A big day at the races at Randwick with some huge prize money up for grabs. Illo looks like the best value of the day for us in the last at Randwick while Atlantic Jewel looks a lock for best bet. The biggest long shot we are keen on is Master of Design.

Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use – http://www.skyracing.com.au/tab/form/summary.php?meetingid=34238&raceid=298839
Speedmaps and form from Punters Paradise – http://www.puntersparadise.com.au/form-guide/
Watch previous runs here – http://bigpondvideo.com/Horse_Racing

Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means a speculation pick.

Randwick

Race 1
Dance on Stars is a interesting horse. Raced very greenly in both starts 2L loses at $2.30 and $4.30. Times were fairly average but a long spell should bring it back right. Watch this horse.
Ichihara got us the chocolates in it’s last run at a good price. Runs well on times and this is a winable race. Geez it’s short but.
Agueda is the most interesting runner here. Has some very good form behind the likes of Jade Marauder (1L), Driefontein (0.2L) and Raceway. Times are solid and better weight in this race than previous. 1100 looks to be the right distance for it.
Finally, Gold Bender is a horse with some interesting form. 3.3L 2nd behind Flying Snitzel on it’s 2nd start. Won last start in a fast 1:03 time racing Greenly. Horse has a lot of improvement in it and could be the value of the race.
Confidence Factor – 75%

Race 2
Galah has been very poor this prep but this is a much easier race than it has been racing in. Forgive last start and look at the 1600m race where 2.3L behind Mosheen. This is good form and it comes back down 2 classes in group company and only gains 1.5kg. Don’t discount this horse at all.
Now you know has won 2 races over this distance but 0 places or wins in this class. This is a big step up and could run well but happy to be against this.
Fat Al is short here with some fairly ok times on it’s back but this is a very short price for such a big step up in company. Happy to be no where near it here.
Brambles comes into this with some good times over 1600 with some good city form in Melbourne. Will run well.
Finally, Imperial Grand could run a good race at odds.
Confidence Factor – 75%

Race 3
Plumm is an interesting runner here with a 1.3L loss in a 3F-GP3 two back. Should run well on this form.
Full Spirit has some good times to it’s name but you have to always be worried about a NZ starter first up. Does have the times to go on and win this though.
Secret Liaison is the class in this race and if puts down a run like last start, will win here.
Confidence Factor – 65%

Race 4
Starting with Rain Affair. The quality horse in the race and deserves to be favourite. Will put down a fast pace and lead this race up. Will run very well.
Neeson got interference on the turn and almost ran down Rain Affair last start. You have to think it has a good chance up to reverse the form here off of the same weight.
FoxWedge won last up beating Hay List who was very underdone in a slow 1:10.2 – it won’t get a soft race like that here and we are VERY happy to be against it.
Hallowell Belle looks to be outclassed here. Should run well but can’t have it.
Finally, we look at Master of Design. Ran a massive 3rd in Group 1 last prep over 1200 in 1:22.2 after leading for most the race. Looks to be suited better by the trip back in difference and HOPEFULLY the connections give it a chance and push it forward with cover behind Rain Affair. Has the sectionals and times to win this and is MASSIVE value.
Confidence Factor – 60%

Race 5
Fair to say this is a race of 2.. but which horse do you back?
Pierro was brave in the win last week but the course was favouring front runners. Randwick SHOULDN’T but if it is, then look different than we are.
We really like All Too Hard here. The extra 200m will suit it big time. The horse can win from slow AND fast times, it is an absolute gun.
Confidence Factor – 80%

Race 6
Atlantic Jewel is an absolute gun. Sure, you can be a little concerned about the distance but a gun horse can win this no problems. After a long and strong spell, this horse should win without breaking a sweat.
A horse with a slight hope here is Mid Summer Music. Was given a horrible ride first up in a harder sprint race. Ignore that run and look back two or three. Will be in this so watch for it.
Born to Rock has run 0.5L third in a harder race than this. Would have to come back very well to have a chance here and can’t see it doing that, but could surprise.
Finally, More Strawberries is a horse with quality and could run well here.
Confidence Factor – 95%

Race 7
Probably the hardest race to pick for the day.
Starting with Silent Achiever. Looked the winning coming home frm dead last really strong but the bias got it. Extra 400m looks like it will work in the horses favour.
Ethiopia has been good in all 3 of it’s runs and was unlucky last start not to win. Seems like it will be suited by the extra 400m here.
Polish Knight is very interesting. The jockey started to pull it up thinking it broke down then it went BAM and let down for him and won big time. Will run a good race.
Rekindled Alliance has been disappointing. has been given every opportunity and will find at least 1 horse better than it.
Ocean Park shouldn’t be discounted here. Runs really well over 2000m and this will go to the line over 2400.
Laser Hawk proved how well front runners had it last week. Has won 4 of 5 starts and 0.5L 3rd to Mosheen only loss. Not sure if it will enjoy the extra 400m but this is the tester for sure.
Finally, Sangster. Cassidy will give it every chance. Could surprise with a big run.
Confidence Factor – 40%

