Welcome to The Profits form guide for Royal Ascot Day 2. The first day of the carnival brought a few upsets our way and the bets didn’t go as planned. Luckily, Dawn Approach saluted and the winner of the 5th paid a good price as our 2nd pick. Onwards and upwards for Day 2! As always, I hope my form matches up with yours. Good luck and happy punting!
Best Best
Ascot Race 3 Al Kazeem
Next Best
Ascot Race 5 Beldale Memory
Best Value
Ascot Race 4 Elusive Time & Excellent Guest
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means a speculation pick.
Ascot Race 1
Blaine: Good win at York about a year ago and then also in August but since shown nothing. Has ability but doesn’t seem to be going well.
Pearl Flute: Bit of a penalty today at weights compared to last start win which was strong against older horses in France. Reproduce that run and can go well.
Tawhid: Ran well enough in the German Guineas but get the feeling needs to find more than that effort.
Ajraam: A runner who comes in unexposed today. Won 2 from 2 but this is certainly a step up. Not the worst chance at the prices.
Complimentor: Dettori onboard is interesting but hasn’t won in last 3 runs.. keeps finding 1 or 2 too good and will again.
Don’t Bother Me: Better suited today back to 1600m but hasn’t won in a long time. Need to find more.
Gale Force Ten: Last start 2nd to Magician who failed yesterday at Ascot. Never looked the winner there and has to find MORE today.
Garswood: Ran very well first up to win at Newmarket before being fairly disappointing next start. If runs to best, can win… but has to reproduce first up form.
Here Comes When: Looks to be outclassed here on form lines.
Ian’s Dream: Took 3 tries to win a maiden. No thanks.
Jammy Guest: Better suited back to 1400m today… could be a sneaky chance at huge odds.
Montiridge: Impressive win first up this prep to back up strong 2YO form lines. Looks to be great value all things considered today and can go very close.
Music Master: Showed potential when running 2nd in listed race last start but has to find a bit more today. Can win.
Mutin: 1600m back to 1400m always a worry for me but this is an unbeaten horse coming over from France. In with every chance but I’m happy to take it on.
Ninjago: One to watch for late. Impressive win at Ascot first up this prep and just got too far back last start. Has ability.
One Word More: Not in this on form.
Parliament Square: Ran well enough last start but has to find many lengths.
Tamayuz Star: Looks outclassed.
The Brothers War: Looks to be better suited to 1200m than 1400m but not a stretch today. Can run a decent race and might place.
Well Acquainted: Looks a little outclassed today on previous form.
Pearl Sea: Didn’t show much first up this prep in a race she had to win to have a chance in this.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: A tough race to start the day but Montiridge stands out. Ninjago looks overs and will be hitting the line hard late.
Ascot Race 2
Beatrice Aurore: Ran poorly first up but suspect can improve on that run and produce similar to last prep. Has ability to go close.
Chigun: Won Group 3 last start but finished behind Dank in previous run. Has every chance today and should be better suited by 1600m than 1800m. Won last 3 runs on 1600m!
Dancewiththedevil: New Yard.. but has won 5 Group 1s back in South Africa. Hasn’t run for over a year but has the ability on last form. Huge overs today on ability alone.
Dank: Quality win first up and looks to be flying. Looks overs considering the win.
Duntle: First up Group 3 winner this prep but was only a 5 horse field. Won 3 of last 4 with a 2nd the only other result. Every chance today.
Intense Pink: Not in this on recent form.. needs to improve big time.
Ladys First: Continues to run ok but won’t be winning.
Sarkiyla: Ran very well last start in Group 2 company in France and just keeps going close without winning. Suspect will get far back once again and need luck.
Sweetnessandlight: Not good enough to win this today.
Thistle Bird: Others appeal even with the win last start. Win wouldn’t shock.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Hard to go past Dank today on the form lines but this is a very difficult race. The South African runner Dancewiththedevil first up today looks overs.
