Welcome to the Racing write up for Saturday 15 September 2012. 3/3 lays last week took us to 14/15 and our Best Value came 3rd at $23 for the place. Two of the four best bets came in so overall a pretty good day. Let’s hope we can improve on that result this week. As always, this is only a guide and you should combine your own form with our thoughts if you are placing a wager. Confidence factors are very important in our write ups and most of all remember that if we put down two horses in a race to have a bet on, that means we are on both. You can view last week’s results including a review of each race here. Good luck and happy Punting!
Moonee Valley Best Bet
Race 6 Happy Trails
Rosehill Best Bet
Race 7 Strawberry Boy
Morphetville Best Bet
Race 6 Walk With Attitude
Doomben Best Bet
Race 1 Flying Jet
Best Value
Moonee Valley Race 4 Fictional Account
Best Lays
1. Moonee Valley Race 1 Bel Thor
2. Moonee Valley Race 3 Precedence
3. Moonee Valley Race 4 Buxted
4. Moonee Valley Race 6 Rekindled Interest
5. Rosehill Race 6 Your Song
6. Rosehill Race 7 The Verminator
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters Paradise – http://www.puntersparadise.com.au/form-guide/
Watch previous runs here – http://bigpondvideo.com/Horse_Racing
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means a speculation pick.
Moonee Valley Race 1
Forget ran on strongly last start at Flemington and should be more suited by the Moonee Valley track. Will be hard to run down from Barrier 2.
About Square ran on gamely on a day when backmarkers weren’t making up a lot of ground. Got blocked for run also.
Adjuster would need to improve from last run.
Confidence 80%
Moonee Valley Race 2
This is a very wide open race. We aren’t too keen to bet in this but we will give our selections anyway!
Big Chill could run a very solid run off form.
Malasun won very well first up but was a fairly shaky ride 2nd up. Big break and could return with best. Form helped out by Members Joy winning well last week.
Games was a big first up this prep. This is a huge step up but did win well that day.
Flying Hostess is the class runner to watch in this race. Weighted well with Nolen on board from barrier 2. Will get the run of the race and form lines stack up.
Confidence 65%
Moonee Valley Race 3
Glaneuse comes into this race with some very hard to read form. Runs very well off the 1600m distance with 4 wins 2 places. Look to two back in similar class off 1.5kg more a very strong win at Flemington in a 15 horse field. This looks very winable but will have to come from far back.
Spacecraft loves Moonee Valley. Down to 53.5kg after claim and won 4 from 10 at this distance, could run a handy race but will need to improve from last up run.
Ebony Rock has always had the quality to win a good race with 4 placing from 6 at class and last start almost got it done at huge odds. Down 0.5kg from that ride and with a better jockey on board, could go very close from barrier 3. Form line suggests has been wanting dead or good tracks all along.
Ulundi has some solid runs in it’s form lines and off 52.5kg is well weighted. Happy to watch today.
Heaven’s Riches can be forgiven for last start. Up to 1600m which suits better, could run a very sneaky race if there is a solid pace up front.
Balzeus will have to improve big time to be in this.
Confidence 70%
Moonee Valley Race 4
One of the harder races of the day. Tanby the short priced favourite has had three runs this prep and every run hasn’t come within 2L of winning and hasn’t run a place. Up to a distance that suits much better with a record of 3/3 from 7 and 1/1 from 3 at track. Enjoys a good or dead ground so won’t be a problem. Is weighted fairly well here. Will run a good race but you have to wonder about the weight gap between Tanby and the rest of the field.
Fictional Account is massive overs in this race. 54kg out of the Hayes yard, you can forgive for first run and up to a distance it more prefers. Had a vet exam first run. Should run a VERY solid race here off it’s form lines.
Crabs is a horse with a lot of talent. Perfect ride last start over in Adelaide to win easily last run and could improve on that run here.
Buxted is too short on previous form. Hasn’t been within 3L in last 5 starts including the two previous runs in Australia. Happy to be against once again this week.
Shiny Buttons has been running solid races and Boss always gets the best out of him. Just can’t get a win on the board and this class looks a little too hard. Should still run well.
Scelto is hugely up in class and does look outclassed here. Should still run strongly.
