Welcome to The Profits preview from Caulfield 1 July 2017. I’ve been out and walked the track and with the rail out 7 the track is very fresh with no marking and is expected to play even throughout the meeting. With that in mind, i’m looking to identify races where front runners are getting the right runs and gaps on those favoured from out the back. I will be on course as always watching them from the yard and look forward to providing you with my thoughts on Twitter. As always, I hope you have a good day. Good luck and happy punting.
Best Bet
Caulfield Race 6 – Revolving Door – 3 units @ $5.50 to win. Valliano – 2 units $12 to win.
Next Best Bet
Caulfield Race 9 – Onpicalo – 2 units Each-Way @ $11/$3.50.
Best Each-Way Bet
Caulfield Race 4 – Coldstone – 1.25 units Each-Way @ $7.00/$2.70.
Other Bets
Caulfield Race 5 – Sullivan Bay – 1 unit @ $17.00 to win. A Lotta Love – 1.5 units @ $6.00 to win.
Caulfield Race 8 – In Fairness – 0.5 units Each-Way @ $34/$9.00.
Caulfield Quaddie
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 2, 5, 6, 8
Quaddie Leg Two: 4, 5, 8, 13, 17
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 2, 5, 6, 8
Quaddie Leg Four: 2, 4, 5, 11, 15
Tools
Skyracing (TAB) form guide – this is what we use for the basics – http://www.skyracing.com.au
Speedmaps and form from Punters – http://www.punters.com.au/form-guide/
Follow Racing Victoria Stewards on twitter for tactic changes, track conditions and ride reports
I find all of the best early odds at www.odds.com.au
Our results are updated daily here – Betting Spreadsheet
Index
Red means Top pick. Blue means second pick and Green refers to a saver pick. Orange means the pick looks value.
If you prefer to hear the race by race thoughts with a bit more detail on runners I like, then watch the video below.
Caulfield Race 1 – 1200m – Schweppes Handicap
1. Royal Phoenix: Strong win first up down the Flemington straight. Certainly can improve onwards and upwards from that run on the day.
2. Nistaan: Winkers first time. Went well for 2nd in the 2Yo Classic at Ballarat 225 days ago. McEvoy put the horse out and bringing back here today. Looked a nice type and can have improved enough to measure up here.
3. Lone Eagle: No luck last start at Flemington when just couldn’t get through and was a forgive run. Previous run at Sandown was a very good run. Clearly, one to beat here. Only issue is having to go back from the barrier.
4. Prevailing Winds: Blinkers first time. Solid win at Wodonga beating Wired on a Soft 7 before not running up to standard at Swan Hill the next start. Can run better here but does look really good on wetter.
5. Pure Emotion: Got the run of the race very slow out the front at MV last start and won easily. Certainly not a top class horse on what we have seen yet, but can run well.
6. River Jewel: Good Vobis Gold win last start at Swan Hill and is going from strength to strength. Maps nicely from Barrier 5 today. Can win.
7. Evil Cry: Eye-catcher late at Flemington last start and scratched from Flemington to run here this week to avoid Gold Symphony. Respect
9. Paint the Stars: First starter and hasn’t been backed in betting.
11. Olympic Lad: Winkers first time. Bendigo 7th first up. Hard to suggest on that run even though he ran on from the back, just need to see the run here.
Comments: Good race overall with Royal Phoenix, Nistaan, Lone Eagle and River Jewel the main chances on paper. Lone Eagle is the top pick while I really respect Royal Phoenix and River Jewel.
Confidence 70%
Strategy: Lone Eagle to win. Saver bet Royal Phoenix.
Caulfield Race 2 – 2000m – Dream Thoroughbreds Handicap
1. All Out of Love: Horrible last start. Ran very well here course and distance two back and will be ridden similar out the back and having the last run at them. Wants the speed on.