Ascot Race 3
The feature race of the day – the Price of Wale’s Stakes (Group 1). Check out this field!
Afsare: First up this prep after some very solid runs last prep for a win and 3 seconds over distance in last 4 runs. Can go very close today if at best and looks overs to place.
Al Kazeem: Won 3 in a row and was a huge win last start smashing Camelot at Curragh. Expect to finish ahead of Camelot again today.
Camelot: Looks exposed and under the odds today considering the beating last start by Al Kazeem. Happy to bet around or even lay.
Maxios: Won a Group 2 and Group 1 in last three runs over in France. COmes here in career best form and looks suited. Looks over the odds.
Miblish: Can’t win on previous form.
Mukhadram: Good Group 3 win on return last start but this looks another level. Could go close and probably great odds for the price.
Red Cadeaux: Wow. $28 for RC over 2000m after finishing 2nd in the Dubai World Cup? That price is crazy. Ran well enough over in Kyoto since and ignore last start. The market seems to be under-estimating him.
Saint Baudolino: Ran well enough in Meydan last start for 4th but has to certainly improve again today. Best form on last prep goes close.
Side Glance: Hard to see the progression from the previous runs including the runs at Meydan.
Windsor Palace: Not won in a long time and won’t get close to them.
The Fugue: Very strong runner who hasn’t been seen since November. All reports are that is flying and will certainly go close.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Al Kazeem is the stand out and on last start it is hard to not back the horse. The Fugue looks to be the clear danger for mine and is a minimum of a saver bet.
Ascot Race 4
Sweet Lightning: Don’t dismiss fully but form lines don’t seem strong enough and the ground doesn’t look to suit.
Premio Loco: Returned poorly and not up to this on those 2 runs.
Elusive Time: Won 4 in a row in Sweden last prep including a Listed race. This is much harder but form suggests is talented and could very much have trained on for this. Looks huge overs.
Don’t Call Me: Continues to run well but not get the cash with X3 2nds from last 4 starts. Looks a harder race but will be there for a place.
Navajo Chief: Poorly weighted today and seems to be better suited to York. Still, could run a game race.
Trade Commissioner: Not been sighted since November.. last 3 runs were poor but two previous were solid. Unknown how the horse comes back.
Sandagiyr: Didn’t measure up here last start but since has run some solid races in Meydan. Needs to still find many lengths.
David Livingston: Ran well enough last start at Meydan but suggest needs to find much more today.
Two For Two: Last two runs very solid and on those runs will be competing for a placing.
Fury: Headgear goes on today after fairly average first up run. Needs to find much more.
Santefisio: Can’t see going close on previous runs this prep.
Burwaaz: Last two runs no where near good enough for this.
Princed of Johanne: Won this event last year and was back to best one might suggest when ran 2nd last start. Don’t dismiss.
Fire Ship: Not returned well enough.
Directorship: Poorly weighted today but does go well at track and distance. Still, looks hard against it.
Educate: Won 4 of last 5 but this looks an additional step up. Can go close but I’m happy to bet around.
Field of Dream: Not returned well enough… price looks major unders.
Es Que Love: Not going well enough to suggest can win this.
Arsaadi: Not returned well enough.
Excellent Guest: Ran very well last year 2nd in this and won a very strong Victoria Cup here last month. Can go close.
Stirring Ballad: Ran well enough last three starts to suggest can go well again today, but price looks a little short.
Belgian Bill: Not going well enough to win this.
Global Village: Won’t be suited today by the ground and isn’t running well enough it seems.
Toto Skyllachy: Poorly weighted. No chance.
Burke’s Rock: Won a listed event last month and this is obviously MUCH harder today.
Winter’s Night: Need to have found an extra leg since May of 2012 when last ran to be winning here.
Redact: Hasn’t won in over 2 years and doesn’t seem to be suited today.
Spa’s Dancer: Returned well last two starts but this is obviously a harder race. Could sneak a place.