A Shade Better has been progressive this prep. Strong runs behind African Heat and Dayita are good form lines. Query on dead/good tracks.
Confidence 70%
Moonee Valley Race 5
A super race with some very progressive horses!
Green Birdie is one we are happy to be against once again.
Golden Archer is the one in this race we are very keen on. The time over 1100 last start was simply blistering and no one could catch that in this race. Will go forward again and this track suits a forward run. 6 wins 2 places from 8 starts at distance and 1 win from 1 at track. Massive place value at $1.50.
Bel Sprinter is a strong horse but always has excuses. People are talking him up but frankly, I don’t think he is as good as anyone is making out. Happy to be proven wrong here but coming from the back of the track at Moonee Valley isn’t exactly the best place to be against such quality front runners.
Stratcombe is a serious threat from barrier 4. Will take a sit behind Golden Archer and run on strongly. Has some solid times to his name but doesn’t get best under him until 2nd run.
The pace was too strong for Platelet last run at Caulfield. Platelet is looking for a wetter track.
Umgeton has been running solidly but not up to this.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie Leg One – 2, 4, 5
Moonee Valley Race 6
Heart of Dreams has been no good this prep. Pass!
Keep hearing big raps for Midas Touch and hasn’t shown anything. Skip over.
Linton is a horse with some ok form coming into this with a win last prep then spelled instantly. Was a fairly poor time though.
Rekindled Interest has never won 2nd up. Does have a decent record at MV but didn’t run well at all first up. Is surely far too short at this price.
Forgive run for Green Moon first up. Expect them to take a more forward ride and will be hard to chase down.
Happy Trails is the horse you want to be around in this race. Super first up win in front of Gossip Girl and Southern Speed, second up a brave run 2nd which doesn’t suit normal way of running for the horse. Will go back today and Bossy will stoke him up from the 600m and put in a massive ride!
Sneak a Peek didn’t show much first up but has the form lines to win this. Was $12 into $6 on the day first up. May be wanting slightly longer.
Tokugawa is outclassed here and badly weighted.
Ethiopia was very strong last start over a much longer distance. Outclassed and weighted badly here but should run a strong race.
Confidence 85%
Quaddie Leg Two – 3, 4, 5, 7, 9
Moonee Valley Race 7
Avienus ran well last start but will have to improve to win this. Does seem well weighted though.
Spirit Song has won her last 2 runs at this course and distance. Has a good 4 wins 3 places from 7 at distance and speed maps well into this race. Apprentice OFF and Rawiller On. Horrible ride last start simply forgive. Goes more forward today and will be hard to chase down.
Midnight Martini is an interesting runner. First up run was ok but not break but has a poor first up record. Second up has won 2 from 3. Has won 2 from 4 at distance also. Expecting a solid run.
Rock Princess is a good horse but seems outclassed, badly weighted and needs a wet surface.
Bliss street is one to watch. Forgive first two starts where failed due to track and then vet exam, if finds best could win this.
Chateau Margaux has won 3 of last 5 and ran stongly for second last start. The issue is that heavy form isn’t really working over to good/dead tracks in this class recently. Up 1kg and onto a surface that is questionable. Also has to run on from the back where Spirit Song can control the pace out front. Happy to be against.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie Leg Three – 1, 2, 6, 10 (Shorten by removing 10)
Moonee Valley Race 8
Ignore Eagle Falls, not going well this prep.
Pied a Terre is a quality runner who is 2/2 first up. Is also 2/2 at this track and 2/2 at this distance so the figures are really in his favour. Solid runs with some big form lines under his belt. Only issue may be the weight.
Free Return can be forgiven for last start over the straight. Will get a much better ride here at MV where he is 3 wins from 3 starts and 6 wins 4 places from 13 at this distance. Is massive odds today.
Mr Make Believe ran solidly last start and could run well at another front runenr track. Only issue is that last start was a big front runner bias.
See the World has some ok form lines coming in this race but the times don’t stack up. Happ to be on others.
Shadowfax. Two back ran 1.8L behind Manighar and three back 1L behind SOuthern Speed which are massive form lines. Likes the track and distance and has good times. One to watch.
This looks a little classy for That’s The One and i’m happy to take it on.
Amah Rock will have to improve heavily to have a chance here.