2. Kiwia: Ran very well the last start from out the back at Flemington and just missed beaten by Royal Order on the day. Up in grade but will measure up. Good barrier.
3. Guangzhou: Blinkers off first time – winkers on again. Had his shots last start but just not as effective first time to 2000m. Will run much better today back to Caulfield and 2nd time at 2000m.
4. Royal Order: Blinkers first time. Good maiden win two back and then stormed home the last start at Flemington from out the back to win very well. Expect them to sit a little further forward today with Blinkers on and from the inside barrier. Looks well suited and can run very well again.
5. Atlantic Fox: Tongue Tie again. CL1 winner last start at Echuca in decent enough time. Looked a good win and ran very well two back behind Jaminzah and My Paisann. Can run well. Williams on.
6. Captain Rhett: Disappointed hugely last start at Flemington and on the quick backup. Been showing a lot at home and up to 2000m is where he is expected to run his race. Goes well here at Caulfield. Respect.
8. Toffatin: 0-58 runner last start at Swan Hill. Has to improve loads to even a place here on that form.
9. Savvy Dresser: Maiden winner tow back at Cranbourne and then ran well on a Heavy track the last start at Mornington. Win wouldn’t be a total shock on form lines… but has to improve.
10. Windbern: Five runs this prep but yet to win. Hardest race all prep and I can’t see this one winning.
11. Iheartpoppy: Winkers first time. Hype horse. Had her chances last start at Pakenham but just not good enough. I can’t see this.
13. Gold Warrior: Maiden winner at Donald over 1600m last start. Shown very little previous tot hat and that was a low-grade maiden.
Comments: One of the hardest races to pick on paper with the large majority of quality runners going back in the run. Just how genuine will the pace be? This really looks a race where we could find a forward outsider from the yard.
Confidence 40%
Strategy: Back Kiwia and All Out of Love.
Caulfield Race 3 – 1600m – Sheen Group Plate
1. Coldstone: Well back in class today after a disappointing run as favourite last start when not suited at Moonee Valley off a strong tempo. Previous start ran very well over 1600m and looks well suited here with the 1.5kg claim back to 61kg. Will be on speed and hard to hold out. Could very well be 1/1 in run if not on speed. Goes best over 1600m.
2. Curragh: Been going around a while this prep and has always been running well without ever looking a chance. Back in grade but I still want to take the horse on here. Don’t think it’s good enough to beat all these home.
3. Clairvaux: Horrible first up. Up to 1600m which is more suited but hasn’t been close to best in a very long time. Need to see.
4. Can’t Refuse: Two runs this prep for 2nd last and last. Horrible form and can’t suggest.
5. Cosmic Lights: Nice enough run from back the last start at Sale but this is a much harder ask again. Good run two back at Moonee Valley a bit of a moral beaten on the day. Have to respect at weights and Williams goes on. Good barrier.
6. You’ll Dash for Cash: Poor first up over similar distance first up. Best last prep was seen on wetter over further. Needs to peak.
7. Happy as Hell: Hasn’t won in over 2 years and first up run didn’t suggest much. Hurdle trial between. Looking for further.
9. Don’t Get Excited: Donald BM-70w inner and then fairly beaten the past four starts in easier grade than this. Hard to suggest even on best.
10. Don’t We Love It: Good winner two back at Sandown but fairly beaten the last start at Sale by Strike Force and a few others.
11. Annaman: Trialled heading in but showed nothing for mine. Went okay up in Queensland and this looks a bit of a step back in class. May need further is only issue.
12. Hardington: Blinkers first time, gelded, Tongue Tie first time. UK import that won last prep over 2000m twice in nice ratings. Looka good type… barrier the issue.
13. Approved Anger: Won in this class of race at Ballarat two back before going around at Flemington and running a piss poor race. Need to see from the yard.
14. Sir Sagamore: Going well in easier grade recently but still has been a long way off wins. Others preferred.
15. Walloon Region: Three runs this prep and SP profile has been poor until the last start when a bit of money came nad he improved for 3rd. Has to improve again.