Race 8
Another hard race.
Efficient comes into this one really well. A respectable effort last up 2.8L behind Manighar and dropping down big time in class, could find the line and best here.
Ignore last start of Zavite where checked hard and needed Vet Exam after race. Down 2KG and in same company. Should be taken forward here.
Harder task for Once Were Wild here and can’t see it getting up.
Older Than Time is consistent and will run on well again but can’t see it winning.
Permit had a big win last start over Precedence and is down 1kg for that effort. Looks the favourite on paper.
Anudjawun will put down another solid effort here but you can’t back it.
Heard good things and talking about Guns AT Five. Expect it to put down a bold run.
Our Serena is a MASSIVE price here. Ran 0.2L second to Drunken Sailor three back who finished 3rd recently to Manighar and Americain. Ignore last two starts and hopefully they take the horse forward. Could be a big long shot value pick.
Confidence Factor – 50%

Race 9
All Legal comes into this race with Cassidy onboard and down 1.5kg from 1.8L loss in a Group 3. Recent form suggests will come in well with extra 200m and perfect barrier. Could be value.
Legsman has won in this class before but has never won first up and Cassidy off. Look elsewhere but could run a place or first 4.
Happy Trails was very disappointing last start. Looked outclassed. Expect a run closer to the middle of the field this time.
Speediness has been underdone the last two runs and we really can’t have it here. It has let us down too much and seems to be progressing backwards.
Raspberries won a group 3 five runs back but this looks much harder. Could run a very solid race and looks value if you forgive last start.
Ironstein was very disappointing first up but record suggests it’s in with a shot if given the right ride.
The Verminator is a group 1 winning horse (big win) but has a poor first up record. Could upset.
Foreteller won a group 3 race 3 races back. Has a horrible 2nd up record but did win 2nd up last prep. Will need to show a lot more than first up run.
Shannara can’t be discounted with last 2 runs
Finally, Illo steps FAR back in class here and is currently $9 fixed, more than it started two back in a WFA-G1 with a MUCH harder field and 0.5KG more. This is value.
Confidence Factor – 85%

Flemington

Race 2
Placement steps back in class to FM-89 where she won last start by 2.3L. A valid second last start and will find this race a little easier. Will run well
So Pristine is a horse that wasn’t ran very well in recent times apart from the 1400 at a country meet. This is a much harder task and we just can’t be on it.
Jelly Baby is an interesting horse. Won well in it’s last two starts and looks suited here. Could find best.
Finally, Epingle steps up in distance after a good run in lesser class. Up in class and only down 1kg, get the feeling one or two will be too good for it here.
Confidence Factor – 70%

Race 3
Ignore last start run by Sharnee Rose who steps back in class here big time. Has a 0.8L 2nd behind Atlantic Jewel to her name and ran VERY well first up this prep. A fair bit of weight on her back but times suggest it won’t matter. Big value.
Others in this race with changes are Blue Ribbon, City of Song, Tykook, Houston Benefactor and many others!
Confidence Factor – 70%

Race 4
Tough race but a few stand out.
Firstly, Randall finished 2nd over 1600 in a 3Y-GP1 by 1.3L last up and before that won a 3YO. Off a 5 month spell the horse should be ready to run well and win here. Looks value off 58kg.
Counter Sign will front run this and has some good times over the distance. Big step up in class though and 57kg may be too much.
Finally, Platelet won a 3F-GP3 last up and has ran VERY well the last 5 starts including a big formline 3rd 0.8L to Adamantium. Will be hard to hold out here. Only issue is the weight.
Confidence Factor – 65%

Race 5
Hard race to pick!
Norsqui is the big value of this race. Back to the 2000ish which it enjoys and a decent weight also here. Has the form to pull this one out.
Playwright could find his best here but will need to swoop hard.
Chasse is a BIG chance here. Only concern is he has never won at Flemington in 9 starts.
Can’t ignore Module, has nice form lines.
Stole won a good race last up and could run a handy race here.
Gottino has run very well it’s last 4 runs and seems to be progressing nicely. Could win this.
Confidence Factor – 75%

Race 6
Mawingo is a horse with big claims. Has won a 3Y-GP3 and ran 4th in a 3Y-GP1 in Germany. This looks a much easier race and if it is ready to go, wins this with ease.
The Wingman has been consistant this prep and is due for a good win. Has the ability and weighted nicely here.
Under The Hat should be forgiven for last start. Loves the long Flemington straight and will be given every chance by Nikolic onboard. Weighted very well to win.
Confidence Factor – 70%

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All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not           recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed         above. Bet at your own risk.
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