Dee’N’Gee could run into the first four here but can’t see him winning. Is well weighted though.
Sea Lord up in class and up 1.5kg. Does seem to be well held now.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie Leg Four – 2, 3, 4, 8 (Shorten by removing 8)
Rosehill Race 1
A solid race all around. Brayroan could find some form second up with a more forward run. Gangster’s Choice looks harshly weighted here but could blow them away. Mon Soleil is suited here after a very solid run behind Strawberry Boy and there are questions on how Tohunga will return. Happy to avoid having a bet here.
Confidence 60%
Rosehill Race 2
Arinosa was huge last start leading start to finish and from barrier run only up 1kg from last start, looks to be the one to beat. Can’t be on anything else here. Interested in how Westchester and Quizzed run here.
Confidence 70%
Rosehill Race 3
Kilauea is big overs in this race off 54kg. Should run very solidly and enjoys the track.
Confidence 70%
Rosehill Race 4
Tullamore has never won or placed at this distance and has never won at this track. Happy to avoid.
Fast Clip put in two solid runs last start and does have 1 win 3 places from four starts first up but 1400m seems to not be his distance with 5 places from 7. Weighted ok but not awesomely.
People keep talking up Centennial Park as a huge chance in this race. Love the horse but can’t be on it here.
Huge first up run from Dystopia. Will be hard to run down.
Fat Al didn’t trial all that well and is a longer distance horse. Happy to be against.
The same can be said for Ambidexter. Runs well but on longer distances.
Confidence 70%
Rosehill Race 5
More Joyous is $1.25 for a reason. She is a superstar and this is a class below her. Weighted nicely and will just simply win.
Streama could run well and also expect Gai’s Choice and Emotional Circus to put in game runs.
Confidence 95%
Quaddie Leg One – 1
Rosehill Race 6
Nechita is a superstar and is the one to beat. Weighted to win and will most likely just bolt in.
The ones with chances to run her down are Albrecht (will need to improve), Kabayan (needs to run faster times) and Epaulette (has the form).
Confidence 85%
Quaddie Leg Two – 10, 1, 4
Rosehill Race 7
Strawberry Boy has been brillaint this prep. First up solid win in a solid time and last start the same thing. The times are solid and will be hard for anyone to run down. Down 5kg for this run and will test these.
Stout Hearted can’t be dismissed. Times are solid but will need to run faster than has produced previously.
Crafty Irna is weighted well and will be there at the end.
Big mail around for Maules Creek. Down from WFA-G2 and down 4.5kg.. will run a solid race but honestly, can’t be on it.
IronStein ran close in two Group 3’s last start. Down 2kg from those runs and could find best if up to it.
Confidence 90%
Quaddie Leg Three – 11, 8, 5
Rosehill Race 8
Eucumbene is a super price here. Runs well on any ground and was dynamite last prep. Will continue on with solid form. One to watch from the race is Upbeat. Should run strongly. The play here is to back Eucumbene E/W.
Confidence 80%
Quaddie Leg Four – 1, 2, 4, 5, 11
Doomben Race 1
Flying Jet is weighted well down in class and off a super run last start. Should simply just win as long as solid ride given.
Confidence 80%
Doomben Race 2
Platinum State is well weighted here and will be hard to keep out.
Confidence 70%
Doomben Race 5
Huge step down in class for Jugahlation here. Back with confidence. The ones to beat are Jet Style and Solebid.
Confidence 75%
Doomben Race 6
Interesting runner in Jabiru Dreaming having won nine in a row! Step up in class here for sure but on times will run very well.
The Sixties is value and well weighted here.
Confidence 65%
Doomben Race 7
Grey Assignment won well last start. Bold Glance put in a massive run last start and could find best here as well.
Confidence 80%
Doomben Race 8
In the final race of the day Dawn Good Idea has a massive swoop on him and could run even better today.
Confidence 70%
Morphetville Race 4
Road Warrior on form will also be hard to beat here and Finiguerra should run well (bad first up record).
Confidence 70%
Morphetville Race 6
Walk With Attitude over from Melbourne. Some very nice form lines and will go very close.
Confidence 85%
Morphetville Race 7
Happy to be on Royal Bender here.
Confidence 85%
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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