16. Ayers Rock: Best seen over much further. Average at best first up over 1400m. Needs another run I’d suggest.
Comments: Coldstone is the main standout in this race for mine. Expecting a solid tempo to be on out front and that will suit Coldstone perfectly here. Cosmic Lights looks the main threat. Happy to bet Coldstone at the odds.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Coldstone – 1.25 units Each-Way @ $7.00/$2.70
Caulfield Race 4 – 1100m – Sheamus Mills Bloodstock Handicap
1. Clipper: Won two highways in a row up north and is clearly a nice type of sprinter on Good, Soft or Heavy. Looks to have gone to the next level this prep.
3. Moonlites Choice: Strong win at Swan Hill last start. Previous run wasn’t great at Flemington. Weir runner and Williams onboard.
4. Run Gypsy Run: Good win here two back before 4-wide no cover and folded up like a deck chair in the straight. Much better than the last start run and looks well weighted. Will be on speed and hard to get past.
5. Invictum Domina: A grade below this last prep. Came back this prep trialling well and then winning impressively first up from on speed at Sandown. Will push forward from outside barrier and need to be as good here.
6. If Not Now When: Ran well last start 3rd at Moonee Valley and will be better for the run and back to 1100m today at this track. Continues to run well but does get back and run on. Bad barrier.
7. Tris: Hasn’t placed in the last two runs in similar/harder company. Has been running well but not ‘great’. Can see placing here but can’t see the win.
8. Unique Lovely: Sensational win last start at Moonee Valley flying home from out the back with the low weight. Up in weight but still well in here at the weights. Only issue is a barrier but should get a 3-wide run with cover.
9. Princess of Queens: Last prep won well at the course over 1400m from on speed. Looks short of her best though here first up but clearly a nice type.
10. A Sterling Dash: BM-58 grade winner four back. Held up for runs the last start in this grade behind Unique Lovely. Personally, don’t think she is good enough regardless for this.
11. Miss Vesper: Suited by the speed and tempo the last start at Moonee Valley when sat on speed, kicked clear but found one too good lately. Weighted okay but way too many runners on speed to consider here.
12. Sneakers: Wide no cover on speed last start but for mine shouldn’t have been that much of an issue on the lakeside on that day. Still ran well 2nd to Invictum Domina but has to improve here.
13. Ariaz: Well backed last start but under pressure a long way out. Hard to have.
14. Flying Dragon: Heavy track maiden winner. Fairly beaten the last start in much easier. No.
16. Mrs Martin: Looked nice in the yard the last start at Moonee Valley coming off a BM-78 win but was just no match on the day from out the back. Harder here.
17. Cubby: Maiden winner two back. Not the worst run last start in BM-64 grade but this is harder.
18. Mesclun: Maiden winner finally after 7 runs two back. Harder here.
Comments: Looking to play this race from on speed. Clipper could be a very very good type while so could Invictium Domina. Run Gypsy Run back to the two back run should be right in this while Unique Lovely and If Not Now When are obvious chances. I have to go with on speed runners.
Confidence 65%
Strategy: Backing both Clipper and Run Gypsy Run.
Caulfield Race 5 – 1200m – Tile Importer Handicap
1. Whistle Baby: Disappointed the last start at Moonee Valley but it was run at a pace that just doesn’t suit her. Thought they were finishing her with the last start run but I reckon they want to go out with a win. Steps back in distance with a 3kg claim down to 59kg. Only issue is the barrier, but it shouldn’t be too much of an issue with only one bend.
2. A Lotta Love: Had a freshen up since running 7th in G3 company the last start coming off a fail in G1 class and a good 4th in the Vobis Gold Sprint. Always seems to go well at this track but clearly needs to have improved again. Williams onboard today and a positive barrier.