Moran Gra: Competitive but only finished 6th in past two starts. Hard to see the advance to 1st today.
Captain Bertie: Hard to see him going close on the ground today.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Elusive Time AND Excellent Guest both on the Each Way basis.
Ascot Race 5
Alutiq: Can improve today but not to this level I suspect.
Baytown Kestrel: Only won a maiden but not sure is in this league!
Beldale Memory: Good listed race win last start at York and comes into this well. Can go 3/3 today.
Blithe Spirit: Can run an ok race today but hard to see a win.
Bye Bye Birdie: Took 3 runs to win a maiden.
Corncockle: Pulled hard last start so probably a forgive but form isn’t great anyway.
Diamond Lady: Not up to this.
Excel’s Beauty: Only won a maiden that was average.
Fast: Only wona maiden on Heavy. Wayyy different ground today so hard to rate.
Fig Roll: Strong third last start but this looks much harder.
Fire Blaze: Won a fairly handy maiden first up and looks progressive. Beat a fair few in this field.
Go Glamorous: Not in this.
Kaiulani: Showed promise last start. Could be a surprise winner.
Lorimer’s Lot: Not good enough.
One Chance: Looks to have the potential but needs much more today.
Oriel: Shouldn’t get blocked today but hard to back when had 2 runs and couldn’t win either.
Quatuor: Won twice this prep and was solid last start. Can go close.
Reroute: Not sure this filly is the right price. Should be double the odds. Won ok but fast turn around.. don’t like this at all.
Rizeena: Showed enough to suggest can win today. Beat home Oriel as well this prep.
Robynelle: Not good enough.
Sandsman’s Girl: Not good enough.
Survived: Could improve enough to place today. Got potential.
Sweet Emma Rose: Not sure will match up here.
Ventura Mist: Good win last start. Could come late.
Confidence 75%
Strategy: Hard to go past Beldale Memory today while Fire Blaze beat many chances in this race and is a good second option.
Ascot Race 6
Zurigha: Ran well enough last start in Paris but off 60kg today, looks to be a tough ask.
The Gold Cheongsam: Hard to see the progression on first up poor run.
Nargys: Forgive first up start and look to previous runs. Looks to come in well.
Waterway Run: Double the price of Zurigha for no reason. Very progressive type.
Hint of a Tint: Good last start but don’t expect a win today.
Senafe: Good 3rd in German Guineas and comes in very well. Looks progressive enough.
Light Up My Life: Ignore last start when ran far too hard. Still, has to find some very big form.
Desert Image: Hard to see a win here off first up run.
Bracing Breeze: A tad immature for mine. If winning today should have won last start.
Fleeting Smile: Looks progressive but this is a big step up.
Annie’s Fortune: Shown nothing since maiden win.
Sorella Bella: Very average last start. Ignore that form and could place.
Uleavemebreathless: Might not have the stanima to stay with a name like that! Poor form.
Mango Diva: Big win last time out and form looks very solid to win here today.
Woodland Aria: Not sure if up to this grade at the distance. Could surprise me though and is well backed in the betting.
Califante: Not the worst in race but hard to see a win here today.
Typhoon Lily: Hard to win on last start run.
Go Angellica: Very poor running over in Meyden. No thanks.
Flawless Beauty: Only won a maiden and poor since.
Harmonic Note: Hard to see much more improvement in the horse this prep but continues to run ok. Could place.
Annecdote: Good win last start at Newbury but this is a little harder. Well weighted it seems but needs to find more again today.
Valtina: Not good enough here.
Lizzie Tudor: Not good enough on first up run. Has to find much more.
Stresa: Hard to see the progression from last three runs to this.
Trapeze: Running ok but not up to this class recently.
Auction: Won 3 in a row and is an improver. Could sneak home.
Confidence 65%
Strategy: Mango Diva the stand out while Auction is well in at the weights.
Please Note:
All of the above are the opinions of the author and are not recommendations or advice. The author may not be taking every bet listed above. Bet at your own risk.
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