the ability and could return and simply just win.
Royal Chassis: Needs to show a lot more than previous two runs before spell.
La Pepper: Looks to be outclassed
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Highly doubt we will be betting this race. 4-5 runners could surprise.
Moonee Valley Race 4
Kulgrinda: Ran on well last start at Flemington. Won 4 from 7 at track but hasn’t been in best form this prep. Will run another solid race but needs luck from where she will be in run.
Obsidian Dragon: Very poor last start but a very good win two back in front of Galbraith. Suited today by barrier 1.
Winter King: A horse with strong form lines last prep who produced a fairly average run first up at Flemington. On that run and General Truce being the winner, happy to avoid today.
Alpha Proxima: Won 2 from 5 first up, 7 from 15 at distance and 2 from 6 at track. Has the ability to win and will be heading forward today. Looks well weighted.
Galbraith: Super run last two starts and is always suited by the Moonee Valley track. This seems to be a slightly easier race than last start. Will be going close.
Bigelow: Ran on well two runs back and will be hoping for luck again today. Will be a few more blocking him for a run today. Could sneak in.
Waltzes: Hard to place on form. The fact that someone is selling a share in the horse this week makes me not want to be near it! Has won at the track and performs well first up. Could run a nice race.
Signor Socks: Outclassed
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Keen as mustard on this race. 2.5 units each way Galbraith and 1.25 units Alpha Proxima to win. Putting in a lay at $1.73 for stake on Galbraith on Betfair.
Moonee Valley Race 5
Keep Cool: Looks to be harshly treated at the weights today off 59kg. 5.85L and 4.75L first two runs this prep off the win and will need to improve a few more lengths today. Hard task.
Commanding Time: Placed in all 9 races this prep including three wins. Has run 2nd last three races simply finding one too good each time. Speed maps well today. Will be there at the end.
Pacino: Looks to be coming to the end of his career. Looks safely held here today.
Shihabi: Ran well last start without winning at Flemington after a nice first up win. Hard task once again today further going up in distance. Will be there at the finish.
Whisper Down: 1.5kg worse off today against Shihabi. Will run another solid race as always. Needs to get a bit of luck.
Above: Looks to be outclassed on previous runs.
Lucripetous: Not sure what ti make of last start loss to a 100-1 shot who didn’t progress onwards after the win. Happy to be against on that result.
Apres: Ran on strongly last start behind Clang and Bang and wasn’t disgraced. Ignore run two back where tried to lead the whole way. Can run a sneaky chance at grabbing it today.
Henshaw: Strong form lines and ran on strongly to the line behind Sertorius and Hoylonny last start. Will produce another solid run today. Go close.
I Feel Good: Ran well last start behind Good Value and Galah at Flemington over the 1600m. Up in distance today and has never won from 3 starts at distance or track (not even placed). Certainly returned in good form but question marks around distance and track.
Meritorious: Big win over the 1900m last start in a very easy race. Looks outclassed here.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie leg one: 3, 5, 8, 9, 11
Strategy: Shihabi should be too strong here today and Apres has strong form lines. Unsure if betting here. 1.5 units Shihabi 0.75 units Apres.
Moonee Valley Race 6
Chasse: Ran ok first up but hard task off the 59.5kg today over the 1600m. Happy to avoid.
Lord Of Brazil: Ignore two back run and look to last start at Flemington where producing a massive run. Seemed to enjoy the long straight. Has never won at track from 3 starts (2 seconds) but is 3 wins 2 places at distance. Up 1.5kg today as expected. Will go close.
SpaceCraft: Ran on very well last start at Flemington from the front. Has won 3 from 9 at track and looks suited today off 56kg. Form stacks up and will be very hard to beat if goes forward.
Mr Chard: Can’t have on form.
Down Under Boy: Ran on very well first up over the 1400m. Looking for further and gets the 1600m today. Big issue is how far back he will be coming from. Never won from 10 attempts at track nor from 8 second up starts.
Flat Chat: The form does look a little sub standard but he is weighted to win today off 53kg.
Elusive King: Poor first up run over the 1400m first up. Down to 55.5kg which suits the horse. Has never won at distance but not the worst in the race at the weights.
The Big Steel: Failed to run on first up at Flemington. Has won at track before and is expected to go forward today. Will produce a solid run.
Kutchinsky: Average at best last start. If produces two back run can go close but happy to avoid today.
Mouro: Strong firs tup beating Sabres and then very impressive 3L win in Adelaide. Weighted to win today off 54kg.
Tuscan Fire: Form from Geelong doesn’t look good enough tow in here today.
Chile Express: 1.5kg better off today on Lord of Brazil which could be the difference. Looks well suited on weights.
New York: Meets Lord of Brazil 1.5kg better off today. Didn’t finish off the race as well as expected. Never been at track so big question on how will run.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie leg two: 2, 4, 13, 15, 16
Strategy: Big price for Spacecraft today and even Mouro seems value. Open race no doubt so don’t go big on win bets. Spacecraft 1.25 units to win and 3 units to place. Mouro 1 unit to win.