3. Forgeress: Freshened after failing on the heavy at the Bool. Previous start average at best at Geelong in listed class. Previous three runs were good enough to be running well here. Blinkers on and well in at weights. Barrier makes it tough to get a very good run though
4. Grey Street: Big drifter last start in harder and found a few too good when 5th behind Whistle Baby. Not exactly very well in at the weights on the last start run either though vs Whistle Baby. Did win here three back and run well two back, but the form around those races hasn’t measured up.
5. Snake Charmer: BM-75 grade winner over in Morphetville and steps up in grade here. First time at the track but clearly going nicely enough to consider.
6. Sullivan Bay: On speed runner that won’t find too much of a contest today. Ran them around slow enough the last start at Moonee Valley, but found a few far too good once again. Personally, think they need to ride the horse faster with a stronger tempo to have a chance here. Over the odds.
7. Baby Don’t Cry: Strange placement. Well up in class after failing to place or go close the last two runs. Back to a firmer track but hard to suggest.
8. Niminypiminy: Just missed for us covering a huge amount of ground last start at Moonee Valley. Inside barrier today but still will go back obviously. Flying right now.
9. Swiss Kiss: Well backed last start at Moonee Valley. Sat 3-wide the trip with no cover but was still very very poor on the day. Struggle to suggest on current form.
10. Foreign Affair: Just missed last startup in Sydney on a Heavy 8 after a very good run 3rd behind Whistle Baby but fairly beaten on the day. Respect. Going well.
11. Forbidden Kisses: First up wasn’t a bad run from out the back when ran home for 5th behind Niminypiminy. Best has been in easier grade and needs to improve.
Comments: Keen to play here. I have to bet around Whistle Baby based on potential race tempo and also one I feel is better late in a tougher race in A Lotta Love. Sullivan Bay gets the charmed run on speed and if back to his best will be very hard to beat.
Confidence 80%
Strategy: Sullivan Bay – 1 unit @ $17.00 to win. A Lotta Love – 1.5 units @ $6.00
Caulfield Race 6 – 1400m – Securecorp Handicap
1. Revolving Door: Well backed first-up at Moonee Valley off a 90-day spell/freshen up. Goes around again today in similar class and maps for a nice run again going up to 1400m. Looks very well suited again as long as Dunn can give him a good ride.
2. Nikitas: Continues to run well without winning the past two starts finding two horses simply too good on the day. Stays at the 1400m and Childs stays on.
3. Throssell: Maher runner that has measured up in the past in easier grade and has a BM-70 grade win on the board. Previous prep placed in Listed grade. Has to have improved during a spell to win here.
4. Yu Long Sheng Hui: Heavy 9 winner first up before failing to fire at Moonee Valley last start. Has to improve.
5. Valliano: Two forgive runs in a row when knuckled two back at Sandown and still ran well and then the last start dislodged the rider at the start. Gets in well with a very low weight and I’m expecting him to be on speed today from the wide barrier. Very keen.
6. Cannot Be Serios: Ran well enough first up and then finished off with a huge run and final 400m. Has to be respected.
8. Enigman: Elmore Cup winner at Bendigo last start in a 25k race. Won like a good type and was backed accordingly two back at course over 1200m. Back to dryer the only issue.
9. Missile Boom: Well beaten the last start on Synthetic in much easier. The previous start was okay but this is still much harder.
11. Toorak Cowboy: Ran nicely the last start back in class at Bendigo but still found one too good. Much harder.
12. My Paisann: Ran a good race 2nd behind Jaminzah at Sandown but the form hasn’t been franked well enough to suggest the win. Does have a G1 5th on record.
13. St Franco: Swan Hill maiden winner and then ran well last start behind My Paisann. Would have to improve.
15. Back to the Bowler: Ran home nicely behind Elegant Queen last start at Sale and Elegant Queen has won since. Low weight but clearly wants further.
Comments: While there are five chances on paper, there are two very clear standouts in this race for me and I’m keen to play.
Confidence 95%
Quaddie Leg One: 1, 2, 5, 6, 8
Strategy: Revolving Door – 3 units @ $5.50. Valliano – 2 units $12.
Caulfield Race 7 – 1400m – Moorookyle Park Handicap
1. Airalign: Horrible first up at Flemington sitting 3 back off the hot speed and just showed nothing. Blinkers first time but I really can’t trust him here.
2. Del Prado: Two runs this prep and hasn’t really been impressing. Last prep was well below most others as well. Hard to see the improvement.
3. Onerous: Two runs this prep and well beaten on both occasions. Struggle to suggest.
4. Powercharged: Four trials heading into this first up run down in Tasmania. Handicap winner last prep in a 60k race on the Synthetic down there and was 4th behind Admiral, Lord Da Vinci and Hellova Street over 1400m the run after. Best is over further but clearly goes well. Just looks a step behind Tshahitis and Powercharged etc.. but down in BM-84 probably well suited.
5. Royal Island: Horrible first up at the bool then not terrible in the Golden Topaz the last start at Swan Hill. Back to dryer a negative today. Never won at track.
6. Here to There: Maher gelding that has failed to ‘fire’ both starts this prep, but both runs have been of a forgiving nature. Three runs back 1400m winner in harder grade in Adelaide. Have to respect.
7. Majestic Duke: Bad first up over 1400m at Flemington coming off a prep where he had 4 runs for no placings. Struggle to suggest.
8. Black Sheep: Weir runner with ability. Best has been seen in recent preps over 1600m but 1400m isn’t out of it. Tough ask first up in this grade of the race but clearly has the ability to win it. Maps well.
11. Nesbo: Last prep won very well on a Heavy 8 over 1600m beating Royal Rapture in this grade then had a bad lameness the next start. Had nearly 400 days off due to this and is slowly coming back into the prep. Better on wetter.
12. Radical: Horrible first up record never placed from 4 first-up runs. Better over further. Hard to suggest.
14. Violent Snow: Got her win this prep two back at Moonee Valley. The last start just didn’t have the closing speed required. Back to 1400m looks a better position today but harder here with more runners.
15. So Does He: Three runs this prep and fairly beaten every time. Not one I think can win.
17. Gervais: First up O’Brien runner with a jockey change. Never won first-up in the past. Last prep winner over 1600m beating a good type in Crocodile Rock and ran well the next two starts without winning. Has to be at his best. Good barrier. Maps well.
Comments: Powercharged is a huge price here and has trialled well coming into this. Here to There can improve and run very well today and is also over the odds. Data Point is a lay at the price for mine while Gervais can run well from a good mapping also.
Confidence 70%
Quaddie Leg Two: 4, 5, 8, 13, 17
Strategy: Back Here to There and Powercharged.
Caulfield Race 8 – 1200m – Ladbrokes Handicap
1. Smackdown: Ran a stunner first up in the Gold Topaz but just missed when Mio Dio claimed him late. Mio Dio has franked the form big time since and Smackdown is flying and a big chance here.
2. Divine Mr Artie: Goes well at this distance in the past. Williams off and Stockdale on with a 3kg claim. First up last prep won in this grade over this distance very very well. Will be very wide late but clearly has the ability to run them down late.
3. Mr Gustavo: Been running up in Sydney without success. First up this prep down at Swan Hill and ran poorly. Can’t see here.
4. Heza Ripper: Horrible the last two starts. Yes, the last start 3-wide no cover and was gone a long way out. Three back ran well behind Miss Gunpowder from out back on the day. Maps nicely.
5. Act of Valour: Ran very well first up behind St Swithuns at Pakenham before winning nicely in Adelaide in a 100k race on Soft 6. Back to 1200m today and looks nicely in. A win won’t shock at all, maps perfectly.