Moonee Valley Race 7
Secret Liaison: Been fairly poor this prep but wasn’t too bad last start back with the field of runners when 6.3L behind Lake Sententia who won by 5L. Still can’t have today.
Oui Si Attitude: Won well last start in a much easier race at Gawler. Step up in class here today.
Peahen: Broke through for first win in Australia since coming over from the UK last start at Cranbourne. Could improve today.
Hollywood: Won in Adelaide two back and then won very well last start again at course and distance. Will have to work early from barrier 11 but on form will be there at the finish.
Two Sugars: Impressive 8 length win last start at Cranbourne in a much easier race. Down 3kg today, could go very close off this form and last preps form.
Champagne Ruby: Strong form lines with a big run last start from start to finish 4th at Flemington. Will be suited more today by Moonee Valley from barrier 1.
Kasmaher: Nice run last start in much easier grade. Will be challenging on previous form lines but need to find much more.
Atlas Rising: Form lines average at best. Will be trying to go forward today and weighted nicely.
Aliyana: Ran on well last start and looks suited. Will be going close again.
Koe: Outclassed
Friday Hussy: Looks outclassed
Confidence 75%
Quaddie leg three: 4, 5, 6, 9
Strategy: Two clear chances in our eyes, but the prices are not sufficient enough with so much form in the race to go hard and we may not bet this. Champagne Ruby 1.5 Units to win Two Sugars 1 Unit.
Moonee Valley Race 8
Folloncia: Ran very well last start 0.9L behind Honey Flower and Dystopia. Will be sitting 3rd on the rail today hopefully. On previous runs, can go close off the weight.
Rosie’s Reward: Looks outclassed on the weights.
Queen Delight: Will struggle to match up to this grade today.
Draw Forward: Super disappointing run first up to lose in Adelaide. Can improve today but this will be much harder.
Charlottes Mint: Will need to produce a career best run firs tup here today. Happy to look elsewhere.
Umgeton: Outclassed.
City Of Song: Can’t back on previous two runs.
Tykook: Ran well last start and will run well again today. Expect to be about 1.5L off the win at the end.
Stacey Lee: Won well first up at Albury and good run 4th to Honey Flower, Koonoomoo and Spot On Maggie who all have super form right now. Could run very well.
Louisville Dancer: Ran on last start but was still a bit disappointing. Could produce a good run today.
Vain Attraction: On first up run needs to improve big time today.
Penninsula Dane: Looks well weighted. Down 3kg today. Will run well.
And Rock: Ran on very well last start at course and distance and down 4kg today. Can run well.
Kitty Cotswold: Needs to have improved significantly today.
Dare I Ask: Outclassed.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie leg four: 1, 10, 11, 13, 14
Strategy: Prices in this race seem value. Folloncia 1.5 units to win Stacey Lee 0.75 units to win.
Ascot Race 1
Beach Express resuming from over 200 days off the track today. Ran 1.25L second to Megem’s Boy last prep and meets 6kg better off today. Ran 1.5L second to Barakey which is nice form today and previous to that won three in a row. Can return and win today.
Ascot Race 2
Great first up run just missing the price by Mister Panon and meets rivals better off on the weights today. Will go forward and be there hitting the line.
Ascot Race 3
Wicked Game is a horse that has shown a load of ability. First prep form would win this race, second prep form would go close today. Looks to be big overs at the $18 mark.
Ascot Race 4
Starlight Lady has been impressive winning 4 of last 6 at 2000-2200m this prep with a 2nd and 3rd to finish off the list. Weighted nice today, this is a step up in class, but has the ability to win.
Ascot Race 5
Two stand out in this race for us with Kerrific showing some big form lines while Shamardashing will run well off Melbourne form.
Ascot Race 6
Wide open race, but it is hard to ignore Upon This Rock coming over from the east coast. Has beaten quality horses such as Moriarty who looks to be a winner today in a similar class of race. Will go close.
Ascot Race 7
Luke’s Luck: Going to be sitting all the way back today. Has the ability to put in a big swoop but suspect he will be too far back today to challenge off the weight increase.
Academus: Comes over with some strong form and is down 3.5kg today giving him more of a chance. Will be there at the finish!
El Rijes: First two runs this prep been too poor. Happy to be against.
Rebelson: Good first up win by nearly 2L at course. Will get an easy run with the only query being if he can get out in time taking a rails run.
Wombie’s Legacy: Looks outclassed on weights and previous form.
Saturday Skies: Looks outclassed on weights and previous form.
Dominating: Strong second to Rebelson last start and meets better at weights. A sneaky chance.
Virtual Trader: Looks outclassed on weights and previous form.
Antoccino: Progressive all prep and off last two runs this prep and down in weight today, has a big chance. Can run solid times.
Fuddle Dee Duddle: Big late swoop last time out. Will need a fair bit of luck, but is weighted nicely.
Darlington Abbey: Solid form lines, but looks to find a few too good for her today.
Keeper Quiet: Poor form lines this prep.
Antique Belle: Good win two back, but lost as $1.90 favourite last start. Could win today on two back run, but needs to produce best again.
Bippo No Bungus: Has the ability and a chance off weights and previous runs.