6. In Fairness: Good 2nd to Curragh first up and then won well on a Heavy 8. Went up to the 1600m and was just not well suited with the tempo and then back to 1400m didn’t run well at Echuca. On his best at Ballarat he can run well. Did win over 1200m previous prep. Will lead here and looks well overs if on speed is suited today.
7. Judges: Port Fairy Cup winner to end last prep in a good fashion. First up in the Gold Topaz wasn’t backed and ran accordingly. Needs further to find his very best.
8. Leodoro: Given no chance the last start so forgive run. Stays in Bm-84 grade today and will run well as expected. Needs a better ride.
9. Portman: Shown some form in the past over much further (1300-1600m) in easier class. First up and needs to be at the top of his game to run very well.
10. Zara Bay: Came down from NSW and ran very well at Moonee Valley last start against the bias. Can improve obviously here but this is tougher.
11. Wind Force: Ran very well three back at Caulfield and then okay on heavy the next start at Pakenham but finally got the win last start at Ballarat. Big step up again but clearly has the ability.
12. Mr Optimistic: Flew home two back at MV but fairly beaten the last start. Need to improve onwards and upwards to win this.
13. Hunting Hill: Tough to suggest a place on recent form lines.
Comments: Certainly a nice wide open race on paper. There is a runner here I’m liking at big odds and I think has a fighters chance from on speed in In Fairness.
Confidence 75%
Quaddie Leg Three: 1, 2, 5, 6, 8
Strategy: In Fairness – 0.5 units Each-Way @ $34/$9.00
Caulfield Race 9 – 1800m – Quayclean Handicap
1. Loresho: Group 3 winning French import. 650 days between runs before the first up run over 1400m when needed further clearly. Best over 2500m. Needs further.
2. Onpicalo: Huge run last start when didn’t lead the whole race which is where he is suited and didn’t run it along fast enough. Still kept on keeping on to the line in a race won by swoopers. Huge run. Back to Caulfield perfect.
3. Jacquinot Bay: Horrible the past two starts and hard to see the improvement needed on the last few runs. Getting on in years.
4. Zebrinz: Disappointing the last start at Flemington but was a long way back off a hot tempo. Two back run was good behind Onpicalo at course and distance and will be suited by tempo.
5. Magic Consol: Going from strength to strength this prep with a good 1600m win two back and then last start in Handicap company just beaten on the line at MV. Up to 1800m and can run well again.
6. Murphy’s Delight: Two solid trials but looking for the Hurdles and further. Just needs the run.
7. Longeron: Been finding some races run along just too fast out front in recent times. Won’t get it any easier here and has to improve.
8. Lord Durante: Not the worst run last start at MV when held up for runs but fairly beaten 2.5L. Has to improve.
9. Radipole: Over-raced two back and then not the worst run last start but just fairly beaten. Has to improve but up to 1800m suits.
10. Kaniana: Strongly backed at Swan Hill the last start and ran well for 2nd beaten fairly on the day. Has to improve.
12. Beluga Blue: Didn’t get the best ride ever last star tin easier grade. Step up in class the issue but has the ability.
13. Vassal: Three trials heading into this race. Best seen over further (2400m) last prep when won in BM-84 grade. Has been backed.
14. Freshwater Storm: Low weight and will have the race run to suit today if he is up to fitness. Loves a tough slog.
15. Overberg: Fair run 3rd behind Odeon three back and then two back 2nd to Hursley was good. Fairly beaten the last start in harder class.
16. Scapa Cove: Solid enough run 2nd behind Strike Force. Big step up required to place here again though.
Comments: Very keen to be betting here today on Onpicalo. Will be leading and be hard to get past especially if the rail is as good as expected. Tick Tick Bloom looks overs while Overberg, Magic Consol and a few others have to be respected.
Confidence 90%
Quaddie Leg Four: 2, 4, 5, 11, 15
Strategy: Onpicalo – 2 units Each-Way @ $11/$3.50