Hussy By Choice: Can’t have on previous runs. Keeps finding a few too good.
Apocalypse Now: Ran well last start, looks progressive, but not this progressive.
Helder The Painter: No.
Confidence 70%
Ascot Race 8
Pinwheel: Looks well suited here today at the weights. Sat a little further back than normal last start in the Rupert Clarke which is a strong form line race when giving 5-6kg on better horses. Gives 2kg maximum today. 4 wins from 6 first up.
Spirit Of Boom: Has been threatening to break through all prep but seems to just keep finding a few too good. Harshly treated today on the speed map and will have to come from the back of the field today. Has the ability, but needs a bit of luck off the weights.
Waratah’s Secret: Ran well last start, but needs to find a good 3-4 lengths today.
Werd: Good run behind Barakey last start, but was simply outclassed. Will be running on well to the line.
Barakey: Perfect 10 from 10 and looking to improve today. Looks to be treated harshly by the weights up 3.5kg here today. Will sit out the front and hitting the line hard. The one to beat.
Consedrvatorium: Looks outclassed here today. Should stil run well from out the front.
Travinator: The main danger to Barakey today. Will be pressing forward with Boss on board and be given a great ride. On times, will be testing the favourite today. Has won 4 from 4 at track which is a big bonus.
Hallowell Belle: Has been solid all prep putting in some very nice runs off this weight and distance. First time over at Ascot is a question. Only won 2 from 10 at distance but has the ability.
Power Princess: Won well first up but this is a much harder task today. Could be hitting the line hard.
Confidence 70%
Ascot Race 9
LuckyGray: 2 from 2 at distance and 3 from 3 2nd up. It is very hard to dispute his claims today. Will need a lot of luck to get the correct run, but should be hitting the line hard. Big question is the tempo in the race.
Fat Al: Simply he was poor at Flemington. The form lines around this horse are nothing special with horses around it not measuring up in Melbourne. May get a very easy time out front today giving him a chance, but I am happy to avoid.
Playing God: Came back this prep in fairly poor form and hasn’t improved for the spell. Doesn’t seem to be displaying the younger years form that we have come to expect. Will find this hard at weights.
Wall Street: Absolutely super run last start in the Emirates where he couldn’t get a clean run in the final 150m to hit the line hard. Should be coming late it is all about how much luck he gets in the run. Looks well weighted against this field.
Yosei: Will be ridden for luck today from the back trying to hug the rails which is always a very hard strategy to bet on. Just keeps finding a few too good and this is another step up it seems. Weighted nicely, but you would want slightly longer odds.
Westriver Kevydonn: Meets LuckyGray 4kg better off today but needs all of that weight change. Could run a very good race from out the front.
Lords Ransom: Looks outclassed today.
Battle Emblem: Looks outclassed today.
God Has Spoken: 2L loss to LuckyGray last start and meets 5kg better off. On those weights has a chance, but previous form was poor.
King Saul: Hard to place him here. Well weighted against Luckygray 5kg better off, but didn’t run well last start compared to previous run at Ascot.
Maschino: Looks poorly weighted today against others such as WestRiver Kevydonn.
Mr Moet: Has some strong Belmont form and could be the surprise of the race. Has the ability to run a nice race.
Niblick: Up against it at the weights compared to others here today.
Ranger: Certainly a hard task today after being off 258 days coming from the back, but is weighted nicely today. Could run a very strong race.
Rosie Rocket: A nice second in the Gold Cup last start, but this field is much calssier. Needs to find a few more lengths.
Zester: Looks outclassed even though much better at the weights today.
Shamardashing: Last start run was fair at Flemington. Has to improve to be sighted here today.
Our Ol’Fella: has a chance on weights, but much like many others, will find this a little too classy we suspect.
Confidence 75%
Ascot Race 10
School Rumble is weighted to win after the claim, but will have to do a lot of work early. Akhedasset has the times to win this also.
Rosehill Race 1
Better races to bet in. Hard to go past Gai’s runners in these types of races.. but save your money.
Rosehill Race 2
Golden Sunshine looks to be a very progressive Filly and is weighted nicely today.
Rosehill Race 3
The two standouts are Moriarty and Cantonese. Cantonese was super impressive last start while Moriarty did all the work and was beaten by a horse who took the easy way home. Both horses look better weighted today than previous runs.
Rosehill Race 4
Unlucky last start when coming home strongly. Rose Of Scotland is down 2kg today after claim which should help. Would appreciate a faster pace out front today which should be provided by Dark Brown Sugar.
Rosehill Race 5
Hard race to measure them. Cleansing Ale looks suited today and you can never count our Harada Bay. Not keen here.
Rosehill Race 6
Thumbtacks is a horse with a lot of upside. Resuming at Course and Distance of last start win. Should be fresh and ready to win off a nice weight.
Rosehill Race 7
Keith’s Legacy was absolutely super winning last start and has the ability to put these to the sword. Found out at the weights today but will still run a very strong race.
Rosehill Race 8
There is no doubt that Choice Words is the main threat today, but we really think Tahitian Black showed enough last start to cause an upset today.
Please Note:
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